Expert Models for Decision Makers TM Creme Global Reformulation Project under FDII s Health Strategy: Methodology

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G L O B A L Expert Models for Decision Makers TM Creme Global Reformulation Project under FDII s Health Strategy: Methodology Dr. Aileen Connolly Dietary Intake Specialist 11 th September 2014

The Creme Global Reformulation Project Creme Global Overview Dietary Intake Assessments Investigate the impact of product reformulation on the Irish market - Dietary intake assessments using 2 time points - Outputs

Overview The Creme Global Reformulation Project Creme Global Dietary Intake Assessments Investigate the impact of product reformulation on the Irish market - Dietary intake assessments using 2 time points - Outputs

The Creme Global Reformulation Project Food and Drink Industry Ireland s (FDII) Health Strategy Aim: Investigate what impact reformulated products in the Irish market have on Irish consumers diet and health

The Creme Global Reformulation Reduction in: Project (1) Sugar (2) Calories (3) Saturated fats (4) Total fats (5) Salt

The Creme Global Reformulation Project Reduction in: Decrease incidence of: (1) Sugar (2) Energy (3) Saturated fats (4) Total fats (5) Sodium (1) Obesity (2) CHD (3) High blood pressure (4) Cholesterol

The Creme Global Reformulation Project 2005 2012

Overview The Creme Global Reformulation Project Creme Global Dietary Intake Assessments Investigate the impact of product reformulation on the Irish market - Dietary intake assessments using 2 time points - Outputs

Creme Global Predictive Intake Modelling High performance cloud-computing & data analytics Creme Nutrition Investigate Reformulation - Dietary Intake Assessments - 2 time points (2005 and 2012)

Overview The Creme Global Reformulation Project Creme Global software Dietary Intake Assessments Investigate the impact of product reformulation on the Irish market - Dietary intake assessments using 2 time points - Outputs

Dietary Intake Assessments (1) Amount of Food (from Food Consumption Data) Dietary Intakes (2) Concentration of Nutrient (from Branded Food Sources)

Dietary Intake Assessments (1) Amount of Food (from Food Consumption Data) Dietary Intakes (2) Concentration of Nutrient (from Branded Food Sources)

Irish Universities Nutrition Alliance (IUNA)* National Dietary Surveys Irish Dietary Surveys (IUNA) Name Year Population Methods National Children s Food Survey (NCFS) National Teenagers Food Survey (NTFS) National Adult Nutrition Survey (NANS) National Pre-School Nutrition Survey (NPNS) 2003-2004 594 children (5 12 years) 2005-2006 441 teenagers (13 17 years) 2008-2010 1500 adults (18 78 years) 2010-2011 500 pre-schoolers (1 4 years) Regionally representative, randomly selected, 7-day weighed food diary Regionally representative, randomly selected, 7-day semi-weighed food diary Regionally representative, randomly selected, 4-day semi-weighed food diary Regionally representative, randomly selected, 4-day weighed food diary *IUNA: www.iuna.net

Irish Dietary Survey Data 14298 Energy (kcal): 37 g/100g Vitamin C: 0.054 g/100g Fat: 0.1g/100g Protein: 1.1 g/100g 1271 Energy (kcal): 243 g/100g Calcium: 0.11 g/100g Starch: 47.5g/100g Protein: 8.8 g/100g 4673 Subject Data Individual foods Food Codes Energy (kcal): 41 g/100g Carbohydrate: 10.9g/100g Iron: 0.03g/100g Calcium: 0.005 g/100g Nutrient data per Food Code 68 Food Groups (E.g. Citrus Fruits, White Bread & Rolls, Carbonated Beverages)

Dietary Intake Assessments (1) Amount of Food (from Food Consumption Data) Dietary Exposure (2) Concentration of Nutrient (from Branded Food Sources)

Nutrient Data FDII Members

Reformulated Nutrient Data FDII Members

Baseline & Reformulation Data Data forwarded to Creme Global by the FDII Members: Product Name & Description Unit Size (g) Sales Data in Units and Volume (2005 and 2012) Market Share of Product (2005 and 2012) Total Fat Content per 100g (2005 and 2012) Saturated Fat Content per 100g (2005 and 2012) Energy Content (kcal) per 100g (2005 and 2012) Sodium Content per 100g (2005 and 2012) Sugar Content per 100g (2005 and 2012)

Baseline & Reformulation Data

Reformulation Data 12 Pre-Defined Food Categories Developed from the original 68 IUNA food categories Creme Global Reformulation Project Food Categories 1. Milk & Dairy Products 2. Spreading Fats 3. Meat, Fish & Egg Dishes 4. Vegetables 5. Potatoes excl. crisps 6. Bread 7. Breakfast Cereals 8. Rice, Pasta & Cereals 9. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 10. Savoury Snacks 11. Beverages excl. milk 12. Soups, Sauces & Miscellaneous Foods

Food Categories Milk & Dairy Products Whole milk Low fat, skimmed and fortified milks Other milks (e.g. processed milks) Creams Cheeses Yoghurts Ice-creams Milk puddings (e.g. rice pudding)

Market Share Data Proportion of the market the products account for Both baseline and post-reformulation Increases accuracy and validity of dietary intake results, realistic impact Market share of product applied to pre-defined food categories

Customisable Reports Comparison of outcomes and limit analysis Creme Nutrition Nutrient intake analysis Food intake analysis Contributing foods to nutrient intake Flexible food grouping tools National Food Consumption Data & Food Databases Trends Intakes by population types Market Share & Brand Loyalty Probabilistic or Deterministic Sociodemographics Biomarker Data Food replacement Portion size calculation and control Nutrient reduction or fortification Reformulation Combined Scenarios

