Is the Canadian economy transitioning from raw materials to high-tech? Part 1 Alex Carrick, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect
Computer Systems Design and Related Services - une, 2017 OBS - CANADA COMPUTER SYSTEMS DESIGN SERVICES 220 205 190 175 160 145 130 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- OBS U.S. COMPUTER SYSTEMS DESIGN SERVICES 900 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-12- 11-13- 12-14- 13-15- 14-15- 16-16- 17-17- Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nfld/Lab 994 0.4% 243 32.4% P.E.I. 566 0.2% 72 14.6% Nova Scotia 4,035 1.8% 705 21.2% New Brunswick 2,209 1.0% 27 1.2% Quebec 63,019 27.8% 5,502 9.6% Ontario 104,695 46.1% 11,095 11.9% Manitoba 2,753 1.2% 416 17.8% Saskatchewan 1,986 0.9% 112 6.0% Alberta 18,380 8.1% 137 0.8% B.C. 27,819 12.3% 2,169 8.5% Rest of Canada 44 0.1% (13) n/a Canada 226,500 100.0% 20,465 9.9% Industry code 5415 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 2
Software Publishers - une, 2017 45 OBS - CANADA SOFTWARE PUBLISHERS 40 35 30 25 20 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Quebec 9,443 22.3% (677) -6.7% Ontario 20,612 48.7% 2,458 13.5% Manitoba 393 0.9% 3 0.8% 400 OBS U.S. SOFTWARE PUBLISHING Alberta 2,080 4.9% (115) -5.2% B.C. 8,847 20.9% 772 9.6% 360 320 280 240 200 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Rest of Canada 932 2.2% 56 n/a Canada 42,307 100.0% 2,497 6.3% Industry code 5112 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 3
Telecommunications - une, 2017 135 OBS - CANADA TELECOMMUNICATIONS 130 125 120 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Quebec 28,596 22.6% 1 0.0% Ontario 48,559 38.4% (2,086) -4.1% Alberta 11,529 9.1% 44 0.4% 1,600 OBS U.S. TELECOMMUNICATIONS B.C. 14,906 11.8% 1,601 12.0% Rest of Canada 22,800 18.0% 240 n/a 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Canada 126,390 100.0% (200) -0.2% Industry code 517 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Saskatchewan's numbers, especially, are subject to confidentiality in the source data. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 4
Motion Picture & Sound Recording Industries - une, 2017 45 OBS - CANADA MOVIES, VIDEOS & MUSIC 42 39 36 33 Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y 30 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Quebec 11,751 26.0% 175 1.5% Ontario 21,573 47.8% 1,338 6.6% 440 OBS U.S. MOVIES, VIDEOS & MUSIC B.C. 8,088 17.9% 1,043 14.8% Rest of Canada 3,734 8.3% 307 n/a 420 400 380 360 340 Canada 45,146 100.0% 2,863 6.8% Industry code 512 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 320 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 5
Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing - une, 2017 OBS - CANADA AEROSPACE PRODUCT MANUFACTURING 52.0 48.5 45.0 41.5 38.0 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- OBS U.S. AEROSPACE PRODUCT MANUFACTURING 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nova Scotia 1,579 3.6% (214) -11.9% Quebec 24,055 54.8% (1,320) -5.2% Ontario 11,794 26.9% (556) -4.5% Manitoba 3,899 8.9% (226) -5.5% B.C. 1,624 3.7% (95) -5.5% Rest of Canada 961 2.2% 5 n/a Canada 43,912 100.0% (2,406) -5.2% Industry code 3364 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 6
Is the Canadian economy transitioning from raw materials to high-tech? Part 2 Alex Carrick, Chief Economist, ConstructConnect
