Vaccine Impact Mdelling Cnsrtium Annual meeting 2017 - Summary meeting reprt Windsr, UK February 28 March 2, 2017
Objectives f the Vaccine Impact Mdelling Cnsrtium The Vaccine Impact Mdelling Cnsrtium (VIMC) crdinates the nging wrk f mdelling grups prviding vaccine impact estimates t Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Fundatin (BMGF). The Cnsrtium strives t emphasize cnsistency, quality and efficiency amngst the emplyed mdels aiming t include at least tw independent mdels per disease, in rder t assess the rbustness f estimates t structural assumptins. Furthermre, the cnsrtium facilitates answering t Gavi and BMGF needs fr further analyses t guide plicy decisins. The Cnsrtium will prvide majr vaccine impact estimates in 2017, 2019 and 2021 t supprt Gavi and BMGF strategy and decisin making. The Cnsrtium will als establish a delivery platfrm t streamline the generatin f the mdelled impact estimates. In additin, twice a year the Cnsrtium secretariat will prvide a mdified updated f the estimates t ensure that Gavi and BMGF have the mst up-t-date data. The Cnsrtium is currently funded until the end f 2021 by Gavi and the BMGF thrugh a grant t Imperial Cllege Lndn, which is sub-cntracting individual mdelling grups t cntribute disease-specific estimates f the vaccine impact. Backgrund The VIMC first annual meeting tk place in Windsr, UK n February 28-March 2, 2017. The meeting was set t ccur early in the year and shrtly after the Cnsrtium annuncement. The key bjectives f the meeting were a) t intrduce all the mdelling grups t the secretariat members and t each ther (especially relevant fr the new members); b) t disseminate the infrmatin n the verall cnsrtium peratins and future strategy; c) t slicit feedback n a range f strategy tpics frm all participating mdellers; and d) t establish small wrking grups fcusing n the technical tpics f relevance acrss all disease mdels. Summary Day 1: Tuesday, 28 February 2017 Welcme and pening lectures: The Cnsrtium annual meeting participants were welcmed by Tve Ryman, Prgramme Officer at the BMGF, Olivia Bullck, Prgramme Officer at Gavi, and Tini Garske, the VIMC C-rdinatr. The presentatins n behalf f the tw funders fcused n cntextualising the VIMC: the underlying mtivatin fr establishing the Cnsrtium and the imprtance f the vaccine impact estimates. The use f the data generated acrss the mdelling grups was als discussed. The VIMC C-rdinatr, Tini Garske, welcmed the meeting attendees and gave a brief verview f the Cnsrtium; she stated the main bjectives fr the annual meeting welcming input frm the attendees n the varius Cnsrtium prcesses and future strategy. Neil Fergusn, Prfessr f Mathematical Bilgy and Directr f the MRC Centre fr Outbreak Analysis and Mdelling, and Azra Ghani, Chair f Infectius Disease Epidemilgy at Imperial Cllege Lndn, presented pening lectures fcusing n the field f vaccine mdelling, with dengue and malaria vaccine examples. 2
Day 2: Wednesday, 1 March 2017 Mdelling grup intrductins: The mrning included brief presentatins by all attending mdelling grups (13 in ttal). Each grup was asked t intrduce their team members and describe key mdel develpments frm the past year as well as the freseen challenges and future mdel develpment directin. VIMC intrductin: Fllwing the brief Cnsrtium intrductin frm the previus day, Dr Tini Garske presented a mre in-depth discussin f the VIMC structure, scientific aims and peratins fr the next five years. The Cnsrtium will be led by the VIMC secretariat based at Imperial Cllege Lndn. The Management Grup, cnsisting f senir academics and Gavi and BMGF representatives, will serve as the directin-setting and decisin-making bdy with input frm the Scientific Advisry Bard (named members available as an appendix t this dcument). The Cnsrtium as a whle will be supprted by the secretariat administrative and technical teams, wh were intrduced t the meeting participants (the Cnsrtium structure diagram available as an appendix t this dcument). The VIMC will priritise cnsistency f the existing Gavi vaccine mdelling prtfli and, with time, aim t imprve the quality and efficiency f the impact estimates generatin. As part f the efficiency agenda, the secretariat will wrk n develping a delivery platfrm infrastructure t hst the disease burden and vaccine impact estimates. The VIMC will facilitate annual meetings and visits between the mdelling grups; will hld cuntry wrkshps in high-burden cuntries identified by the funders: Pakistan, India, Nigeria, and Ethipia (PINE). The secretariat s research agenda will fcus n the methdlgical develpment f the emplyed mdels and the aggregatin f estimates acrss diseases, while keeping in mind the risk f duble-cunting the benefits frm several vaccines, etc. The Cnsrtium funding scheme and the implicatins fr the sub-agreements with the participating mdelling grups were als discussed. Imperial Cllege Lndn was awarded funding fr five years thrugh tw research agreements: ne with the BMGF t cver secretariat csts, travel, meeting, publicatins fees, and ne with Gavi t fund the sub-cntractrs wrk. The sub-agreements with the mdelling grups will need t cmply with the terms and cnditins presented t Imperial Cllege, specifically relating t annual budget review and sensitivity arund the timing f publicatins. The verall prject timeline was presented as belw: 2017: First set f impact estimates within the cnsrtium / Fcus n cnsistency 2018 2019: Mdel review and cmparisns / Define targets fr develpment 2020 2021: Cntinued mdel imprvements Finally, the prpsed wrk plan fr 2017 was reviewed taking int accunt the deliverables deadlines fr the mdelling grups in rder t present the first set f vaccine impact estimates generated by the VIMC t the funders in early 2018. Delivery platfrm dem: Fllwing the VIMC intrductin, Rich FitzJhn, Senir R Applicatin Develper frm Imperial Cllege Lndn, presented a pilt dem f the delivery platfrm. Amng ther features, the 3
