Food Trends and Consumer Demands Airports Council International November 6, 2007
A CULINARY PHENOMENON The Plate Is Flat A BRIEF HISTORY OF FOOD IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Mark V. Erickson
What Made the Food World Flat? Rising disposable income (domestic and abroad) Increase in international travel Opening of global trade New wave of immigration Increasing importance of food away from home due to socio-economic trends Increased appetite for excitement and variety The impact of FoodTV and other media Competitive environment has shifted power to the consumer - and they have DEMANDS
Demand #1 Bring Me Exciting Flavors
WAS IS French Food Ketchup Butter Baguette Saute Gourmet Guide Michelin World Flavors Salsa Olive Oil Flatbreads Wok Seared Authentic Zagat
The Mediterranean
Latin America
Asia
Demand #2 Make it Healthy and Tasty
What We ve Learned Consumers DO want to eat healthfully But, they are NOT willing to sacrifice satisfaction
WAS IS Nutrition Eat Low Fat Carbs are Good Cholesterol Quantitative Dietitian Diet Health Eat Good Fat Low GI is Good Trans Fats Qualitative Chef Lifestyle
What s s The News This Week?
Why Should Foodservice Operators Even Care? Foodservice Share of Total Industry Sales Foodservice $144B 41% Retail $204B 59% Foodservice $273B 46% Retail $318B 54% Foodservice $501B 50.8% Retail $497B 49.2% 1982 = $348B 1992 = $591B 2006 = $998B Retail sales equivalent Source: Technomic
U.S. Dietary Guidelines Joint effort by the USDA and the Dept. of HHS Updated every 5 years (since 1980) Geared to Policymakers, Healthcare Providers, Nutritionists and Nutrition Educators as well as Individuals Generally serve as a bellwether for food trends and food media as it relates to health.
The Dietary Pyramid 1992-2005
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1985 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1986 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1987 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1988 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1989 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1990 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1991 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1992 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1993 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1994 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1995 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1996 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1997 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1998 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 1999 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2000 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2001 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20% 24% 25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2002 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20% 24% 25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2003 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20% 24% 25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2004 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20% 24% 25%
Obesity Trends* Among U.S. Adults BRFSS, 2005 (*BMI 30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5 4 person) No Data <10% 10% 14% 15% 19% 20% 24% 25% 29% 30%
A Pyramid With A Shaky Foundation? All fats marked as bad All carbohydrates marked as good Did little to protect Americans from major chronic diseases* (*McCullough and colleagues, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition,, 2000)
2005 Dietary Pyramid www.mypyramid.com Grains Vegetables Fruits Milk Meat & Beans Oils Discretionary Calories Physical Activity
Why Is It So Hard To Get It Right? Diet and Health Issues Are Complex Research Can Be Misleading Media Plays To A Public Looking For Easy Answers or, Excuses Government Agencies Are Conflicted Marketing Is About Selling - Not Informing
Dietary Fats: The Good, the Bad, and the Worst What Research Indicates Mono-Unsaturated reduces LDL, generally regarded as good for you Poly-Unsaturated reduces LDL, generally regarded as good for you Saturated raises total cholesterol (LDL and HDL), generally regarded as bad for you Trans raises LDL, lowers HDL, generally regarded as really bad for you.
What s Simple Is Really It s more than the difference between simple (sugars) and complex carbohydrates (starches) Better to classify by effects on Blood Sugar and Insulin. Complex
Glycemic Index (GI)
Demand #3 Let Me Feel Righteous About My Food Choices
In the future menus will be more influenced by social and ethical matters. N=101
In the future menus will be more influenced by social and ethical matters. Disagree Undecided Agree N=101
In the future menus will be more influenced by social and ethical matters. 9% 16% Disagree Undecided Agree 75% N=101
In the future menus will be more influenced by social and ethical matters. 9% 16% Disagree Undecided Agree 75% N=101
In the future menus will be more influenced by social and ethical matters. 9% 16% Disagree Undecided Agree 75% N=101
On a scale of 1-5 rate the probability that the following issues will affect menus in the future? Sustainability Environmentally friendly Locally sourced Hormone free Organic Fair Trade GMO's Animal rights 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total respondents = 91
In Summary American s s taste in food is changing more rapidly than many operators are prepared to deal with. Consumers want healthier foods, but, will not tolerate feeling deprived of flavor. Consumers are paying more attention to broad food issues that are matters of social concern.
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