Stock Markets S & P/TSX COMPOSITE - TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE STANDARD AND POOR S (500) Index (1975=1000) 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 11,247 Aug 2000 14,715 May 2008 15,212 Aug 31 2017 Index 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 1,517 Aug 2000 1,549 Oct 2007 2,472 Aug 31 2017 3,000 400 0 91-an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month 0 91-an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE DOW-ONES INDUSTRIALS (30) NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX Index 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 11,497 Dec 1999 13,930 Oct 2007 21,948 Aug 31 2017 Index 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 4,696 Feb 2000 2,859 Oct 2007 6,429 Aug 31 2017 3,000 1,000 0 91-an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month 0 91-an 92-an 93-an 94-an 95-an 96-an 97-an 98-an 99-an 00-an 01-an 02-an 03-an 04-an 05-an 06-an 07-an 08-an 09-an 10-an 11-an 12-an 13-an 14-an 15-an 16-an 17-an Year and month The charts show month-end closing figures. The latest data point is for August 31, 2017. Data Sources: Standard & Poor's, TSE, NYSE, NASDAQ and Reuters / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 8
Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts ($ Billions CAD) Actuals Forecasts 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Single-family 14.920 16.052 16.698 17.679 18.735 19.809 20.793 Multi-family 13.957 13.114 12.519 13.325 14.120 14.873 15.618 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 28.876 29.166 29.218 31.004 32.854 34.681 36.412 (Yr/yr % change) 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% Hotels/Motels 1.077 0.592 0.508 0.710 0.783 0.732 0.646 Private Offices 2.743 0.657 0.620 0.949 1.188 1.414 1.618 Govenmental Offices 0.834 1.450 1.404 1.440 1.483 1.526 1.557 Shopping/Retail 1.246 1.073 0.701 0.725 0.724 0.725 0.740 Retail Miscellaneous 0.722 0.450 0.387 0.379 0.381 0.395 0.405 Parking Garages 0.166 0.108 0.153 0.154 0.164 0.171 0.175 Amusement 2.383 1.819 1.650 1.874 1.985 2.079 2.149 Warehouses 0.977 0.868 0.780 0.847 0.902 0.954 0.998 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 10.149 7.018 6.205 7.079 7.611 7.996 8.289 (Yr/yr % change) 11.6% -30.8% -11.6% 14.1% 7.5% 5.1% 3.7% TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 1.014 0.667 1.097 1.338 1.638 1.882 2.055 (Yr/yr % change) -34.4% -34.3% 64.5% 22.0% 22.4% 14.9% 9.2% Religious 0.169 0.131 0.114 0.128 0.132 0.136 0.139 Hospitals/Clinics 2.335 1.058 1.657 2.093 2.523 2.936 3.402 MED misc 0.893 0.533 0.542 0.577 0.602 0.624 0.644 Transportation Terminals 0.807 0.190 0.081 0.164 0.222 0.267 0.318 Police,Fire 0.613 0.366 0.431 0.467 0.488 0.505 0.518 Educational Facilities 5.169 3.515 3.734 3.965 4.191 4.384 4.564 TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 9.986 5.794 6.558 7.394 8.157 8.851 9.586 (Yr/yr % change) 54.6% -42.0% 13.2% 12.8% 10.3% 8.5% 8.3% TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING 21.149 13.479 13.860 15.812 17.406 18.729 19.930 (Yr/yr % change) 23.7% -36.3% 2.8% 14.1% 10.1% 7.6% 6.4% Bridges 6.413 1.869 1.445 1.860 2.070 2.236 2.403 Dams/Canal/Marine 0.686 0.620 0.398 0.473 0.507 0.529 0.541 Water & Sewage Treatment 3.866 2.651 5.626 4.288 4.612 4.802 4.986 Roads 7.860 5.823 5.702 6.376 6.978 7.335 7.601 Power Infrastructure 13.294 9.641 3.815 5.007 6.204 7.079 7.800 All Other Civil (Oil & Gas etc.) 10.106 7.102 2.823 5.439 7.674 10.292 13.188 TOTAL ENGINEERING 42.226 27.705 19.809 23.443 28.046 32.273 36.520 (Yr/yr % change) -25.5% -34.4% -28.5% 18.3% 19.6% 15.1% 13.2% TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 63.375 41.184 33.669 39.254 45.452 51.003 56.450 (Yr/yr % change) -14.1% -35.0% -18.2% 16.6% 15.8% 12.2% 10.7% GRAND TOTAL 92.252 70.350 62.886 70.258 78.307 85.684 92.861 (Yr/yr % change) -10.1% -23.7% -10.6% 11.7% 11.5% 9.4% 8.4% Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 9
Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts Actuals Forecasts 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ($ Billions CAD) Summary CIVIL 42.226 27.705 19.809 23.443 28.046 32.273 36.520 NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 21.149 13.479 13.860 15.812 17.406 18.729 19.930 RESIDENTIAL 28.876 29.166 29.218 31.004 32.854 34.681 36.412 GRAND TOTAL 92.252 70.350 62.886 70.258 78.307 85.684 92.861 Verticals All Other Civil 10.106 7.102 2.823 5.439 7.674 10.292 13.188 Bridges 6.413 1.869 1.445 1.860 2.070 2.236 2.403 Dams / Canals / Marine Work 0.686 0.620 0.398 0.473 0.507 0.529 0.541 Power Infrastructure 13.294 9.641 3.815 5.007 6.204 7.079 7.800 Roads 7.860 5.823 5.702 6.376 6.978 7.335 7.601 Water and Sewage Treatment 3.866 2.651 5.626 4.288 4.612 4.802 4.986 CIVIL 42.226 27.705 19.809 23.443 28.046 32.273 36.520 (Yr/yr % change) -25.5% -34.4% -28.5% 18.3% 19.6% 15.1% 13.2% Offices (private) 2.743 0.657 0.620 0.949 1.188 1.414 1.618 Parking Garages 0.166 0.108 0.153 0.154 0.164 0.171 0.175 Transportation Terminals 0.807 0.190 0.081 0.164 0.222 0.267 0.318 Commercial 3.716 0.955 0.855 1.267 1.575 1.852 2.111 (Yr/yr % change) 31.8% -74.3% -10.5% 48.3% 24.3% 17.6% 14.0% Amusement 2.383 1.819 1.650 1.874 1.985 2.079 2.149 Religious 0.169 0.131 0.114 0.128 0.132 0.136 0.139 Community 2.552 1.950 1.764 2.002 2.117 2.215 2.288 (Yr/yr % change) -9.8% -23.6% -9.6% 13.5% 5.7% 4.6% 3.3% Educational 5.169 3.515 3.734 3.965 4.191 4.384 4.564 (Yr/yr % change) 61.2% -32.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 4.6% 4.1% Fire and Police Stations 0.613 0.366 0.431 0.467 0.488 0.505 0.518 Government Offices 0.834 1.450 1.404 1.440 1.483 1.526 1.557 Government 1.447 1.816 1.835 1.908 1.972 2.031 2.075 (Yr/yr % change) 17.6% 25.5% 1.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.2% Manufacturing 1.014 0.667 1.097 1.338 1.638 1.882 2.055 Warehouses 0.977 0.868 0.780 0.847 0.902 0.954 0.998 Industrial 1.991 1.535 1.877 2.186 2.540 2.836 3.053 (Yr/yr % change) -12.7% -22.9% 22.3% 16.4% 16.2% 11.6% 7.6% Hospitals / Clinics 2.335 1.058 1.657 2.093 2.523 2.936 3.402 Medical Misc. 0.893 0.533 0.542 0.577 0.602 0.624 0.644 Medical 3.229 1.591 2.199 2.670 3.125 3.559 4.047 (Yr/yr % change) 59.5% -50.7% 38.2% 21.4% 17.0% 13.9% 13.7% Hotels 1.077 0.592 0.508 0.710 0.783 0.732 0.646 Retail Misc. 0.722 0.450 0.387 0.379 0.381 0.395 0.405 Shopping 1.246 1.073 0.701 0.725 0.724 0.725 0.740 Retail 3.045 2.116 1.596 1.814 1.887 1.852 1.792 (Yr/yr % change) 12.4% -30.5% -24.5% 13.6% 4.1% -1.9% -3.3% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 21.149 13.479 13.860 15.812 17.406 18.729 19.930 (Yr/yr % change) 23.7% -36.3% 2.8% 14.1% 10.1% 7.6% 6.4% Multi-Family 13.957 13.114 12.519 13.325 14.120 14.873 15.618 Single-Family 14.920 16.052 16.698 17.679 18.735 19.809 20.793 RESIDENTIAL 28.876 29.166 29.218 31.004 32.854 34.681 36.412 (Yr/yr % change) 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% TOTAL NON- RESIDENTIAL 63.375 41.184 33.669 39.254 45.452 51.003 56.450 (Yr/yr % change) -14.1% -35.0% -18.2% 16.6% 15.8% 12.2% 10.7% GRAND TOTAL 92.252 70.350 62.886 70.258 78.307 85.684 92.861 (Yr/yr % change) -10.1% -23.7% -10.6% 11.7% 11.5% 9.4% 8.4% Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT. Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 10
Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts (Square Footage Millions) Actuals Forecasts 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Single-family 128.3 138.1 145.9 153.4 161.5 170.5 178.9 Multi-family 83.9 74.0 67.3 73.2 79.6 84.5 88.8 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 212.1 212.2 213.1 226.6 241.1 254.9 267.7 (Yr/yr % change) -2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% Hotels/Motels 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.6 Private Offices 10.7 3.1 3.1 5.0 6.3 7.3 8.2 Govenmental Offices 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 Shopping/Retail 13.2 10.8 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 Retail Miscellaneous 