Using Food Purchasing Data For Population Level Surveillance Giles Quick Kantar Worldpanel
SINCE 2005 NUTRITIONAL VALUES COMBINED WITH PURCHASE VOLUME TO PROVIDE NUTRIENT VOLUMES, TRENDS AND SOURCE fats carbohydrates salt sugars energy (kj, kcal) fibre saturates protein
HAS CHANGED
HEALTH AND THE RECESSION HEALTHY CHOICES CORRELATED WITH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Millions of servings of food chosen for health 36,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 In Home Consumption 12 m/e
SALT GROWTH BEHIND OVERALL GROCERY VOLUMES NUTRITIONAL VALUES: YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGE % YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Hholds Spend Volume (Nut) Packs 0.5 1.4 1.8 3.5 Energy Protein Fibre Carbohydrate Sugars Fat Saturates Sodium Sodium excl 1.1 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.5 2.7 3.1 2.8 9.1 Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing 52 w/e 26 Dec 2010 Worldpanel Nutrition
SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN SALT (EXCLUDING TABLE SALT) OVER LAST FEW YEARS BUT NOW SLOWING Based on Take Home purchasing of Food & Drink Kg s 64,000,000 62,000,000 60,000,000 Sodium exc Table Salt Kgs 58,000,000 56,000,000 54,000,000 52,000,000 50,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Kantar Worldpanel Nutritional purchasing Worldpanel Nutrition Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing 52 w/e 26 Dec 2010
THE SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN TABLE SALT PURCHASING (BAD WEATHER INFLUENCED) REDUCING THE CONTRIBUTION OF OTHER CATEGORIES SUCH AS DAIRY AND BREAD Salt Dairy Products Bread Savoury Home Cking exc Fresh Meat Total Frozen Morning Goods Canned Goods Chilled Convenience exc RM Total Milk Frozen Prepared Foods Table Sauce+Condiment Yellow Fats Total Cheese Biscuits Take Home Savouries Breakfast Cereals Chilled Ready Meals 8 7.1 6.7 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.5 11.9 52 w/e 27 Dec 09 52 w/e 26 Dec 10 24.1 Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing 52 w/e 26 Dec 2010 Worldpanel Nutrition
CAN CHANGE
WRAPPED BREAD CHOICE EXISTS THE CHALLENGE IS TO DRIVE SUFFICIENT CONSUMER CONCERN & ACTION SALT CONTENT PER 100g 0.19g 0.90g 21% 0.44g Reduced salt over 4 years 79%
CHILLED READY MEALS - EVEN MORE CHOICE EXISTS THE CHALLENGE IS TO DRIVE SUFFICIENT CONSUMER CONCERN & ACTION SATURATED FAT CONTENT PER 100g 0.1g 9.0g 2.2g 27% Reduced sat. fat over 4 years 73%
DAIRY CONTRIBUTING FOR 1/3 RD OF ALL SATURATES BOUGHT SATURATES: % OF CATEGORIES Dairy Products Yellow Fats Total Cheese Total Milk Fresh Meat Biscuits Take Home Confectionery Ambient Cakes+Pastries Chilled Convenience exc RM Frozen Confectionery Frozen Prepared Foods Other Dairy Savoury Home Cooking Morning Goods Hens Eggs Take Home Savouries Chilled Ready Meals 6.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.3 2 1.9 1.8 1.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 9.9 13.9 52 w/e 27 Dec 09 52 w/e 26 Dec 10 39
% on promotion SALT PURCHASE RELATIVELY UNDER PROMOTED BUT SAT FATS ARE AHEAD OF OVERALL GROCERY PROMOTED LEVELS % Nutrients sold on Promotion 37 36 35 34 36 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 32 31 31 30 29 28 Total Sales Saturates Energy Fibre Carbs Sugars Protein Sodium Total Food & Drink: Take Home Purchasing 52 w/e 31 October 2010
CROSS CATEGORY SWITCHING IS HARD TO DRIVE 1% 55% Out of home consumption source KWP Usage
A LESS AFFLUENT NUTRITIONAL UNDERCLASS EXISTS DE social class indexed Take Home purchasing of Food & Drink Yr to Dec 2010 on total GB 104.5 102.2 100.9 96.4 96 Sodium Saturates Calories Fibre Achievement of 5-a-day
WILL CHANGE
MANUFACTURERS HAVE RESPONDED POSITIVELY REFORMULATION ACTIVITY IN UK BREAKFAST CEREALS MARKET Based on Breakfast Cereals skus sold in the 3 months to Dec 2010 50% of current Breakfast Cereals SKU s have reduced sodium levels between Dec 2006 and 2010
MANY CATEGORIES SHOWING SALT DECLINES VIA REFORMULATION/ MIX Take Home purchasing Yr to Dec 2010 vs 2008: % chg in Sodium excluding market growth Breakfast Cereals Cheese -14.8-8.6 Based on Salt 2 year volume % chg mix/ reformulation only Chilled Ready Meals -6.3 Table Sauces & Condiments -4.6 Canned Goods -4.4 Chilled Conv exc RM -3.2 Bread -2.9 Savoury Home Cooking -2.2 Savouries CSNs -2.1 Kantar Worldpanel Nutritional purchasing
REFORMULATION WORKS! Two thirds Of change is typically driven from reformulation rather than consumer switching Salt reduction
Better for customers (wellbeing) GOVERNMENT PUSH RESPOND AT AFFORDABLE COST WIN,WIN IDENTIFY AND INNOVATE Worse for manufacturer Better for manufacturer LOSE, LOSE DIVEST, REFORMULATE OR COMMERCIAL TURNROUND NO HEALTH ROLE IDENTIFY ROLE IN DIET Worse for customers (*wellbeing)
Rest of market %change ONLY HALF (55%) OF THE TOP 100 FOOD AND DRINK MARKETS HAVE FASTER GROWTH THAN AVERAGE FOR THE HEALTHIEST 20% Largest 100 Food and Drink Markets: Healthier (Top 20%) vs The Rest (80%) per category, based on nutrient profiling scores Take Home purchasing Yr on Yr %Spend Change 52w/e 23 Jan 11 Healthy declines 30 Chilled Juice/Drinks, 25 Ethnic Ingredients, Frozen Pizza, Baked Beans, Cheese, Breakfast 20 Cereals, Ambient Cakes 15 10 5 0-30 -20-10 -5 0 10 20 30 40 50-10 -15-20 -25 Healthier %change Healthy growth Chilled and Frozen Ready Meals Canned Veg, Fresh Sausages, Yogurt Drinks, Biscuits Bars Bread
CHILLED READY MEALS IS ONE MARKET WHERE HEALTH(IER) LINES ARE PERFORMING WELL Based on Chilled Ready Meals Healthier (Top 20%) vs The Rest (80%) per category based on nutrient profiling scores Take Home purchasing Yr on Yr %Spend Change 52w/e 23 Jan 11 Total Market 8.4 Healthiest (20%) 24.5 The Rest (80%) 5.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % SPEND CHANGE
HAS CHANGED CAN CHANGE WILL CHANGE Healthy choices are moving up consumer s agenda but choice is correlated with confidence Changing cross category habits is difficult & slow but an important long term ambition Wide intra-category nutritional choice exists but consumer awareness may be an issue Reformulation is a major means to positive nutritional change & in the UK is the major driver of success over the past 4 years.