Regulating Marijuana in California April 7, 2016 Patrick Murphy and John Carnevale With research support from Talib Jabbar
If California decides to legalize recreational marijuana use, it should: Begin with a relatively tight regulatory strategy Create a single market Build into legislation and regulations a capacity to change Require reporting and data collection to guide future policy decisions 2
Nationwide trend of relaxing marijuana prohibitions Medical In 1996, California passes medical marijuana Today, 24 states and DC permit medical use; almost one-half of the population Recreational Four states and DC have legalized recreational use; 5.6% of the population California and as many as 11 other states could have 2016 ballot initiatives 58% of the population could have access to medical use, recreational use, or both by end of 2016 3
California s approach to marijuana differs from federal law Federal government makes marijuana a controlled substance (1970) California has gradually relaxed marijuana laws 1 oz. possession = misdemeanor (1975) Medical marijuana legalized (1996) 1 oz. possession = citation/fine (2010) Medical marijuana dispensaries regulated by legislature (2015) Current federal position remains unclear 4
Dramatic drop in marijuana-related misdemeanor arrests 70,000 Marijuana felony 60,000 Marijuana misdemeanor 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5
Support for legalization in California has grown Likely voter support rose from 49 percent (2010) to 55 percent (2015) Several 2016 ballot initiatives have been filed; one likely to emerge % Californians support for marijuana legalization has risen slightly since 2010 80 60 40 20 49 49 51 51 48 47 46 45 52 45 47 Yes, legal No, not legal 49 51 53 44 45 0 May 10 Sep 10 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 13 Mar 14 Oct 14 Mar 15 6
A regulatory framework needs to cover five key areas Cultivation, production, processing Sales, consumption, and possession Taxes and finance Public health and safety Governance 7
Cultivation, production, and processing Multiple goals in this area: Reduce illegal market, limit diversion, protect environment, reduce criminalization How did other states approach the problem? Both states restrict the number of licenses CO allows ownership in both production and retail WA does not Both require strict product tracking and reporting Neither state include environmental provisions 8
Restrictions provide control, carry tradeoffs A tightly regulated market would Limit number of licenses Limit size of cultivation Track seed-to-sale production Establish strict environmental and water use requirements Trade-off: A tighter market means more production remains illegal and unregulated 9
Public health and safety Multiple goals in this area Limit abuse and dependence, protect public safety, prevent impaired driving How did other states approach the problem? Both WA and CO established impairment standard Both have supported development of prevention and education efforts Both have seen increases in number of drivers testing positive 10
More drivers test positive in Colorado and Washington Drivers 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Colorado 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Drivers 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Washington 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Tests conducted Marijuana detected Above confirmation level* Tests conducted Marijuana detected Above impairment standard* 11
Californians already use marijuana and drive; state will need to educate and deter 350 300 Marijuana Marijuana, with alcohol levels above legal limit Marijuana, with alcohol within legal limits Traffic fatalities 250 200 150 100 50 0 12
Elements of a tightly regulated marijuana market Regulatory area Cultivation and production Sales, use, and consumption Taxes and finance Public health and safety Governance Recommendations Limited number of licenses and size of cultivations; seed-to-sale tracking; strict environmental and water use requirements. Sales limited to individuals 21 and older; retail outlets restricted to marijuana-only stores; home grows prohibited. A sales and/or excise tax as a percentage of selling price. Aggressive prevention/education campaign aimed at youth; funded research to develop an impairment standard; substance abuse treatment for the uninsured. A single regulatory system that requires reporting and data collection across many indicators; built in reporting and impact assessment. 13
Regulating Marijuana in California April 7, 2016 Patrick Murphy and John Carnevale With research support from Talib Jabbar
Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Patrick Murphy (murphy@ppic.org; 415-291-4455) Thank you for your interest in this work. 15