Cowlitz County 2005-2007 Substance Abuse and Violence Prevention Collaborative Needs Assessment Risk and Protective Factors by Domain and Prevalence Indicators - 5/23/05 COMMUNITY DOMAIN RISK FACTORS Availability of Drugs Perceived Availability Of Drugs Archival Data 1 (**) Risk Factor Higher than State Average (bold) Risk Factor is Noticeably Higher (Cowlitz v. State Average) **Alcohol retail licenses (2.08 v. 1.99/1000 2003 data) 2.08 v 1.91 (2003) 2.39 v 1.91 (2001) **Tobacco sales licenses (1.71 v. 1.44/1000 2001 data) 1.71 v 1.48 (2003) 1.78 v 1.54 (2001) Community Domain/Risk Factors Healthy Youth Survey 2 Risk Factors too high but not different from state average (bold) Risk Factor is Noticeably or Statistically Significantly Higher (Cowlitz v. State Average) **Among Cowlitz County 10 th graders there was a higher perceived availability of drugs (40.4) vs. state (31.8) Availability is statistically significantly higher. **HYS02 showed Cowlitz County 8th graders perceived availability of drugs was higher (31.9) vs. state (29.3) Local/Other Data (**) Concern about Risk or Protective Factor (bold) Special Concern (Cowlitz v. State Average) Meth lab busts have declined, but: 1) meth is now being made in single container labs ; and 2) meth is being imported into Cowlitz County via I-5. (2005 - Cowlitz County Sheriff) Rural Cowlitz County citizens report seeing many meth labs and dumpsites in the woods of Cowlitz County (2005 Meth Input Forum) 1 Archival data is from Research and Data Analysis, DASA. All data is 2003 unless otherwise noted. 2 2004 Healthy Youth Survey, Cowlitz County. All school districts participated. Page 1
Availability of Firearms Community Laws & Norms Favorable Toward Drug Use and Violence Media Portrayals of Violence Community Domain/Risk Factors ATF has targeted Cowlitz County for career criminals involved with firearms (The Daily News) **10th graders Laws and Norms favorable to drug use higher than the state average **In the past 30 days, 10 th graders used tobacco on school property 11.7% v 7.7% 46% of county residents keep a firearm in their homes v 30% in state (60% in rural Cowlitz County areas) (2001 BRFSS county v state) Community laws and norms are improving: Cowlitz County Meth Initiative Compliance checks Vortex I Detection canines in schools Meth Watch Smoking policies Drug paraphernalia Toughman/extreme fighting No beer garden at Cowlitz County Fair (2005) PeaceHealth/St. John Medical Center systems change around tobacco patient interventions and policies (CM Policy Board 2005) Local high age school boxing death directly related to Toughman/extreme fighting events held in Cowlitz County (CM Policy Board 2003) Page 2
Transitions & Mobility Community Domain/Risk Factors Existing home sales (15.94 v. 22.63/1000 2002 data) 14.76 v 21.29 (2001) 12.95 v 20.61 (1999) Net migration three year moving average (3.06 v 5.50) The 2005 homeless point-in-time count in Cowlitz County shows 689 individuals were homeless with 25% of those reporting substance abuse as their main reason for being homeless. (CWCOG 20005) Low Neighborhood Attachment & Community Disorganization **New residence construction (5.18 v. 6.87/1000 2002 data) 4.43 v 6.52 (2001) **Population not registered to vote (27.20 v. 26.53/100) 26.41 v 24.75 (2001) 27.87 v 27.41 (1999) Not statistically different from statewide averages 45% or respondents feel they can t make a difference in their community (2002 MAPP, Cowlitz County Health Dept.) Population not voting in November election (55.48 v. 59.51/100 2001 data) 54.42 v 55.49 (2001) 44.42 v 42.23 (1999) **Prisoners in state correctional systems (349 v 205/100K) 274 v 128 (2001) 222 v 117 (1999) Page 3
Extreme Economic Deprivation **Children in aid to families programs (102.89 v. 64.24/1000) 95.06 v 64.19 (2002) 135.21 v. 75.41 (2001) **% of births in which mother was a participant in WIC 50.4% v. 36.3% (Health of Cowlitz County 2003 report) **Food stamp recipients (118.99 v. 72.29/1000) 103.99 v 63.49 (2002) 93.61 v 57.31 (2001) **Unemployment, age 16+ (10.25% v. 7.54% 2003) 10.1 v 7.4 (January 2003) 7.11 v 4.72 (2001) **Median household income less than state 2000 (39,800 v 45,700) 2001 (40,000 v 51,000) 2002 (42,959 v 50,568) (US Census) **Percent of Cowlitz County adults 25+ years who have at least a bachelor s degree (13.3 v 27.7% state 2000 US Census) Mortgage company foreclosures: 2003 560 2002 549 2001 460 2000 366 1999 258 1998 158 1997 114 (Cowlitz County Assessor) Page 4
