For more information about the final programme, speakers or the EHFG conference please contact us directly! SAVE THE DATE! 18th EHFG: 30 September 02 October 2015
Getting to zero How we could be the generation to end extreme poverty Reviewing the progress in health-related MDGs and building the foundations for the new post-2015 health development agenda
What I ll Present Progress and Opportunities Our 2015 Vision & research UN Post 2015 process Europe s role
Progress & Opportunity Unprecedented rates of progress. Post-2015 framework needed: Addresses gaps & finish the job. Has poverty eradication at its core Maintains momentum & continuity Is bold, ambitious and inspiring
Progress & Opportunity Have seen unprecedented rates of progress
Inequality remains problematic
MDG 6 Combating HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases
MDG 5 Improving Maternal Health
MDG 4 Reduce Child Mortality
Healthcare is fragmented
There are Initiatives to harmonize to address fragmentation
Vertical versus GLOBAL FUNDS RAISE VERTICALLY SPEND HORIZONTAL Horizontal Policy making suffers from Fashions and must have items It also Benefits/ suffers from political attention
Low Hanging fruit Aid now looks for value for money so chases the low hanging fruit we need to value systemic improvement someone has to fund ladders if we are to reach the best fruit
Progress & Opportunity
Our post-2015 vision Zero goals for: Extreme income poverty Hunger Access to water & sanitation Preventable child & maternal deaths, & universal healthcare Quality education & learning outcomes Freedom from violence Sustainable energy
Getting to zero: feasible? New projections of potential future rates of : Preventable child mortality Access to safe water Access to basic sanitation Children who complete primary school
Our projections Focus on how we could accelerate change through tackling two root drivers of poverty: Income inequality poor governance.
Our Three projected Scenarios 1. Business as usual: inequality trends continue 2. Tackling inequality: income inequality falls to lowest levels since 80s. 3. Improving inequality and governance: as above, plus improving governance measures
Our findings Goal area Under five child mortality Target Business as usual 20/1000 30/1000 Scenarios Reducing income inequality 23/1000 Tackling inequality and improving Governance 20/1000 Governance improvements Voice and accountability Stunting 13.40% 18% Increase public 14% 12% spending on health Access to improved water Access to improved sanitation Education - reaching last grade of primary school 100% 95% 97% 99% Government effectiveness 100% 83% 90% 94% Government effectiveness 100% 94% 96% 98% Political stability
Under 5 Child Mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births) 80 Child mortality rates 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Actual Business As Usual Tackling Inequality Tackling Inequality and Improving Governance Target
Sanitation (% of population with access to improved facilities) 110% Access to basic sanitation 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Actual Business As Usual Tackling Inequality Tackling Inequality and Improving Governance Target
Under 5 Mortality Rate (per 1,000) Regional projections: child mortality 120 100 80 Sub-Saharan Africa 60 South Asia 40 20 LAC 0 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Going the last mile In sub-saharan Africa, a further 4% reduction per year reduction in child mortality rates would be needed to get to zero. BUT Rwanda and Botswana achieved over 10% average reduction per year (2000 to 2011) Liberia, Senegal and Malawi: over 6% a year. A further 2% for sanitation would be needed. BUT Malawi reduced open defecation by 8% a year. Angola and Ethiopia: over 3.5% a year
Our Research In Summary... Improving income inequality and governance could accelerate rates of change in all regions. By 2030, poverty is increasingly concentrated in a small number of countries. Many are conflict-affected and fragile states. Many are in sub-saharan Africa. Focus needed in both high burden countries, and everywhere else on reaching poorest and most marginalised.
Implications for post-2015 framework Zero goals to finish the job of the MDGs Goals, targets & indicators are needed to spur action to achieve them: Inequality at the core: social policies, leave no one behind, reducing income inequality. Goal on open, accountable & inclusive governance. Data revolution. Strong global partnership for development.
SDG Process Post-2015 Framework The UN post 2015 Process UNSG report HLP Report Special event on MDGs and post-2015 UNSG report UNDG 1 st report UNDG 2 nd report Sep 2014 Summit Mar 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2014 Sep 2015 OWG established OWG and SD Finance reports submitted to UNGA SD Finance established HLPF HLPF Dallo, J., UNDP, 2013, The Future We Want: Turning visions into goals where is the international process headed?
SDG s A movable feast The Goals, targets and indicators included in the SDG s have been a movable feast 1 st the High Level Panel was bit of a Road Show and now the OWG with its ever changing menu
Proposed Health Goals By 2030 3. Attain healthy lives for all at all ages 3.a strengthen implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control 3.b support R&D of vaccines & medicines for diseases that primarily affect developing countries, provide access to affordable essential medicines & vaccines, & support developing countries use of TRIPS flexibilities 3.c increase substantially the recruitment, development, training & retention of the health workforce in developing countries, especially in LDCs and SIDS 3.d strengthen the capacity for early warning, risk reduction, & management of national & global health risks
Proposed Health Goals By 2030 3. Attain healthy lives for all at all ages Global maternal mortality < 70 /100,000 live births, End preventable newborn, infant & under-five deaths End HIV/AIDS, TB, malaria, & neglected tropical disease epidemics reduce by 1/3 morbidity & mortality from NCDs strengthen prevention & treatment of substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse & harmful use of alcohol Halve deaths from road traffic injuries Achieve universal health coverage (UHC), Substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from air, hazardous chemicals, and water and soil pollution
UNIVERSAL HEALTH COVERAGE "The cube does not demonstrate the unevenness in society. There are a limited number of resources and these resources are not spread evenly across society." To achieve universal health coverage, countries have to make decisions within these uneven conditions. Bill Hsiao, 2013
Demands for UHC in +2015 Grow
SDG Process Post-2015 Framework The UN post 2015 Process UNSG report HLP Report Special event on MDGs and post-2015 UNSG report UNDG 1 st report UNDG 2 nd report Sep 2014 Summit Mar 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2014 Sep 2015 OWG established OWG and SD Finance reports submitted to UNGA SD Finance established HLPF HLPF Dallo, J., UNDP, 2013, The Future We Want: Turning visions into goals where is the international process headed?
EU Post 2015 Process EU position on Post 2015 due to be discussed under Italian Presidency EU position June Commission Communication did not address newborns or ENAP Mimica s Mission letter EC play leading role in UN process SRHR - EU consensus problematic
Europe s role more than agreeing the goals Universality of SDGs they apply to us too Many policies help reduce inequality Aid flows remain significant but also necessary to keep our 0.7% promise especially to build trust for Climate negotiations Good governance includes OUR role in global governance e.g. brain drain & capital flight
Europe s role
We could be the generation...