Customisable Reports Comparison of outcomes and limit analysis Creme Nutrition Nutrient intake analysis Food intake analysis Contributing foods to nutrient intake Flexible food grouping tools National Food Consumption Data & Food Databases Trends Intakes by population types Market Share & Brand Loyalty Probabilistic or Deterministic Sociodemographics Biomarker Data Food replacement Portion size calculation and control Nutrient reduction or fortification Reformulation Combined Scenarios

Overview The Creme Global Reformulation Project Creme Global software Dietary Intake Assessments Investigate the impact of product reformulation on the Irish market - Dietary intake assessments using 2 time points - Outputs

Creme Nutrition 1. Subjects Table 2. Food Groups Table 3. Consumption Table 4. Nutrient Composition Table

(1) Subjects Table Creme Nutrition For illustrative purposes only

(2) Consumption Table Creme Nutrition For illustrative purposes only

(3) Food Groups Table Creme Nutrition For illustrative purposes only

Creme Nutrition (4) Nutrient Composition Table For illustrative purposes only

Creme Nutrition (1) Amount of Food (from Food Consumption Data) Dietary Intakes (2) Concentration of Nutrient (from Branded Food Sources)

Step 1: Applying Baseline Data (2005) FDII Member Baseline Data (2005) Creme Nutrition

Step 1: Baseline Nutrient Intake Assessments Apply 2005 nutrient data (Baseline) Market share % applied to each product within the pre-defined food groups For example: Product X has a 35% market share of the Milk & Dairy Products food group

Step 1: Baseline Nutrient Intake Assessments 2005 Nutrient & Market Share Data

Baseline Nutrient Intake Results Energy Total Fat Saturated Fat Sugar Sodium Toddlers Children Teenagers Adults Results: Daily Intakes in kcal/g/mg/day 12 Food Groups

How will our Baseline Results look? Creme Global Reformulation ADULTS: Baseline Daily Intakes Food Categories Energy (kcal/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Saturated Fat (mg/d) Sugar (mg/d) Sodium (mg/d) Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 1. Milk & Dairy Products 154.9 201.55 3023.8 15111.7 2175.5 12045.3 4556.1 25185.1 42.5 235.4 2. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 153.1 311.7 2456.8 12117.8 1260.05 6734.9 3332.5 18598.5 44.87 228.2 Example Results: For illustrative purposes only

Step 2: Applying Reformulated Product Data (2012) FDII Member Reformulated Data (2012) Creme Nutrition

Step 2: Reformulation Nutrient Intake Assessments Inputting reformulated product nutrient data (2012) Applying % market share to the reformulated products

Step 2: Reformulation Nutrient Intake Assessments 2012 Nutrient & Market Share Data

How will our Reformulation Results look? Creme Global Reformulation ADULTS: Baseline Daily Intakes Food Categories Energy (kcal/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 1. Milk & Dairy Products 154.9 201.55 3023.8 15111.7 2. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 153.1 311.7 2456.8 12117.8 Example Results: For illustrative purposes only

How will our Reformulation Results look? Creme Global Reformulation ADULTS: Baseline Daily Intakes Food Categories Energy (kcal)/d Total Fat (mg/d) Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 1. Milk & Dairy Products 154.9 201.55 3023.8 15111.7 2. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 153.1 311.7 2456.8 12117.8 Creme Global Reformulation ADULTS: Baseline & Reformulated Daily Intakes Food Categories 2005 2012 2005 2012 Energy (kcal/d) Energy (mg/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 1. Milk & Dairy Products 154.9 201.55 127.89 147.3 3023.8 15111.7 2631.14 10074.6 2. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 214.9 374.8 178.3 297.1 2456.8 12117.8 1674.2 10495.2

How will our Reformulation Results look? Creme Global Reformulation ADULTS: Baseline Daily Intakes Food Categories Energy (kcal/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 1. Milk & Dairy Products 154.9 201.55 3023.8 15111.7 2. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 153.1 311.7 2456.8 12117.8 Creme Global Reformulation ADULTS: Baseline & Reformulated Daily Intakes Food Categories 2005 2012 2005 2012 Energy (kcal/d) Energy (kcal/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Total Fat (mg/d) Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 Mean P97.5 1. Milk & Dairy Products 154.9 201.55 127.89 147.3 3023.8 15111.7 2631.14 10074.6 2. Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary 214.9 374.8 178.3 297.1 2456.8 12117.8 1674.2 10495.2 17.4% reduction in Energy (kcal/d) from Milk & Dairy Products Example Results: For illustrative purposes only 12.9% reduction in Total Fat (mg/d) from Milk & Dairy Products

Step 2: Reformulation Nutrient Intake Assessments Determine the % reduction of the key nutrients in the Irish food market Identify the actual reduction in average daily intakes of these nutrients among Irish consumer groups Addition of market share data

% Nutrient Reduction: Baseline vs Reformulated Product Daily Intake Results Example: Biscuits, Cakes & Confectionary Example Results: For illustrative purposes only

% Nutrient Reduction Based on Sales Units and tonnes sold 2005: 230,000 x 200g units sold 17g of saturated fat per 100g 7.82 tonnes of saturated fat 2012: 240,000 x 200g units sold 13g of saturated fat per 100g 6.24 tonnes of saturated fat For illustrative purposes only

Reformulated Product Dietary Intake Results Quantifying the reformulation efforts by Irish food industry Assessing the real impact of consuming reformulated products among Irish populations Accurate and validated dietary intake analyses using Creme Nutrition

Creme Global Find us at: www.cremeglobal.com

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