Low and Lower Fertility

Low and Lower Fertility

Ronald R. Rindfuss Minja Kim Choe Editors Low and Lower Fertility Variations across Developed Countries

Editors Ronald R. Rindfuss Department of Sociology and Carolina Population Center University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, NC, USA East-West Center Honolulu, HI, USA Minja Kim Choe East-West Center Honolulu, HI, USA ISBN 978-3-319-21481-8 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-21482-5 ISBN 978-3-319-21482-5 (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: 2015952636 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www. springer.com)

Foreword Over the past few decades, countries around the world have experienced rapid economic growth along with far-reaching changes in social and political conditions. In many countries, these developments have been accompanied by fertility declines to very low levels. Today, the total fertility rates (TFR) for most economically developed countries range from less than 1.0 to 2.1 children per woman. As recently as 20 30 years ago, women in some of these countries were having, on average, four or more children. Within the general trend toward lower fertility, current fertility levels and the pace of fertility decline have been widely diverse. This diversity is important because total fertility rates of 1.2 or 2.1 children per woman have very different effects on population age structure and population growth, as well as important implications for institutions and policies. As a result, fertility levels and trends have captured the attention of demographers and policymakers alike. Research, however, has yet to produce a comprehensive understanding of fertility behavior across lowfertility countries. Early in 2013, the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) and the East-West Center agreed to collaborate on a project to improve understanding of the patterns and causes of fertility decline in various social, economic, cultural, and political settings and to consider the associated policy implications. The project identified low-fertility countries with varying fertility levels and trends, cultural backgrounds, social patterns, and economic conditions. For each country selected, an expert scholar was invited to write a country paper and participate in a series of workshops for discussions with experts from other countries. The essays in this volume are revised versions of the papers presented at the first workshop of the project, held at the East-West Center in December 2013. The papers in this first volume address the fertility situation in Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, and the United States. The second volume, based on papers presented at a second workshop that was held at the East- West Center in August 2014, will discuss the factors that are influencing fertility in Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Norway, Spain, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. It is hoped that the collection of papers presented v

vi Foreword in these two volumes will serve as an important reference point for all those interested in fertility variation across economically advanced countries. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs of the Government of the Republic of Korea provided generous funding for the project. Thanks are due to East-west Center s Research Program for project coordination and institutional support. On behalf of KIHASA, I am grateful to East-west Center Senior Fellows Minja Kim Choe, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Ronald R. Rindfuss for coordinating project activities, to Sidney B. Westley for expert editorial management, and to Ki-Tae Park for research assistance. Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs Seoul, South Korea Byong-ho Tchoe

Contents 1 Diversity across Low-Fertility Countries: An Overview... 1 Ronald R. Rindfuss and Minja Kim Choe 2 China s Long Road toward Recognition of Below-Replacement Fertility... 15 Wang Feng 3 Singapore s Pro-natalist Policies: To What Extent Have They Worked?... 33 Gavin W. Jones and Wajihah Hamid 4 Understanding Ultra-Low Fertility in Hong Kong... 63 Stuart Basten 5 Below-Replacement Fertility in Japan: Patterns, Factors, and Policy Implications... 87 Noriko O. Tsuya 6 Lowest-Low Fertility and Policy Responses in South Korea... 107 Samsik Lee and Hyojin Choi 7 Variation in U.S. Fertility: Low and Not so Low, but Not Lowest-Low... 125 S. Philip Morgan 8 The Evolution of Population and Family Policy in Australia... 143 Peter McDonald 9 The Dutch Fertility Paradox: How the Netherlands Has Managed to Sustain Near-Replacement Fertility... 161 Melinda C. Mills vii