Aileen M. CON-08309; No of Pages 8. Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx

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CON-08309; No of Pages 8 1 Original research article 2 Probability of pregnancy after sterilization: a comparison of hysteroscopic 3 versus laparoscopic sterilization, 4Q1 Aileen M. 5 6 7 Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx Gariepy a,, Mitchell D. Creinin b, Kenneth J. Smith c, Xiao Xu a a Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Sciences, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USA b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA 95817, USA c Department of Medicine, Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA 8 Received 9 October 2013; revised 11 March 2014; accepted 16 March 2014 9 Abstract 10 Objective: To compare the expected probability of pregnancy after hysteroscopic versus laparoscopic sterilization based on available data 11 using decision analysis. 12 Study design: We developed an evidence-based Markov model to estimate the probability of pregnancy over 10 years after three different 13 female sterilization procedures: hysteroscopic, laparoscopic silicone rubber band application and laparoscopic bipolar coagulation. Parameter 14 estimates for procedure success, probability of completing follow-up testing and risk of pregnancy after different sterilization procedures 15 were obtained from published sources. 16 Results: In the base case analysis at all points in time after the sterilization procedure, the initial and cumulative risk of pregnancy after 17 sterilization is higher in women opting for hysteroscopic than either laparoscopic band or bipolar sterilization. The expected pregnancy rates 18 per 1000 women at 1 year are 57, 7 and 3 for hysteroscopic sterilization, laparoscopic silicone rubber band application and laparoscopic 19 bipolar coagulation, respectively. At 10 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates per 1000 women are 96, 24 and 30, respectively. Sensitivity 20 analyses suggest that the three procedures would have an equivalent pregnancy risk of approximately 80 per 1000 women at 10 years if the 21 probability of successful laparoscopic (band or bipolar) sterilization drops below 90% and successful coil placement on first hysteroscopic 22 attempt increases to 98% or if the probability of undergoing a hysterosalpingogram increases to 100%. 23 Conclusion: Based on available data, the expected population risk of pregnancy is higher after hysteroscopic than laparoscopic sterilization. 24 Consistent with existing contraceptive classification, future characterization of hysteroscopic sterilization should distinguish perfect and 25 typical use failure rates. 26 Implications: Pregnancy probability at 1 year and over 10 years is expected to be higher in women having hysteroscopic as compared to 27 laparoscopic sterilization. 28 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc. 29 30 Keywords: Female sterilization; Hysteroscopic sterilization; Laparoscopic sterilization; Tubal ligation; Pregnancy after sterilization; Sterilization failure 31 32 1. Introduction 33 Female surgical sterilization is the most popular method 34 of pregnancy prevention worldwide and is the most 35 commonly used method of contraception among women 36 age 35 years and older in the United States (U.S.) [1,2]. Each 37 year, 345,000 U.S. women undergo sterilization procedures Funding: A grant from the Society of Family Planning. Disclosure: The authors report no conflict of interest. Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 203 737 4665; fax: +1 203 737 6195. E-mail address: aileen.gariepy@yale.edu (A.M. Gariepy). 0010-7824/ 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.contraception.2014.03.010 and a total of 10.3 million U.S. women rely on female sterilization for pregnancy prevention [3,4]. Since the introduction of a hysteroscopic approach in 2001, an increasing number of women are undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization instead of laparoscopic sterilization [5 7]. Hysteroscopic sterilization has several advantages over laparoscopic sterilization: it avoids abdominal entry, can be performed as an office procedure and may avoid general anesthesia [5]. More than 650,000 hysteroscopic sterilization procedures have been performed worldwide [5]. One U.S. academic center reported that the proportion of interval sterilization performed laparoscopically from 2002 to 2006 decreased by 50% with a 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

2 A.M. Gariepy et al. / Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx 51 corresponding increase in the proportion of procedures 52 performed by hysteroscopic sterilization by 50% [6]. 53 However, hysteroscopic sterilization has limitations as 54 well. The likelihood of achieving successful bilateral coil 55 placement on first attempt varies from 76% to 96% [8 22].In 56 addition, unlike laparoscopic sterilization, hysteroscopic 57 sterilization is not immediately effective; at least 3 months 58 is required for tubal fibrosis and occlusion to occur for the 59 procedure to be effective. During these 3 months, women 60 need to use alternative contraception until they can undergo a 61 post-procedure hysterosalpingogram (HSG) to confirm bilat- 62 eral tubal blockage [23]. Prior research has shown that some 63 (6 87%) women never return for their HSGs [8,10,12 64 14,16 19,24] and that blockage does not occur in 5 16% of 65 HSG evaluations 3 months post-procedure [8,12 14,16 19]. 