T21 Benchmark Polling Three key marginal seats January 22, 2018
Methodology The sample comprised n=1,051 voters from 3 marginal State seats in South Australia: Hartley (n=351) Hurtle Vale (n=350) Mawson (n=350) The survey was conducted using Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). All interviewing was conducted between 11-14 January 2018. To ensure the final sample is representative of the population across the three marginal seats, quotas were set for age, gender and location and the final data was post-weighted by seat using the latest ABS population estimates. 2
T21 enjoys strong support in South Australia The polling found strong support for raising the minimum age for buying cigarettes to 21 years in pivotal marginal seats in South Australia. There was majority support for change in all seats and across the demographics. Support was higher among those aged 30-39 years (82%) and those 70+ years (85%). While support for raising the smoking age is higher among non-smokers (79%), crucially, a majority of smokers do support it (58%) while just a third (32%) of smokers oppose it. Politically, Liberal supporters were the most supportive (81%) followed closely by SA Best (77%) and Labor supporters (74%). About a fifth of soft voters say that they would be much more likely to vote for a party that introduced T21. 3
4 Key Metrics
Support for T21 in SA marginal seats Three quarters (76%) of voters in the marginal SA seats polled support raising the minimum age for buying cigarettes in South Australia to 21 years Total Support 76% 56% Total Oppose 18% 20% 9% 9% 6% Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly support Don't know 5 Base: Total; n=1,051 B2. The current legal age for buying cigarettes in South Australia is 18 years old. There is a proposal to raise the minimum age for buying cigarettes to 21 years old. Would you support or oppose this change?
Support for raising the minimum age for buying cigarettes in South Australia to 21 years by demographic Demographic Support Oppose Men 74 19 Women 77 18 18-29 70 22 30-39 82 16 40-49 74 18 50-59 72 21 60-69 71 22 70+ years 85 10 Demographic Support Oppose Hartley 71 19 Hurtle Vale 76 20 Mawson 80 15 Smokers 58 32 Non-smokers 79 15 Demographic Support Oppose Labor 74 23 Liberal 81 14 SA Best 77 18 The Greens 71 27 Other 74 17 6 Base: Total; n=1,051 B2. The current legal age for buying cigarettes in South Australia is 18 years old. There is a proposal to raise the minimum age for buying cigarettes to 21 years old. Would you support or oppose this change?
7 Message Testing
Perceptions of strength of messages in support of T21 The strongest messages in support of T21 are Every year smoking kills 15,000 Australians and 95% of adult smokers start smoking under the age of 21 years TOTAL Strong (%) Every year smoking kills 15,000 Australians 63 20 7 5 4 84 95% of adult smokers start smoking under the age of 21 57 26 8 4 5 84 If you can stop someone from smoking before 21, then research suggests they are unlikely ever to start 48 26 14 7 5 74 Smoking costs taxpayers $31 billion per year and the Government only gets back $10 billion in taxes from tobacco companies 35 23 19 14 10 58 Very strong Somewhat strong Somewhat weak Very weak Don't know 8 Base: Total; n=1,051 B3. I m now going to read some arguments in favour of making this change. For each, please tell me whether you think the argument is a strong or weak one?
9 Political Impact
A fifth of soft voters say they would be much more likely to vote for a party that supports T21 Political Impact: Much more likely Somewhat more likely Makes no difference Somewhat less likely Much less likely Don't know Soft voters Labor voters Liberal voters 19 38 36 24 30 34 20 37 36 6 2 3 2 3 3 3 1 3 As a rule of thumb, somewhat more/less likely should be ignored when measuring real world political impact. This means net impact consists of those who say it makes them much more likely to vote for a party minus those who say it makes them much less likely to vote for a party SA Best voters Green voters 14 19 44 40 35 36 2 1 3 5 0 Other voters 22 25 38 3 10 2 B4. Would you be more likely or less likely to support a political party that supported this change? 10
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