FERTILITY DECLINE AND PUBLIC POLICIES TO ADDRESS POPULATION RIGHTS: PERSPECTIVE FROM LATIN AMERICA Suzana Cavenaghi ENCE/IBGE, Brazil United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Fertility, Changing Population Trends and Development: Challenges and Opportunities for the Future Population Division, United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs New York 21-22 October 2013
OVERVIEW Population growth, urbanization and fertility in Latin America 1. Trends in level of fertility 2. Trends in age-specific fertility rates 3. Adolescent and youth fertility 4. Distribution by parity 5. Considerations on contraception Policy implications of low fertility
POPULATION GROWTH, URBANIZATION AND FERTILITY IN LATIN AMERICA Population In 1950 population 167.9 million; In 1975 population 324.7 million, In 2020 population 661.7 million In 2050 stabilizes in 751 million 25 years to double between 1950 and 1975 and will likely take 45 years to double once again Rural population (Urban transition) 1950 98.1 million (60% of total population) 1990 31.4 million (30% of total population) 2050 about 11% of total population From 1950 to 2050, total population will multiply by 4.4 Urban population is expected to grow 9.4 times. The population explosion already happened. The urban population explosion already happened and will intensify.
POPULATION GROWTH, URBANIZATION AND FERTILITY IN LATIN AMERICA Population dynamics are no longer seen as an obstacle to development and the new age structure has been transformed into a window of opportunity, since the average demographic dependency ratio for the region is on the way to reaching its lowest level in the period 2020-2025. The decline in fertility, together with greater female autonomy, has banished the so-called Malthusian ghosts of the population explosion in the LAC region (it already happened!) Demographic conditions have been a stimulus for economic growth, while the greater participation of women in public life has made both a microeconomic and macroeconomic contribution to development. Although many segments of the region s population still have high rates of unwanted pregnancies and lack access to modern contraceptive methods, high fertility is no longer a general feature of the region. But.. Let s see some details.
Fertility level in Latin America Total fertility by selected countries, Latin America, 1950-2015 8.00 7.00 6.00 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Guatemala 8.00 7.00 6.00 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Dominican Republic 5.00 5.00 El Salvador TFR 4.00 3.00 Haiti TFR 4.00 3.00 Mexico 2.00 Honduras 2.00 Nicaragua 1.00 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 Bolivia (Plurinationa l State of) Paraguay 1.00 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 Panama Colombia
Fertility level in Latin America Total fertility by selected countries, Latin America, 1950-2015 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Costa Rica 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN TFR 4.00 TFR 4.00 Argentina 3.00 Chile 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 Brazil 1.00 Uruguay 0 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 Cuba 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
Fertility level in Latin America Fertility age structure by selected countries, Latin America, for two periods, 1960-1965 and 2010-2015 35.0 Cuba 35.0 30.0 1960-1965 Dominican Republic Haiti 30.0 2010-2015 25.0 Costa Rica El Salvador 25.0 20.0 Guatemala Honduras 20.0 15.0 10.0 Mexico Nicaragua Panama Argentina 15.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 Bolivia (Plurinational State of) Brazil 0.0 0.0 Chile Colombia
Brazil 15-19 years older fertility and % of mothers Country Ecuador Mexico Panama Dominican Republic Uruguay Venezuela Census year % motherhood 15-19 ASFR 15-19 1991 11.5 81.7 2000 14.8 93.3 2010 11.8 70.0 1990 13.5 92.7 2001 16.3 102.2 2010 17.0 101.6 1990 10.4-2000 12.1 82.2 2010 12.4 80.2 1990 16.1 109.7 2000 17.4 107.1 2010 15.4 95.9 2002 16.7 109.2 2010 19.7 116.3 1985 8.4 62.4 1995 13.9 74.2 2011 9.5 55.8 1990 13.8 111.6 2001 14.9 100.5 2011 14.6 82.9 Source: Rodriguez and Cavenaghi (2013) estimated from microdata from Demographic Censuses.
Latin America: motherhood percentage by age groups 15-19, 15-17 and 18-19, around 1990, 2000 and 2010. 30.0 25.0 20.0 (%) 15.0 10.0 1990 2000 2010 5.0 0.0 15-19 15-17 18-19 Age groups
The role of education on adolescent Fertility Education remains a critical factor to decrease motherhood at young ages in the region. Advances in the educational system and, mainly the large improvements in the proportion of women attaining higher levels of education, can explain most of the declines in fertility in the last 20 years, but the effects vary across countries. Some explicit policies, such as the creation of the Friendly health services for adolescents and youth (http://planandinopea.org/) are yet not sufficient to reduce youth fertility (Ecuador) In the future, with the expected improvements in education, mainly among women, a decrease in fertility rates is expected among those aged 15 to 19 years and older. Other policies directed to reduce unwanted adolescent fertility or indirect policies, such as continued policies for STI prevention, will have some effects in the level of fertility, bringing total fertility to lower levels in the near future. It is not reasonable to think that reductions in adolescent fertility will reverse in the future (UN projections).