Community Discussion Community Domain/Risk Factors Perceived Availability of Drugs There appears to be a cohort issue throughout this report. Those who were 8 th graders two years ago and are now 10 th graders were and appear to still be, higher at-risk. Transitions and Mobility It s really expensive to move now. TDN letters to the editor: This community is miserable. I m moving. Some people in recovery they have to move away to stay clean. New middle school structure in Kelso. Third middle school in Longview. The face of our community is changing again: Hispanic migrant and non-migrant families are increasing. African Americans are leaving California and coming to Cowlitz County. A large influx of residents from California is causing a high rate of home sales, bidding wars on homes, and homes being purchased site unseen. Extreme Economic Deprivation Foreclosures are tied to the current economy Page 5
Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards Community Domain/Protective Factors No Data Much community awareness has been created and the community is responding: Meth Cowlitz County Meth Initiative Media coverage TDN/KLTV/Portland stations (CM Policy Board 2005) Opportunities **Cowlitz 10 th grade students were higher than the state for opportunities for prosocial involvement. Recognition Not statistically different from statewide averages North Kelso and other areas have strong blockwatch groups (CM policy Board 2005) Community Discussion Opportunities Cowlitz County has a strong recovery community, including five Oxford Houses, Community House on Broadway, and transitional housing programs. Many opportunities have been put into place in the Highlands neighborhood of Longview: Computer homework center, community gardens, Archie Anderson park activities, basketball and other sports contests and clinics, and community events. Page 6
Family History of the Behavior Family Domain/Risk Factors In Cowlitz County, the estimated rate of need for alcohol and drug treatment among adults at or below 200% of the Federal Poverty Level is 14.0%. (State = 13.6%) Five years ago it was 10.6%. (2003 Washington State Needs Assessment Household Survey) **Adults in state-funded alcohol and drug treatment (16.92 v. 11.89/1000 2000 data) 15.42 v 11.46 (2000) 12.51 v 11.31 (1999) Alcohol- or drug-related deaths (9.11 v. 9.62/100 2002 data) 5.64 v 5.56 (2001) 6.10 v. 5.55 (1998) **Adult violent crime arrests (2.23 v. 1.58/1000 2002 data) 2.26 v 1.75 (2000) 2.24 v 1.65 (1999) % of Adults reporting lifetime use of marijuana 44.0 v 38.4 (2003 Washington State Needs Assessment Household Survey) Local cases of Hepatitis C are on the decline: 2002 211 2003 238 2004 118 (2005 Report for Communicable Disease in Cowlitz County) **IDU rate - County syringe exchange program indicated 255,000 syringes exchanged 2004 283,000 syringes exchanged 2002 (Cowlitz County Health Department Annual Report 2004, Cowlitz County Health Dept., Annual Needle Exchange Evaluation 3/02) Page 7
Family Management Problems **Victims of child abuse and neglect in accepted referrals (98.59 v 41.15/1000) 59.42 v 38.17 (2001) 93.59 v 37.48 (1999) **12th graders high but not statistically higher than state average. Family Conflict **Injury or accident hospitalizations for children (4.45 v 3.65% - 2002 data) **Divorce (7.14 v. 6.05/1000 2002 data) 7.49 v 5.86 (2001) 7.22 v 6.40 (1999) **Rate of domestic violence arrests in Cowlitz County (9.6 v 4.8 state/100,000 2003 data Washington State Patrol) **Domestic violence arrests (9.69 v 5.34/1000 2002 data) 9.68 v 6.61 (2001) 9.63 v. 7.29 (1998) Domestic violence offenses (6.68 v 6.69/1000 2002 data) 8.67 v 6.87 (2001) 8.13 v 6.86 (1999) Page 8
