Short and Long Term Prognosis after Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring In Pre-Elderly and Elderly Patients Michael J. Blaha MD MPH Presented by: Michael J. Blaha July 24, 2017 1
Talk Outline 1. Coronary artery calcium (CAC), disease scores, and risk integration 2. CAC in pre-elderly patients 3. The MESA CHD Risk Score 4. CAC in elderly patients several caveats July 24, 2017 2
Coronary Artery Calcium and Risk Integration Part I July 24, 2017 3
~1 msv
Relationship of Calcification to Coronary Atherosclerosis 20% Rumberger, Circulation 1995 July 24, 2017 5
Continuum of Atherosclerosis Propagation Prior to a CHD Event Genetics Environment Funnel Risk Factors Biomarkers Subclinical Atherosclerosis Overt CAD
RISK Subclinical Disease Detection Model Integrates Risk Exposure!! 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 AGE
Coronary Artery Calcium in Pre-Elderly Patients Part II July 24, 2017 8
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CAC and Age Biologic Age > Chronologic Age Tota-Maharaj, et al. Mayo Clinic Proceedings. 2014 16
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CAC = 0
Comparing Negative Risk Markers in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis A CAC score of zero is the strongest negative risk factor for the development of ASCVD. Imaging Hypothesis due to superior sensitivity, imaging tests for subclinical atherosclerosis are excellent at ruling out or downgrading risk estimates. Blaha MJ, et al. Circulation. 2016
Important Covariates Influencing Likelihood Ratio for CAC=0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 0 Likelihood Ratio for Zero CAC 40 50 60 70 80 Age in years 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Pre-Test Risk Estimate (10-year CHD Risk) Age MESA FRS July 24, 2017 20
Percent of U.S. Adults Who Would Be Eligible for Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention, According to Set of Guidelines and Age Group. Pencina MJ et al. N Engl J Med 2014. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1315665
Nasir K et et al, JACC 2015
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The MESA CHD Risk Score Part III July 24, 2017 25
MESA CHD Risk Score
The MESA CHD Risk Score
The MESA CHD Risk Score
The MESA CHD Risk Score
Please download the MESA Risk Score app! Search MESA CHD Risk in the app store Currently only available for Android Coming soon for iphone!
Coronary Artery Calcium in Pre-Elderly Patients Several Caveats! Part IV July 24, 2017 32
Challenges in Risk Stratification in the Elderly All-cause mortality stratified by age and CAC Those with 75 years old have highest rate of long term (>10 years) all-cause mortality regardless of CAC group 1 Nakanishi, et al. EHJ IMG, 2015.
Cause specific mortality by CAC group <75 Years (2,436 deaths) 75 Years (722 deaths) CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer CAC=0 0.3 0.1 0.7 7.9 4.2 6.9 CAC 1-99 0.6 0.3 1.1 7.1 3.3 5.5 CAC 100-299 1.5 0.9 1.7 10.1 4.7 8.7 CAC 300 3.1 1.9 2.6 17.7 10.5 9.2
Cause specific mortality by CAC group <75 Years (2,436 deaths) 75 Years (722 deaths) CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer CAC=0 0.3 0.1 0.7 7.9 4.2 6.9 CAC 1-99 0.6 0.3 1.1 7.1 3.3 5.5 CAC 100-299 1.5 0.9 1.7 10.1 4.7 8.7 CAC 300 3.1 1.9 2.6 17.7 10.5 9.2
Cause specific mortality by CAC group <75 Years (2,436 deaths) 75 Years (722 deaths) CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer CAC=0 0.3 0.1 0.7 7.9 4.2 6.9 CAC 1-99 0.6 0.3 1.1 7.1 3.3 5.5 CAC 100-299 1.5 0.9 1.7 10.1 4.7 8.7 CAC 300 3.1 1.9 2.6 17.7 10.5 9.2
