RISK ALLOCATION IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS Hans Dekker President, Infrastructure 2016 Fluor Corporation ECRI Amsterdam 02016
Agenda Fluor Profile Infrastructure Business Line Tappan Zee Bridge New York (video) Purple Line Project Maryland USA Cost and Contingency Planning Questions 2016 Fluor Corporation 1
Fluor Profile A leading Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, Construction and Maintenance Company Integrated solutions delivery model Long term global presence and mega project experience Diversified across energy, industrial, maintenance (MMAI), and government markets Full life cycle capabilities from early conceptual studies, to EPFC, on through to Sustaining Capital phases of projects 2016 Fluor Corporation 2
Fluor Transformation 2011 2012 2013 2015 Evaluate Strategic Framework BTI Study Implement Restructure Cascade Construction Fabrication Supply Chain 2016 Fluor Corporation 3 2015 + Execute One Fluor Integrated Solutions Growth
Infrastructure Business Line Fluor is an industry leader in delivering large, complex infrastructure projects. We are at the forefront of private development of public infrastructure around the world We have a proven track record of implementing transportation projects timely, that offer lower life cycle costs and considerably less risk to the public sector. Fluor have executed 11 PPP/DBFM projects in last 15 years with a total capex of more than $12.5 billion.
Core Markets & Regions Core Markets Roads Bridges Rail Commercial Core Regions North America Western Europe Middle East Asia Pacific
Infrastructure Project Highlights Disney China A9 Amsterdam P3 Sharq Crossing Saudi Landbridge
Project Highlights Denver Eagle P3 Tappan Zee Bridge SF Bay Bridge Dallas Horseshoe
Infrastructure Addressable Market by Region $450 $400 $350 $300 Billion USD $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Asia Pacific (excluding China) Africa Middle East Europe North America $0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Fluor Internal estimates based on various information sources including IHS, EIA, SNL, WMI, GAO, Thompson Reuters, Bloomberg, company and other data.
Infrastructure Market Overview Summary Transportation design firms are reporting the best market conditions in years in the U.S. due to Fixing America s Surface Transportation (FAST) legislation. Several U.S. states passed public private partnership (P3) enabling legislation in the quarter. Canadian P3 funding and projects continue to move forward. The impact of Brexit has created political and economic uncertainty in the U.K. and more broadly throughout Europe. The Middle East has a flow of contract awards for infrastructure projects however we are seeing delays in this market generally. Asia Pacific infrastructure construction continues to move at a rapid pace. Australia added six projects to its national priority list. 2016 Fluor Corporation 9
Transport infrastructure investment to 2025 Africa Middle East FSU/CEE Latin America Western Europe US & Canada Asia Pacific Cumulative transport infrastructure investment to 2025 Transportation infrastructure investment is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 5% globally from 2014 to 2025. Asia Pacific is forecasted to be the largest growth market. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Cumulative transport infrastructure investment ($trn) Roads Rail Ports Airports Source: Oxford Economics, PWC report 2016 Fluor Corporation 10
North America infrastructure market has large growth potential Infrastructure main target markets Design Build and P3 projects in Road, Bridge and Transit Key growth market Federal Fixing America s Surface Transportation (FAST) act signed on Dec 4th 2015 Authorized $305 billion over fiscal year 2016 to 2020 for highway, rail, etc. First long term authorization act in a decade, provides 5 years of funding certainty for infrastructure investment There are 33 US States that have enabling legislation for PPP (P3) in transport sector 2016 is record year with combined USD 7.86bn capex Purple Line and LaGuardia Airport account for USD 6bn of that amount Canadian government is committed to deficit spending to advance infra projects 2016 Fluor Corporation 11
United States P3 Overview 2016 Fluor Corporation 12
Infrastructure - Prospects and Opportunities 2016 Fluor Corporation 13
The Purple Line Project The Project involves the development, design, construction, financing, operation and maintenance of a 16.2 mile light rail transit line that extends from Bethesda to New Carrollton, providing direct connections to four branches of the Washington Metropolitan Transit Authority Metrorail system as well as all three Maryland Area Regional Commuter rail lines and Amtrak s Northeast Corridor There will be twenty-one permanent stations and approximately 55-64 light rail vehicles ( LRVs ) Construction Cost Approx. $2.25 billion Delivery Method DBFOM PPP Payment Progress Payments during Construction Lump Sum Revenue Service Availability Payment Lump Sum Final Completion Payment Availability Payments during operations Timing Construction: 2015-2021 Operations: 2021-2051
Consortium Overview Project Structure
Flow Down of Obligations 2016 Fluor Corporation 16
Risk categories Project Risks Site Design, construction and commissioning Hard and soft facility maintenance Asset ownership Corporate and legal risks Financial and market risks Legislative and government policy risk Environmental risk Other risks (planned and unplanned!) 2016 Fluor Corporation 17
Significant Design Build Risks Labor PLA with selected trades for self perform work Political/Public Engage and inform stakeholders Risk identification/mitigation process Testing and Commissioning Tunnel Systems Utility Relocations 2016 Fluor Corporation 18
Significant Operate and Maintain Risks Availability transport infrastructure 20hrs/day, 7 days a week, 7.5 minutes headway Provide Alternate Bus Service in the event of Service Interruptions Includes stations Availability Light Rail Vehicles Staffing Safety Coordination Regional Third Parties like University of Maryland, WMATA, MARC, Prince George s County, Montgomery County, various utilities 2016 Fluor Corporation 19
Cost and Contingency Planning Unknown Behavioural Patterns Uncertain Technical Upgrades Macro-economic Factors Claims and Disputes Final Cost Variations Certain Original Scope 2016 Fluor Corporation 20
Emerging Risks: Geotechnical Geotechnical risk Relief Relief depending on proximity of sample information provided by client No relief; Contractor responsibility for site conditions Limited boring information provided if any Inability to perform own survey during bid process Competent engineer should have known better 2016 Fluor Corporation 21
Emerging Risks: Notices Notices Behavioral Condition president Sufficiently informative, cause and consequent Cannot provide for that in contract Proactively require the project team to confirm they have considered notifiable events and issued all relevant notices and do so regularly. Do not accept nil return Relationships should be two way 2016 Fluor Corporation 22
Questions 风险 2016 Fluor Corporation 23