Kevin Wong Strategic Intelligence Analyst Rocky Mountain High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area (RMHIDTA)
Outline Drug Policy 101 Arguments For and Against Legalization Marijuana Impact: Collateral Damages
Drug Policy 101 Has the War on Drugs Been a Failure?
Purpose of Drug Policy Limit the number of people using drugs Victims of crime 1. User 2. Family/Friends 3. Victim of Crime 4. Taxpayers
Marijuana Edible Related Deaths Kristine Kirk (Denver, CO) Levy Thamba Pongi (Denver, CO) SOURCE: Open Source Luke Goodman (Keystone, CO)
What are the factors that affect the rate of drug use?
1. Price 2. Availability 3. Perception of Risk 4. Public Attitude
What is success?
2013 and 2014 National Survey on Drug Use Americans age 12 and older (past month): 10% used illegal drugs 25% used tobacco 52% used alcohol SOURCE: National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2013 and 2014
Alcohol and Tobacco Heroin, Meth, Crack, Hallucinogens, Cocaine, Tranquilizers, Pain Relievers and Marijuana Hello G
Eliminate arrests for possession and sale Free up law enforcement resources Reduce traffic fatalities No increase in use, even among youth Added revenue generated through taxation Reduce profits for the drug cartels trafficking marijuana
Increases in: Marijuana related traffic fatalities Use among youth and adults People in drug treatment Diversion for unintended purposes Impacts and costs for public health and safety
Perspective: Colorado 600 500 516 Licensed Businesses 400 300 200 100 202 322 424 0 McDonalds Starbucks Recreational Marijuana Shops Medical Marijuana Dispensaries SOURCE: Colorado Department of Revenue/Starbucks Coffee Company/McDonalds Corporation, 2016
Impact What Does the Data Say?
Comparison Dates 2006 2008: Early Medical Marijuana Era 1,000 4,800 cardholders and 0 known dispensaries 2009 2012: Medical Marijuana Commercialization and Expansion Era 108,000 cardholders and 532 licensed dispensaries 2013 Present: Medical Marijuana Commercialization and Recreational Marijuana Era
Total Number of Statewide Traffic Deaths 800 700 Number of Deaths 600 500 400 300 200 535 554 548 465 450 447 Commercialization 472 481 488 Legalization 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)
Traffic Deaths Related to Marijuana Number of Fatalities 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 94 78 71 63 47 49 43 37 39 Legalization Commercialization 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), RMHIDTA
Total Traffic Deaths vs Traffic Deaths Related to Marijuana Commercialization Legalization 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), RMHIDTA
Operators Positive for Marijuana Marijuana and Alcohol 37% Marijuana and Other Drugs (No Alcohol) 15% Marijuana, Other Drugs and Alcohol 15% Marijuana ONLY 33% SOURCE: Colorado Department of Transportation/RMHIDTA 2014
Number of DUIDs, 2015 862 Number of DUIDs 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 SOURCE: Colorado State Patrol 347 DUIDs Marijuana Only 665 DUIDs Involving Marijuana Total Number of DUIDs
Percent of DUIDs Involving Marijuana 64% 63% 62% 60% Percent Positive 60% 58% 56% 54% 52% 55% 50% SOURCE: Larimer County Sherriff s Office 2013 2014 2015
Marijuana Use in Youth
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014 Youth (12-17 yrs) Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014 Colorado average for youth = 12.56 percent National average for youth = 7.22 percent Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among youth 74 percent higher than the national average Colorado youth use increased 20 percent (2013/2014 compared to 2011/2012) Nationally youth use declined 5 percent
Past Month Usage by 12 to 17 Year-Olds, 2013/2014 Colorado Average Legalized Recreational/Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014) Legalized Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014) Non-Legalized Medical Marijuana State (as of 2014) National Average SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014
Average Past Month Use by 12 to 17 Year-Olds, 2013/2014 12.0% 10.0% 8.52% 11.31% Average Percent 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 5.99% 0.0% Non-Medical Marijuana States Medical Marijuana States Recreational/Medical Marijuana States SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014