66 The multiple steps involved in hysteroscopic sterilization, 67 including the 3-month delay in possibly achieving steriliza- 68 tion, can increase the risk of patient non-compliance with this 69 clinical care protocol and subject women to contraceptive 70 failures (unintended pregnancies) during the process [23]. 71 For any new method of contraception or sterilization, the 72 most important variable to scrutinize is effectiveness. Unfor- 73 tunately, the literature on hysteroscopic sterilization is limited 74 by lack of such data [2,25 27]. Most studies of its efficacy have 75 excluded women who failed initial microinsert placement did 76 not return for HSG or who became pregnant before their HSG 77 [23]. Furthermore, there are no prospective studies comparing 78 the effectiveness of hysteroscopic and laparoscopic steriliza- 79 tions. Most studies that do retrospectively report pregnancies 80 after hysteroscopic sterilization are limited by small study 81 numbers, short follow-up duration, lack of reporting follow-up 82 duration and high loss to follow-up [27,28]. 83 We sought to gain a more objective and comprehensive 84 understanding of hysteroscopic sterilization outcomes, based 85 on the published literature. In the absence of a prospective 86 study directly comparing short- and long-term probability of 87 pregnancy after hysteroscopic and laparoscopic sterilization 88 procedures, the best way to understand the consequences of the 89 two contraceptive approaches is through a decision analytic 90 model. Decision analysis can account for the complexity of the 91 multi-step process for coil placement and follow-up, can 92 incorporate the variability in clinical outcomes reported in the 93 literature and can compare the expected probability of 94 pregnancy after hysteroscopic and laparoscopic sterilization. 95 Also, by mapping out the clinical pathway of these procedures, 96 it provides a unique opportunity to identify knowledge gaps in 97 the current literature and help set priorities for future research. 98 2. Materials and methods 99 2.1. Study design 100 We developed a Markov state-transition model (Fig. 1)to 101 estimate the probability of pregnancy following three 102 sterilization strategies: hysteroscopic, laparoscopic with 103 silicone rubber band application (falope rings) and laparo- scopic with bipolar coagulation. Laparoscopic sterilization was chosen as the comparator for the newer hysteroscopic sterilization procedure, since it is the standard of care for interval (not related to pregnancy) female sterilization [2]. Using yearly cycles, the Markov model mapped health states (major clinical events) and clinical pathways between those states following each strategy. These health states and pathways included successful or failed sterilization attempts, follow-up procedures and their outcomes and progression to alternative procedures if prior procedures were unsuccessful and their outcomes. Fig. 1 depicts this complex model that incorporates the probabilities of the health states and pathways (Table 1) to estimate the risk of pregnancy. We estimated the expected probability of pregnancy in hypothetical cohorts of women based on available data. Sterilization success was defined in accordance with standard clinical practice. A successful hysteroscopic sterilization was defined as having bilateral blockage of fallopian tubes on follow-up HSG. A successful laparoscopic sterilization was defined as physical fallopian tube obstruction at surgery. Procedure characteristics and follow-up testing probabilities were estimated from published sources (Table 1). Resultant sterilizations and pregnancies within each cohort were attributed to the initial procedure. Thus, women undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization who ultimately received laparoscopic sterilization were counted as hysteroscopic successes. Cohorts were followed in the model for 10 years. In the absence of published data, assumptions from a previous and similar model [25], where relevant, were carried over to this analysis. Data not obtainable from published literature were acquired from our practice s active database, initiated in July 2003. Standard decision analysis software (TreeAge Pro Suite 2012) was used. 2.2. Data sources for hysteroscopic sterilization For hysteroscopic sterilization, we used data on Essure hysteroscopic sterilization, as it is the only method available. Base case values and reported ranges of the relevant parameters (Table 1) came from a comprehensive literature search of all pertinent studies in English in PubMed and Ovid last searched September 20, 2013, and by reviewing the bibliographies of identified references. All published studies that reported more than 50 subjects were included. Base case values are weighted by study sample size averages from those studies. Data from studies not using HSG to evaluate hysteroscopic sterilization success as required by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were not included. Scant data are available regarding pregnancy risk after hysteroscopic sterilization [2,25 27]; the most recent available data are from the Essure package insert, updated between April and August 2012. From 2001 to 2010, 748 pregnancies following an Essure procedure were reported to the manufacturer, the FDA, or in published reports; the company also reported sales of 497,306 Essure kits during that time period [30]. To calculate the risk of pregnancy after a confirmatory HSG shows bilateral occlusion, we excluded 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157

A.M. Gariepy et al. / Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx 3 Q2 Fig. 1.