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Parking Garages 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Amusement 5.9 5.5 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.9 Warehouses 7.2 10.1 7.5 8.2 9.2 9.8 10.3 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 46.0 36.6 29.0 33.8 37.4 39.5 41.1 (Yr/yr % change) 4.7% -20.4% -20.8% 16.5% 10.8% 5.6% 4.2% TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 5.4 2.7 3.8 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 (Yr/yr % change) -2.4% -49.0% 38.1% 20.6% 10.4% 8.1% 6.5% Religious 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Hospitals/Clinics 3.8 2.2 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.8 MED misc 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Transportation Terminals 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 Police,Fire 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Educational Facilities 15.7 10.6 9.7 10.6 11.8 12.5 13.0 TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 24.6 15.6 16.0 17.6 19.7 21.1 22.5 (Yr/yr % change) 36.4% -36.4% 2.1% 10.3% 11.7% 7.3% 6.6% TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING 76.0 55.0 48.7 56.0 62.1 66.0 69.4 (Yr/yr % change) 12.6% -27.6% -11.3% 14.8% 11.0% 6.3% 5.1% GRAND TOTAL 288.1 267.1 261.9 282.5 303.3 321.0 337.2 (Yr/yr % change) 1.0% -7.3% -2.0% 7.9% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 11
Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts Actuals Forecasts 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (Square Footage Millions) Summary NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 76.0 55.0 48.7 56.0 62.1 66.0 69.4 RESIDENTIAL 212.1 212.2 213.1 226.6 241.1 254.9 267.7 GRAND TOTAL 288.1 267.1 261.9 282.5 303.3 321.0 337.2 Verticals Offices (private) 10.7 3.1 3.1 5.0 6.3 7.3 8.2 Parking Garages 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Transportation Terminals 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 Commercial 12.1 3.5 3.8 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.6 (Yr/yr % change) 21.4% -70.7% 7.3% 54.1% 23.6% 16.3% 14.3% Amusement 5.9 5.5 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.6 6.9 Religious 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Community 6.6 5.9 4.9 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.3 (Yr/yr % change) -3.4% -11.6% -17.0% 19.5% 13.7% 6.6% 3.8% Educational 15.7 10.6 9.7 10.6 11.8 12.5 13.0 (Yr/yr % change) 47.6% -32.8% -8.5% 8.9% 11.7% 6.0% 4.4% Fire and Police Stations 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 Government Offices 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 Government 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 (Yr/yr % change) -24.1% 15.3% -0.8% 4.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.1% Manufacturing 5.4 2.7 3.8 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 Warehouses 7.2 10.1 7.5 8.2 9.2 9.8 10.3 Industrial 12.6 12.8 11.3 12.8 14.2 15.3 16.1 (Yr/yr % change) 0.9% 1.6% -12.1% 13.4% 11.1% 7.4% 5.5% Hospitals / Clinics 3.8 2.2 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.8 Medical Misc. 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 Medical 6.5 3.9 5.1 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.6 (Yr/yr % change) 31.8% -41.0% 33.2% 11.9% 12.0% 8.6% 8.3% Hotels 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.6 Retail Misc. 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 Shopping 13.2 10.8 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 Retail 19.2 14.7 10.4 11.5 12.0 11.9 11.8 (Yr/yr % change) 4.5% -23.5% -29.2% 10.2% 4.5% -0.9% -1.2% NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 76.0 55.0 48.7 56.0 62.1 66.0 69.4 (Yr/yr % change) 12.6% -27.6% -11.3% 14.8% 11.0% 6.3% 5.1% Multi-Family 83.9 74.0 67.3 73.2 79.6 84.5 88.8 Single-Family 128.3 138.1 145.9 153.4 161.5 170.5 178.9 RESIDENTIAL 212.1 212.2 213.1 226.6 241.1 254.9 267.7 (Yr/yr % change) -2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 6.3% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% GRAND TOTAL 288.1 267.1 261.9 282.5 303.3 321.0 337.2 (Yr/yr % change) 1.0% -7.3% -2.0% 7.9% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT. Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 12