Favorable Parental Attitudes and Involvement in the Problem Behavior. Family Domain/Risk Factors **Among 10 th grade Cowlitz **Adults in Cowlitz County are County youth there was a smoking less, but still more than the significantly higher rate state average (56.3 v 41.8) of parents who have (24.5% v 21.2% - 2003 BRFSS) favorable attitudes towards drug use. **Women who smoke during their pregnancy (24.7% Cowlitz County v 10.9% state - 2003 Birth Certificates) 28.9 v 11.6 (2002) 21.6 v 14.6 (1998) One third of adults in the county who drank alcohol and lived in households with children were heavy drinkers, a rate significantly different than adults in households without children (21%) (2001 BRFSS) The number of babies born drugaffected has reached epidemic proportions (September 2003 - Cowlitz County CPS) Page 9
Community Discussion Family Domain/Risk Factors Family History There is still a concern that a lot of deaths are alcohol- and drug-related, but are not reported as such. How do we change this so the data accurately reflects what s happening in the community? (A review of death certificates by SWRSN identified undercounting of deaths from overdose by Oxycontin in 2002) The community noted that number of years of education is a predictive factor, and that our number of years of school is lower than the state average. Family Management Problems Injury or accident hospitalizations of children may be due to abuse. The new effort to implement a Family Dependency Treatment Court will affect this risk factor. Need data on out-of-home placements. Family Conflict The dichotomy between DV arrests and DV offenses (incidents) is interesting and may reflect Cowlitz County norms around arresting those involved in DV incidents. Favorable Parental Attitudes and Involvement in the Behavior There is an increase in number of women using meth. If you use meth, you are not worried about smoking, drinking alcohol, or being violent. Page 10
Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards Family Domain/Protective Factors **Adults in state-funded alcohol % of Cowlitz County adults who need and drug treatment drug or alcohol treatment and are (16.92 v. 11.89/1000 2000 data) eligible for DASA funded services 15.42 v 11.46 (2000) and actually receive treatment 12.51 v 11.31 (1999) 46.2 v 26.2 (2003 Washington State Needs Assessment Household Survey) 204 Cowlitz County residents called the Washington State Quitline in 2003. Quitline calls continue to increase with 292 during 2004 and a sharp increase noted in March 2005. Cowlitz County s 2004 calls were 2.2% of total calls compared to 1.6% of total population. (WA DOH Quitline reports) Bonding:. Attachment Opportunities **6th, 8th, 10th graders Opportunities for prosocial involvement in the family were lower than the state average, but not significantly lower Recognition Community discussion Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards: Increase in Quitline calls due partially to partnership with PeaceHealth/St. John Medical Center and systems changes taking place there. There is a lot of foster care in Cowlitz County. Bonding Attachment: Mothers leaving treatment are being reunited with their children. Page 11
Academic Failure Beginning in Late Elementary School School Domain/Risk Factors **Poor academic performance, Not significantly different than Percent of students failing at least one statewide averages section of the WASL. Grade 10 (76.10 v 66.38%) Grade 7 (75.82 v 72.76%) Grade 4 (71.11 v 65.56%) grade 10 77.02 v 69.78% (2002) grade 7 77 v 70% (2002) grade 4 79% v 71% (2002) Lack of Commitment to School **Freshmen who leave school before their senior year (33.42 v 22.00% - 2002 data) 6 th grade Cowlitz County youth showed a greater commitment to school (39.7) vs. state (44.4). School Domain/Risk Factors Community Discussion Drugs Available in Schools should be a risk factor in the School Domain. Lack of Commitment to School: Greater commitment to school means less school loss. Page 12
School Domain/Protective Factors Healthy Beliefs and Positive activities include: Clear Standards implementing detection canine policies school board involvement in drug issues school resource officers prevention/interventionists (CM Policy Board 2005) Bonding Opportunities Not significantly different than statewide averages Recognition Not significantly different than statewide averages Community Discussion Bonding: The Teen Mentor Program increases school attendance of mentees. Page 13
