Global Smokeless Tobacco Market ----------------------------------------------------- 2015
Executive Summary Smokeless tobacco is tobacco that is not burned. It is also known as chewing tobacco, oral tobacco, spit or spitting tobacco, dip, chew, and snuff. Most people chew or suck (dip) the tobacco in their mouth and spit out the tobacco juices that build up, although spitless smokeless tobacco has also been developed. Nicotine in the tobacco is absorbed through the lining of the mouth. The various forms of smokeless tobacco are: Chewing tobacco, Snuff, Snus and Dissolvable Tobacco. Smokeless tobacco is a small but growing tobacco category compared to cigarettes and is consumed in many parts of the world in different types and formats. The key factors which are anticipated to drive market growth include low consumption of cigarettes, increasing personal income and global population. Some of the noteworthy industry trends include rapid adoption of e-cigarettes, increase usage of tobacco among students and illicit trade of tobacco. However, the industry remains threatened by certain challenges which include regulations and restrictions on tobacco, anti-tobacco legislation and growing health consciousness among people. The report provides a comprehensive study of global smokeless tobacco market and also major regional markets. The competition in the global smokeless tobacco market is intense among large players like Swedish Match, Reynolds s American Inc. and Altria Group, Inc. All these companies have been profiled in the present report highlighting their key financials and business strategies for growth. By combining SPSS Inc. s data integration and analysis capabilities with our relevant findings, we have predicted the future growth of the industry. We employed various significant variables that have an impact on this industry and created regression models with SPSS Base to determine the future direction of the industry. Before deploying the regression model, the relationship between several independent or predictor variables and the dependent variable was analyzed using standard SPSS output, including charts, tables and tests.
Metric Tons Billion Cans The various forms of smokeless tobacco are: Chewing tobacco, Snuff, Snus and Dissolvable Tobacco. Tobacco Sales Share in US by Type (2013) Smokless Cigars E-cigarettes Pipe/Cigarette Tobacoo Papers Others Smokeless products are a high growth niche segment of tobacco products in the US making up alone % of the market share in 2013 immediately followed by cigars which makes up approximately % of the market. Smokeless tobacco is a small but growing tobacco category compared to cigarettes and is consumed in many parts of the world in different types and formats. The global sales volume of smokeless tobacco is estimated to reach. thousand metric tons by 2015 growing at a CAGR of % for the period spanning from 2010 to 2015. Moist snuff is sold throughout the US and volumes are particularly strong in the southern and mid-atlantic states. The moist snuff market is highly competitive, brought on by high levels of price and product competition from the largest competitor brands. In 2014, the US moist snuff market has grown at a CAGR of % for the period spanning from 2009 to 2014. On yearly basis, the market grew by % to billion cans in 2014 from billion cans in 2013. Global Smokeless Tobacco Sales Volume (2000-2015E) The US Moist Snuff Market (2009-2014) 2000 2005 2010 2015E 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million Cans Million Cans In the US, the dominant forms of smokeless tobacco are moist snuff and chewing tobacco. The US Moist Snuff Market Volume by Segment (2009-2014) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 The premium priced segment of the moist snuff market declined by % in 2014 to million cans from million cans in 2013, while the price value segment grew by % to million cans in 2014. From 2009 onwards, the premium priced segment is continuously declining unlike price value segment, growing at a CAGR of % for period spanning 2009 to 2014. In Scandinavia, both the Swedish and Norwegian markets continued to show good volume growth of smokeless tobacco products. The dominant form of smokeless tobacco in this region is snus. The Scandinavian snus market is estimated to have amounted to approximately million cans in 2014, up by approximately % from previous year. Over the past several years, consumption of snus has been moving from traditional loose products to pouch products, which at the end of 2014 accounted for approximately % of volumes in Scandinavia. Snus Consumption in Scandinavia (2009-2014) Snus Consumption by Category (2014) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pouch Loose
Million Cans Million Cans The US chewing tobacco market is in a long term state of decline but grew by 9% in 2014. Swedish Snus Market Volume (2012-2016E) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E The Swedish snus market grew by close to % in volume in 2014 versus prior year, led by continued growth of the value priced segment, reaching million cans from million cans in 2013. The snus market in Sweden is estimated to reach around million cans by 2016 at CAGR of % for the period spanning from 2012 to 2016. In Norway, snus market volume has grown by approximately % reaching million cans in 2014 versus million cans in 2013. The strong market growth has been driven by the pouch segment, while the traditional loose segment continued to decline in volume terms. Swedish Match is the largest player in chewing tobacco category, with the market s number one selling brand, Red Man. Its brands account for % of market share followed by national tobacco with % of market share in 2014. Reynolds American (American Snuff Company) and Swisher account for % and % of chewing tobacco market respectively in 2014. Norwegian Smokeless Tobacco Market Volume (2009-2016E) Chewing Tobacco Market Share in the US (2014) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Swedish Match National Tobacco Reynolds American (American Snuff Company) Swisher Others
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Billion Sticks Billion Cans The growth of smokeless tobacco market is hindered by high excise duties on tobacco, increasing health consciousness and marketing restrictions on tobacco among others. Illicit Tobacco Trade Volume Evolution (2011-2017E) The US Smokeless Tobacco Market Forecast (2013 2018F) A billion stick illicit tobacco trade market in 2012 is estimated to grow by % between 2013 and 2017. World s illicit trade volumes (excluding China) are estimated to show an increasing trend over the period at a % CAGR whereas China s illicit trade volumes are estimated to show a decline at a CAGR of %.The key drivers for this increasing trend are big differential in tobacco product prices between neighboring countries, easy to smuggle the product as it is very light, extremely valuable and easy to transport, act as a major source of income for organized crime, boosted by counterfeiting technology and the internet and the consumer attitude as the seller is seen as benefactor rather than criminal. Tracking and tracing will cut illicit growth only if the technology becomes widespread and is counterfeit-proof. Studies have found that nearly all first use of tobacco takes place before high school graduation. Very few people start smoking after the age of 25 years. The younger a person is when they start using tobacco, the more likely they are to use it as an adult. People who start using tobacco regularly when they are younger are more likely to have trouble quitting than people who start later in life. Snus and dissolvable tobacco are two forms of smokeless tobacco that are now being used by kids and teens. In India, nearly % of high school students reported using some type of tobacco at least once in 30 days. By gender, more than % of high school girls and % of high school boys used tobacco. About % of high school students reported using spit or other smokeless tobacco at least once in the 30 days. About % of the boys and about % of the girls had used smokeless tobacco. Smokeless tobacco products sales have been growing in US with simultaneous declining cigarette volume, increasing population and personal income. The US smokeless tobacco market is forecasted to increase by 8% to reach billion cans in 2015 versus 2014. The same is expected to represent a CAGR of % for the period spanning 2014 to 2018 and is expected to cross the figure of billion cans by 2020. Note: Market attractiveness is inverse of penetration. Low penetration means high attractiveness and vice-versa