Second FAO/OIE/WHO joint scientific consultation on Influenza and other emerging infectious diseases at the human-animal interface, 27-29 April 2010, Verona Focus on importance of the interface and practical significance of this consultation s work Jan Slingenbergh (FAO) Excerpt: There is an urgency to address the pressures on the environment that cause new diseases and threaten world health. EID events as indicators of imbalances in the landscape. 1
The effects of humans on the earth terrestrial surface area: - climate change - deforestation - loss of biodiversity - loss of soil fertility - fresh water availability - pests and diseases (plants, animals and humans) 2
the weight of agriculture and land pressures... Encircled are regions where deforestation and irrigation already have modified evatranspiration, and where they coincide with area where soil moisture has been suggested to have a substantial impact on rainfall. ecological dynamics Equilibrium between pathogen invasiveness and the invasibility of the host environment disease pathogen genetic evolution 3
Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture dynamics at the interfaces 4
Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture Changes in host domain size Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture Changes in the landscape as habitat 5
2008 rabies cases in wildlife mapped at NUTS 3 level (source: Rabies Bulletin Europe) Rabies cases in Belarus by animal type, 1990 to 2008 1000 900 800 700 Fox Cases 600 500 400 Fox Dog Cat Raccoon dog Cattle 300 200 100 Dog Cat 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Species with under 50 cases in all years not shown Year Source: Rabies Bulletin Europe 6
Rabies Cases in Russia, 1990-2008 1600 Fox 1400 1200 Cases 1000 800 600 Cattle Dog Fox Dog Cattle Cat Raccoon dog Goat sheep Equine 400 200 Cat 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: Rabies Bulletin Europe Species with under 50 cases in all years not shown Rabies Cases in Lithuania, 1990-2008 1000 900 Raccoon dog 800 700 Cases 600 500 400 Fox Raccoon dog Fox Cattle Dog Cat Other musteides 300 200 Cattle 100 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Species with under 50 cases in all years not shown Year Source: Rabies Bulletin Europe 7
Percent 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 GDP per capita (fixed PPP) Urban agglomeration, Country Projected 2025 population (millions)[1 ] Estimated percent of UFW available to scavengers Predicted 2025 daily UFW available to scavengers (tonnes) Mumbai, India 26.4 46% 3,089 Dhaka, Bangladesh 22.0 54% 3,084 Kinshasa, D. R. of the Congo 16.8 70% 3,012 Delhi, India 22.5 46% 2,688 Kolkata, India 20.6 46% 2,456 Karachi, Pakistan 19.1 46% 2,296 Lagos, Nigeria 15.8 45% 1,845 Shanghai, China 19.4 28% 1,518 Manila, Philippines 14.8 39% 1,524 Cairo, Egypt 15.6 34% 1,410 Lahore, Pakistan 10.5 46% 1,264 Chennai, India 10.1 46% 1,210 São Paulo, Brazil 21.4 17% 1,108 Mexico City, Mexico 21.0 17% 1,100 Jakarta, Indonesia 12.4 35% 1,157 Beijing, China 14.5 28% 1,137 Bangalore, India 9.7 46% 1,161 Hyderabad, India 9.1 46% 1,086 Chittagong, Bangladesh 7.6 54% 1,070 Kabul, Afghanistan 7.2 56% 1,036 Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam 8.1 45% 957 Guangzhou, Guangdong, China 11.8 28% 925 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6.2 59% 944 Ahmadabad, India 7.7 46% 924 Yangon Myanmar 5 9 58% 874 Human N living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture C N C N Changes in host community composition and numbers 8
Poultry, Human and Livestock Mammal Populations Source: FAOSTAT and UN Population Division 25 20 Population in billions 15 10 Poultry Human Livestock mammals 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Poultry in the World slide 5 9
feed surplus/deficit soymeal animal agriculture has become globalised; feed, live animals and products Human living environment Fauna in (protected) ecosystems Food and agriculture Ad hoc host incursions across host domains; -Humans in forest: Lyme, Hanta or TBE; -Red foxes coming to town: rabies -Fruit bats to mango trees: Nipah 10
ecological dynamics Equilibrium between pathogen invasiveness and the invasibility of the host environment disease pathogen genetic evolution What does pathogen evolution entail? Pathogens -display natural plasticity (Ro adjustment, no new pathogen) 3 new patterns may evolve: - new host = species jump (host range) - new infection process = virulence jump (host body) - new transmission pattern (host population / landscape) 11
Emerging new pathogen - typologies A B C -species jump - virulence jump - new transmission pattern - change in contact / - aggressive spread - new host landscape / exposure host species sustainable new subpopulations - (long) incubation - shorter incubation - more instant (lengthening of chain) - unchecked - SLIR modulated - gradual but progressive 3 distinct ecological invasions species jump; HIV 1 host range adjustment 1 + 2 + 3 almost evolving in sync 2 new course of infection 3 adjustment transmission mode / pattern 1 SARS 2 3 X, aborted 1 ph1n1 (2009) 3 2 12
virulence jump H5N1 panzootic 2 new host type 1 new course of infection 3 new transmission i features Gumboro hypervirulent see above NDV velogenic see above BTV8 2 3 new transmission features 1 RVFV see above ASFV see above 13
A - species jump B - virulence jump C - transmission triggers quest for food: mass rearing: new landscape: -bushmeat (HIV) - poultry - land use - wet market (SARS) - shrimps - climate change - recycling ruminant - sterile insects - trade + traffic cadavers (BSE) rare events - scaling up - invasion becoming common clones new ecology pathogen type / transmission modes: - unknown pathogens - common bugs - existing bugs respiratory agents fecal-oral arbo-viruses body fluids water, food encephalopathy skin Number of infected hosts time 14
EID events SLIR demographics and invasion ecology Number of infe ected hosts rabies viruses African sw wine Fever virus Chiku ungunya virus Bluetongue virus PPRV WNV ph1n1 HIV/aids PRRSV dengue v H5N1 RVFV Gumboro v NDV SARS BSE = genetic diversity build up / consolidation as new pathogen A B MRSA C HIV SARS ph1n1 X H5N1 HPAI E.Coli Salm. Gumboro PRRS NDV TBE CCHF Hanta WNV rabies v BTV ASF RVF PPR BSE X new host species / type new, more severe infection process new transmission features Pathogens in the new niche 15
FAO in One Health/ Emerging Pandemic Threats: - One Flu type concept (including wild birds, aquatic + terrestrial) - Regional lah Centres, - AH (OFFLU/GLEWS) - VPH - sustainable animal agriculture - nrm / wildlife health - impact assessment - partnerships; - social resilience : DALY equivalents in terms of food security / livelihood effects grams of protein not generated in a given smallholder production system because of local disease burden? Influenza A host radiation main agricultural encroachment H1, 3 +? in domestic pigs? human influenza A H1,3 H1 H3? H1,3 HPAI H5,7 + H9 terrestrial wild birds H1-16 * * * HPAI H5,7? + H9? H1? others? H1,3 H1-16 HPAI H5,7 + H9 H1-16 / other HA subtypes domestic waterfowl? terrestrial poultry HPAI H5 HPAI H7? H5? H7?? H1-16 * wild water bird reservoir H1-16 H1-16 *: so far not sustained; spill- over only slide 4 16
H5N1 niche map Can we fix the emerging disease challenge? yes, provided we start respecting the landscape pathogen linkages global food animal supplies S H E landscape bound O/I t...and smartly blend productivity and sustainability 17