4 A.M. Gariepy et al. / Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx t1:1 Table 1 t1:2 Parameter values for model t1:3 Probability of Baseline value (%) Range (%) Reference or assumption t1:4 Laparoscopic sterilization t1:5 Successful LS 99 99 100 8, 29 t1:6 Choosing HS if LS failed 20 10 50 Author consensus t1:7 Hysteroscopic sterilization t1:8 Successful coil placement on first attempt 92 76 96 8 22 t1:9 Returning for HSG at 3 months 79 13 94 8, 10, 12 14, 16 t1:10 HSG: coils present at 3 months 96 95 99 14, 17 19 t1:11 HSG: blockage at 3 months 95 84 100 8, 12 14, 16 19 t1:12 Returning for HSG at 6 months 79 13 94 Assume same as for 3 months t1:13 HSG: blockage at 6 months 94 93 100 12, 14, 16 18 t1:14 Assumed sterile if do not return for HSG 91 (95% of 96%) 84 100 Assume same as women returning at 3 and 6 months t1:15 Additional sterilization attempts t1:16 Choosing another procedure (HS or LS) after 63 21 100 8 11, 14, 16, 21 one failed HS attempt (unable to place coils) t1:17 Choosing LS after one failed HS attempt 79 33 100 9 11, 14, 16, 21 t1:18 Choosing LS after two failed HS attempts 92 72 100 19, Practice database t1:19 Successful coil placement on second HS attempt 68 67 100 8, 9, 11, 16, 18, 21, 22 t1:20 If HSG at 3 months shows no coils or HSG at 6 months shows non-occlusion t1:21 Choosing another procedure 30 Practice database t1:22 Choosing second HS 50 Practice database t1:23 Occlusion with second HS 48 45 100 19, Practice database t1:24 Pregnancy after hysteroscopic sterilization t1:25 Among women using contraception (after HS and before HSG) t1:26 During 3 months waiting period after HS 4.2 0.05 20 31, 32 t1:27 Incremental pregnancy months 3 6 3.1 t1:28 During 6 months waiting period after HS 7.3 0.05 20 31, 32 t1:29 Incremental pregnancy months 6 9 2.6 t1:30 During 9 months waiting period after HS 9.9 0.05 20 31 t1:31 Incremental pregnancy months 9 12 2.5 t1:32 Annually, years 2 10 12.4 0.05 20 3, 31, 32 t1:33 Among women not using contraception (after HS and before HSG) t1:34 During 3 months of no contraception 21 32 t1:35 Incremental pregnancy months 3 6 no contraception 22 t1:36 During 6 months of no contraception 43 32 t1:37 Incremental pregnancy months 6 9 no contraception 21 t1:38 During 9 months of no contraception 64 32 t1:39 Incremental pregnancy months 9 12 no contraception 21 t1:40 Annually, years 2 10 85 32 t1:41 After HSG t1:42 Annually if bilateral occlusion not confirmed 12.4 0.05 20 3, 31, 32 t1:43 Annually if bilateral occlusion confirmed a 0.004 0 0.5 30 t1:44 Monthly risk after occlusion confirmed 0.0003 Calculation from above t1:45 Pregnancy after laparoscopic sterilization b t1:46 Pregnancy after silicone band application t1:47 Year 1 0.59 0.33 0.85 33 t1:48 Year 2 0.17 0 0.73 33 t1:49 Year 3 0.07 0.03 0.69 33 t1:50 Year 4 0.07 0 0.73 33 t1:51 Year 5 0.10 0 0.78 33 t1:52 Year 6 0.00 0 0.71 33 t1:53 Year 7 0.30 0 1.21 33 t1:54 Year 8 0.31 0 1.55 33 t1:55 Year 9 0.00 0 1.39 33 t1:56 Year 10 0.16 0 1.62 33

A.M. Gariepy et al. / Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx 5 t1:57 Table 1 (continued) t1:58 Probability of Baseline value (%) Range (%) Reference or assumption t1:59 Pregnancy after bipolar coagulation t1:60 Year 1 0.23 0.03 0.42 33 t1:61 Year 2 0.23 0 0.72 33 t1:62 Year 3 0.21 0 0.84 33 t1:63 Year 4 0.64 0 1.50 33 t1:64 Year 5 0.34 0 1.45 33 t1:65 Year 6 0.18 0 1.41 33 t1:66 Year 7 0.24 0 1.77 33 t1:67 Year 8 0.13 0 1.52 33 t1:68 Year 9 0.13 0 1.69 33 t1:69 Year 10 0.15 0 1.81 33 t1:70 Abbreviations: LS, laparoscopic sterilization; HS, hysteroscopic sterilization. a The manufacturer reports 748 pregnancies following an Essure procedure and sales of 497,306 HS kits during the same time period [30].Toestimatetherateof pregnancy after confirmatory HSG, we excluded the following pregnancies: (1) 32 luteal phase pregnancies that should not differ between laparoscopic and hysteroscopic sterilization, (2) 229 pregnancies due to patient non-compliance, (3) 95 pregnancies due to perforation, (4) 45 pregnancies due to unsatisfactory placement and (5) 35 pregnancies due to physician non-compliance. The latter four categories were excluded because they more likely occurred prior to HSG confirmation of tubal blockage. An additional 240 pregnancies were reported as insufficient information. We assumed half of these pregnancies occurred before HSG testing. This resulted in a total of 192 pregnancies (748 total pregnancies minus 556 pregnancies before HSG) occurring after HSG testing among 496,750 sterilizations over 10 years, i.e., 0.4 t1:71 pregnancies per 1000 sterilizations over 10 years [or 