Ostomy Drainage Bags Market to 2019 Technical Advances Increase Patient Convenience but Unfavorable Reimbursement Scenarios Limit Growth Potential
GBI Research Report Guidance GBI Research Report Guidance The report begins with executive summary capturing the key points of the ostomy drainage bags market. It also outlines competition in the industry and the key segments and geographical regions for the market. Chapter two provides an introduction to the global ostomy drainage bags market report. Chapter three provides an overview of the bags covered under ostomy drainage bags. Chapter four provides information on market size for the 2005 2012 historic period and the 2012 2019 forecast period, as well as dynamics, drivers and restraints. Chapter five gives information on the market size for the 2005 2012 historic period and the 2012 2019 forecast period for the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, China, India, Australia, and Brazil. A cross-country analysis of these countries is also discussed. Chapter six provides information on healthcare reimbursement system for the US, Canada, Germany, Spain, France, the UK and Italy. Chapter seven discusses the distribution channels adopted by the manufacturers. Chapter eight profiles the leading ostomy drainage bag companies and covers the products they offer. Page 2
Executive Summary The global ostomy drainage bags market is forecast to reach $XX billion by 2019, driven by the increasing patient population Executive Summary Ostomy Drainage Bags Market is Forecast to Reach $XX Billion by 2019 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2012 2019 CAGR: XX% Revenue ($bn) 2012 2019 Source: GBI Research s proprietary database [Accessed on August 2, 2013]; interviews with marketing managers and other industry experts The global market for ostomy drainage bags was valued at $XX billion in 2012 and is forecast to reach $XX billion by 2019 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%. The increasing prevalence of conditions such as colorectal cancer, Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) and prostate cancer that require surgery and the creation of a fecal or urinary stoma is the major driver for the future growth of the global ostomy drainage bags market. In the US, approximately XX million people suffer from IBD (CDC, 2012). Currently, ostomy surgery affects approximately XX people in the European Union, XX% of which are permanent ostomy surgeries (Eucomed, 2012). Technical advances in ostomy bags are another major driver for growth during the forecast period. In addition to progress in urinary and fecal diversions, complications such as morbidity associated with radical pelvic surgery and major surgical procedures have been significantly reduced. Other significant advances include improved ability to identify autonomic nerves, while increased use of laparoscopy reduces risk of post-operative morbidity and recovery time. A growing elderly population leading to an increase in the prevalence of age-related chronic conditions that require surgery will continue to supplement growth during the forecast period. Limited adoption due to unfavorable reimbursement is the biggest restraint for future growth in the global ostomy drainage bags market. Page 3
Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents... 6 1.1 List of Tables... 8 1.2 List of Figures... 9 2 Introduction...10 3 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Device Overview...11 3.1 Colostomy...11 3.2 Ileostomy...11 3.3 Urostomy...11 4 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Market Characterization...12 4.1 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...12 4.2 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...13 4.3 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Key Company Shares (%), 2012...14 4.4 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags: Market Dynamics...15 4.4.1 Market Drivers...16 4.4.2 Market Restraints...18 5 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Country-Wise Revenue (2005 2019)...20 5.1 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Cross-country Analysis...20 5.2 Historic and Forecast Revenue, by Country...22 5.2.1 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, US, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...22 5.2.2 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, US, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...23 5.2.3 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, UK, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...24 5.2.4 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, UK, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...25 5.2.5 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Germany, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...26 5.2.6 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Germany, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...27 5.2.7 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...28 5.2.8 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...29 5.2.9 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, France, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...30 5.2.10 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, France, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...31 5.2.11 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Italy, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...32 5.2.12 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Italy, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...33 5.2.13 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, China, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...34 5.2.14 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, China, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...35 5.2.15 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Spain, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...36 5.2.16 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Spain, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...37 5.2.17 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...38 5.2.18 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...39 5.2.19 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Australia, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...40 5.2.20 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Australia, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...41 5.2.21 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Brazil, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...42 5.2.22 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Brazil, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...43 5.2.23 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, India, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...44 5.2.24 Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, India, Revenue ($m), 2012 2019...45 6 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Reimbursement Trends...46 6.1 US...46 6.2 Canada...46 6.3 Europe...47 6.3.1 Germany...47 6.3.2 Spain...47 6.3.3 France...47 6.3.4 UK...47 Page 6
