UNICEF IPV Tender: Demand Forecast UNICEF Bidder s Conference WHO, Geneva 11 October 2013 1
Overview of forecast To inform financial resource requirements, Supply and Procurement Roadmap development and IPV tender strategy Forecasts were generated only through globallevel discussions with partners; future iterations will be refined with country input Forecast scope is all 124 OPV using countries that will be introducing IPV by end 2015 2
Strategic Demand Forecast (SDF) Number of projected doses of IPV Base (End game) Scenario High (Ideal) Scenario
Important caveats Limited country input at time of projections It is based on modeling at the global level Country introduction estimated timing (by month): likely to change Included in the tender to provide only an indication for supply planning Some have confirmed through the UNICEF annual forecast and have been adjusted in the tender demand forecast
Assumptions behind introduction date projections The GPEI prioritization Tiering and GPEI goals for type 2 withdrawal were the key drivers for determining the 2014 and 2015 projections. Tier 1 and Tier 2 countries together comprise 75% of the total birth cohort and GPEI and WHO/IVB aim to prioritise their introduction, including an acceleration of introduction, if possible beginning in 2014 for a number of the priority countries. Other planned vaccine introductions occurring simultaneously (i.e. Nigeria expected PCV introduction in Q4 2014) Cold chain capacity and general health systems, and potential for early introduction with external and/or cold chain support Track record in new vaccine introductions Regional inputs and country commitments/indications.
Assumptions behind estimated quantities 1 dose vaccination schedule for all countries, introduced at DTP3 Surviving infants as per UNDP World Population Prospect 2012 revision, medium variant; Exception: India 2011 census data DTP3 coverage rates as of July 2013 (obtained from WUENIC* estimates) with 1% increase per year Immediate uptake, except for larger countries with known phased implementation of new vaccines (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, etc.), which was estimated at 2 years 5 and 10 dose vials, assuming 100% in 10 dose vials in 2014 and phasing in 5 dose vials from 2015 so that almost 100% demand is in 5 dose vials from 2017 50% wastage for 10 dose vial presentation and 10% wastage for a 5 dose vial presentation *WHO and UNICEF Estimates of Immunization Coverage
Scope of UNICEF tender demand In line with the Base (Endgame) Scenario Adjustments made for countries with confirmed forecasts Includes demand for the following: GAVI-eligible and GAVI-graduating countries (excluding PAHO Member States) All countries currently procuring through UNICEF for their routine polio and other routine requirements (including MICs) Countries currently procuring IPV through UNICEF (State of Palestine and Lebanon) MICs and other usually self-procuring countries recently procuring other vaccines through UNICEF Countries expressing interest to procure through UNICEF through their annual forecast sent to UNICEF or through other communication Other typically self-procuring countries that have provided indications that they may procure through UNICEF for at least some of the tender period, including China, India and Indonesia. Programmatic tender demand forecast Segment 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total GAVI73* 6,642,244 44,664,617 48,341,143 42,982,764 43,590,825 186,221,593 GAVI eligible 6,612,422 42,182,238 46,121,440 41,100,887 41,697,515 177,714,502 GAVI graduating 29,822 2,482,379 2,219,703 1,881,877 1,893,310 8,507,091 India - 11,898,833 22,123,728 20,454,097 