Colorado Average Past Month Use of Marijuana Ages 12 to 17 Years Average Percent 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 8.64% 2006-2008 (Pre-Commercialization) 20% Increase 10.37% 2009-2012 (Post-Commercialization) 21% Increase 12.56% 2013/2014 (Legalization) SOURCE: National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2013 and 2014
Percent of Total Suspensions in Colorado, 2004-2014 Percent of Total Suspensions 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3.2 3.2 Commercialization 5.0 5.1 4.4 3.0 3.1 3.1 5.4 6.4 Legalization Drug Violations Alcohol Violations 0 SOURCE: Colorado Department of Education
Percent of Total Expulsions in Colorado, 2004-2014 50 Percentage of Total Expulsions 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 25.7 38.8 34.8 23.7 24.3 26.2 25.6 Commercialization 36.6 41.7 41.9 Legalization Drug Violations Alcohol Violations SOURCE: Colorado Department of Education
Predominant Marijuana Violations 60% 51% 50% 42% Percent of Responses 40% 30% 20% 10% 1% 2% 4% 0% Student in possession of marijuana infused edibles Student sharing marijuana with other students Student selling marijuana to other students Student under the influence during school hours Student in possession of marijuana SOURCE: Colorado Association School Resource Officers (CASRO) and RMHIDTA, 2015
Student Marijuana Source 30% 29% 25% 25% 21% Percent of Responses 20% 15% 10% 18% 5% 1% 1% 2% 3% 0% Medical Marijuana Cardholders Medical Marijuana Caregivers Medical Marijuana Dispensaries Retail Marijuana Stores Black Market Parents Siblings/Other Family Members Friend who obtained it legally SOURCE: Colorado School Counselor Association (CSCA) and RMHIDTA, 2015
College-Age Marijuana Use
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014 College-Age Adults (18-25yr) Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014 Colorado average = 31.24 percent National average = 19.32 percent Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among college-age adults 62 percent higher than the national average Colorado college age use increased 17 percent (2013/2014 compared to 2011/2012) Nationally there was a 2 percent increase
College Age, 18 to 25 Years-Old, Past Month Marijuana Use Average Percentage 35 30 25 20 15 10 Commercialization Legalization 5 0 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 National Average 16.42 16.34 16.45 17.42 18.39 18.78 18.89 18.91 19.32 Colorado Average 21.43 22.21 23.44 24.28 26.35 27.26 26.81 29.05 31.24 Annual Averages of Data Collection SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014
Adult Marijuana Use
SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 & 2014 Adults (26+ yrs) Current Marijuana Use 2013/2014 Colorado average = 12.45 percent National average = 6.11 percent Colorado was ranked 1st in the nation for current marijuana use among adults 104 percent higher than the national average Adult use increased 63 percent compared to pre-legalization years 2011/2012 Nationally an increase of 21 percent
Adult, Ages 26+, Past Month Marijuana Use Average Percentage 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Commercialization Legalization 0 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 National Average 4.1 4.02 4.06 4.42 4.68 4.8 5.05 5.45 6.11 Colorado Average 5.32 5.88 6.88 7.31 8.86 8.19 7.63 10.13 12.45 Annual Averages of Data Collection SOURCE: SAMHSA.gov, National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 and 2014
Emergency Room Visits and Hospitalizations
Colorado Emergency Department Rates Likely Related to Marijuana 600 500 Legalization 443 554 Rates Per 100,000 400 300 200 313 358 100 0 13% Increase 25% Increase 19% Increase 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
Colorado Hospitalization Rates Likely Related to Marijuana 600 Legalization 524 Rates Per 100,000 500 400 300 200 267 236 Commercialization 330 340 290 255 387 438 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
Marijuana and Poison Control Cases
Adolescents, Ages 6 to 17, Average Number of Marijuana-Related Exposures 60 53 Average Number 50 40 30 20 10 0 15 2006-2008 Pre-Commercialization 67% Increase 25 2009-2012 Post-Commercialization 112% Increase 2013-2015 Legalization SOURCE: Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center
Children, Ages 0 to 5, Average Number of Marijuana-Related Exposures 35 35 30 Average Number 25 20 15 10 4 13 5 0 2006-2008 Pre-Commercialization SOURCE: Rocky Mountain Poison and Drug Center 225% Increase 2009-2012 Post-Commercialization 169% Increase 2013-2015 Legalization
