Africa s slow fertility transition John Bongaarts Population Council, New York Süssmilch Lecture Max Planck Institute, Rostock 3 Sep 215
Billions 4 3 Population projections for sub-saharan Africa 215 projection 2 22/4 projection 1 215 population 19 195 2 25 21 215 Source, United Nations
Crude birth and death rates sub-saharan Africa 4 Crude birth rate 3 2 215 22/4 1 Crude death rate 22/4 215 2 22 24 26 Source: United Nations
Births per woman 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 TFR trends in sub-saharan Africa Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo (Brazzaville) Congo Democratic Republic Cote d'ivoire Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo 198 199 2 21 22 Source: DHS Uganda
Determinants of fertility Socioeconomic development Mortality decline Family planning Program Diffusion processes Fertility
Hypotheses 1. Africa s development is slow 2. Africa is exceptional 3. Family planning programs are lacking
Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions
Births per woman 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total fertility rate Africa Other LDCs 196 198 2 22
Development indicators 197-21 - GDP per capita (at PPP) from the PWT - Education, % with primary + (Wittgenstein) - Life expectancy at birth (UN 213) - Percent urban (UN 214).
8 4 GDP per capita(ppp) Other LDCs 1 8 Education Other LDCs $ per capita 2 1 Africa %. with Primary+ 6 4 2 Africa Years 5 196 198 2 22 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 Life expectancy Other LDCs Africa 196 198 2 22 % 196 198 2 22 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Percent urban Other LDCs Africa 196 198 2 22
Average at the time of transition onset Sub-Saharan Other LDCs Africa TFR decline % 1 1 Year of transition onset 1994 1975 GDP/cap(log) 6.9 7.7 Education (% primary+) 29 42 Life expectancy 51 59 Percent urban 29 4
Conclusions 1) African transitions later in time Consistent with conventional theory 2) But early relative to level of development Consistent with diffusion theories
Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions
.15 Total fertility rate, pace Births per woman/year.1 Other LDCs.5 Africa 196 198 2 22 -.5
% year Years GDP per capita Pace 6 5 Other 4 LDCs 3 2 1 Africa -1196 198 2 22-2.8.6.4.2 Life expectancy Pace Africa Other LDCs 196 -.2 198 2 22 %/Year % 2 1 Education pace Africa Other LDCs 196 198 2 22.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 Percent urban Pace Other LDCs Africa 196 198 2 22
Average pace at the time of transition onset Sub-Saharan Other LDCs Africa TFR.9.15 Year 1994 1975 GDP/cap(log).8.34 Education (% primary+) 1.2 2. Life expectancy.12.47 Percent urban.29.57
Conclusions 3) African transitions are slow because the pace of development is slow Consistent with conventional theory
Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions
Births per woman TFR by GDP/capita, 21 8 7 Africa 6 5 4 3 Other LDCs 2 1 1 1 1 1 $ per year
Births per woman 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 TFR by GDP/capita, 21 Africa Other LDCs 1 1 1 1 $ per year Births per woman 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 TFR by education, 21 Africa Other LDCs 5 1 % primary+ Births per woman TFR by life expectancy, 21 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Africa 4 6 8 1 Years Other LDCs Births per woman 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 TFR by percent urban, 21 Africa Other LDCs 5 1 Percent urban
TFR 21 Africa effect 1.18** GDP/cap -.36* Education -.19*** Life expectancy -.2 Percent urban. R 2.84 N 71 Year 21
Socioeconomic dev. Mortality decline Cost and benefits of children Fertility preferences Demand for contraception Use of contraception Fertility
TFR Contraceptive prevalence Desired Family size Africa effect 1.18** -1.9* 1.24* GDP/cap (log) -.36*.83.3 Education -.19***.51*** -2.7*** Life expectancy -.2.65 -.4 Percent urban. -.15.1 R 2.84.86.72 N 71 71 39 Year 21 21 Latest DHS
Conclusions: African fertility is high relative to development Consistent with theories about African exceptionalism (e.g. Caldwell)
Caldwell (1992) : (1) African traditional society stressed the importance of ancestry and descent. younger generations assisted the older generations.. for males at least, high fertility ultimately brought substantial economic returns (2) Polygyny led in West and Middle Africa to separate spousal budgets. The father was spared much of the cost of rearing children. (3) There was strength and safety in numbers. Communal land tenure meant that large families could demand a greater share of the land (4) Family planning programs were nonexistent or weak..regarded as foreign or as incompatible with African culture
Outline 1. Fertility and development trends Levels Pace 2. African exceptionalism 3. Impact of family planning programs 4. Conclusions
Socioeconomic dev. Mortality decline Cost and benefits of children Fertility preferences Demand for contraception Family planning program Contraceptive access /information Cost of contraception Unmet need for contraception Use of contraception Fertility
Met and unmet need for contraception, developing world 8 Percent of couples 6 4 2 Potential demand for contraception Current use Unmet need 196 198 2
7 Planned and unplanned pregnancies Africa 6 Planning status Pregnancy outcome # pregnancies 5 4 3 2 1 Unintended Intended Abortion Unintended birth Intended birth Source: Guttmacher
Successful FP experiment in Matlab, Bangladesh 5 Contraceptive Prevalence (%) 4 Experimental area 3 2 1 Control area 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 Source: Cleland et al. 1994
Fertility impact of weak vs strong FP programs Burundi Rwanda Uganda Kenya Pakistan Bangladesh Jordan Iran Philippines Indonesia Strong 2 4 6 Births per woman Weak
6 Rwanda reproductive trends 7 5 TFR 6 % married women 4 3 2 Contraceptive use 5 4 3 2 Births per woman 1 1 199 1995 2 25 21 215
Conclusion: 1) High unmet need for contraception and large numbers of unplanned pregnancies 2) Family planning programs can reduce fertility by about 1.5 births per woman
Billions 6 5 4 3 2 1 Population projection variants sub-saharan Africa Variant High Medium Low 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 Source: United Nations
Causes of slow fertility decline in Africa 1) Slow pace of development 2) African pro-natalism 3) Weak or non-existent FP programs
Sources Bongaarts John, Africa s unique fertility transition Paper prepared for the US National Academies of Science Workshop on Recent Trends in Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa, June 14-15, 215, Washington DC. J. Bongaarts, J. Cleland, J. Townsend, J. Bertrand, and M. Das Gupta, Family Planning Programs for the 21 st Century: Rationale and Design, New York Population Council (212).
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