Table of Contents 6.3.5 Italy...47 7 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Distribution System...48 8 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Company Profiles...49 8.1 Coloplast A/S...49 8.1.1 Business Overview...49 8.1.2 Marketed Products...49 8.2 ConvaTec Inc....50 8.2.1 Business Overview...50 8.2.2 Marketed Products...50 8.3 Hollister Incorporated...51 8.3.1 Business Overview...51 8.3.2 Marketed Products...51 8.4 B. Braun Melsungen AG...52 8.4.1 Business Overview...52 8.4.2 Marketed Products...53 9 Appendix...54 9.1 Definitions...54 9.1.1 Colostomy...54 9.1.2 Ileostomy...54 9.1.3 Urostomy...54 9.2 Abbreviations...54 9.3 Sources...55 9.4 Research Methodology...56 9.4.1 Secondary Research...56 9.4.2 Primary Research...57 9.4.3 Models...57 9.4.4 Forecasts...57 9.4.5 Expert Panels...58 9.5 Contact Us...58 9.6 Disclaimer...58 Page 7
Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...12 Table 2: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...13 Table 3: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Key Company Revenue ($m), 2012...14 Table 4: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Cross-country Analysis, CAGR (%), 2005 2019...20 Table 5: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, US, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...22 Table 6: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, US, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...23 Table 7: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, UK, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...24 Table 8: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, UK, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...25 Table 9: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Germany, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...26 Table 10: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Germany, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...27 Table 11: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...28 Table 12: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Japan, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...29 Table 13: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, France, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...30 Table 14: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, France, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...31 Table 15: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Italy, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...32 Table 16: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Italy, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...33 Table 17: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, China, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...34 Table 18: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, China, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...35 Table 19: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Spain, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...36 Table 20: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Spain, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...37 Table 21: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...38 Table 22: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...39 Table 23: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Australia, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...40 Table 24: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Australia, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...41 Table 25: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Brazil, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...42 Table 26: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Brazil, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...43 Table 27: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, India, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...44 Table 28: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, India, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...45 Table 29: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Reimbursement by Province, 2013...46 Table 30: Coloplast, Key Marketed Products, 2013...49 Table 31: ConvaTec, Key Marketed Products, 2013...50 Table 32: Hollister, Key Marketed Products, 2013...51 Table 33: B. Braun, Key Marketed Products, 2013...53 Page 8
Table of Contents 1.2 List of Figures Figure 1: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Segmentation...11 Figure 2: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...12 Figure 3: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...13 Figure 4: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Key Company Shares (%), 2012...14 Figure 5: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Market Dynamics...15 Figure 6: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Ostomy Cases (%) by Age Group...16 Figure 7: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Cross-country Analysis, CAGR (%), 2005 2019...20 Figure 8: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, US, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...22 Figure 9: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, US, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...23 Figure 10: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, UK, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...24 Figure 11: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, UK, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...25 Figure 12: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Germany, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...26 Figure 13: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Germany, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...27 Figure 14: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Japan, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...28 Figure 15: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Japan, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...29 Figure 16: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, France, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...30 Figure 17: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, France, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...31 Figure 18: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Italy, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...32 Figure 19: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Italy, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...33 Figure 20: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, China, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...34 Figure 21: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, China, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...35 Figure 22: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Spain, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...36 Figure 23: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Spain, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...37 Figure 24: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...38 Figure 25: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Canada, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...39 Figure 26: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Australia, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...40 Figure 27: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Australia, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...41 Figure 28: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Brazil, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...42 Figure 29: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Brazil, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...43 Figure 30: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, India, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012...44 Figure 31: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, India, Revenue Forecast ($m), 2012 2019...45 Page 9
