The Ankle-Brachial Index and Incident Cardiovascular Events in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Similar documents
Coronary Calcium Predicts Events Better With Absolute Calcium Scores Than Age-Sex-Race/Ethnicity Percentiles

The Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Cardiovascular Risk in Hispanics

ORIGINAL INVESTIGATION. C-Reactive Protein Concentration and Incident Hypertension in Young Adults

LDL cholesterol (p = 0.40). However, higher levels of HDL cholesterol (> or =1.5 mmol/l [60 mg/dl]) were associated with less progression of CAC

Calcium Density of Coronary Artery Plaque and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Events

Renal Artery Calcification and Mortality Among Clinically Asymptomatic Adults

Subclinical atherosclerosis in CVD: Risk stratification & management Raul Santos, MD

ORIGINAL INVESTIGATION

CVD risk assessment using risk scores in primary and secondary prevention

CLINICAL STUDY. Yasser Khalil, MD; Bertrand Mukete, MD; Michael J. Durkin, MD; June Coccia, MS, RVT; Martin E. Matsumura, MD

Central pressures and prediction of cardiovascular events in erectile dysfunction patients

Journal of the American College of Cardiology Vol. 48, No. 6, by the American College of Cardiology Foundation ISSN /06/$32.

Coronary Artery Calcium to Predict All-Cause Mortality in Elderly Men and Women

Baseline Functional Performance Predicts the Rate of Mobility Loss in Persons With Peripheral Arterial Disease

A: Epidemiology update. Evidence that LDL-C and CRP identify different high-risk groups

Ankle-Brachial Index and Subclinical Cardiac and Carotid Disease

Repeatability Limits for Measurement of Coronary Artery Calcified Plaque with Cardiac CT in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Coronary Artery Calcification

CORONARY ARTERY CALCIUM AND INCIDENT STROKE IN THE MULTI-ETHNIC STUDY OF ATHEROSCLEROSIS (MESA) COHORT ASHLEIGH A. OWEN, MD

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is now the preferred term. Peripheral Artery Disease Compendium. Epidemiology of Peripheral Artery Disease

2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines on the Assessment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk: Overview and Commentary

Journal of the American College of Cardiology Vol. 48, No. 2, by the American College of Cardiology Foundation ISSN /06/$32.

The epidemiology of subclavian artery calcification

Distribution of Coronary Artery Calcium Scores by Framingham 10-Year Risk Strata in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Financial Disclosures. Coronary Artery Calcification. Objectives. Coronary Artery Calcium 6/6/2018. Heart Disease Statistics At-a-Glace 2017

/13/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declining Walking Impairment Questionnaire Scores Are Associated With Subsequent Increased Mortality in Peripheral Artery Disease

Society for Behavioral Medicine 33 rd Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA

Using Coronary Artery Calcium Score in the Quest for Cardiac Health. Robert J. Hage, D.O.

Assessing Cardiovascular Risk to Optimally Stratify Low- and Moderate- Risk Patients. Copyright. Not for Sale or Commercial Distribution

Khurram Nasir, MD MPH

CVD Risk Assessment. Michal Vrablík Charles University, Prague Czech Republic

Cardiac CT for Risk Assessment: Do we need to look beyond Coronary Artery Calcification

Progression of Peripheral Arterial Disease Predicts Cardiovascular Disease Morbidity and Mortality

New Paradigms in Predicting CVD Risk

CVD Prevention, Who to Consider

Preclinical Detection of CAD: Is it worth the effort? Michael H. Crawford, MD

Coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors

New Guidelines in Dyslipidemia Management

David Ramenofsky, MD Bryan Kestenbaum, MD

Autonomic nervous system, inflammation and preclinical carotid atherosclerosis in depressed subjects with coronary risk factors

Larry Diaz, MD, FSCAI Mehdi H. Shishehbor, DO, FSCAI

Is the Ankle-Brachial Index a Useful Screening Test for Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Asymptomatic, Middle-Aged Adults?

Vascular disease. Structural evaluation of vascular disease. Goo-Yeong Cho, MD, PhD Seoul National University Bundang Hospital

Antihypertensive Trial Design ALLHAT

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a highly prevalent

NIH Public Access Author Manuscript Am J Cardiol. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2008 January 24.