Treatment Admissions Based on Criminal Justice Referrals Number of Admissions 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1,202 1,204 1,204 1,292 1,347 1,309 1,327 988 1,030 999 821 805 826 660 1,446 1,306 1,233 1,054 1,125 791 Ages 17 and Under Ages 18-25 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: Colorado Department of Human Services, Office of Behavioral Health
Diversion by Highway
Colorado Marijuana Interdiction Seizures (Incidents) Number of Seizures 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 54 41 281 Commercialization 92 57 58 321 274 288 Legalization 360 *358 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System
Colorado Marijuana Interdiction Seizures (Pounds) Average Number of Pounds 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2,763 2005-2008 Pre-Commercialization 27% Increase *3,506 2009-2015 Post-Commercialization SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System
Colorado Marijuana Destination States (*2015) (Total Reported Incidents Per State) SOURCE: El Paso Intelligence Center, National Seizure System *38 interdictions, destination: UNKNOWN
Diversion by Postal
Parcels Containing Marijuana from CO Destined for Another State 350 300 Legalization 320 Number of Parcels 250 200 150 100 50 0 207 158 Commercialization 36 0 15 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: United States Postal Inspection Service
Pounds of CO Marijuana Seized 700 Legalization Number of Pounds 600 500 400 300 200 Commercialization 262.00 493.05 469.91 100 0 57.20 68.20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: United States Postal Inspection Service
Colorado Marijuana Destined for Other Countries (2014) SOURCE: United States Customs and Border Protection
CO Marijuana Parcels Destined for Outside the Continental U.S. Average Number of Seizures 250 200 150 100 50 0 8 2006-2008 Pre-Commercialization 800% Increase 72 2009-2012 Post-Commercialization 192% Increase 210 2013-2014 Legalization SOURCE: United States Customs and Border Protection
SOURCE: Mindful Live Resin Wax $60/g
THC Extraction Labs Explosions Injuries Number of Explosions 35 30 25 20 15 10 12 32 Number of Injuries 35 30 25 20 15 10 18 30 5 0 2 0 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: RMHIDTA Investigative Support Center
Collateral Damages Chemicals Electrical/Water Federal lands Money laundering Prostitution Transients Home grows SOURCE: RMHIDTA
SOURCE: DEA Home Grows
Scenario 1 As of January 2016: 107,798 medical marijuana patients 8,210 patients with recommendations for 50-99 plants (8% of all patients) If 8,200 patients each grow 50 plants = 410,000 marijuana plants *The state-licensed medical/recreational industry currently has 758,000 plants in its inventory tracking system If 8,200 patients harvest one pound per plant every 90 days = 1,640,000 pounds of marijuana per year SOURCE: DEA
Scenario 2 5 people from FL move to CO and rent 3 houses All 5 individuals obtain a medical recommendation to grow 99 plants Now they can legally grow up to 495 plants SOURCE: DEA At least 1 lb per plant per cycle 495 lbs every 90 days = 1,980 lbs per year CO = $2,000 per lb $3.9 million per year East Coast = $4,000 per lb $7.9 million per year
SOURCE: DEA
All Reported Crimes in Denver 63,816 64,000 62,000 61,276 60,000 58,000 56,000 55,115 54,000 52,000 50,000 11% Increase 4% Increase 2013 2014 2015 Source: National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) definitions in the City and County of Denver, January 9, 2015
CO s Total General Fund Revenue, FY 2015 Marijuana Tax Revenue= 0.7% (Medical and Recreational) SOURCE: Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting, June 2015 Forecast (eleven months of data)
SOURCE: Open Source
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Remember SOURCE: Open Source
SOURCE: RMHIDTA Public Safety Topic Fatal Accidents Status Impaired Driving Incidents Youth (12 17 yrs) Past Month Use Suspension/Expulsion
SOURCE: RMHIDTA Topic College Age (18-25 yrs) Status Past Month Use Adults (26+ yrs) Past Month Use
SOURCE: RMHIDTA Topic Public Health Impact Emergency Room Admissions Status Exposures Exposures 0-5 yr olds Court Appointed Treatment Admissions
SOURCE: RMHIDTA Topic THC Extraction Labs Explosions Injuries Status Criminal Activity Diversion by Motor Vehicle Diversion by Parcel
To get a copy of the entire report: www.rmhidta.org Reports Tab Kevin Wong kwong@rmhidta.org 303-671-2180