Global Immunization Vision and Strategies (GIVS) 2006-2015 Vaccine Tender 2010-2012, Pretender Meeting, Copenhagen 10-11 December 2008 Dr Ahmed Magan & Dr Osman David Mansoor Programme Division UNICEF New York
Global Health Context Political momentum for global health & equity 75+ global health partnerships Fragmented global health architecture Rise of foundations & funds Technological advances New vaccines and technologies Significant new funding / innovative financing Health systems foundation for all service delivery Global financial crisis
Global Immunization Vision and Strategies (GIVS) 2006-2015 Reaching More: Unreached & older Add new vaccines 3. Provide Integrated CS & Other packages Secure Quality & Affordable vaccines + consolidate Partnerships 20-25% Reduction of child mortality (MDG4) GIVS developed by WHO, UNICEF and other partners: 1. Unifying vision of immunization main thrusts 2. Agreement on key strategies
Proven contribution More than half of the gains in reducing child mortality are attributable to immunization Latin America 1990-2005 Andrus JK, Crouch AA, Fitzsimmons J, Vicari A, Tambini G. Immunization and the Millennium Development Goals: progress and challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean. Health Aff (Millwood). 2008 Mar-Apr;27(2):487-93.
25 Trend in Under-Five Deaths, 1960-2015 (Millions deaths per year) 20 4.1 Africa Asia Other 15 10 5 0 13.5 3.6 10.9 2.7 8.3 7 5.1 4.1 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.9 1.8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2015 with achievement of MDGs At current rate of progress MDG4 will be achieved in 2045! 1.4 1.1 0.1 2.2 2 0.8 3 5.1 2015 with current Trend
Fewer than 10 million Children <5 Died in 2006
Global distribution of cause-specific mortality among children under five Undernutrition is implicated in up to 50% of all deaths of children under five Source: World Health Organization and UNICEF
Diseases preventable with current vaccines account for 25% of annual mortality in children under five (data from 2002).
Reaching More
Global Immunization 1980-2007, DPT3 coverage global coverage at 81% in 2007 UCI GAVI support Source: WHO/UNICEF coverage estimates, 1980-2007, as of August 2008 (193 WHO Member States)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % coverage Global coverage estimates, 1980-2006 BCG, DTP1, DTP3, Polio3, Measles HepB3 and Hib 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 UCI GAVI support BCG DTP1 DTP3 Pol3 MCV HepB3 Hib3 Source: WHO/UNICEF coverage estimates 1980-2006, August 2007 Date of slide: 20 August 2007
24.1 million infants not immunized (DPT3), 2007 (birth cohort of 129 surviving infants) Source: WHO/UNICEF coverage estimates, 1980-2007, as of August 2008 (193 WHO Member States)
India and 11 other countries with large unvaccinated children (in millions) (2006) India 6.4 1.82 3.27 Nigeria Rest India 2.4 Bihar Uttar Pradesh Indonesia 1.3 China 1.2 Ethiopia 0.8 Pakistan 0.7 DR Congo Philippines 0.6 0.5 Bangladesh 0.5 Angola 0.4 Niger 0.4 Sudan 0.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Source: WHO-UNICEF Estimates
Measles Mortality Reduction 47 UNICEF / WHO Priority Countries 2007 Nation - wide second opportunity 2007 ( 44 ) Partial implementation of second opportunity 2007 ( 2 ) No second opportunity 2007 ( 1 )
measles deaths Global Measles Mortality All Ages, 2000 2007 * 1,000,000 800,000 74 % reduction 600,000 400,000 200,000-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 * Provisional data. High-low lines indicate uncertainty bounds Source: WHO/IVB measles deaths estimates, September 2008
Introducing new
Number of countries introduced HepB vaccine* and global infant HepB3 coverage, 1989-2007 Source: WHO/UNICEF coverage estimates, 1980-2007, as of August 2008 (193 WHO Member States)
Hib in national immunization system, 1997 & 2008 2008 116 countries introduced* 28 countries to introduce in 2008 *2 countries have introduced part of the country 1997 26 countries introduced The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. WHO 2008. All rights reserved Source: WHO/IVB database, February 2008 193 WHO Member States. Progress toward introduction of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine in low-income countries-- worldwide, 2004-2007. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2008 Feb 15;57(6):148-51. & Wkly Epidemiol Rec. 2008;. 83 (7): 62 6.
Pneumo Vaccine Introduction in routine Infant Immunization Schedule (by Feb. 08) The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement. WHO 2008. All rights reserved In routine immunization schedule in 2007 ( 18 countries 9 %) Applied for GAVI support and not approved (2 countries or 1%) Applied for GAVI support and were approved (3 countries or 2%) Expressed interest for introduction (26 countries or 13%) Source: WHO/ IVB Database as of February 2008 For 2007, the data is provisional Worldwide progress in introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine Worldwide, 2000-2008. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2008 Oct 24;57(42):1148-51 & Wkly Epidemiol Rec 2008;83(43):388-92.