GALECTIN-3 PREDICTS LONG TERM CARDIOVASCULAR DEATH IN HIGH-RISK CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE PATIENTS

Assessing atherosclerotic risk for long term preventive treatment

APPENDIX AVAILABLE ON THE HEI WEB SITE

Review of guidelines for management of dyslipidemia in diabetic patients

Intensive Treatment of Diabetes is Associated with a Reduced Rate of Peripheral Arterial Calcification in Diabetes Control and Complications Trial

ORIGINAL INVESTIGATION

Joshua A. Beckman, MD. Brigham and Women s Hospital

Cardiovascular Diseases in CKD

Disclosures CORONARY CALCIUM SCORING REVISITED. Learning Objectives. Scoring Methods. Consultant for M2S, Inc. Coronary Calcium Scoring: Software

Central hemodynamics and prediction of cardiovascular events in patients with erectile dysfunction

Prevalence, Progression and Associated Risk Factors of Asymptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease

New Guidelines in Dyslipidemia Management

MEDICAL POLICY SUBJECT: CORONARY CALCIUM SCORING

1. Which one of the following patients does not need to be screened for hyperlipidemia:

Current and Future Imaging Trends in Risk Stratification for CAD

Peripheral arterial disease is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation in the elderly

Early Adult Risk Factor Levels and Subsequent Coronary Artery Calcification

Ankle brachial index performance among internal medicine residents

TABLE OF CONTENTS. 2. LOWER EXTREMITY PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE 2.1. Epidemiology Risk Factors

YOUNG ADULT MEN AND MIDDLEaged

Potential recommendations for CT coronary angiography in athletes

Neal W Jorgensen 1*, Christopher T Sibley 2 and Robyn L McClelland 1

Prognostic Significance of Declining Ankle-brachial Index Values in Patients with Suspected or Known Peripheral Arterial Disease

Learning Objectives. Predicting and Preventing Cardiovascular Disease. ACC/AHA Cholesterol Guidelines Key differences vs ATP III

SUPPLEMENTARY DATA. Supplementary Figure S1. Cohort definition flow chart.

Preventing Myocardial Infarction in the Young Adult in the First Place: How Do the National Cholesterol Education Panel III Guidelines Perform?

Atherosclerotic Disease Risk Score

4/7/ The stats on heart disease. + Deaths & Age-Adjusted Death Rates for

JOURNAL OF VASCULAR SURGERY Volume 32, Number 6 McDermott et al 1165 METHODS

Coronary Calcium as a Predictor of Coronary Events in Four Racial or Ethnic Groups

John J.P. Kastelein MD PhD Professor of Medicine Dept. of Vascular Medicine Academic Medial Center / University of Amsterdam

The Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score

Theoretical and practical questions in the evaluation of arterial function Miklós Illyés MD. Ph.D.

ARIC Manuscript Proposal # PC Reviewed: 2/10/09 Status: A Priority: 2 SC Reviewed: Status: Priority:

Analytical Methods: the Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP) The Kidney Early Evaluation program (KEEP) is a free, community based health

Supplementary Appendix

The Relationship Between Blood Pressure and C-Reactive Protein in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

JUPITER NEJM Poll. Panel Discussion: Literature that Should Have an Impact on our Practice: The JUPITER Study

Supplementary Table 1. Baseline Characteristics by Quintiles of Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressures

Association between arterial stiffness and cardiovascular risk factors in a pediatric population

Ischemic Heart and Cerebrovascular Disease. Harold E. Lebovitz, MD, FACE Kathmandu November 2010

The Art of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment

Carotid Ddisease, Carotid IMT and Risk of Stroke

João A. C. Lima, MD Professor of Medicine and Radiology Johns Hopkins Hospital

Using Cardiovascular Risk to Guide Antihypertensive Treatment Implications For The Pre-elderly and Elderly

Intima-Media Thickness

Objective Calcium score carotid IMT hs-crp

Role of imaging in risk assessment models: the example of CIMT

Inflammation and and Heart Heart Disease in Women Inflammation and Heart Disease

Supplementary Online Content

The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is widely recommended

The role of coronary artery calcium score on the detection of subclinical atherosclerosis in metabolic diseases

Transcription:

Journal of the American College of Cardiology Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation ISSN 0735-1097/$36.00 Published by Elsevier Inc. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2010.04.060 Peripheral Arterial Disease The Ankle-Brachial Index and Incident Cardiovascular Events in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Michael H. Criqui, MD, MPH,* Robyn L. McClelland, PHD, Mary M. McDermott, MD, Matthew A. Allison, MD, MPH,* Roger S. Blumenthal, MD, Victor Aboyans, PHD, Joachim H. Ix, MD, MAS,* Gregory L. Burke, MD, MS, Kaing Liu, PHD, Steven Shea, MD, MS# La Jolla, California; Seattle, Washington; Chicago, Illinois; Baltimore, Maryland; Limoges, France; Winston-Salem, North Carolina; and New York, New York Objectives Background The purpose of this study was to examine the association of both a low and a high ankle-brachial index (ABI) with incident cardiovascular events in a multiethnic cohort. Abnormal ABIs, both low and high, are associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, it is unknown whether this association is consistent across different ethnic groups, and whether it is independent of both newer biomarkers and other measures of subclinical atherosclerotic CVD. Methods A total of 6,647 non-hispanic white, African-American, Hispanic, and Chinese men and women age 45 to 84 years from free-living populations in 6 U.S. field centers and free of clinical CVD at baseline had extensive measures of traditional and newer biomarker risk factors, and measures of subclinical CVD, including the ABI. Incident CVD, defined as coronary disease, stroke, or other atherosclerotic CVD death, was determined over a mean follow-up of 5.3 years. Results Conclusions Both a low ( 1.00) and a high ( 1.40) ABI were associated with incident CVD events. Sex- and ethnic-specific analyses showed consistent results. Hazard ratios were 1.77 (p 0.001) for a low and 1.85 (p 0.050) for a high ABI after adjustment for both traditional and newer biomarker CVD risk factors, and the ABI significantly improved risk discrimination. Further adjustment for coronary artery calcium score, common and internal carotid intimal medial thickness, and major electrocardiographic abnormalities only modestly attenuated these hazard ratios. In this study, both a low and a high ABI were associated with elevated CVD risk in persons free of known CVD, independent of standard and novel risk factors, and independent of other measures of subclinical CVD. Further research should address the cost effectiveness of measuring the ABI in targeted population groups. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;56:1506 12) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is prevalent worldwide and in all ethnic groups in the U.S. (1). It can be accurately diagnosed with the ankle-brachial index (ABI), and low From the *Department of Family & Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois; Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland; Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Vascular Medicine, Dupuytren University Hospital, Limoges, France; Department of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University Health Sciences, Winston-Salem, North Carolina; and the #Columbia University Medical School, New York, New York. This research was supported by contracts N01-HC-95159 through N01-HC-95169 with the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland. The authors have reported that they have no relationships to disclose. Alan T. Hirsch, MD, served as Guest Editor for this article. Manuscript received November 24, 2009; revised manuscript received April 13, 2010, accepted April 14, 2010. values of the ABI are strongly predictive of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and CVD, as well as total mortality (2 5). These associations hold true in both sexes and are independent of traditional CVD risk factors and extant CVD at baseline (2,4,5). Recently, a meta-analysis of 16 general population studies worldwide demonstrated that as opposed to the conventional definition of a normal ABI as 0.90, the true normal range of the ABI appears to be 1.00 to 1.40, with both higher and lower values associated with increased risk of CVD events (5). Second, the risk associated with an abnormal ABI contributed incremental information to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and the risk of a CVD event with an abnormal ABI was present at every level of the FRS. Third, the ABI increased the area under the receiveroperating characteristic (ROC) curve beyond the FRS predic-

JACC Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 October 26, 2010:1506 12 Criqui et al. Ankle-Brachial Index and Cardiovascular Events 1507 tion. However, the questions of whether the ABI provides incremental risk information beyond newer biomarkers, or beyond other measures of subclinical CVD, or in ethnic groups other than non-hispanic white (NHW), have not previously been addressed. In the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), multiple newer biomarkers were measured as well as the standard CVD risk factors, and in addition to the ABI, additional tests of subclinical cardiovascular disease were performed (6). Participants had measurements of coronary artery calcium (CAC) by computed tomography (CT), carotid intimal medial thickness (CIMT) by ultrasound, and major electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities. CAC in MESA showed strong predictive power for incident CVD events (7), and CIMT was also significantly associated with CVD events, though less so than CAC (8). Here, we explored the ethnic-specific associations of the ABI with CVD events, and whether the predictive power of the ABI was independent of newer biomarkers as well as standard CVD risk factors, and independent of other subclinical measures in MESA (i.e., CAC, CIMT, and major ECG abnormalities). Methods Participants. Details of the study design and protocol have been published (6). In brief, between July 2000 and August 2002, 6,814 NHW, African-American, Hispanic, or Chinese men and women 45 to 84 years of age and free of clinically apparent CVD were recruited from 6 communities and participated in the baseline examination. Data collection. At the baseline examination, standardized questionnaires were used to obtain demographic information and level of education, annual household income, smoking history, and medication usage for high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or diabetes. Cigarette smoking was calculated in pack-years and also defined as current, former, or never. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. Systolic and diastolic resting blood pressures were measured in seated participants. Laboratory. Total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose levels were measured from blood samples obtained after a 12-h fast. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was calculated by the Friedewald equation. Diabetes was defined as fasting glucose 126 mg/dl or use of hypoglycemic medication. Using fasting blood samples from the baseline visit, the following analytes were selected based on their association with the ABI in prior analyses: high-sensitivity plasma C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, interleukin (IL)-6, D-dimer, estimated glomerular filtration rate (egfr), and homocysteine (9). The laboratory methodology for these variables has been published (10). ABI protocol. Systolic blood pressure measurements in the bilateral brachial, dorsalis pedis, and posterior tibial arteries were obtained in the supine position using a hand-held Doppler instrument with a 5-mHz probe. To avoid potential bias from subclavian stenosis, the higher of the brachial artery pressures was used as the denominator (11). For each lower extremity, the ABI numerator used was the highest pressure (dorsalis pedis or posterior tibial) from that leg. The leg cuff was inflated to a maximum of 300 mm Hg, and if a pulse was still detected at this level, the ABI was classified as incompressible. A subset of 384 MESA participants had replicate ABI measurements that showed excellent reproducibility. Participants were classified into 1 of 3 ABI categories: normal when both legs had values 1.00 ABI 1.4; low when a least 1 leg had a value 1.00; and high when at least 1 leg was 1.40 or incompressible and the other leg was high/ incompressible or normal. Subclinical CVD assessment. Scanning centers assessed CAC by CT using either a cardiacgated electron-beam CT scanner Abbreviations and Acronyms ABI ankle-brachial index BMI body mass index CAC coronary artery calcium CHD coronary heart disease CIMT carotid intimal medial thickness CRP C-reactive protein CT computed tomography CVD cardiovascular disease ECG electrocardiographic egfr estimated glomerular filtration rate FRS Framingham Risk Score HDL high-density lipoprotein HR hazard ratio IL interleukin NHW non-hispanic white PAD peripheral artery disease ROC receiver operating characteristic or a multidetector CT system (11,12). The mean phantomadjusted Agatston score was used in all analyses (13). Trained technicians performed B-mode ultrasonography of the right and left near and far walls of the internal carotid and common carotid arteries (13). Three 12-lead recordings were obtained using a Marquette MAC-PC instrument (Marquette Electronics, Milwaukee, Wisconsin) and read using Novacode criteria (14). CVD follow-up. Follow-up went from the baseline examination until the first CVD event, loss to follow-up, death, or the sixth follow-up call, for a follow-up median of 4.8 and a mean of 5.3 years (maximum, 6.5 years). For this report, we defined incident CVD as coronary heart disease (CHD) (definite and probable MI, definite CHD death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and definite angina), stroke (fatal or nonfatal), or other atherosclerotic CVD death. Details of CVD event ascertainment have been published (7). Statistical analysis. From the 6,814 MESA participants, we excluded 167 with missing ABI values, leaving 6,647 participants for analysis. Age-, sex-, and ethnicity-adjusted means and percentages of potential risk factors by ABI group were computed using either linear or logistic regression models. A natural log (ln) transformation was used for highly skewed variables. For CVD outcome analyses, we

