14th Biennial Sunflower Conference June 2003 Consumer Trends & Usage of Fats & Oils Charles Aldersey
Contents World Usage of Fats & Oils World Consumption Trends in Fats & oils Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Future Directions - Australia
World Usage Fats & Oils Per Capita Consumption & Population 2002 Indonesia 217 million 15.6 kg India 1 billion 11.9 kg Other 15 kg China 1.27 billion 49.4 kg 51.3 kg Total World Production 6.23 billion World Average 19.35 kg Australia 32 kg USA 288 billion EU-15 377 million
World Usage in Fats & Oils - Projection 150 Actual & Projected Consumption of Oils & Fats over Years 1990-2010 140 138.96 Million Tonnes 130 120 110 120.2 121.2 100 90 80 81.04 92.65 1990 1995 2002 2005 2010 Year 1990 1995 2002 2005 2010 Population 5.300 5.670 6.23 6.280 6.649 (in Billions) Consumption (KG/Caput) 15.29 16.34 19.35 19.95 20.90
World Usage of Fats & Oils - By oil type World Consumption (2002) 7% 7% 24% 5% 6% 3% 2% 3% 5% 20% 7% 11% Soybean Palm Oil Canola Sunflower Peanut Cottonseed Palm Kernel Coconut Butter Lard Tallow Other
World Usage in Fats & Oils - Oil type trends Average annual production of the major commodity oils and fats in the five-year periods 1958-1962 and 1996-2001 1958-1962 1996-2001 Rank Million Rank Million order metric tons order metric tons Total 29.16 103.45 Animal 37% 19% Vegetable 63% 81% Butter 1 4.21 7 5.75 Tallow 2 3.39 5 7.65 Soybean 3 3.20 1 22.84 Lard 4 3.19 6 6.21 Peanut 5 2.65 8 4.62 Cottonseed 6 2.26 9 4.00 Sunflower 7 1.90 4 9.14 Coconut 8 1.85 10 3.10 Olive 9 1.30 11 2.42 Palm 10 1.26 2 17.93 Canola 11 1.13 3 12.56
World Usage in Fats & Oils - Future (Million Tonnes) 60 50 Future Production of Fats & Oils Others 40 30 Soyabean oil 20 Palm oil Rapeseed oil 10 Sunflowerseed oil 0 2000 2010 Source : MPOB Estimate, Oil World
World Consumption Trends in Fats & Oils Developing Countries Per capita consumption is likely to increase most in developing countries (e.g. China & India) Developing countries account for an increasingly large portion of the worlds population Preference for oil type depends largely on price and availability in developing countries Price elasticity of demand is more relevant in developing countries Palm share of consumption in developing nations is expected to grow more rapidly because of availability and price
World Consumption Trends in Fats & Oils Developed Countries Per capita consumption of fats and oils are near saturation point Limited demand growth expected for fats & oils in developed countries Historical swing away from animal fats to vegetable oils
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Market Size 20 19.5 19 18.5 18 17.5 17 16.5 16 15.5 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Population Million
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Market Size 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Per / Cap - KG Per cap Consumption up 2.0% over 10 years or 0.20% p.a. Oil World 32.8 kg per cap GF 26.8 kg per cap
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia 250 Australian Soft Oil Usage 200 150 100 50 0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Canola Sunflower Australian Soft Oil Canola % 14 13 22 30 46 47 49 57
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Palm Oils - Tallow Usage 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1196 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Palm Oils Tallow
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Total Retail Cooking Oils - Volume (Tonnes) 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Cooking Oil Olive Oil 41,444T 42,388T 42,758T 42,644T 43,917T 48,464T 51,858 51,962 Growth : +2.3% + 0.9% -0.3% +3.0% +10.4% +7% +0.2%
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Domestic High Oleic Sunflower Seed Crush High Oleic SFO Usage 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Domestic Seed Requirement PMT
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Market Size Total Australian market increasing by 0.7% pa Total retail yellow spreads 105,000 mt Declining at 3% pa Butter 35,500 mt (34%) - Increasing at 3% pa Margarine 70,000 mt (66%) - Declining at 5% pa Bottled oils 51,000 mt pa Non olive growth -4.5% pa Olive 9% pa (37% market) Food Service / Commercial 375,000 mt pa Growing at 2% pa
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Trends over the past years Low growth - around population increase Decline in retail sector (visible) Increase in food service and commercial sectors (invisible) Increase in canola oil consumption and speciality oils such as peanut and sesame oil Increase in olive oil consumption - extra virgin and extra light driving growth Decline in blended vegetable oil and sunflower oil consumption
Domestic Consumer Trends - Australia Trends over the past years Decline in spreads consumption - same household number Butter increasing - more households, higher consumption Dairy spreads increasing Vegetable oil spreads declining - less consumption Reduced oil content of vegetable oil spreads Spreads offering unique positioning eg cholesterol lowing and olive oil Soyabean oil consumption decline (Trans fatty & GMO issues) Stable tallow consumption (lower per cap) Increase in palm oil consumption (higher per cap) High oleic oils introduced Greater import participation in Food Service sector
Future Directions - Australia Past trends to continue Ageing population = lower food + fat intake Further increase in out of home eating = higher fat intake Shallow frying in home declining Increased emphasis on healthier oil Olive oil growth to continue Increase in generic branded bottled oils
Future Directions - Australia GMO Free and Organic oils Will be increase in intrinsic demand Potential Australian olive oil production 26,000 mt in 2007 Growth in Food Service and Commercial Sector Implications for oil type, palm likely Next Generation frying oils High oleic above 65% + linoleic 20% and linolenic below 3% canola oil Substitute for palm olein Substitute for tallow (BSE, Aesthetic reasons)