Introduction 2 Introduction Ostomy drainage bags are used after an ostomy procedure to collect waste fluids from the stomach. After an ostomy procedure, stool is no longer eliminated through the anus but is instead removed by creating an opening called a stoma from the bowel to outside the body. The procedure can be temporary or permanent depending on the medical reasons for the surgery. Both ostomy bags and pouches are covered in this report. These are also of two types: one and two-piece bags/pouches. Page 10
Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Market Characterization Colostomy bags accounted for more than XX% of the global ostomy drainage bags market in 2012 4 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Market Characterization 4.1 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012 The figure below shows the revenue for the global ostomy drainage bags market from 2005 to 2012. Figure 2: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012 Revenue ($m) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Colostomy Ileostomy Urostomy Source: GBI Research s proprietary database [Accessed on August 2, 2013]; interviews with marketing managers and other industry experts The table below shows the revenue for the global ostomy drainage bags market from 2005 to 2012. Table 1: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2005 2012 Colostomy Ileostomy Urostomy Total 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR (%) Source: GBI Research s proprietary database [Accessed on August 2, 2013]; interviews with marketing managers and other industry experts The global ostomy drainage bags market was valued at $XX billion in 2005 and grew at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX% to $XX billion in 2012. XX major growth factors were the large patient pool due to aging populations, combined with a high incidence of colorectal cancers in key markets. The lack of strong reimbursement in many countries was largely responsible for the slow growth of the market, despite favorable market potential. Page 12
Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market: Market Characterization 4.3 Global Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Key Company Shares (%), 2012 The figure below shows the company shares for the global ostomy drainage bags market in 2012. Figure 4: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Key Company Shares (%), 2012 Others Coloplast B. Braun Melsungen Hollister Incorporated ConvaTec Source: GBI Research s proprietary database [Accessed on August 2, 2013]; interviews with marketing managers and other industry experts The table below shows the key company shares for the global ostomy drainage bags market in 2012. Table 3: Ostomy Drainage Bags Market, Global, Key Company Revenue ($m), 2012 Company name Coloplast ConvaTec Hollister Incorporated B. Braun Melsungen Others Revenue Source: GBI Research s proprietary database [Accessed on August 2, 2013]; interviews with marketing managers and other industry experts Coloplast held the largest market share in 2012 with XX% of the global ostomy drainage bags market, followed by ConvaTec (XX%), Hollister Incorporated (XX%) and B. Braun (XX%). Page 14
Appendix 9 Appendix 9.1 Definitions 9.1.1 Colostomy After a colostomy procedure, part of the colon is attached to the anterior abdominal wall, leaving a stoma in its place, and a colostomy bag/pouch is attached to the stoma to rid the body of fecal matter. There are various types of pouches: open-ended, close-ended or one-piece (in which the skin adhesive is attached with it and the pouch with the skin adhesive is considered as a unit). One unit refers to a pack of 10. 9.1.2 Ileostomy Ileostomy bags are used for the disposal of body matter from a stoma in the abdomen. These bags are usually located above the groin on the right hand side of the midsection. This can be either temporary or permanent. This includes Ileostomy bags/pouches. One unit refers to a pack of 10. 9.1.3 Urostomy Urostomy bags are used to collect urine after a urostomy procedure. Most urostomy bags/pouches are made with an anti-reflux valve to stop back-flow into the system. This can be either temporary or permanent. One unit refers to a pack of 10. 9.2 Abbreviations CAGR: DRG: GPO: IBD: NHS: SAS: TIES: Compound Annual Growth Rate Diagnosis-Related Group Group Purchasing Organization Inflammatory Bowel Disease National Health Service Stoma Appliance Scheme Transcutaneous Implant Evacuation System Page 54
Appendix 9.3 Sources Alcare (2013). Stoma Care Solutions. Alcare. Available from: http://www.alcare.co.jp/e/medical/product/pdf/stoma%20care%20solution_en.pdf. B. Braun (2013). Stoma Care. B. Braun. Available from: http://www.bbraun.com/cps/rde/xchg/bbrauncom/hs.xsl/products.html?id=00020742770000000331. [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. Cancer Research UK (2013) Bowel cancer incidence statistics. Cancer Research UK. Available from: http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/cancerstats/types/bowel/incidence/. [Accessed on October 16, 2013]. CDC (2012). Epidemiology of the IBD. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/ibd/ [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. Coloplast (2013). Ostomy Care. Coloplast. Available from: http://www.us.coloplast.com/products/ostomy/ostomycare. [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. Coloplast (2013). Access to Healthcare projects in the world. Available from: http://www.coloplast.com/about-coloplast/access-to-healthcare1/our-projects-around-theworld/?section=brazil-_1477#section=brazil-_1477. [Accessed on October 12, 2013] Colostomy Association (2013). Colostomy Association. Available from: http://www.colostomyassociation.org.uk/ [Accessed on October 12, 2013]. ConvaTec (2013). Ostomy. ConvaTec. Available from: http://www.convatec.com/products/ostomy/product-names/pl-bbd3fa27-0001-4f93-8772- b6f03bea55fb/. [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. ConvaTec (2011) ConvaTec Annual Report. Available from: http://www.convatec.com/media/4234325/2011-annual-report.pdf Dansac (2013). Dansac Nova Closed Pouches. Dansac. Available from: http://www.dansac.com/default.asp?action=details&item=142. [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. Department of Health (2012) Australian Government. The Department of Health. Stoma Appliance Scheme. Available