HIV replication and selection of resistance: basic principles 26th International HIV Drug Resistance and Treatment Strategies Workshop Douglas Richman 6 November 2017
CLINICAL DATA DURING SIXTEEN WEEKS OF INH THERAPY 180 PRE RX WEEKS OF TREATMENT 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 BODY WT. 90 100 TEMP 98.6 ROENTGEN CHANGES GAFFKY COUNT 70 X V ++ + IMPR. NO CHANGE WORSE 200 SPUTUM WT. 100 (GM) SPUTUM CULT. ISONIAZID SENSITIVE 0 RESISTANT INT HIGH ISONIAZID MG./DAY SL PRE RX 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+ 4+ 3+ 150 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Coates et al, The Clinical Significance... N Engl J Med 248:1085, 1953 0
100 INH SUSCEPTIBILITY OF ISOLATES FROM PATIENTS WITH PULMONARY TB TREATED WITH INH MONOTHERAPY NEGATIVE 80 PERCENTAGE OF CASES 60 40 SENSITIVE RESISTANT SLIGHT INTERMEDIATE 20 HIGH 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 WEEKS OF TREATMENT Coates et al, The Clinical Significance... N Engl J Med 248:1083, 1953
PREEXISTENCE OF DRUG RESISTANT MUTANTS OF TB Colonies Prevalence Number Inoculum* Drug per plate of resistance of plates per plate conc. (actual) mutants µg./ml. 4 5 x 10 6 INH 1.0 99.101, 1 in 5 x 10 4 106,107 4 5 x 10 7 SM 2.0 55, 59 1 in 1 x 10 6 64,70 100 1 x 10 8 INH 1.0 No growth <1 in 1 x 10 10 SM 2.0 * Number of viable, bacterial units from a seven to 10 day old vigorously growing, well dispersed H37Rv culture in liquid medium (ST). Isoniazid Streptomycin Cohn et al, J Clin Invest 38:1349, 1959
HIV-1 Drug Resistance is the RESULT and the CAUSE of drug failure RESULT: Emergence of drug-resistant virus is an inevitable consequence of the failure to fully suppress HIV-1 (HCV, HBV, influenza virus, TB, etc) replication with antimicrobial therapy. CAUSE: Drug resistance is a major factor contributing to the failure of antiretroviral therapy.
Diversity of RNA Virus Populations RNA viruses constitute a quasispecies. Genetically distinct viral variants evolve from an initial monoclonal or oligoclonal virus inoculum. Variants are generated due to errorprone nature of RT.
Drug-Resistant Mutants Preexist in Untreated Patients The HIV genome contains 10 4 nucleotides. The mutation rate of HIV is ~3 x 10-5 nucleotides/ replication cycle. ~10 11 virionsare generated by 10 7-10 8 rounds of replication each day.
Preexisting Drug Resistance Mutations Single mutants produced daily Isolated from treatment-naive patients or those infected before antiretroviral drug availability Double mutants less common 3 or more specific resistance mutations in the same genome rare
Rapid Turnover of Viral Quasispecies Most of the virus population in plasma is cleared and replaced each day. Rapid turnover allows rapid emergence of drugresistant variants under selective pressure. Resistant variants may be replaced by residual wild-type virus if selective pressure is removed. Resting latently infected cells may continue to harbor drug-resistant provirus.
HIV-1 infection and a model of the distribution of viral quasispecies in the era of antiretroviral therapy Metzner, Future Virology 1:377, 2006
Infection with drug resistant HIV occurs by one of two major mechanisms Acquired resistance following nonsuppressive treatment (secondary resistance) Transmitted resistance (primary resistance) Both mechanisms are too prevalent. Prevention strategies for these two mechanisms are completely different.