0.004% annual pregnancy rate, which was calculated as 1 (1 0.0004) (1/10) ]. b To calculate the annual rate of pregnancy after LS, we used the cumulative pregnancy rate reported in CREST [33] to denote the point estimate of the cumulative pregnancy rate for year t as P(t), upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the cumulative pregnancy rate in year t as P u (t) and the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of the cumulative pregnancy rate in year t as P l (t). For year t after LS, we calculated the annual pregnancy rate as P(t) P(t 1), the upper bound of t1:72 the annual pregnancy rate as P u (t) P l (t 1) and the lower bound of the annual pregnancy rate as P l (t) P u (t 1) (but restricted to 0). 158 32 luteal phase pregnancies, which should not differ between 159 laparoscopic and hysteroscopic sterilization, and 524 160 pregnancies that occurred prior to HSG (e.g., patient non- 161 compliance, perforation, unsatisfactory placement, physician 162 non-compliance). This provided a conservative estimate of 163 pregnancy risk after HSG of 192 per 496,750 over 10 years 164 (0.4 per 1000 sterilizations) and an annual pregnancy rate of 165 0.004% after HSG testing (Table 1). 166 2.3. Data sources for laparoscopic sterilization 167 Data from the U.S. Collaborative Review of Sterilization 168 (CREST), the largest prospective study (n= 12,138) of 169 laparoscopic sterilization, were used for base case values and 170 ranges of pregnancy risk after laparoscopic sterilization [33]. 171 The study, which enrolled women during 1978 1987, included 172 all procedures currently used in practice today except for the 173 Filshie clip. Because of a lack of long-term Filshie clip follow- 174 up data, this method was not included in the current model. We 175 modeled pregnancy risk after laparoscopic sterilization using 176 silicone rubber band application and bipolar coagulation. 177 2.4. Interventions and measures 178 Sterilizations via hysteroscopy, laparoscopy with silicone 179 rubber band application and laparoscopy with bipolar 180 coagulation were tested in identical hypothetical cohorts. 181 The model used estimated probabilities of women undergo- 182 ing a second or third sterilization attempt after one failed 183 attempt from the published literature (Table 1). Pregnancy 184 following hysteroscopic sterilization may occur at four 185 different time points: (1) during the 3- or 6-month waiting 186 period when patients rely on alternative contraception before 187 confirmatory HSG testing, (2) after HSG fails to confirm bilateral occlusion, (3) after HSG confirms bilateral occlusion and (4) after a failed hysteroscopic sterilization attempt when no further sterilization attempts occur. While the probability of hysteroscopic sterilization success was assumed to be identical whether or not women completed follow-up HSG testing, the risk of pregnancy differs. This is because women who did not have a follow-up HSG would not know if they were still at risk for pregnancy and may not be using additional necessary contraception, hence resulting in a higher risk of pregnancy (Table 1). Cohorts were followed for 10 years, consistent with the analysis of pregnancy risk in the CREST study [33]. Finally, to simulate real patient experiences, we also used published data on contraceptive use and pregnancies from Cycle 6 of the U.S. National Survey of Family Growth and calculated weighted average pregnancy risk over time among U.S. women using reversible contraception [31]. These calculations for contraceptive failure were used to determine pregnancy risk for women awaiting a confirmatory HSG and for women who stop pursuing sterilization and rely on routine contraception instead [32] (Table 1). We conducted both one-way and twoway sensitivity analyses to assess the impact on findings when varying the value of a single parameter (one-way sensitivity analysis) and the values of two parameters simultaneously (two-way sensitivity analysis) in the model. The plausible range for each parameter is listed in Table 1. 3. Results In the base case analysis at all points in time after the sterilization procedure (ranging from 1 year to 10 years after procedure initiation), the expected cumulative risk of 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217