platfrm will aim t establish an audit trail between riginal data and reprts, fster cnsistency acrss data sets, minimise ad-hc data mdificatin, and simplify data validatin. Gavi Operatinal Frecast: Gavi vaccine implementatin and market shaping team (Karine Ammar, Jn Pearman, and Matt Blakely) presented the backgrund infrmatin n the updated methdlgy fr the rganisatin s demand frecast. The presenters highlighted the imprtance f dcumenting and understating all the assumptins used in the frecasting prcess. It is essential fr the mdellers interacting with the Gavi frecast t be aware f the applied methdlgy. VIMC Strategy discussins: In the afternn, the meeting participants were split int smaller grups t discuss fur tpics pertaining t the VIMC peratins and strategy. The main gal f the sessin was t cllect input frm the participating mdellers t shape future decisins and prcesses. Mdel quality standards: The Cnsrtium aims t drive methdlgical develpment f all mdels twards mre rbust and cnsistent estimates. In rder t prvide Gavi and BMGF with a transparently develped, well-dcumented set f estimates, emplyment f quality standards acrss all mdels is prpsed. Mdel review and imprvement prcess: After the delivery f 2017 utputs, the Cnsrtium plans t review the mdels based n a set f agreed quality and cnsistency imprvement gals fr all mdels. Crss-cnsrtium cllabratin: The Cnsrtium will enhance cllabratin pprtunities acrss the mdelling grups and will ffer a platfrm fr knwledge transfer between the mdellers frm different disease areas. Cnsrtium publicatin strategy: A key rle f the secretariat is t supprt and crdinate scientific publicatins that the VIMC will generate ver the next five years. An agreed strategy is required. Publicatins based n sensitive input data prvided by Gavi (in particular future vaccinatin scenaris) may be subject t prir apprval frm Gavi. Day 3: Thursday, 2 March 2017 Health ecnmic and systems mdelling: The mrning sessin was pened by a jint presentatin shared between several grups fcusing n health ecnmics. Samantha Clark presented the latest results n the antimicrbial csts averted n behalf f the DOVE team, fllwed by a presentatin frm Stephane Verguet n pverty and equity benefits f vaccines using extended cst-effectiveness analysis. The sessin was clsed by a presentatin by Mark Jit and a discussin n the fcus f the health ecnmics questins that the Cnsrtium culd aim t address ver the next five years. 4
Burden estimatin and data gaps: Lisa Lee pened the discussin n imprtant data gaps that the mdellers face during the prcess f impact estimates generatin. Tini Garske then psed a questin t all participating mdelling grups n the use f cunter-factual scenaris and impact by year f vaccinatin. Sub-natinal cuntry estimates: The mrning sessin was clsed by a presentatin by Nick Grassly fcusing n the use f subnatinal cuntry estimates. The benefits f using sub-natinal estimates include aviding bias in vaccine impact and burden estimates and helping with advcacy and planning. Hwever, using sub-natinal data culd als pse challenges as it can be cmplex and time-cnsuming. There is a need therefre t identify the apprpriate gegraphic scale and take advantage f the existing sub-natinal data surces. The presentatin was fllwed by a discussin n the availability f sub-natinal data and feasibility f including this level f detail when prducing impact estimates. Technical wrking grups: The afternn was allcated t small wrking grups fcusing n several tpics f relevance t the wider cnsrtium. Summary f the meeting utcmes and next steps The main bjectives set fr the first VIMC annual meeting were successfully met. The mdelling grups were intrduced t the secretariat members as well as the new mdellers jining the Cnsrtium. The structural set-up and administrative prcesses f the cnsrtium were presented t the mdelling grups. Cnsiderable time was dedicated t fruitful discussins amng cnsrtium members regarding strategic plans and technical tpics f interest acrss diseases, which prvided valuable feedback t the secretariat and will shape the future directins f the cnsrtium. This led t many cncrete actin pints and further questins, and several technical wrking grups were cnceived. The main wrk streams fr the first year will cmprise f the delivery platfrm develpment, maintaining cnsistency acrss the Gavi prtfli and successfully prducing the 2017 rund f impact estimates as well as establishing the prcesses t supprt the wider Cnsrtium peratins (i.e. mdel review and imprvement prcess, data access and quality, general cllabratin). The secretariat will crdinate the respnsibilities acrss varius teams based n the next steps and suggestins. 5