1508 Criqui et al. JACC Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 Ankle-Brachial Index and Cardiovascular Events October 26, 2010:1506 12 utilized the 3 levels of ABI (normal, low, high) for categorical analyses, and also employed ABI as a continuous variable, excluding participants with an ABI 1.40. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). We performed tests for nonproportional hazards across ABI categories using Schoenfeld residuals (15); all results were nonsignificant. Additionally, interactions between time and ABI category were also nonsignificant. In order to examine the independence of the ABI with increasing levels of adjustment, 4 separate Cox models were run. Model 1 was adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity. Model 2 added education, income, and the traditional CVD risk factors noted in Table 1, that is, smoking (never/ former/current and pack-years), BMI, diabetes, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medications, total cholesterol to HDL ratio, log triglycerides, and lipidlowering medications. Model 3 added the newer biomarkers: CRP, IL-6, fibrinogen, D-dimer, egfr, and homocysteine. Model 4 added CAC (none, 1 to 100, and 100 Agatston units), both common and internal CIMT values as continuous variables, and major ECG abnormalities, in order to provide maximum adjustment for any confounding by other subclinical CVD. Model 3 was employed in evaluating the association of ABI category with coronary disease and stroke events separately. Separate models were also run within ethnic groups adjusted for age and sex. Kaplan-Meier event curves were drawn for the 3 ABI categories, and CVD event rates per 1,000 person-years at risk were calculated for the ABI categories stratified by CAC levels (0, 1 to 100, and 100 Agatston units). The incremental value of ABI to the prediction of events in MESA was evaluated both by the improvement in the area under the ROC curve and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) (16). All analyses were performed using STATA version 10.1 (StataCorp, College Station, Texas) statistical software. Results Table 1 shows first the distribution of age, sex, and ethnicity across the low, normal, and high ABI groups. Both low and high ABI groups were somewhat older than the normal Association Sex-, and Race/Ethnicity-Adjusted of Association Age, Sex, of and Age, Race/Ethnicity Sex, Distributions and Race/Ethnicity With of ABI RiskCategory, Factors With ABI by and ABI Category, Age-, and Age-, Table 1 Sex-, and Race/Ethnicity-Adjusted Distributions of Risk Factors by ABI Category Normal 1.0 < ABI <1.4 (n 5,731) ABI Category Low ABI <1.0 (n 806) p Value High ABI >1.4 or Incompressible (n 110) Low vs. Normal High vs. Normal Age, yrs 61.3 10.0 66.3 10.3 64.9 10.3 0.001 0.001 Male, mean (n) 49.0 (2,808) 32.0 (258) 77.3 (85) 0.001 0.001 Female, mean (n) 51.0 (2,923) 68.0 (548) 22.7 (25) 0.001 0.001 Race/ethnicity White, mean (n) 38.3 (2,195) 36.5 (294) 48.2 (53) 0.32 0.03 Chinese, mean (n) 12.7 (728) 8.6 (69) 2.7 (3) 0.001 0.002 African American, mean (n) 25.8 (1,479) 41.3 (333) 25.5 (28) 0.001 0.93 Hispanic, mean (n) 23.2 (1,329) 13.7 (110) 23.6 (26) 0.001 0.91 Age-, Sex-, and Race/Ethnicity-Adjusted Means and Percentages Current smoking, % 10 20 7 0.001 0.25 Pack-years of smoking, % 10.6 17.6 9.9 0.001 0.95 High school graduate, % 88 84 86 0.001 0.44 Household income $25,000, % 27 33 29 0.001 0.60 Body mass index, kg/m 2 28.3 28.1 30.1 0.20 0.001 Diabetes, % 10 14 23 0.001 0.001 Systolic BP, mm Hg 126 132 124 0.001 0.46 Diastolic BP, mm Hg 72 72 71 0.40 0.15 Antihypertensive medications, % 35 41 37 0.001 0.68 Hypertension, % 43 54 40 0.001 0.67 TC/HDL ratio 4.06 4.27 3.86 0.001 0.09 Log triglycerides, log mg/dl 4.72 4.78 4.74 0.002 0.66 Lipid-lowering medications, % 15 19 14 0.001 0.78 Dyslipidemia, % 32 45 27 0.001 0.18 ln CRP, log mg/l 0.62 0.80 0.84 0.001 0.04 ln IL-6, log pg/ml 0.19 0.35 0.32 0.001 0.04 Fibrinogen, mg/dl 345 357 356 0.001 0.12 ln D-dimer, log g/ml 1.53 1.41 1.41 0.001 0.16 egfr, ml/min/1.73 m 2 81.4 80.3 81.5 0.076 0.95 ln homocysteine, log mol/l 2.17 2.21 2.25 0.001 0.004 ABI ankle-brachial index; BP blood pressure; CRP C-reactive protein; egfr estimated glomerular filtration rate; HDL high-density lipoprotein; IL interleukin; TC total cholesterol.