Rotavirus vaccines: Where are we now? WHO/SAGE Recommendation and GAVI support; low mortality No WHO/SAGE Recommendation or GAVI support; high mortality Vaccine prequalification status: - GSK s Rotarix: 2 doses - Merck s RotaTeq: 3 doses N Need trial data on efficacy in Asia and Africa => new SAGE recommendation in 2009
{ {GAVI-supported vaccines} Future EPI schedule BCG, DTPHepBHib(?IPV) as base EPI vaccine (+HepB birth) MR/MMR progressively replacing Measles Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) Estimated ~800,000 deaths in under-five-year-olds 3 doses in infancy > 16% reduction in deaths in Gambia* Herd immunity/ single dose if age > 12 months potential for greater impact in campaigns Rotavirus vaccine (RV) Estimated ~500,000 deaths in under-two-year-olds Data from Africa and Asia on efficacy needed Intussusception and age (>32w) Regional/Special groups MeningA, Japanese Encephalitis, Typhoid, Cholera Older age groups Booster doses of DTP/Td Human Papillomavirus (HPV) *Cutts FT et al. Lancet. 2005;365:1139-46
Linking with others
ITNs delivered per campaign (millions) Cumulative ITNs delivered (millions) Integrated ITN Campaigns, 2002-2007 4 Pre-2006 2006 2007 35 30 3 25 20 2 15 1 0 Ghana Zambia Madagascar Mali Togo Equ Guinea Mozambique Niger Tanzania Angola Cameroon DRC Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Nigeria Rwanda Sierra Leone Indonesia Cameroon Source: Measles Initiative 2008 Congo DRC Gabon Liberia Madagascar Mali Zambia 10 From 2002-2007, 32 million LLINs were delivered during integrated measles campaigns 5 0
Coverage % 120 Linking 4 Interventions During CHDs is Doable & Effective Measles Vit A MBZ ITN 90 100 80 60 40 20 0 Angola Rwanda Liberia S. Leone DRC
Vaccine as part of package Rotavirus vaccines Zinc treatment Challenge: Sanitation/ hygiene Enhanced Diarrheal Disease Control Oral rehydration therapy/ breastfeeding Use new vaccine introduction to enhance other aspects of diarrhoea control http://www.eddcontrol.org/
WHO-UNICEF Global Action Plan on Pneumonia Case-management antibiotics, oxygen, supportive care Improved nutrition breastfeeding, micronutrients, improved feeding Risk factor reduction indoor air pollution, hand washing, HIV prevention Immunizations Hib, Pneumococcal, Measles, Pertussis
Global interdependence
Development Assistance for Health By Source (2000-05) Source: World Bank 2007
Changing Environment for Immunization New planning and budgeting frameworks PRSPs, SWAPS, MTEFs,etx. New financing mechanisms GAVI: $ 2 billion, IFFIm: $ 4 billion, IDA Buy-downs: 175 million, AMC: 1.5 billion Paris declaration on aid effectiveness New funding modalities: less direct project support, more sector and general budget support Constrained fiscal space
Domestic Financing for Immunization National budget has line item for purchasing vaccines 71% (135) in 2000 86% (166) in 2006 Government funding of overall immunization expenditures 56% (107) in 2000 79% (153) in 2006 And 33 countries co-financing GAVI-supported vaccines in 2008
Systems Costs of Scaling Up Coverage Include: Cold Chain Waste Management Vehicles & Transportation Supervision & Training Social Mobilization (Media, IE&C, Advocacy) Monitoring & Surveillance Strategy Development Personnel Outreach
Vaccine Presentation and Packaging Advisory Group To provide a forum for dialogue between the public sector and industry regarding product profile decisions To facilitate improvements in presentation & packaging ( image ) of vaccines for developing country markets Establish optimal vaccine presentation & packaging guidelines in conjunction with different vaccination strategies TORs and outputs to date available at http://sites.google.com/site/vppagp Paper for TPP for Pneumo AMC HPV paper
Gaps in support for Low Middle Income Countries Public Health issue : Combined 30M birth cohort Strong immunization programs: Median DTP3 coverage (2006) = 93%; 97% introduced Hep B and 46% Hib Equity issue with large population in need: More than 252M people living below the poverty line compared to 733M in 72 GAVI-eligible countries Market issue - Financially sustainable: 94% have line item for vaccines; 97% government support for immunization program KEY QUESTION: how can the issue of financing and pricing be most effectively addressed to enable MICs to add new vaccines for MDG4?
Summary and Conclusions Immunization continues to be a success story Further progress depends on reaching most under-served & adding new vaccines =>MDG4 Immunization = essential primary health care Affordable vaccines to address the broad range of diseases of public health importance Innovative integrated approaches yield results Immunization provides infrastructure to target populations Health systems strengthening required Challenges and opportunities immunization financing, especially new vaccines?impact of global financial crisis