The End of the Decline in Drink Driving in Britain? Andrew Clayton The British Institute of Traffic Education Research, Kent House, Kent Street, Birmingham B5 6QF UK INTRODUCTION In Britain, there are two measures available to assess the role of alcohol in road crashes. Blood alcohol concentrations are available for the majority of fatal crash victims who die within 12 hours of the accident. In addition, estimates are made of the number of accidents involving illegal (>.08g/dl) alcohol levels and the consequent casualties using a method based on breath test data revised by Broughton (1993). Figure 1 shows the actual and polynomial trend lines for the percentage of fatally-injured vehicle drivers with BACs above.08g/dl and the estimated number of serious casualties involving the same BACs. The trend line for fatalities strongly suggests that the reduction achieved during the 1980s finally ceased in the early 1990s and has been replaced by an increasing trend. For serious casualties, the shape of the trend line is similar in that the rate of decline has slowed markedly. Figure 1: Trends in BACs of fatally injured drivers and estimates of numbers o f serious casualties involving illegal (>0.08g/dl) BACs Source: Department of Transport (1996). 12000 10000 < m o> c 8000 ~ 8 I 6000 ^! 4000 1 2000» 1982/83 1983/84 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year p «-F a ta l drivers Serious casualties Poly. (Serious casualties) Poly. (Fatal drivers)*] - 1227 -
TRENDS IN SELF-REPORTED DRINK DRIVING BEHAVIOUR AND ATTITUDES In an attempt to gain some understanding of possible reasons for these changes, an analysis was undertaken of data from the annual tracking studies of the Government's anti drink driving campaigns. Each year, the Department of Transport runs a Christmas anti Drink Driving Campaign that runs for about three weeks. Since 1979, the campaign has been evaluated by pre- and postcampaign interviews. Comparisons of the pre-campaign data, obtained in November each year, provides some indication of trends in self-reported drinking and drink driving behaviour as well as attitudes towards drink driving issues. The national interview sample consisted of males aged 18 and over, who drank away from home and who also drove a car or van. The minimum sample size was 485. Results are weighted by age and social class to represent the profile of men who both drive and drink out of the home. In addition, weighting factors are applied to the day of week of the interview as this might affect the degree of drinking that occurred in the last seven days. The same market research company (Research International) has undertaken all evaluations since 1979. Drinking habits Trends in self-reported drinking habits have been generally downward (Table 1). Since 1980, the percentage of men who drank at all during the week prior to being interviewed has declined from 82% to 74% (Table 1). The decline in the percentage who drank 6+ units on a single occasion in the previous week has been much less (42%-39%). (A unit of alcohol is about 8g ethanol.) For both measures, the mean annual change has been greater during the period 1990-1995 than during the period 1979-1990. Drinking and driving habits Unlike the trends in drinking habits, the observed trends suggest that much of the reduction in drink driving occurred during the 1980s, particularly amongst heavier drinkers (Table 1) Selfreporting of driving after drinking any amount declined by an average of 1.8% pa during the period 1980-1990. Since then, the mean annual decline has been 1.2% pa. Self-reporting of driving after drinking 6+ units declined by an average of 1% pa during the same period. Since 1990, the decline has averaged 0.2%pa. The proportion of 6+ drinkers - 1228 -