JACC Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 October 26, 2010:1506 12 Criqui et al. Ankle-Brachial Index and Cardiovascular Events 1509 group, and women were more common in the low and men more common in the high ABI groups. Compared to NHWs, African Americans were more likely to be in the low ABI group, whereas Hispanics and Chinese were less likely. Chinese were also less likely to be in the high ABI group. Because of these differences, the baseline risk factor levels in the remainder of Table 1 were adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity. Education and income levels were lower in the low ABI group. With the exception of BMI, traditional CVD risk factors were uniformly significantly higher in the low ABI group, whereas only BMI and diabetes were higher in the high ABI group. Among the 6 novel biomarkers, hs-crp, Il-6, and homocysteine were all significantly higher in both the low and high ABI groups. Fibrinogen and D-dimer were higher, and egfr borderline lower, in the low ABI group. There were 317 first CVD events during follow-up, 226 CHD events, 89 strokes (including 7 who also had CHD events), and 9 other atherosclerotic CVD deaths. CVD event rates per 1,000 person-years in men for NHW, African Americans, Hispanics, and Chinese were 14.9, 14.5, 16.1, and 10.2, respectively, and for women 8.4, 7.4, 6.4, and 3.7, respectively. Figure 1 shows Kaplan-Meier event curves illustrating the similarly increased hazard of CVD events for both a low and a high ABI over time compared with a normal ABI. Table 2 shows the results of the proportional hazards analysis. Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity (model 1), a low ABI was associated with a HR of 2.30 (p 0.001) for CVD events. Adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors in addition (model 2) attenuated the HR to 1.78 (p 0.001). Further adjustment (model 3) for newer biomarkers produced no change (HR: 1.77, p 0.001). Finally, adjustment for multiple subclinical CVD measures, CAC, both common and internal CIMT, and major ECG abnormalities attenuated the HR somewhat to 1.46, but the association remained significant (p 0.021). A high ABI was also associated with an increased risk, and after multiple adjustment (model 3), the HR was 1.85, p 0.050, which was a similar effect size as for the low ABI. Additional adjustment for CAC, common and internal CIMT, and major ECG abnormalities attenuated the HR somewhat to 1.69, p 0.099. Tests of the these models for sex ABI interactions were not significant. After model 2 adjustment for the categorical ABI analysis, the area under the ROC curve was 0.78 without and 0.79 with the ABI, p 0.022 for the difference, and the IDI index showed that the ABI contributed significantly (p 0.003) to improving classification of events and non-events. Table 2 shows that results were similar for analyses with ABI as a continuous variable (excluding ABIs 1.40), and a generalized additive model fit to examine potential nonlinearity indicated that after covariate adjustment there was little deviation from a linear inverse relationship across the ABI values. Figure 2 illustrates the risk of CVD events by ABI group within strata of CAC. In those without any CAC, incidence rates were quite low irrespective of ABI group. In the groups with nonzero CAC, ABI showed a U-shaped association within CAC groups. As a continuous variable, ABI was Figure 1 Kaplan-Meier Event Curves for Incident CVD by ABI Categories Kaplan-Meier event curves for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) by ankle-brachial index (ABI) categories over an average of 5.3 years of follow-up in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