Architectural, Engineering & Related Services - une, 2017 225 200 175 150 125 100 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 OBS - CANADA ARCHITECTURAL & ENGINEERING 02-00- OBS U.S. ARCHITECTURAL & ENGINEERING 01-03- 02-04- 03-05- 04-06- 05-07- 06-08- 07-09- 08-10- 09-11- 10-12- 11-13- 12-14- 13-14- 15-15- 16-16- 17-17- Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nfld/Lab 2,504 1.3% (147) -5.5% P.E.I. 359 0.2% 57 18.9% Nova Scotia 2,955 1.5% 85 3.0% New Brunswick 2,484 1.3% 130 5.5% Quebec 39,638 20.3% 417 1.1% Ontario 68,300 34.9% 4,786 7.5% Manitoba 3,403 1.7% 21 0.6% Saskatchewan 4,193 2.1% 247 6.3% Alberta 41,493 21.2% (1,947) -4.5% B.C. 29,896 15.3% 1,159 4.0% NWT 286 0.1% 76 36.2% Rest of Canada 208 0.1% 84 n/a Canada 195,719 100.0% 4,892 2.6% Industry code 5413 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 13
Canada Residential Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA FORESTRY & LOGGING 55 90 50 80 45 40 70 35 60 $50 30 50 25 20 40 $40 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 00-01- OBS U.S. FORESTRY & LOGGING 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $ Billions CAD $30 $20 Forecast $10 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 14
Canada Hotel/Motel Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA HOTELS & MOTELS 178 1,600 OBS U.S. HOTELS & MOTELS $1.6 175 172 169 166 163 160 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $1.2 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $ Billions CAD $0.8 $0.4 Forecast $0.0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 15
Canada Private Offices Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA FINANCE & INSURANCE 750 6,400 OBS U.S. FINANCE & INSURANCE $4 700 650 600 550 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $3 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $ Billions CAD $2 Forecast $1 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 16
Canada Shopping/Retail Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA SOLELY INTERNET RETAIL SELLERS OBS U.S. SOLELY INTERNET RETAIL SELLERS 17 270 15 240 210 13 180 11 150 9 120 7 90 60 $2.5 5 30 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $2.0 $ Billions CAD $1.5 $1.0 Forecast $0.5 $0.0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 17
Canada Warehouse Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA WAREHOUSE & STORAGE OBS U.S. WAREHOUSING & STORAGE 50 1,050 45 950 850 40 750 35 650 30 550 $1.5 25 450 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $1.2 $ Billions CAD $0.9 $0.6 Forecast $0.3 $0.0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 18
Canada Manufacturing Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA MANUFACTURING (SA) OBS U.S. MANUFACTURING 2,400 18,000 17,000 2,200 16,000 15,000 2,000 14,000 1,800 13,000 12,000 $5 1,600 11,000 $4 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $ Billions CAD $3 $2 Forecast $1 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 19
Canada Manufacturing obs OBS - CANADA MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLY & PARTS OBS - CANADA SHIP & BOAT BUILDING 160 11 140 120 100 80 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 10 9 8 7 6 5 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- OBS - CANADA COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCT MANUFACTURING 120 OBS - CANADA PHARMACEUTICALS & MEDICINE MANUFACTURING 32 100 80 60 40 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 30 28 26 24 22 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Data source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Statistics Canada (Cansim Table 281-0023) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 20