6 A.M. Gariepy et al. / Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx 218 pregnancy after sterilization is higher in women opting for 219 hysteroscopic than laparoscopic sterilization using silicone 220 band application or bipolar coagulation. Pregnancy risk after 221 hysteroscopic sterilization is primarily accrued in the first 222 year after initiating the process. The expected pregnancy 223 rates per 1000 women at 1 year are 57, 7 and 3 for 224 hysteroscopic sterilization, laparoscopic silicone rubber band 225 application and laparoscopic bipolar coagulation, respec- 226 tively. At 10 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates per 1000 227 women are 96, 24 and 30, respectively (Fig. 2). 228 One-way sensitivity analyses suggest that pregnancy risk 229 after hysteroscopic or laparoscopic sterilization is most 230 influenced by the probability of the following events: 231 pregnancy during 3 months of routine contraception use 232 after successfully performed hysteroscopic sterilization, 233 choosing a second procedure after one failed hysteroscopic 234 sterilization attempt, returning for mandated HSG, the 235 assumption of sterility among women who do not return 236 for HSG, pregnancy after confirmed bilateral occlusion in 237 hysteroscopic sterilization, probability of successful coil 238 placement on first hysteroscopic sterilization attempt and 239 successful laparoscopic sterilization procedure. 240 Results from our two-way sensitivity analyses also 241 informed us of which variables would need to change and 242 by how much they would need to change to create equal 243 effectiveness between hysteroscopic and laparoscopic ster- 244 ilization. To reach equivalency, the probability of successful 245 band or bipolar laparoscopic sterilization would need to 246 decrease below 90% (base case, 99%) and one of three 247 improvements in hysteroscopic outcomes would need to 248 occur: (1) the probability of successful bilateral coil 249 placement on first hysteroscopic sterilization attempt 250 would need to increase to 98% (base case, 92%), (2) the 251 probability of choosing a second procedure after one failed 252 hysteroscopic sterilization would need to increase to 93% 253 (base case, 63%) or (3) the probability of returning for the 254 mandated HSG would need to increase to 100% (base case, 255 79%). Under these circumstances, the three procedures 256 would have an equivalent pregnancy risk of approximately 257 80 per 1000 women at 10 years. Fig. 2. 4. Discussion Based on best data currently available, our model suggests that hysteroscopic sterilization is not as effective as laparoscopic sterilization in preventing pregnancy when the complete clinical pathways of the procedures are considered. Our analysis improves upon prior studies of hysteroscopic sterilization by taking into account uncertainties in successful placement of coils, return for HSG and successful blockage of tubes. Reflecting these real-life circumstances, our base case estimates showed that a woman undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization is expected to have a pregnancy risk of 96 per 1000 women after 10 years, compared to 24 and 30 per 1000 women for laparoscopic sterilization with silicone rubber band and bipolar cautery, respectively. This analysis expands upon our previous study that compared the likelihood of successful bilateral tubal occlusion after hysteroscopic versus laparoscopic sterilization procedures [25]. By estimating the risk of pregnancy after both sterilization procedures over a 10-year period, our current study provides important new data on expected long-term outcomes. This information is essential for patients and clinicians. Our findings have important implications for future development of hysteroscopic sterilization products. The higher pregnancy rate over 10 years with hysteroscopic compared to laparoscopic sterilization is primarily driven by first-year failures because the subsequent failure per year is similar between hysteroscopic and laparoscopic methods. Future efforts to improve hysteroscopic sterilization need to focus on its higher first-year failure risk, which is primarily influenced by the rate of successful placement of both coils on first attempt, lack of immediate effectiveness and need for follow-up evaluations. Even if certain steps of the hysteroscopic sterilization procedure are optimized (e.g., 98% bilateral coil placement), laparoscopic sterilization remains superior unless the probability of successfully performing a laparoscopic sterilization procedure also drops below 90%, which is not clinically probable. Thus, the expected higher failure rate of hysteroscopic sterilization needs to be considered and communicated to patients, in conjunction with its benefits when counseling patients about female sterilization options. Unintended pregnancy resulting from sterilization failure can have serious