1510 Criqui et al. JACC Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 Ankle-Brachial Index and Cardiovascular Events October 26, 2010:1506 12 Risk Table of Incident 2 RiskCardiovascular of Incident Cardiovascular Events by ABI Events Levelby ABI Level ABI Category Continuous ABI Normal (1.0 < ABI <1.4) (n 5,731) Low (<1.00) (n 806) p Value High (>1.4) (n 110) p Value Excluding ABI >1.4 (n 6,537) p Value Events 226 80 11 306 Rate per 1,000 PY 8.7 23.1 22.6 10.4 Model 1 1.00 2.30 (1.76 3.00) 0.001 1.68 (0.91 3.09) 0.090 0.80 (0.74 0.87) 0.001 Model 2 1.00 1.78 (1.32 2.39) 0.001 1.82 (0.98 3.34) 0.058 0.89 (0.82 0.98) 0.012 Model 3 1.00 1.77 (1.31 2.40) 0.001 1.85 (1.00 3.43) 0.050 0.86 (0.81 0.97) 0.008 Model 4 1.00 1.46 (1.06 2.00) 0.021 1.69 (0.91 3.14) 0.099 0.94 (0.86 1.03) 0.210 See Methods for variables in Models 1, 2, and 3. Event rate is per 1,000 person-years (PY) at risk. Values for Models 1 to 4 are hazard ratio (95% confidence interval). Coefficients for continuous ABI are expressed per 0.10 increment. ABI ankle-brachial index; CI confidence interval; HR hazards ratio. inversely and significantly related to the CVD event rate among those with any CAC (data not shown). Models limited to hard CVD events (i.e., excluding angina and other CVD deaths) showed similar results except for reduced statistical power (data not shown). Additional models evaluated the association of the ABI defined continuously (excluding ABIs 1.40) within ethnic groups, adjusted for age and sex. The HRs were quite similar: 0.74 for NHWs, 0.80 for Hispanics, 0.83 for Chinese, and 0.87 for African Americans. Although power was insufficient to analyze the ABI categorically within ethnic groups, an additional Cox model was run including an interaction term for ABI group ethnicity. The p value for the interaction term was 0.71, confirming the similar effect size for ABI within ethnic groups. Figure 2 Unadjusted Rates of Incident CVD per 1,000 Person-Years at Risk by Categories of ABI and CAC Rates of incident CVD per 1,000 person-years at risk by categories of ABI and coronary artery calcium (CAC) over an average of 5.3 years of follow-up in the MESA. CI confidence interval; other abbreviations as in Figure 1. Models were also run for CHD and stroke events separately, using model 2 adjustments. For CHD end points, the low and high ABIs again showed similar hazard ratios, 1.87 (p 0.001) and 2.15 (p 0.029). However, the results appeared to differ for stroke, where high ABI was associated with a HR of 2.69, p 0.06, whereas low ABI showed a weaker association, HR: 1.56, p 0.10. Discussion Using updated and more accurate definitions of a normal, low and high ABI (5), this study confirmed the independent association of both a low and high ABI with future CVD events in an ethnically diverse community dwelling population of men and women without symptomatic CVD at baseline. Addition of the ABI to risk factors resulted in minor but significant improvement in the area under the ROC curve. However, this statistic has been criticized as not providing the full potential discriminating value of a risk marker, since a marker producing only modest change in the ROC curve can nonetheless substantially improve risk classification, as was the case here (17). Several studies have reported higher risks than those shown here, but such studies included persons with known CVD at baseline, and were thus enriched with higher-risk persons with lower ABIs on average than for this primary prevention cohort. This study demonstrates that in a healthy population with careful exclusion for any known CVD at baseline that both a low and a high ABI predict incident CVD events. Analysis of CHD and stroke events separately demonstrated that a high ABI was more strongly associated with stroke (HR: 2.69) than a low ABI (HR: 1.56), and despite the small numbers, the p value for the high ABI was borderline statistically significant (p 0.06). This is unlikely to be a chance finding, since it has been reported previously (18,19). A high ABI is thought to represent stiff arterial walls, potentially including medial arterial calcification. That is, the value for the ankle artery is not an accurate measure of intra-arterial pressure but rather a falsely high value due to stiffness in the arterial wall. Thus, whether such persons have PAD cannot be determined with the ABI, though one-half or more may have PAD (20,21). Thus,