Canada and U.S. Food Manufacturing obs OBS - CANADA FOOD MANUFACTURING OBS U.S. FOOD MANUFACTURING 240 1,620 230 220 210 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 1,570 1,520 1,470 1,420 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Data source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Statistics Canada (Cansim Table 281-0023) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 21
Cement & Concrete Product Manufacturing - une, 2017 32 OBS - CANADA CEMENT & CONCRETE PRODUCT MANUFACTURING 30 28 26 24 22 275 250 225 200 175 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- OBS U.S. CEMENT & CONCRETE PRODUCTS 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Level % Share of Nominal Change % Change (Number of jobs) Total Canada Y/Y Y/Y Nova Scotia 655 2.1% 231 54.5% Quebec 7,962 25.5% (700) -8.1% Ontario 11,075 35.4% (1,210) -9.8% Manitoba 1,025 3.3% 75 7.9% Saskatchewan 902 2.9% 33 3.8% Alberta 5,312 17.0% 1,438 37.1% B.C. 3,475 11.1% 262 8.2% Rest of Canada 854 2.7% (7) n/a Canada 31,260 100.0% 122 0.4% 150 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Industry code 3273 / 'n/a' means not applicable. Data source: Cansim Table: 281-0023 (SEPH) / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 22
Canadian Industries - Capacity Utilization Rates (85% and above is benchmark for more likely capital spending) Percentile Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Change Total industrial 78.9% 85.0% 6.1 Construction 83.5% 87.7% 4.2 Forestry and logging 88.9% 85.7% -3.2 Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 82.3% 85.2% 2.9 Oil and gas extraction 73.3% 84.0% 10.7 Mining 68.4% 82.8% 14.4 Total Manufacturing 80.6% 84.2% 3.6 Furniture and related product manufacturing 86.3% 92.7% 6.4 Leather and allied product manufacturing 84.8% 92.4% 7.6 Plastic product manufacturing 83.7% 91.5% 7.8 Textile mills 75.1% 91.0% 15.9 Petroleum and coal products manufacturing 81.7% 90.3% 8.6 Wood product manufacturing 88.1% 89.8% 1.7 Paper manufacturing 87.2% 89.3% 2.1 Rubber product manufacturing 85.9% 88.0% 2.1 Transportation equipment manufacturing 88.1% 87.8% -0.3 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 75.6% 86.8% 11.2 Chemical manufacturing 84.0% 86.7% 2.7 Food manufacturing 82.2% 86.6% 4.4 Beverage manufacturing 85.2% 86.4% 1.2 Machinery manufacturing 71.0% 85.3% 14.3 Textile product mills 69.2% 76.9% 7.7 Fabricated metal product manufacturing 72.6% 76.6% 4.0 Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing 72.8% 75.8% 3.0 Primary metal manufacturing 79.5% 75.6% -3.9 Electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing 73.6% 75.1% 1.5 Clothing manufacturing 72.8% 73.5% 0.7 Printing and related support activities 69.3% 71.2% 1.9 Tobacco manufacturing 62.1% 60.3% -1.8 Data source: Statistics Canada Cansim Table 028-0002 / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 23
Canada Institutional obs OBS - CANADA HOSPITALS OBS - CANADA ELEMENTARY & SECONDARY SCHOOLS 660 775 640 620 600 580 560 540 520 500 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 750 725 700 675 650 625 600 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- OBS - CANADA COMMUNITY CARE FACILITIES FOR THE ELDERLY 110 450 OBS - CANADA COLLEGES PLUS UNIVERSITIES 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 425 400 375 350 325 300 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Data source: Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Statistics Canada (Cansim Table 281-0023) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 24