Individual Peer Domain/Risk Factors Early and Persistent Anti-social Behavior Not significantly different than statewide averages Rebelliousness Friends Who Engage in the Problem Behavior **Among 10 th grade Cowlitz County youth there was a statistically significant higher interaction with Antisocial Peers (53.3) vs. (45.2) state. **Among 12 th grade Cowlitz County youth there was a statistically significant higher interaction with Antisocial Peers (55.3) vs. (46.1) state. Interaction with Prosocial Peers was a statistically significant lower percentage (42.6) vs. (54.1) state. Page 14
Favorable Attitudes Toward the Problem Behavior Individual Peer Domain/Risk Factors ** 10 th graders in Cowlitz County report significantly higher cigarette use 17.3 v 13 **Adolescent clients of state-funded alcohol or drug services (16.96 v 11.37/1000 2002 data) 15.49 v 12.35 (2000) 11.00 v 12.76 (1999) ** 10 th graders in Cowlitz County report significantly higher alcohol use in the past 30 days 38.9 v 32.6 **10 th graders who, when offered alcohol by a friend at a party, would drink it 43.0% v 35.6% **12 th graders at Kelso High School who have used meth in their lifetime 13% v 6.3% Perceived risks of drug use **8th graders were significantly more favorable to risks of drug use than statewide averages (i.e. they felt there is less risk for using drugs) County (42) vs. state (35) **HYS02 showed 6th grade youth were also significantly more favorable to risks of drug use than statewide averages (i.e. they felt there is less risk for using drugs)county (27.2) vs. state (22.6) Page 15
Individual Peer Domain/Risk Factors Early Initiation of Problem Behavior **Alcohol or drug-related arrests, age 10-14 (4.62 v. 3.11/1000 2002 data) 5.59 v 3.63 (2000) 7.18 v. 3.56 (1999) Juvenile property crime arrests (16.53 v. 20.04/1000 2002 data) 27.97 v 24.91 (2000) 32.29 v 26.77 (1999) Vandalism arrests, age 10-14 (0.92 v. 2.35/1000 2002 data)(3) 2.15 v 2.79 (2000) 2.21 v. 2.83 (1999) **Among 10 th grade Cowlitz County Youth there was a statistically significant higher rate than statewide averages for early initiation of drug use (37.7 v 29.2) **Among 12 th grade Cowlitz County Youth there was a statistically significant percentage of early initiation of drug use (47.1 v 33) **10 th graders reported higher than state average rates of smoking cigarettes (17.3 v 13.0) (margin of error +/- 2.4 v 1.4) Rewards for antisocial involvement **8th graders perceived rewards at a lower rate than statewide average, but not significantly Intention to use No significant differences from statewide average Constitutional Factors Page 16
Community Discussion Individual Peer Domain/Risk Factors Where does mental health fit in? Friend Who Engage in the Problem Behavior: What are the questions behind anti-social peers? By choice? Think about your four best friends (the friends you feel closest to). In the past year how many of your best friends have: 248. Been suspended from school? 249. Carried a handgun? 250. Sold illegal drugs? 251. Stolen or tried to steal a motor vehicle such as a car or motorcycle? 252. Been arrested? 253. Dropped out of school? Favorable Attitudes Toward the Problem Behavior: No local inpatient treatment for adolescents. Lack of options for outpatient treatment. 10 th and 12 th grade data is even worse that reported given that 33.33% of Freshmen don t finish their senior year, i.e. the most at-risk students leave school before they take the survey and aren t included in the data Community notes that rates of co-occurring disorders are growing in youth being seen in treatment programs. Meth use results in COD. When and where are they using? Perceived Risk of Drug Use: There appears to be a cohort issue throughout this report. Those who were 8 th graders two years ago and are now 10 th graders were and appear to still be, higher at-risk. Early Initiation of the Problem Behavior: What are the questions on the survey that get to a higher rate of initiation? How old were you the first time you: 217. smoked marijuana? 219. smoked a cigarette, even just a puff? 220. Had more than a sip or two of beer, wine, or hard liquor? 222. Began drinking alcoholic beverages regularly, that is, at least once or twice a month? Youth indicate that while they may have tried something at an early age of seven or nine, active use began around seventh grade. How does drug use in the home impact this data? Significantly? -- Parental Attitude Favorable towards Drug Use was 56.3 vs. 41.8 state for 10 th grade Page 17