JACC Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 October 26, 2010:1506 12 Criqui et al. Ankle-Brachial Index and Cardiovascular Events 1511 many persons in the high ABI group could have the CVD risk associated with PAD, but may have a separate strokespecific risk as well. The reason for this is unclear, though a specific link between arterial stiffening and microvascular disease in the brain has been suggested (22), and prior studies using other measures of vascular stiffness such as pulse wave velocity have also shown stronger associations with stroke than with other CVD events (23). Although it has been well established that African Americans have considerably higher, and Hispanics and Asians slightly lower, prevalence rates of PAD compared with NHWs (9,24,25), previous studies have not explored potential differences in the predictive value of the ABI for incident CVD within ethnic groups. The findings here were similar for each of the 4 ethnic groups considered separately. Earlier studies, including the ABI Collaboration metaanalysis (5), in general did not adjust for newer biomarkers. Table 1 shows that indeed such newer biomarkers were associated with both a low and a high ABI. However, adjustment for these newer biomarkers resulted in little change. In the MESA, CAC showed high HRs and significant improvement in the area under the ROC curve over traditional CVD risk factors alone (7). Here, the association of either a low or a high ABI with CVD events was only modestly attenuated after adjustment for CAC, both common and internal CIMT, and major ECG abnormalities (Table 2). Thus, the predictive value of an abnormal ABI remained independent of other measures of subclinical atherosclerosis. The evidence to date suggests that both CIMT (8), and here, the ABI have independent predictive power beyond risk factors and CAC burden. However, it is much easier, quicker, less expensive, and safer to measure the ABI than CAC or CIMT. The data here are the first, to our knowledge, to show the risk of a subclinical measure (ABI) adjusted for traditional and novel risk factors, and for multiple other subclinical measures, simultaneously. Considering that fewer than 10% of persons with PAD in a general population have ischemic leg pain (26), this suggests the potential benefit of identifying such high-risk individuals with targeted ABI screening (27). Although specific ABI screening criteria have been endorsed by multiple national societies (28), to date a cost-effectiveness analysis of such targeted screening has not been published. Study strengths and limitations. Strengths of our study include standardized and validated protocols in a large multiethnic population, measurement of traditional as well as novel risk factors, and assessment of subclinical CVD in a population free of clinical CVD at baseline. Our study also has limitations. The ABI was measured only once at baseline. However, test/retest reliability is good, with a mean error of about 9% within and between observers (29), and nonsystematic misclassification of the ABI at baseline would have been biased toward the null hypothesis. Participants were alerted to low (but not high) ABIs, and thus persons with low ABIs may have differentially received new or more aggressive cardiovascular therapy. Here again, any such bias would be toward the null hypothesis. There were only 11 CVD events in the high ABI group, and numbers were inadequate to evaluate the ethnic-specific risk of a high ABI, so these results must be interpreted cautiously. Conclusions In a primary prevention population, both a low ABI, diagnostic for PAD, and a high ABI, indicative of medial arterial calcification and possible PAD, were associated with incident CVD events. A high ABI was more strongly associated with stroke than was a low ABI. These associations were largely independent of standard CVD risk factors, newer biomarkers, CAC, CIMT, and major ECG abnormalities, and did not vary by ethnic group. Given the simplicity and low cost of measuring the ABI, costeffectiveness analyses for the use of ABI in targeted groups should be a research priority. Reprint requests and correspondence: Dr. Michael H. Criqui, University of California-San Diego School of Medicine, 9500 Gilman Drive, MC 0607, La Jolla, California 92093-0607. E-mail: mcriqui@ucsd.edu. REFERENCES 1. Allison MA, Ho E, Denenberg JO, et al. Ethnic-specific prevalence of peripheral arterial disease in the United States. Am J Prev Med 2007;32:328 33. 2. Criqui MH, Langer RD, Fronek A, et al. Mortality over a period of 10 years in patients with peripheral arterial disease. New Engl J Med 1992;326:381 6. 3. Leng GC, Fowkes FG, Lee AJ, Dunbar J, Housley E, Ruckley CV. Use of ankle brachial pressure index to predict cardiovascular events and death: a cohort study. BMJ 1996;313:1440 4. 4. Golomb BA, Dang TT, Criqui MH. Peripheral arterial disease: morbidity and mortality implications. Circulation 2006;114:688 99. 5. Ankle Brachial Index Collaboration. Ankle brachial index combined with Framingham risk score to predict cardiovascular events and mortality. A meta-analysis. JAMA 2008;300:197 208. 6. Bild DE, Bluemke DA, Burke GL, et al. Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis: objectives and design. Am J Epidemiol 2002;156: 871 81. 7. Detrano R, Guerci AD, Carr JJ, et al. Coronary calcium as a predictor of coronary events in four racial or ethnic groups. N Engl J Med 2008;358:1336 45. 8. Folsom AR, Kronmal RA, Detrano RC, et al. Coronary artery calcification compared with carotid intima-media thickness in the prediction of cardiovascular disease incidence: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Arch Intern Med 2008;168:1333 9. 9. Allison MA, Criqui MH, McClelland RL, et al. The effect of novel cardiovascular risk factors on the ethnic-specific odds for peripheral arterial disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). J Am Coll Cardiol 2006;48:1190 7. 10. Nettleton JA, Steffen LM, Schulze MB, et al. Associations between markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and dietary patterns derived by principal components analysis and reduced rank regression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Am J Clin Nutr 2007;85:1615 25. 11. Shadman R, Criqui MH, Bundens WP, et al. Subclavian artery stenosis: prevalence, risk factors, and association with cardiovascular diseases. J Am Coll Cardiol 2004;44:618 23. 12. Carr JJ, Nelson JC, Wong ND, et al. Calcified coronary artery plaque measurement with cardiac CT in population-based studies: standard-