consequences for both women s quality of life and maternal and neonatal health outcomes and should be considered a significant adverse event. We recognize that although we have used the best evidence available, our analysis is limited by the quality of the data used in the model. There are no prospective studies on pregnancy risk after hysteroscopic sterilization [2,25 27], let alone studies directly comparing the effectiveness of hysteroscopic and laparoscopic sterilizations [2,25 27]. Of the retrospective studies of pregnancy after hysteroscopic sterilization, most are limited by small study numbers, short follow-up duration, lack of reporting follow-up duration, high loss to follow-up, reliance on X-ray instead of HSG for 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312

A.M. Gariepy et al. / Contraception xx (2014) xxx xxx 7 313 confirmation, passive reporting of pregnancy or estimates of 314 the number of procedures performed [25 27,30,34]. For 315 example, one large retrospective study of 4306 women from 316 Spain reported 7 (0.16%) pregnancies over 7 years, but only 317 20% of the original cohort had follow-up for 7 years, and 318 abdominal X-ray was used primarily instead of HSG [28]. 319 Hence we estimated the pregnancy rate after hysteroscopic 320 sterilization based on passive (not mandatory) pregnancy 321 reporting data to FDA and the manufacturer and the 322 manufacturer s estimates of the number of Essure kits sold 323 (rather than the number of devices actually implanted). The 324 inability to account for unused kits, failed procedures or 325 multiple attempts could have resulted in an underestimated 326 pregnancy rate for hysteroscopic sterilization [30]. 327 Similarly, the CREST data, which provided the pregnancy 328 rates after laparoscopic sterilization for our analysis, have 329 limitations too. The CREST was a longitudinal prospective 330 study of laparoscopic sterilization procedures performed 26 34 331 years ago, early in the learning curve of laparoscopic surgery 332 [2,35]. Consequently, our estimated pregnancy outcome may 333 be biased in favor of hysteroscopic sterilization. 334 Nevertheless, our analysis is a useful first step to understand 335 thefullimpactofhysteroscopic sterilization on pregnancy risk, 336 based on currently available data. The finding that laparoscopic 337 is superior to hysteroscopic sterilization occurred despite a bias 338 in favor of hysteroscopic sterilization in the analysis. That is, the 339 study assessed outcome by initial method of sterilization 340 attempted, including 6% of women starting with hysteroscopic 341 sterilization that are ultimately sterilized laparoscopically [25]. 342 Thus, women undergoing hysteroscopic sterilization who 343 ultimately received laparoscopic sterilization, which had a 344 higher success rate, were counted as hysteroscopic successes. 345 Future research from a prospective cohort of women 346 undergoing hysteroscopic and laparoscopic sterilization proce- 347 dures with high long-term follow-up rates would enhance our 348 understanding of hysteroscopic sterilization effectiveness. 349 Contraceptive methods are ranked by effectiveness and 350 characterized by perfect and typical use failure rates. 351 Methods requiring multiple steps (i.e., frequent compliance) 352 like combined hormonal contraceptive pills have higher 353 typical use failure rates than the corresponding perfect use 354 failure rates and are significantly less effective than one-step 355 methods such as intrauterine devices and contraceptive 356 implants [32,33]. This difference in perfect and typical use 357 failure rates is also important to consider when assessing the 358 effectiveness of multi-step hysteroscopic sterilization. How- 359 ever, most rankings do not differentiate hysteroscopic from 360 laparoscopic sterilization and do not ascribe different failure 361 rates for perfect and typical sterilization use. Our findings 362 suggest that it is time to rethink this characterization. 363 Acknowledgment 364 The authors thank Lisbet Lundsberg, PhD, for her 365 assistance with the literature review. References [1] EngenderHealth. Contraceptive sterilization: global issues and trends. New York, NY: EngenderHealth; 2002, pp. 17 64. [2] Peterson HB. Sterilization. Obstet Gynecol 2008;111:189 203. [3] Jones J, Mosher W, Daniels K. Current contraceptive use in the United States, 2006 2010, and changes in patterns of use since 1995. Natl Health Stat Rep 2012;60:1 5. [4] Mosher WD, Jones J. Use of contraception in the United States: 1982 2008. 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