20,504,514 74,981,172 China - 16,808,702 24,910,069 18,984,772 18,559,154 79,262,697 Indonesia - 1,845,083 3,382,687 3,489,946 3,448,249 12,165,966 Other MICs 2,228,425 9,543,078 13,774,847 12,204,250 12,171,012 49,921,613 Existing IPV countries 174,702 240,000 326,000 335,000 341,220 1,416,922 Total 2014-2018 IPV tender demand 9,045,371 85,000,313 112,858,474 98,450,829 98,614,975 403,969,962 *Excluding Ukraine, India, Indonesia and PAHO member states Excludes from demand: PAHO countries (both GAVI and non-gavi) Current IPV-using countries, except for Lebanon and Palestine
MIC Demand based on likelihood of procuring through UNICEF Country GNI per capita (current US$)* HDI rank (UNDP 2012) Health Expenditure (WB 2011) Traditional procurement mechanism IPV Procurement through UNICEF Annual quantities (doses) % GDP % public 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Albania 4,090 70 6.3 44.8 UNICEF Likely 125,000 120,000 180,000 180,000 180,000 Algeria 4,110 (2011) 93 3.9 80.8 Self-procuring Uncertain - 594,419 1,064,360 941,897 924,065 Botswana 7,430 119 5.1 60.8 Self-procuring Possible 35,002 64,409 53,949 49,006 48,901 Cape Verde 3,810 132 4.8 75.1 Mixed Possible - 5,999 10,815 9,654 9,574 China 5,680 101 5.2 55.9 Self-procuring Possible - 16,808,702 24,910,069 18,984,772 18,559,154 Egypt 3,000 112 4.9 40.5 Self-procuring Possible - 1,180,395 2,138,908 1,916,466 1,908,292 Fiji 4,200 96 3.8 68.1 UNICEF Likely - 11,624 20,798 18,458 18,201 Gabon 10,070 106 3.2 53.4 UNICEF Likely - 30,147 55,940 51,317 52,231 Iran 4,290 (2009) 76 6.0 39.7 Self-procuring Uncertain - 952,500 1,703,777 1,507,471 1,479,126 Iraq 5,870 131 8.3 80.7 Self-procuring Uncertain - 1,200,382 1,045,962 899,153 924,511 Lebanon 9,190 72 6.3 25.5 UNICEF Likely 20,625 42,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 Libya 12,930 (2009) 64 4.4 68.8 Self-procuring Uncertain 97,085 176,231 145,728 130,392 128,050 Macedonia 4,700 78 6.6 61.4 Self-procuring Uncertain 16,796 30,680 25,538 23,039 22,837 Maldives 5,750 104 8.5 44.4 UNICEF Likely 50,000 45,000 43,611 42,887 42,121 Mauritius 8,570 80 5.9 40.3 Self-procuring Possible - 9,388 17,037 15,310 15,316 Morocco 2,950 130 6.0 34.3 UNICEF Likely 800,000 1,489,330 1,424,153 775,368 759,757 Namibia 5,640 128 5.3 57.1 Self-procuring Possible 39,725 74,674 63,952 59,310 60,408 Palestine (State of) N/A No ranking - - UNICEF Likely 154,077 198,000 281,000 290,000 296,220 Philippines 2,470 114 4.1 33.3 Mixed Possible 1,000,000 2,000,000 4,409,295 4,437,724 4,464,170 Samoa 3,220 96 7.0 89.0 UNICEF Likely - 2,985 5,367 4,791 4,762 Serbia 5,280 64 10.4 62.2 Self-procuring Uncertain 64,817 117,570 97,396 87,498 86,436 Seychelles 11,640 46 3.8 92.1 Self-procuring Uncertain - 973 1,732 1,532 1,507 Swaziland 2,860 141 8.0 69.4 Self-procuring Possible - 52,750 44,480 37,113 37,068 Thailand 5,210 103 4.1 75.5 Self-procuring Uncertain - 1,023,708 847,523 696,889 687,730 Tonga 4,240 95 5.3 83.6 UNICEF Likely - 1,652 2,961 2,642 2,627 Tunisia 4,150 94 6.2 55.1 Self-procuring Possible - 284,380 237,551 196,232 193,823 Turkmenistan 5,550 102 2.7 60.8 UNICEF Likely - 70,497 127,716 114,304 113,581 Tuvalu 6,070 No ranking 17.3 99.9 UNICEF Likely - 140 257 232 233 Vanuatu 3,080 No ranking 4.1 87.9 UNICEF Likely - 3,243 6,040 5,564 5,685 Likely demand: based on demand from MICs that traditionally procure through UNICEF, including existing IPV countries already procuring through UNICEF. Possible demand: based on countries that have recently procured some vaccines through UNICEF, expressed interest in procuring other vaccines through UNICEF (such as other new vaccines) or expressed interest in procuring some or all IPV through UNICEF for IPV introduction. Uncertain demand: based on remaining countries without indication of procurement channel. Separate Answer Sheet to respond specifically to potential MIC demand