1512 Criqui et al. JACC Vol. 56, No. 18, 2010 Ankle-Brachial Index and Cardiovascular Events October 26, 2010:1506 12 ized protocol of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study. Radiology 2005;234:35 43. 13. Agatston AS, Janowitz WR, Hildner FJ, Zusmer NR, Viamonte M Jr., Detrano R. Quantification of coronary artery calcium using ultrafast computed tomography. J Am Coll Cardiol 1990;15:827 32. 14. Rautaharju PM, Park LP, Chaitman BR, Rautaharju F, Zhang Z. The Novacode criteria for classification of ECG abnormalities and their clinically significant progression and regression. J Electrocardiol 1998; 31:157 87. 15. Grambsch P, Therneau T. Proportional hazards tests and diagnostics based on weighted residuals. Biometrika 1994;81:515 26. 16. Pencina MJ, D Agostino RB Sr., D Agostino RB Jr., Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med 2008;27:157 72. 17. Cook NR. Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction. Circulation 2007;115:928 35. 18. Sutton-Tyrrell K, Venkitachalam L, Kanaya AM, et al., for the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Relationship of ankle blood pressures to cardiovascular events in older adults. Stroke 2008; 39:863 9. 19. Allison MA, Hiatt WR, Hirsch AT, Coll JR, Criqui MH. A high ankle-brachial index is associated with increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and lower quality of life. J Am Coll Cardiol 2008;51:1292. 20. Suominen V, Rantanen T, Venermo M, Saarinen J, Salenius J. Prevalence and risk factors of PAD among patients with elevated ABI. Eur J Vasc Endovasc Surg 2008;35:709 14. 21. Aboyans V, Ho E, Denenberg JO, Ho LA, Natarajan L, Criqui MH. The association between elevated ankle systolic pressures and peripheral occlusive arterial disease in diabetic and nondiabetic subjects. J Vasc Surg 2008;48:1197 203. 22. O Rourke MF, Safar ME. Relationship between aortic stiffening and microvascular disease in brain and kidney: cause and logic of therapy. Hypertension 2005;46:200 4. 23. Sutton-Tyrrell K, Najjar SS, Boudreau RM, et al., Health ABC Study. Elevated aortic pulse wave velocity, a marker of arterial stiffness, predicts cardiovascular events in well-functioning older adults. Circulation 2005;111:3384 90. 24. Criqui MH, Vargas V, Denenberg JO, et al. Ethnicity and peripheral arterial disease: the San Diego Population Study. Circulation 2005; 112:2703 7. 25. Ix JH, Allison MA, Denenberg JO, Cushman M, Criqui MH. Novel cardiovascular risk factors do not completely explain the higher prevalence of peripheral arterial disease among African Americans. The San Diego Population Study. J Am Coll Cardiol 2008;51:2347 54. 26. Wang JC, Criqui MH, Denenberg JO, McDermott MM, Golomb BA, Fronek A. Exertional leg pain in patients with and without peripheral arterial disease. Circulation 2005;112:3501 8. 27. Criqui MH, Alberts MJ, Fowkes FG, Hirsch AT, O Gara PT, Olin JW, for Writing Group 2. Atherosclerotic Peripheral Vascular Disease Symposium II: screening for atherosclerotic vascular diseases: should nationwide programs be instituted? Circulation 2008;118:2830 6. 28. Hirsch AT, Haskal ZJ, Hertzer NR, et al. ACC/AHA 2005 guidelines for the management of patients with peripheral arterial disease (lower extremity, renal, mesenteric, and abdominal aortic): executive summary: a collaborative report from the American Association for Vascular Surgery/Society for Vascular Surgery, Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions, Society for Vascular Medicine and Biology, Society of Interventional Radiology, and the ACC/AHA Task Force on Practice Guidelines (Writing Committee to Develop Guidelines for the Management of Patients With Peripheral Arterial Disease). J Am Coll Cardiol 2006;47:1239 312. 29. Holland-Letz T, Endres HG, Biedermann S, et al. Reproducibility and reliability of the ankle-brachial index as assessed by vascular experts, family physicians and nurses. Vasc Med 2007;12:105 12. Key Words: ankle-brachial index y atherosclerosis y cardiovascular events y peripheral arterial disease y risk factors y subclinical.