Acrylonitrile World Market Overview Synthetic Fibres Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 2015 Seoul, 8 May 2015 (Michelle) Yang Qin
AGENDA Trends in Global Acrylonitrile Production Downstream Sector Analysis Supply and Demand Balances Lessons from Other Markets Market Prospects Conclusions
WORLD ACRYLONITRILE CAPACITY Thousand Metric Tons 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe South America North America 1,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
WORLD ACRYLONITRILE PRODUCTION TRENDS Rapid growth in capacity New Capacity ktpa Year Anqing Petrochemical, China 130 2013 Tong Suh Petrochemical, S Korea 245 2013 Shandong Keluer, China 130 2014 Shanghai Secco, China 260 2015 Jiangsu Sailboat, China 260 2015 SABIC/Asahi Kasei, Saudi Arabia 240 2017 Ineos Tianjin, China 260 2017 Capacity Shut Down Asahi Kasei, Japan (250) 2014
WORLD ACRYLONITRILE PRODUCTION TRENDS Increasing availability of propylene and ammonia feedstock Propane dehydrogenation units in North America and Asia Ammonia plants in North America and the Middle East Low profitability
WORLD ACRYLONITRILE PRODUCTION TRENDS Margin = Acrylonitrile 1.1 x Propylene $/ton 2,000 Capacity (ktpa) 7,200 1,500 1,000 500 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 Capacity Acrylonitrile Margin
DOWNSTREAM SECTOR ANALYSIS Acrylic fibre losing dominance in acrylonitrile downstream Slow growth in most sectors, except polyacrylamide Strongest growth in low-volume consuming industries
ACRYLONITRILE CONSUMPTION BY END USE Thousand Metric Tons (of acrylonitrile) 6000 Other 5000 4000 3000 Nitrile Rubber Acrylamide ABS/SAN Adiponitrile Acrylic Fibre 2000 1000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE PRODUCTION TRENDS Global acrylic fibre production has declined by an average 2% per year during the last five years (Montefibre, Radici) Production in 2014 was 1.735 million tons registering a decline of 9% from 2013 Acrylic fibre costs continue to suffer from propylene prices and high acrylonitrile conversion costs Despite a sharp fall in production over the past 10 years, Tecnon OrbiChem expects modest (0.4%) production growth in the next 10 years, due to weak supplies of wool and cotton and continuing technical advantages for acrylic fibre in certain markets
WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE CAPACITY Million Metric Tons 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe South America North America 0.5 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
WORLD ACRYLIC FIBRE PRODUCTION Million Metric Tons 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe South America North America 0.5 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ABS MARKET TRENDS Steady growth, in line with economic growth in most regions Chronic overcapacity diminishes profitability Styrene prices guide ABS competitiveness Free-trade agreements encourage Korean exports Exchange rate fluctuations disrupt trade flows
WORLD ABS CAPACITY Million Metric Tons 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 China Northeast Asia S & SE Asia ME & Africa East Europe West Europe South America North America 1.0 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ACRYLAMIDE MARKET TRENDS North American shale gas boom fuels consumption growth Water treatment remains biggest end-use, but growth is slow Pulp and paper markets are also mature
OTHER DOWNSTREAM MARKETS Nitrile rubber market growth is slow but steady New adiponitrile plant to come on stream this year in Shandong Spectacular growth in carbon fibre demand, but volumes are low
ACRYLONITRILE SUPPLY AND DEMAND Thousand Metric Tons 7,500 Capacity to Produce 6,500 5,500 4,500 Consumption 3,500 2,500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ACRYLONITRILE SUPPLY AND DEMAND Consistent overcapacity Large producers manage operating rates globally Relatively stable trade flows among regions Japanese exports reduced after 2014 closures New capacities in China may reduce imports from the Americas Margins are likely to remain depressed
LESSONS FROM OTHER MARKETS POLYESTER Margin = PTA 0.67x PX ($/ton) 300 Capacity (ktpa) 90,000 200 100 0 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Capacity PTA Margin
LESSONS FROM OTHER MARKETS ADIPIC ACID Margin = Adipic Acid 0.7x Benzene ($/ton) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Capacity (ktpa) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Capacity Adipic Acid Margin
ACRYLONITRILE PROFITABILITY Margin = Acrylonitrile 1.1 x Propylene $/ton 2,000 Capacity (ktpa) 7,200 1,500 1,000 500 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 Capacity Acrylonitrile Margin
ACRYLONITRILE MARKET PROSPECTS Ineos/Sinopec intellectual property dispute Possible Montefibre Hispania acrylic fibre restart Continued conversion of acrylic fibre capacity to carbon fibre; output volumes are often reduced New demand for ABS resins in 3D printing
CONCLUSIONS Acrylonitrile profitability will remain low because capacity is expanding faster than demand is growing Increasing self-sufficiency in China will reduce inter-regional trade; exports from the Americas to Asia are likely to decline, despite seasonal cost advantages Slow growth to continue in acrylic fibre markets Low oil prices will reduce demand for polyacrylamide in fracking operations Carbon fibre production is growing rapidly, but very little acrylonitrile is consumed
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