Swine Flu Media Briefing 13 January 2011
Overview Systems for monitoring swine flu Pattern of flu in Northern Ireland Updated swine flu deaths Vaccination programme
Systems for Monitoring Flu Special arrangements in 2009 pandemic Detailed data on deaths Regular media briefings Flu 2010 normal arrangements Published weekly Flu Bulletin, with press release & media interviews Last week public & media interest Formally asked Trusts to inform us of all swine flu deaths Publish confirmed swine flu deaths weekly, media briefings
Combined consultation rate per 100 000 population Number of detections Number of New Flu Cases 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2. Rate of increase in new confirmed cases of swine flu per week has slowed 1. Mid-November start to see small increase 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 Week 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Flu A Flu B Flu A (HINI)v Combined Consultation Rate
Combined rate per 100 000 population GP Consultation Rates for Flu & Flu-like Illness 300 280 260 1. GP consultation rates in normal hours has increased by 41% 240 220 200 180 160 2. Last week were similar to 2008; this week similar to 2009 levels 140 120 Baseline threshold 100 80 60 40 20 0 40 4142 43 4445 46 4748 49 5051 52 53 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 1213 14 1516 17 1819 20 2122 23 2425 26 2728 29 3031 32 3334 35 3637 38 39 Week 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Baseline threshold
GP Consultation Rates for Flu & Flu-like Illness Outside Normal Hours 160.0 'flu/fli Call Rate Total Call Rate 1,400.0 140.0 120.0 GP consultation rates outside normal hours has decreased by 17% 1,200.0 1,000.0 100.0 800.0 80.0 600.0 60.0 40.0 400.0 20.0 200.0-40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 12 Week 3 45 6 78 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 Flu/FLI Rate Total Calls Rate -
Age-specific rate per 100 000 GP Consultation Rates by Age 400 350 300 250 1. Modest increase in 15-64 yr olds compared to last year Around 300-375/100,000 this year Around 200-270 last year 15-44 yrs 45-64 yrs 200 150 100 50 2. Significant decrease in children compared to last year Around 150/100,000 this year Around 400 for 0-4 yr olds last year Around 600 for 5-14 yr olds last year 0 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 Week 0-4yrs 5-14yrs 15-44yrs 45-64yrs 65yrs and over
Who is Already Immune? Age Group (years) 5-14 60-70% 15-24 40-50% 25-44 30-40% % With H1N1 Antibodies Source: Hardelid et al, Health Protection Agency, 2010 0-5 year olds were vaccinated last year 38% accepted the vaccine 75% of children in special schools accepted the vaccine
Weekly Registered Deaths Proportion of Deaths with Keywords Registered Deaths from Selected Respiratory Infections 175 150 125 100 Deaths due to influenza, bronchitis, bronchiolitis, pneumonia and proportion of all deaths with keywords mentioned by week of registration, 2009-10 1. Significant increase similar to last year Registered deaths with keywords Proportion of all registered deaths with keywords 75% 60% 45% 75 30% 50 25 15% 0 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 2009 Week 2010 0%
Summary of NI Swine Flu Deaths this Year & Last Year This yr Last yr Total %Total Deaths* Person had an underlying condition 14 18 32 94 Person did not have an underlying condition 2 0 2 6 Being confirmed 1 1 2 N/A Total 17 19 36 * % of Total swine flu deaths for this year and last year where information on underlying conditions has been confirmed
Comparison of Swine Flu Deaths in NI & the UK in this Year & Last Year % People who died from swine flu who had an underlying condition % People who died from swine flu who did not have an underlying condition % People admitted to hospital who had an underlying condition % People admitted to hospital who did not have an underlying condition NI UK Last yr This yr Last yr This yr 100% 87% 67% 77% 0% 13% 23% 33% 49% 55% 51% 45%
Summary Messages 13 Jan High levels of flu and flu-like illness Fewer children affected compared to 2009 This mainly affecting 15-64 yr olds; People with underlying conditions remain at much greater risk People without underlying conditions are still affected Rate of increase in new cases has slowed Current pattern is similar to UK
Vaccination UK Vaccination policy is set by Departments of Health & is based on advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination & Immunisation Goal is to protect those at most risk of flu-related complications Targeted therefore at people in high-risk groups PHA does not determine the policy but will implement any change in vaccination policy
Vaccine Uptake Rates are Higher Here NI England 2010 Flu season to end Nov 2010 Under 65s at-risk 56% 42% 65+ 67% 67% 2009 Pandemic to end March 2010 Under 65s at-risk 80% 52% 65+ 77% 72%
Vaccine Availability Sufficient vaccine to protect all at-risk people from swine flu 414,000 flu vaccine doses already distributed to GPs and Trusts with sufficient swine flu vaccine available for any remaining at-risk patients GPs will continue to use the seasonal flu vaccine that they may still have Reorders will be filled from the swine flu vaccine supplies