who drove after drinking 6+ units declined from 31% in 1979 to 12% in 1990. In 1995, the proportion was 10%. Table 1: Trends in self-reported drinking and drink driving 1979-1996 Self-reported behaviour in past Percentage of all Mean Annual 7 days. respondents Change 1979 1990 1995 1979-90 1990-95 Drank at all 82 79 74-0.3-1.0 Drank 6+ units at all 42* 41 39-0.1-0.4 Drank and drove at all 49 31 25-1.8-1.2 Drank and drove after 6+ units 15* 5 4-1.0-0.2 Proportion of 6+ drinkers who drove after 6+ units * Data available from 1980 only. 31 12 10-1.7-0.4 Attitudes towards drink driving Several of the questions used in the interviews have remained the same since the early 1980s. It is therefore possible to study the trends in the responses to such statements over a period of up to 15 years. For the purposes of this analysis, three measures are reported: the percentage of respondents agreeing with a particular statement in the initial year (1979 or 1980) it was used in the survey; the percentage agreeing in the November 1990 survey; and the percentage agreeing in the 1995 survey. The mean annual changes during the two periods initial year- 1990 and 1990-1995 were then calculated. Finally, the ratio of the mean annual changes in the 1990-1995 and the earlier period was calculated (Table 2). It is clear that the major changes in attitude occurred during the 1980s. By comparison, the annual rate of change since 1990 has been much slower and, in one case, has moved in the opposite direction. DISCUSSION These results suggest that the trends in illegal alcohol levels amongst fatal and serious casualties were mirrored by broadly similar changes in the attitudes, self-reported drinking and drink driving behaviour of respondents interviewed in the annual tracking surveys. - 1229 -
If, in fact, the changes in illegal alcohol levels are caused, at least in part, by changes in attitudes and self-reported behaviour, then the question arises, why have such changes occurred? Any hypotheses must be speculative as the underlying mechanisms are far from clear. Table2: Tracking surveys: trends in responses to attitude statements Statement Initial year % agreeing Mean annual change Ratio Initial year 1990 1995 Initial year - 1990 1991-1995 It's difficult to avoid some drinking and driving if you are going to have any kind of social life. W hen you're out drinking it can spoil your evening if you know you have got to drive home. The police are now catching more drinking drivers. I m yself try to stop other people from drinking too much when they are going to drive. If you feel alright to drive then it is probably quite safe, even if you have drunk a bit over the limit. Drinking a little bit over the legal limit does not really make me more likely to have an accident. If I drive carefully after drinking, I am not likely to get caught by the police. I think people who drink and drive should be sent to prison. People I know seem to criticise drinking drivers more often nowadays. 1978 32 16 14-1.3-0.4 0.3 1979 61 29 27-2.9-0.4 0.1 1984 64 52 51-2.0-0.2 0.1 1980 60 77 77 1.7 0.0 0.0 1979 59 64 68 0.5 0.8 1.8 1987 18 15 14-1.0-0.2 0.2 1979 33 21 19-1.1-0.4 0.4 1980 39 23 21-1.6-0.4 0.3 1978 29 66 72 3.1 1.2 0.4 1983 58 82 78 3.4-0.8-0.2-1230-
One possibility is that there have been no major drink driving initiatives in Britain since the introduction of evidential breath testing in 1983. The Department of Transport has run twice yearly publicity campaigns (Summer and Christmas) and, on several occasions, their Christmas campaign has been augmented by additional publicity from other organisations such as The Portman Group. In addition, driver awareness has been heightened by a number of television documentaries and consumer programmes as well as by the activities of groups such as the Campaign against Drink-Driving (CADD). It is unlikely, however, that such campaigns and other initiatives create the same level of awareness and informal discussion of drink driving issues as a major legislative programme perceived by drivers as having a direct impact upon their way of life. Expressed in another way, the absence of new government initiatives may lead to a perception that drink driving, as a social problem, has gone away, leading to a level of complacency amongst drivers. In recent years, media attention on health and social problems has focussed on issues such as drug use amongst young people, child abuse, and BSE. W ays must be found to alter the balance of attention if further progress in reducing drink driving in Britain is to be achieved. R E FE R E N C E S Broughton, J (1993). The actual number of non-fatal drink-drive accidents. Crowthorne: Transport Research Laboratory. Report PR40. Departm ent of Transport (1996). Road accidents Great Britain 1995. London: HMSO. A C K N O W L ED G EM EN TS The author gratefully acknowledges the assistance of the Department of Transport in the provision of the data used in this paper. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Department of Transport. - 1231 -