Obtaining Water Data for Oil Shale Research Using HydroSeek Brian Gallagher Ecotonics Environmental Scientists 27 th Oil Shale Symposium October 15-19, 19, 2007 Colorado School of Mines
Major Topics 1. HydroSeek Search Engine 2. Piceance Creek Basin Data 3. Visual Patterns in Data
White River Colorado River Meeker Piceance Creek Cameo Yellow Creek Fruita
1. HydroSeek Ontology Aided Search Engine
1. HydroSeek Ontology Aided Search Engine Queries of Multiple Databases
1. HydroSeek Ontology Aided Search Engine Queries of Multiple Databases GIS and Index Driven Searches
1. HydroSeek Ontology Aided Search Engine Queries of Multiple Databases GIS and Index Driven Searches Developed by Bora Beran of Drexel University with NSF CUAHSI Support
Keyword Discharge, Stream GO!
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2. Piceance Basin Data Colorado River at Cameo White River near Meeker Piceance Creek at White River Yellow Creek at White River
Colorado River Daily Discharge at Cameo, CO 1934-2007 40000 35000 30000 25000 CFS 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Linear Trendline Oct-30 Oct-35 Oct-40 Oct-45 Oct-50 Oct-55 Oct-60 Oct-65 Oct-70 Oct-75 Oct-80 Oct-85 Oct-90 Oct-95 Oct-00 Oct-05 Oct-10 Colorado River Annual Discharge at Cameo, CO 1934-2007 8000 7000 74 year mean = 3,810 cfs or 2.76 million acre-ft per year CFS 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Linear Trendline 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
White River Daily Discharge Near Meeker, CO 1901-2007 CFS 1200 1000 White River Annual Discharge Near Meeker, CO 1901-2007 103 yr mean = 620 cfs or 449,000 acre-ft per year 800 CFS 600 400 200 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Piceance Creek Daily Discharge at White River, CO 1970-2007 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10/1/65 10/1/70 10/1/75 10/1/80 10/1/85 10/1/90 10/1/95 CFS 10/1/00 10/1/05 10/1/10 Piceance Creek Annual Discharge at White River, CO 1970-2007 140 120 38 year mean = 36 cfs or 26,100 acre-ft per year 100 CFS 80 60 40 20 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Yellow Creek Daily Discharge at White River, CO 1972-2007 Yellow Creek Daily Discharge at White River, CO 1972-2007 500 400 300 200 100 0 Oct-70 Oct-75 Oct-80 Oct-85 Oct-90 Oct-95 CFS Oct-00 Oct-05 Oct-10 Yellow Creek Annual Discharge at White River, CO 1972-2007 12 10 35 yr mean = 3 cfs or 2,175 acre-ft per year 8 CFS CFS 6 4 2 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Summary of Water Data Station Parameter 1973 1 2007 2 Comments Colorado River Cameo, CO Discharge Dis. Solids 4,138 cfs 387 ppm 3,810 cfs 496 ppm Fruita 30 ml west > 7,600 cfs > 850 ppm White River Meeker, CO Discharge Dis. Solids 638 cfs 344 ppm 620 cfs 370 ppm 2007 flow based on longer period Piceance Creek White River, CO Discharge Dis. Solids 17 cfs 2,500 ppm 36 cfs 1,750 ppm 2007 flow based on longer and wetter period Yellow Creek White River, CO Discharge Dis. Solids 1.4 cfs 2,140 ppm 3 cfs 2,447 ppm Extreme peak flows especially in the Fall Source 1 1973: US DOI Final Environmental Statement on the Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program 2 2007: Data Collected with HydroSeek in this Paper
3. Analysis of Data Patterns Visual Patterns in Data Wet and Dry Phases Long-Term Oscillations Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Colorado River Annual Discharge Near Cameo, CO 1934-2007 8000 7000 6000 CFS 5000 4000 Median 3600 cfs 3000 2007 2000 1934 1000 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Colorado River Annual Discharge Near Cameo, CO 1934-2007 8000 7000 6000 Characterization of phases as wet or dry 19 yrs 15 wet 4 dry 24 yrs 14 dry 10 wet 22 yrs 15 wet 7 dry 8 yrs 7 dry 1 wet 5000 CFS 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Colorado River Annual Discharge Near Cameo, CO 1934-2007 8000 7000 19 yrs Wet 4220 cfs 24 yrs Dry 3531 cfs 22 yrs Wet 4158 cfs 8 yrs Dry 2869 cfs 6000 5000 CFS 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Colorado River Annual Discharge Near Cameo, CO 1934-2007 8000 7000 6000 19 years 24 years 22 years 8 years 43 yrs wet/dry period CFS 5000 4000 3000 polynomial trendline 2000 1000 0 1930 43 yrs trendline period 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
What Causes the Long-term Oscillation?
What Causes the Long-term Oscillation? Can a Future Recurrence be Predicted?
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Oscillation in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and Sea Level Pressures (SLP) in North Pacific Ocean > 20 o N. Latitude
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Oscillation in SST and SLP in N. Pacific Warm and Cool Phases 20-30 yrs
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Oscillation in SST and SLP in N. Pacific Warm and Cool Phases 20-30 yrs Periods Average about 50 Years
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Oscillation in SST and SLP in N. Pacific Warm and Cool Phases 20-30 yrs Periods Average about 50 Years Strongly Associated with Climate Changes
Warm Phase Positive Index Measured Along the Eastern Wedge Cool Phase Negative Index Measured Along the Eastern Wedge 1977 1999 Wet Period 1999 -? Dry Period Ref: Nate Mantua (mantua@atmos.washington.edu) JISAO
Std Dev s Water year values for PDO averaged from Nate Mantua s index table on internet 2.000 1.000 Std Dev s 0.000-1.000-2.000
PDO Index and Colorado River Discharge at Cameo, CO PDO Index Co River Flow at Cameo 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
PDO Index and Colorado River Discharge at Cameo, CO PDO Index? Co River Flow at Cameo 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Correlation Results PDO and Colorado River Flow PDO and Annual Discharge.14 5-yr Avg of PDO and Discharge.30 5-yr Avg and 1-yr Lag Discharge.34