from: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/stoma+appliance+scheme-1. [Accessed on October 20, 2013]. Eucomed (2012). Time for a grown-up conversation about ostomy care. Eucomed. Available from: http://www.eucomed.org/blog/131/72/blog/2012/10/05/time-for-a-grown-up-conversation-aboutostomy-care [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. Eucomed (2012) Access to Ostomy Supplies and Innovation: Guiding Principles for European Payers. Available from: http://www.ostomyeurope.org/presmessage/eucomed/ostomy%20background%20paper%20final.pdf EOA (2013) The Netherlands. Country Report 2010. European Ostomy Association. Available from: http://www.ostomyeurope.org/. [Accessed on October 14, 2013]. Haggar FA, et al. (2009). Colorectal Cancer Epidemiology: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Risk Factors. Clinics in Colon and Rectal Surgery; 22(4): 191 197 Hollister (2013). Ostomy Care. Hollister. Available from: http://www.hollister.com/us/products/product_family.asp?id=1&family=7. [Accessed on August 12, 2013]. Hollister (2013). Ostomy Care. Reimbursement. Available from: http://www.hollister.com/canada/ostomy/products/reimbursement.html. [Accessed on October 15, 2013]. Liu L, et al. (2010). Early and Late Complications Among Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Survivors with Ostomy or Anastomosis. Diseases of the Colon & Rectum; 53(2): 200 212. Page 55
Appendix March A (2008) Ostomates Moving to France. Stomadata.com. http://www.stomadata.com/ostomatesmovingtofrance.pdf McAfee, et al. (2008) Population screening for colorectal cancer: the implications of an ageing population. British Journal of Cancer; 99(12): 1991 2000 NCI (2013) Colorectal Cancer Screening. National Cancer Institute. Available from: http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/pdq/screening/colorectal/healthprofessional/page2. [Accessed on October 10, 2013]. NICE Clinical Guideline (2011). Colorectal cancer: The diagnosis and management of colorectal cancer. http://guidance.nice.org.uk/cg131. [Accessed on October 10, 2013]. NHS (2012) New arrangements under Part IX of the Drug Tariff for the provision of stoma and urology appliances. National Health Service. Available from: http://www.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/2818.aspx. [Accessed on October 21, 2013]. Nybaek H and Jemec GB (2010). Skin problems in stoma patients. Journal of European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology; 24 (3): 249 257 Strigard K, et al. (2011) Transcutaneous implant evacuation system: a new approach to continent stoma construction. Colorectal Disease; 13(11): 379 382. United Ostomy Association of America (2011). Spouse And Family Support For Ostomates. United Ostomy Association of America. Available from: http://www.ostomy.org/ostomy_info/pubs/uoa_brochure_spouse.pdf. Williams et al (2010) Evaluating skin care problems in people with stomas. British Journal of Nursing; 19 (17): 6 15. 9.4 Research Methodology GBI Research s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals in marketing and market research with consulting backgrounds in the medical devices industry and advanced statistical expertise. GBI Research adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society (www.mrs.org.uk) and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (www.scip.org). All GBI Research databases are continuously updated and revised. The following research methodology is followed for all databases and reports. 9.4.1 Secondary Research The research process begins with exhaustive secondary research on internal and external sources being carried out to source qualitative and quantitative information relating to each market. The secondary research sources that are typically referred to include, but are not limited to: Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports, investor presentations and US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) filings Industry trade journals, scientific journals and other technical literature Internal and external proprietary databases Relevant patent and regulatory databases National government documents, statistical databases and market reports Procedure registries News articles, press releases and web-casts specific to the companies operating in the market Page 56
Appendix 9.4.2 Primary Research GBI Research conducts hundreds of primary interviews a year with industry participants and commentators in order to validate its data and analysis. A typical research interview fulfills the following functions: It provides first-hand information on the market size, market trends, growth trends, competitive landscape and future outlook. It helps in validating and strengthening the secondary research findings. It further develops the analysis team s expertise and market understanding. Primary research involves email correspondence, telephone interviews and face-to-face interviews for each market, category, segment and sub-segment across geographies. The participants who typically take part in such a process include, but are not limited to: Industry participants: CEOs, VPs, marketing/product managers, market intelligence managers and national sales managers Hospital stores, laboratories, pharmacies, distributors and paramedics Outside experts: investment bankers, valuation experts, research analysts specializing in specific medical equipment markets Key opinion leaders: physicians and surgeons specializing in different therapeutic areas corresponding to different kinds of medical equipment 9.4.3 Models Where no hard data is available GBI Research uses modeling and estimates in order to produce comprehensive data sets. The following rigorous methodology is adopted: Available hard data is cross referenced with the following data types to produce estimates: Demographic data: population, split by segment Macro-economic indicators: Gross Domestic Product, inflation rate Healthcare indicators: health expenditure, physician s base, healthcare infrastructure and facilities Selected epidemiological and procedure statistics Data is then cross-checked by the expert panel. All data and assumptions relating to modeling are stored and are available to clients on request. 9.4.4 Forecasts GBI Research uses proprietary forecast models. The following four factors are utilized in the forecast models: Historic growth rates Macro indicators such as population trends and healthcare spending Forecast epidemiological data Qualitative trend information and assumptions Data is then cross-checked by the expert panel. Page 57
Appendix 9.4.5 Expert Panels GBI Research uses a panel of experts to cross verify its databases and forecasts. GBI Research s expert panel comprises marketing managers, product specialists, international sales managers from medical device companies; academics from research universities, KOLs from hospitals, consultants from venture capital funds and distributors/suppliers of medical equipment and supplies. Historic data and forecasts are relayed to GBI Research s expert panel for feedback and adjusted in accordance with this feedback. 9.6 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GBI Research. Page 58