Canada Hospital/Clinic Construction Starts ConstructConnect $7 $6 $5 Forecast $ Billions CAD $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 25
Canada Education Construction Starts ConstructConnect $8 $6 Forecast $ Billions CAD $4 $2 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 26
Canada Roadwork Construction Starts ConstructConnect $12 $9 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 02-03- 04- OBS - CANADA MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING 05-06- 07-08- 09-10- 11-12- 13-14- 15-16- 17-160 140 120 100 80 00-01- 02- OBS U.S. MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT RENTAL & LEASING 03-04- 05-06- 07-08- 09-10- 11-12- 13-14- 15-16- 17- $ Billions CAD $6 $3 Forecast $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 27
Canada All Other Civil Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA OIL & GAS EXTRACTION 70 220 OBS U.S. OIL & GAS EXTRACTION 65 200 60 180 55 160 50 45 140 40 120 $45 35 100 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $36 $ Billions CAD $27 $18 Forecast $9 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 28
Canada Grand Total Construction Starts ConstructConnect OBS - CANADA TOTAL CONSTRUCTION (SA) 1,500 8,000 OBS U.S. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 1,400 7,500 1,300 1,200 7,000 1,100 6,500 1,000 6,000 900 $150 800 5,500 700 5,000 $120 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- Forecast 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- $ Billions CAD $90 $60 $30 $0 Year Source of actuals: ConstructConnect Insight / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: CanaData ConstructConnect. 29
More U.S. obs Info OBS U.S. COAL MINING OBS U.S. INVESTIGATION & SECURITY SERVICES 100 950 90 80 70 60 50 40 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 900 850 800 750 700 650 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- OBS - U.S. INSURANCE CARRIERS OBS - U.S. PET & PET SUPPLIES STORES 2,700 130 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 00-01- 02-03- 04-05- 06-07- 08-09- 10-11- 12-13- 14-15- 16-17- Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor) / Charts: CanaData ConstructConnect. 30
Comparison of Latest Provincial Performances - Summer 2017 - Year-over-year Changes Population Housing Starts obless Rate (level)* Total obs Hourly Earnings Weekly Earnings Retail Sales Export Sales GDP 2016/2015 GDP 2017/2016 GDP 2018/2017 N & L -0.2% -4.0% 15.7% -5.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.0% 40.6% 1.9% -2.3% -0.5% PEI 1.4% 62.0% 10.0% 2.9% -0.7% 0.8% 5.5% 11.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% NS 0.6% 28.0% 7.9% 1.1% 2.2% 2.2% 5.0% 2.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% NB 0.2% 32.0% 6.5% -0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 7.9% 17.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Que 0.8% 16.0% 5.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 4.6% 9.9% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% Ont 1.5% 3.0% 6.1% 2.0% 3.3% 1.6% 8.1% 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% Man 1.6% 61.0% 5.0% 2.1% 3.7% 3.1% 6.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% Sask 1.4% 8.0% 6.6% -0.2% 1.7% 2.0% 4.7% 16.0% -1.0% 2.0% 2.2% Alta 1.4% 28.0% 7.8% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% 9.0% 42.7% -3.8% 2.8% 3.3% BC 1.3% -4.0% 5.3% 3.6% 3.5% 2.5% 9.9% 23.9% 3.7% 3.0% 2.7% Canada 1.2% 9.0% 6.3% 2.1% 3.1% 2.0% 7.3% 12.6% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% Yellow denotes equal to or better than nation-wide performance. Blue denotes worse than nation-wide performance. *(For the jobless rate, it's better to be lower than the national average.) 31