Identifying, Preparing for & Reducing Pandemic Risk Jonna Mazet, DVM, MPVM, PhD Professor of Epidemiology & Disease Ecology One Health Institute School of Veterinary Medicine University of California, Davis, CA, USA #epidemicsgoviral
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 Number of EVD Events HIV Avian Influenza Nipah SARS H1N1 Zika Ebola MERS The threat from emerging viruses is increasing 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Actual Projected Decades Each year, approx. 3 new Viral Diseases emerge Driven by Population expansion (1.6 billion in 1900 to 11.5 billion people in 2100) Increased encroachment into wildlife habitat which accelerates the spillover from wildlife to humans Source: Jones et al. (2008) Nature
One Health Interface Livelihood Impacts & Economic Pressures Health Risks to Humans, Livestock, & Wildlife Land Use Change & Human Population Growth Increased Contact Between Humans, Livestock, & Wildlife Enhanced Flow of Pathogens Majority of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in people are of animal origin (zoonotic) 75% of emerging zoonoses have wildlife origins Human activities at the interface linked to EIDs (Nipah virus, SARS, Ebola) Annual population growth among highest in buffers to protected areas near wildlife
Economic Impact of Recent EVDs $60 bn $50 bn $40 bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50 bn H5N1 Worldwide $40 bn H1N1 Worldwide $45-55 bn Ebola Worldwide $40 bn $30 bn $20 bn $10 bn MERS South Korea Zika $8-12 bn Americas $4-6 bn 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Economic Impact of Recent EVDs $60 bn $50 bn $40 bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50 bn H5N1 Worldwide $40 bn H1N1 Worldwide $45-55 bn Ebola Worldwide $40 bn $30 bn $20 bn $10 bn Estimated Annual Inclusive cost of a pandemic ~ $570 billion per year Fan, Jamison, Summers MERS South Korea Zika $8-12 bn Americas $4-6 bn 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Global travel & trade can turn local epidemics into pandemics
One Health in Action
One Health in Action
The Ministries of Health, Agriculture & Environment and Implementing University and NGO Partners in 35 Countries
Training a Disease Surveillance Workforce
Training a Disease Detection Workforce
Coordinated One Health Surveillance Strategy Concurrent sampling of wildlife, livestock, and people Investigations during disease outbreaks Triangulation Detect viruses shared among animals and people
MERS-like Virus Identified in Uganda
Novel ebolavirus found in Sierra Leone
Comparison to other Ebolaviruses
Characteristics of a Pandemic Threat Evolution of pathogens in animal hosts Cross-species transmission Spread by human-to-human transmission Environmental change driving these processes
Hotspots 2.0 zoonotic diseases relative influence (%) std. dev. population 27.99 2.99 mammal diversity 19.84 3.30 change: pop 13.54 1.54 change: pasture 11.71 1.30 urban extent 9.77 1.62 Allen et al. 2017 Nature Comm.
Projected number of undiscovered missing zoonoses Bat Missing Zoonoses Rodent Missing Zoonoses Primate Missing Zoonoses Olival et al. 2017, Nature
Ranking Which Viruses Are Most Risky
Expert Opinion Scientific Evidence Virus Detection Global Datasets Citizen Science Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit.
Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit. #epidemicsgoviral
Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit.
Have a question? For online attendees, click on the Live Q&A tab, type your question into the pop-up box, and click submit. #epidemicsgoviral
Extrapolating Number of Viruses & Samples Discovery curves show the number of samples required PREDICT research has demonstrated that far fewer samples than previously expected are required to identify all the viruses in a given species These viral discovery curve studies provide a roadmap to sampling needs for GVP
Making the unknown known 111 viral families recognized to-date infecting all hosts around the globe 24 of these families likely contain zoonotic species To-date a total of 385 viruses are known to have infected humans ~1.6 million viral species spanning the 24 viral families are estimated to be circulating in mammals and water fowl Of these 500,000-800,000 viral species are likely to be of pandemic or epidemic potential
The Global Virome Project A First Step Toward Ending the Pandemic Era
The Global Virome Project Developing a global database of virtually all of the planet s naturally-occurring viral threats Transforming the world of EIDs into a data-rich field Enabling rapid detection of natural and laboratory-enhanced threats Exponentially increasing the amount of conservation genetics data available
GVP Builds a Comprehensive Viral Atlas GVP viral surveillance and collection Metadata on viral host range, geographic distribution, epidemiology Virus genomic sequence generation Sequence database Viral Atlas A comprehensive ecologic and genetic database on all naturallyoccurring viruses Enabling An Enhanced Global Health Tool Box
Overarching: Disruptive & Transformative Using Big Data to Identify Epidemic Risk & Target Counter Measure R&D GVP Sequence & Metadata Massive Viral Data sets Artificial Intelligence Analysis Shared Viral Family Features Transforming Counter Measure R&D
The Halo Effect Stages of Emergence Critically important data collected on host ecology, epidemiology, genetics & human interaction Surveillance & laboratory platforms available for more than just human-centered investigations & will remain beyond the GVP Trained cross-disciplinary workforce, brought up with One Health principles
GVP: Making future threats known
Towards a proactive paradigm for early disease detection and response One Health approach to understanding the dynamics of zoonotic virus evolution, spillover from animals to people, amplification, and spread to inform prevention and control