Parity distribution in Latin America Percentage of women aged 45 to 49 at the census date by number of children ever born for selected countries, circa 2010. 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 0.0 Uruguay 2010 Brazil 2010 Costa Rica 2011 Colombia 2005 Panama 2010 Ecuador 2010 Mexico 2010 Peru 2007
Parity distribution by education Projected percentage of women aged 40 to 44 at census date by number of children ever born. 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 Brazil, 2010 0 1 2 40% - zero or one 35% - two 10.0 5.0 0.0 Total No schooling and basic incomplete Basic complete and high incomple High complete and superior incomple Superior complete 3 4 5 20% - three 5% average of 4.5 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Panama, 2010 Total No schooling and basic Basic incomplete and High high complete incomple and superior Superior incomplecomplete 0 1 2 3 4 5 TF=1.78 Does this indicate a path to a third demographic transition the retreat from childbearing?
Total fertility by education TFR 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Total fertility for selected countries by level of education, Latin America, circa 2005. Low education Medium education High education
Total fertility by income groups Brazil, 2000 and 2010 TFR 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Total fertility according to categories of average household income per capita, Brazil, 2000 and 2010. 4.6 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.8 2000 2010 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 No > ¼ > ½ > 1 > 2 > 3 > 5 2.4 1.9 income to to to to to or Total up to ¼ ½ m.w. 1 m.w. 2 m.w. 3 m.w. 5 m.w. more per capita household mininal wage
Access to Contraception Contraceptive practice in Latin America and the Caribbean occurred even in the absence of laws and regulations that could guarantee the rights to universal access to reproductive health. Restrictions on types of contraceptive methods available in different countries High concentration on the market for its provision. Common in all countries: reproductive planning has always been closely linked to maternal health care and not women's and men's reproductive needs. The region is in urgent need of good policies that can assure access to contraceptive methods that are most suitable for each age group and life cycle. Still need comprehensive reproductive health, including young people, men, and poorest population. Although current regulations might explicitly include these population groups in the letter of the law, in practice this is far from reality. Still high unwanted and misted pregnancies and births very high unsafe induced abortion
Policy implications of low fertility Fertility decline has an impact on economic development and gender relations. The continued decline in fertility opens opportunities and challenges. In 10 years reduction of 58 million poor people in Latin America, There have been also advances in education, especially in case of women who even reversed the gender gap in education (need policies here!). The changes in age structure facilitated the increase of labour force participation rate, especially for women. A continued decrease in total fertility (even to lowest-low levels) will reduce the demographic dependency ratios of children and adolescents and will open opportunity for an increase of the demographic bonus (if well used) This would enable for further advances in education and the reduction of unemployment and informality in the labor market, without substantially reducing the availability of manpower. Enormous challenges that have to be faced with an ageing population. However, welfare policies need to seek actuarial balance (such as increasing the minimum retirement age) and should not plan pro-natalist policies to solve the intergenerational flow of resources and wealth. Also, other challenges such as health care, also must be addressed within a framework of rights, and avoiding gender-biased policies
Concluding The Cairo ICPD Programme of Action was clear in its view of women as underprivileged and discriminated members of society and its consequent defense of women s empowerment and autonomy; Latin America has long been perceived as a region marked by machismo and as heir to a form of social organization dominated by patriarchal behaviour. This structure is generally associated with conservative values, wherein men oppose women's rights and women s pursuit of things that fall outside of traditional gender roles. Yet there are clear signs of breakthroughs in gender equality in the region; These have had effects on fertility decline and will continue to bring fertility to very low levels, as opposed to some regions in India, where women still have very low rates of labour force participation, and it is even decreasing recently; As far as reproduction is concerned in Latin America, women are still a long way from sharing the responsibilities of bringing up children equally with men; Bridging this gap involves giving full access to sexual and reproductive health and rights to young people and bringing men on board as full co-participants in both childbearing and childrearing..
Thanks! Suzana Cavenaghi ENCE: (+55 21) 2142 4689 suzana_cavenaghi@uol.com.br