Cause specific mortality by CAC group <75 Years (2,436 deaths) 75 Years (722 deaths) CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer CAC=0 0.3 0.1 0.7 7.9 4.2 6.9 CAC 1-99 0.6 0.3 1.1 7.1 3.3 5.5 CAC 100-299 1.5 0.9 1.7 10.1 4.7 8.7 CAC 300 3.1 1.9 2.6 17.7 10.5 9.2
Cause-specific mortality by CAC category 50% <75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD 75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD
Cause-specific mortality by CAC category 50% <75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD 75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD
Cause-specific mortality by CAC category 50% <75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD 75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD
Cause-specific mortality by CAC category 50% <75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD 75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD
Cause-specific mortality by CAC category 50% <75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD 75 Years 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CAC 0 CAC 1-99 CAC 100-299 CAC 300 Cancer CVD CHD Non-CHD CVD
Hazard of cause-specific mortality CAC=0 CAC 1-99 Model 2 2.14 <75 Years 75 years CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference (1.67-2.75) CAC 100-299 Model 2 4.69 (3.60-6.13) CAC 300 Model 2 9.45 (7.45-11.99) 2.27 (1.55-3.34) 6.10 (4.13-9.01) 12.91 (9.07-18.37) 1.61 (1.36-1.91) 2.43 (1.98-2.99) 3.61 (2.99-4.35) 0.91 (0.51-1.62) 1.24 (0.71-2.17) 2.15 (1.29-3.59) 0.77 (0.35-1.72) 1.05 (0.48-2.30) 2.18 (1.08-4.37) Model 2 race, gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, diabetes, family history CHD 0.74 (0.40-1.39) 1.15 (0.63-2.10) 1.18 (0.67-2.06)
Hazard of cause-specific mortality CAC=0 CAC 1-99 Model 2 2.14 <75 Years 75 years CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference (1.67-2.75) CAC 100-299 Model 2 4.69 (3.60-6.13) CAC 300 Model 2 9.45 (7.45-11.99) 2.27 (1.55-3.34) 6.10 (4.13-9.01) 12.91 (9.07-18.37) 1.61 (1.36-1.91) 2.43 (1.98-2.99) 3.61 (2.99-4.35) 0.91 (0.51-1.62) 1.24 (0.71-2.17) 2.15 (1.29-3.59) 0.77 (0.35-1.72) 1.05 (0.48-2.30) 2.18 (1.08-4.37) Model 2 race, gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, diabetes, family history CHD 0.74 (0.40-1.39) 1.15 (0.63-2.10) 1.18 (0.67-2.06)
Hazard of cause-specific mortality CAC=0 CAC 1-99 Model 2 2.14 <75 Years 75 years CVD CHD Cancer CVD CHD Cancer Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference Reference (1.67-2.75) CAC 100-299 Model 2 4.69 (3.60-6.13) CAC 300 Model 2 9.45 (7.45-11.99) 2.27 (1.55-3.34) 6.10 (4.13-9.01) 12.91 (9.07-18.37) 1.61 (1.36-1.91) 2.43 (1.98-2.99) 3.61 (2.99-4.35) 0.91 (0.51-1.62) 1.24 (0.71-2.17) 2.15 (1.29-3.59) 0.77 (0.35-1.72) 1.05 (0.48-2.30) 2.18 (1.08-4.37) Model 2 race, gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, diabetes, family history CHD 0.74 (0.40-1.39) 1.15 (0.63-2.10) 1.18 (0.67-2.06)
SUMMARY AND TAKE HOME: CAC for Older Patients When Individualization of Prevention Is Required!! 1. When Risk/Decision to Treat is Uncertain Family History, Borderline lipids, Metabolic Syndrome 2. Statin Reluctant Patient 3. Statin Intolerant Patient 4. MESA CHD Risk Score very helpful! 5. Limited use in those >75 years old right now July 24, 2017 47
THANK YOU!
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