Individual Peer Domain/Protective Factors Healthy Beliefs and Clear Standards **Adolescent clients of state-funded alcohol or drug services (16.96 v 11.37/1000 2002 data) 15.49 v 12.35 (2000) 11.00 v 12.76 (1999) Bonding Social Skills **Higher rate than state for eighth graders, but not significant Belief in moral order Community Discussion Agencies in the community are focusing on treatment opportunities for pregnant women. No such focus exists for treatment for adolescents. However, the Cowlitz County Substance Abuse Advisory Board is currently surveying the community about adolescent treatment services. Bonding: The Teen Mentor Program creates a bond between mentor and mentee in this school-based program. Page 18
Cowlitz County Prevalence Indicators Prevalence indicators directly measure problem behaviors. Prevalence measures serve as the long-term outcome measures for prevention work. If we reduce risk factors and raise protective factors, in the long run prevalence indicators will show a decline in problem behaviors. PREVALENCE: CRIME Non-Violent Crime Prevalence: Crime Adult property crime arrests (6.15 v. 6.35/1000 2002 data) 7.87 v 6.67 (2000) 8.88 v 6.80 (1999). Violence Juvenile property crime arrests (16.53 v. 20.04/1000 2002 data) 27.97 v 24.91 (2000) 32.29 v 26.77 (1999) **Adult violent crime arrests (2.23 v. 1.58/1000 2002 data) 2.26 v 1.75 (2000) 2.24 v 1.65 (1999) **Violent crime arrests, age 10-17 (3.17 v. 2.0)37/1000 2002 data) 4.59 v 2.92 (2000) 3.64 v 2.96 (1999) Weapons incidents at school (2.37 v 2.71/1000 2001 data) Page 19
PREVALENCE: SUBSTANCE USE Substance Use Prevalence: Substance Use **Adolescent clients of state-funded alcohol or drug services (16.96 v 11.37/1000 2002 data) 15.49 v 12.35 (2000) 11.00 v 12.76 (1999) **Annual rate of drug-related deaths in Cowlitz County (16.4 v 10 state/100,000 2003 Washington DOH) Adult alcohol-related arrests (8.02 v. 11.57/1000 2002) 3 15.23 v 10.44 (2000) 12.31 v 10.91 (1999) Adult drug-related arrests/drug law violations (3.76 v. 5.60/1000 2003 data) 3.52 v 6.07 (2000) 2.91 v 5.40 (1999) Alcohol-related traffic fatalities 33.33 v 39.76/100 2002 data 42.86 v 37.44 (2000) 40.00 v 38.15 (1999) **Juvenile alcohol violation arrests (12.39 v. 7.95/1000 2002 data) 22.39 v 9.02 (2000) 17.65 v 9.40 (1999) Juvenile drug law violation arrests (3.94 v. 4.96/1000 2002 data) 4.59 v 5.16 (2000) 4.61 v 4.76 (1999) 3 Data may differ from prior report due to refinement of the population adjustment process Page 20
PREVALENCE: OTHER Adolescent Sexual Behavior Prevalence: Other Young people with sexually transmitted diseases (3.14 v. 4.09/1000) 1.79 v 3.31 (2001) 2.18 v 3.23 (1999) **Birthrate among adolescents 10-17 (9.30 v. 6.61/1000 2002 data) 7.87 v 7.01 (2001) 9.73 v 8.62 (1999). 236 cases of chlamydia were reported in 2003, with 14 of those being reported by 13-14 year olds (June 2004 The Daily News) Gonorrhea cases grew from 15 in 2003 to 51 in 2004 resulting in Cowlitz County ranking fourth in the state per capita (May 2005 The Daily News) Suicide **Adolescent suicide & attempts (138.42 v. 52.10/100,000) 181.67 v 52.53 (2001) 207.11 v 53.56 (1999) 4.9% of 8 th graders reported having attempted suicide, but this is not significantly different from the state. Community Discussion PREVALENCE INDICATORS Non-Violent Crime: Check criteria for booking juveniles in Cowlitz County. Compare to other counties. Substance Use: The decrease in alcohol-related traffic fatalities seems to be an anomaly. Is there a problem with reporting? Adolescent Sexual Behavior: 2003 teen pregnancy data is expected to increase. For questions regarding this report contact: Ramona Leber, Coordinator, Cowlitz Substance Abuse Coalition 360-577-3041, rleber@cwcog.org Page 21