Procurement Forecast Programmatic demand translated into a supply procurement forecast Supply requirements 1 Q earlier than projected introduction dates Includes 1Q of 2019 in Q4 2018 requirements Table 4. Total Procurement Forecast by Quarter and Year Procurement Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total 2014 2,410,000 6,616,000 15,488,000 24,514,000 2015 17,616,000 25,431,000 26,373,000 28,229,000 97,649,000 2016 2017 2018 109,257,000 98,492,000 98,210,000 Total 2014-2018 428,122,000 **2018 includes a portion of estimated demand for 2019 programme requirements Table 5: Procurement Forecast by Country Segment (GAVIeligible) Country Segment 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total GAVI 73* 16,167,000 47,165,000 47,002,000 43,135,000 43,768,000 197,237,000 GAVI eligible 15,545,000 44,720,000 44,867,000 41,250,000 41,873,000 188,255,000 GAVI graduating 622,000 2,445,000 2,135,000 1,885,000 1,895,000 8,982,000 India - 17,430,000 21,706,000 20,467,000 20,540,000 80,143,000 Indonesia - 2,690,000 3,410,000 3,480,000 3,457,000 13,037,000 Total 16,167,000 67,285,000 72,118,000 67,082,000 67,765,000 290,417,000 *Excluding Ukraine, India, Indonesia and PAHO member states Table 6: Procurement Forecast by Country Segment (other MICs) Country Segment 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total China 4,202,000 18,835,000 23,429,000 18,878,000 18,448,000 83,792,000 Other MIC 3,870,000 11,317,000 13,382,000 12,195,000 11,655,000 52,419,000 IPV existing 275,000 212,000 328,000 337,000 342,000 1,494,000 Total 8,347,000 30,364,000 37,139,000 31,410,000 30,445,000 137,705,000
Breakdown of vial mix in SDF WHO and regions have indicated preferences for a lower multi-dose vial (MDV), including a 5 dose vial. Proportion of supply requirements for 5 and 10 dose vials WHO is working on facilitating the regulatory pathway for pre-qualification of low/no-preservative IPV MDVs. The demand forecast is based on a 5 and 10 dose vial presentation. Some countries may prefer a lower-dose vial size (1 or 2 dose). Demand for these lower-dose presentations is expected to be limited relative to the 5 and 10 dose vials. The current demand forecast is based on 10% wastage for 5 dose vial presentation. This wastage rate is currently under review and could be increased based on global programmatic recommendations or actual country experiences. Vial size 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10 dose 100% 70% 60% 0% 0% 5 dose 0% 30% 40% 100% 100%
Uncertainties in demand Potential upsides: Vial size preference and wastage rates (WR): 30-50 million doses if 5 dose vial is 30% WR, at current SDF assumptions. Any change in vial size preference to 10 dose would increase forecasts due to WR. DTP3 coverage rates vs. Administrative data from countries and/or improved DTP3 coverage rates IPV delivery strategies to improve coverage (outreach activities, etc) # of doses per schedule (1 vs 2 or more doses; 2 countries shifting to 2 dose schedule) Potential downsides: Slower uptake from countries, late decisions to introduce Country readiness (cold chain capacity, systems weaknesses) Countries procuring through UNICEF Delays in implementation of GAVI processes/applications/funds transfer Demand for alternative IPV products? UNICEF will provide quarterly updates highlighting changes in demand that would affect the quantities in the RFP. Any additional awards required due to changes in the demand forecast may be made under the terms and conditions of this RFP.