AZT Susceptibility of Sequential Isolates of HIV-1 From a Patient Administered AZT Plaque reduction (%) 0 50 A036B (2 mos) A036C (11 mos) A036D (20 mos) Larder, Darby and Richman, Science 1989; 243:1731. 100 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 AZT (µm)
HCSUS: Prevalence of HIV Drug Resistance HCSUS population Representative as possible to all HIV-positive persons receiving medical care in early 1996 1080 samples with HIV RNA >500 copies/ml Resistance more common Lowest CD4 count nadir Higher HIV RNA More access to care Resistance less common Patients cared for by the most experienced providers Proportion With Phenotypic Resistance 100 80 60 40 20 0 78% 70% 51% 42% 31% 14% Any NRTI NNRTI PI >2 3 Drug Drug Classes Richman et al, AIDS 18:1393, 2004
Transmission of Drug-Resistant HIV in Treatment-Naïve Patients IC 50 >10-fold increase via PhenoSense HIV (ViroLogic) 15 NNRTI Phenotypic Resistance (% patients) 10 5 PI NRTI 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 (n=11) (n=56) (n=101) (n=97) (n=90) (n=23) 14 Little SJ, et al. N Engl J Med. 2002;347:385-394
Improved Virologic Outcomes Concomitant with Decreasing Incidence of Drug Resistance Percentage of patients with pvl <50 copies/ml 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Increasing proportion of VL levels <50 c/ml in BC, 2000-2008 R 2 = 0.97 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Annual Incidence of Resistance (N) Decreasing resistance despite increased ARV exposure in BC, 1997-2008 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Patient-months of ARV Exposure Year Year Gill VS, et al. CID (2010) 50:98-105 15
Scherrer et al, CID, 2016
How did this reduction in resistance with more expanded treatment happen? Better drugs More potent and better half-lives (TDF/FTC, better PIs, integrase inhibitors) More tolerable and less toxic (thymidine analogues are history) Fixed dose combinations Better monitoring of failure and then use of drug resistance testing and better drugs for treatment failure
25.0 % of Patients with Acquired HIVDR 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 20.7 15.0 11.1 7.2 6 to 11 12 to 23 24 to 35 36 Months on ART Figure 1. Changes in rates of acquired HIVDR to any drug class according duration of treatment. HIVDR=human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance. ART=antiretroviral therapy. Stadeli and Richman, Antiviral Therapy 18(1):115-23, 2013
25.0 23.5 % of Patients wth Drug Resistance 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 21.6 21.6 20.0 17.3 15.9 10.5 8.2 7.2 6.7 4.2 3.7 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6 to 11 12 to 23 24 to 35 36 Months on ART Figure 2. Distribution of acquired HIVDR to individual drug classes according to time on antiretroviral therapy NRTI NNRTI PI Multi-Class Stadeliand Richman, Antiviral Therapy 18(1):115-23, 2013
7.0 6.6 % of Patients with Transmitted HIVDR 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.0 0.6 <5 years 5 years Time Since ART Availability 1.4 1.2 Total HIVDR NRTI NNRTI PI Multi-Class Figure 3. Changes in rates of transmitted HIVDR according to time since ART availability Stadeli and Richman, Antiviral Therapy 18(1):115-23, 2013
Cost of continuing a regimen failing as defined by virologic criteria Percent of Patients 100 80 60 40 20 0 M184V + other NRTI mutation M184V or wild type 0 8 9 16 17 24 25 32 33 40 41 48 Weeks n = 39 34 28 24 20 16 Melby T, et al. 8th CROI; 2001; Chicago, Ill. Abstract 448 CNA3005: ZDV/3TC/ABC vs. ZDV/3TC/IDV First genotype performed at time of rebound Last genotype performed prior to changing ART Early breakthrough with wild type or M184V Increasing NRTI mutations associated with crossresistance to all RTIs
Rapid accumulation of DRMs when first-line ART is continued despite virological failure Longitudinal genotyping analysis at first detection of VF (t1) and 6-12 months after (t2) Steep increase in TAMs (+250%) and K65R (+100%) NNRTI susceptibility is already lost at first detection of VF Precedes WHO-defined failure criteria Barth et al. Antiviral Therapy 2012
How much will resistance impact the benefits of the antiretroviral rollout in resource-limited countries? Access to antiretroviral therapy has been a remarkable achievement with a dramatic impact on almost 18 million individuals in resource-limited countries; however, We have been using suboptimal regimens for treatment and for MTCT. We have been assessing failure by clinical or CD4 endpoints. We are not optimally monitoring virologic failure in individuals or resistance in populations (both acquired and transmitted).
Prevention of acquired drug resistance requires addressing the causes The patient adherence The prescribing care provider selecting an optimal regimen counseling the patient The drugs Potency tolerability pharmacokinetics
Additional factors specific to LMIC that contribute to the emergence of HIV drug resistance Suboptimal Regimens Thymidine analogues Insufficient second-line and salvage regimens Failure of methods and resources to monitor viral loads Drug distribution (stock-outs) Perinatal PMTC rather than treating pregnant women with ART (option B+)
Summary The principles of HIV drug resistance are well established (Darwinian evolution). The mistakes and lessons learned in the developed world have been recapitulated in low and middle income countries. Prevention of further increases in drug resistance Better regimens Avoid stockouts Monitor viral load Interventions to improve adherence and reduced risk behaviors