Canadian Convenience Stores Association Youth Contraband Tobacco Study, 2009 Wednesday, October 7 th, 2009 Canadian Convenience Stores Association 466 Speers Road, Suite 217 Oakville ON Canada L6K 3W9 Phone -(905) 845-9152 Fax -(905) 849-9947 1
Contents 1. Objectives 2. Methodology 3. Data Analysis 4. Sample Size and Tolerances 5. Conclusions 6. Context for the Study 7. Cigarette Butt Study - Key Findings 8. Share of Illegal Tobacco Products in Ontario 9. Appendix 2
1. Objectives To understand whether the youth segment is smoking un-taxed cigarettes and to what extent. Analyze prevalence of contraband tobacco products at 110 high schools in Ontario. Definition of 'illegal' (in terms of the baseline study) Duty Not Paid Appropriate government taxes and duty not paid. Counterfeit and suspected international brands were classified under 'illegal' tobacco products. 'Illegal' butts are those without branding, foreign or untaxed (native) brands. 3
2. Methodology Anonymous collection of cigarette butts Anonymously collect cigarette butts at previously identified (observed) smoking locations on public lands around high schools. The targets in this study were 110 high schools in Ontario. The selection of sites was based on geographic location and sociodemographic profiles of communities. The data gathering phase was implemented between April 22 nd and June 8 th, 2009. The results are based on a count of legal, illegal and unknown butts. 4
3. Data analysis Cigarette butts were sorted into 'legal', 'Illegal' and 'Unknown' clusters. Definitions: Legal: Cigarette butts with identifiable brand names of tax paid cigarette brands Illegal: Cigarette butts without branding, foreign or untaxed (native) brands. Unknown: Cigarette butts without identifiable markings to be classified as 'Legal' or 'Illegal'. 5
4a. Confidence level and margin or error The data has been tested for significance at the 95% confidence level with a 0.8% margin of error for the broad sample base. As margins of error for various sub-samples will vary based on sample size and proportion of the obtained result, a selection of sampling tolerances is presented in the following table. The data is based on Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) Standards. sample size margin of error margin of error (N) (fraction) (percentage) 100 0.100 10.0 500 0.045 4.5 1000 0.032 3.2 2000 0.022 2.2 5000 0.014 1.4 10000 0.012 1.2 15000 0.011 1.1 20000 0.008 0.8 30000 0.002 0.5 40000 0.002 0.4 6
4b. Sample Size and Tolerances The margin of error calculation is based on the population of the age group 15-19 years in Ontario. As per Statistics Canada data *, the population of the age group 15-19 in Ontario is as follows: Ontario: 833,115 Count of cigarette butts Total Legal Illegal Unknown Total (Legal/Illegal) Ontario 19,770 11584 4912 3,274 16,496 Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 16,496) +/- 0.77% * Statistics Canada- 2006 Community Profiles 7
4c. Sample Size in Ontario Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 16,496) Municipality/Area Sites Regional Municipality of Durham 11 Oshawa 3 Durham 2 Pickering 1 Whitby 4 Ajax 1 Regional Municipality of Peel 9 Brampton 4 Mississauga 5 Regional Municipality of York 11 Aurora 2 Markham 1 Newmarket 2 Thornhill 2 York Simcoe 4 Regional Municipality of Toronto 19 Toronto 4 North York 2 Etobicoke 5 Scarborough 8 Municipality/Area Sites Other areas 60 Hamilton 8 Windsor 7 Brantford 6 Cornwall 5 Ottawa 11 Kitchener 7 London 6 Oxford 4 Grey Bruce 2 Simcoe Region 4 TOTAL ONTARIO 110 8
Grey Bruce Ottawa Simcoe Cornwall York Kitchener Peel Durham London Toronto Windsor Hamilton Oxford Brantford Surveyed locations In Ontario
5. Conclusions Significant presence of 'illegal' tobacco in Ontario: Use of untaxed ('illegal') tobacco products continues to be significant among youth segments in Ontario. 30% of the 16,496 discernable cigarette butts collected from 185 sites at surveyed locations Ontario were found to be 'illegal'. Higher incidence of 'illegal' tobacco In Ontario, an estimated 30% of the cigarette butts collected from 110 sites were 'illegal'. Sites in several new cities were added in the 2009 survey, hence total incidence of contraband in the 2009 study is not comparable to the results of the 2008 study due to different sample bases. Widespread prevalence of contraband across geographic areas Use of untaxed ('illegal') tobacco products in the youth population is widespread. The trend in incidence of contraband over the past three years confirms that the prevalence of illegal tobacco products is not restricted to large urban areas. It is a growing trend in smaller cities. Increase in incidence of 'illegal' tobacco in areas surveyed in 2008 The incidence of 'illegal' butts increased by an average of 4% in 9 out of 11 cities in Ontario. Economically depressed areas have seen a relatively higher increase in contraband tobacco. 10
6. Context for this study Incidence of smoking in the population aged 15-19 years in Ontario Information source: Statistics Canada 11
6a. Incidence of under-age smoking in Ontario According to a Statistics Canada study ('Smokers, by province and territory, 2005'), 10.3% of individuals in the age group 15-19 years are smokers. The incidence of underage smokers is below the national level in Ontario (9.0%). All age groups 12 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 % of population aged 12 and older 65 and older Canada 16.5 1.1 10.3 19.9 21.0 18.7 8.8 Males 18.2 0.5 E 10.5 22.7 23.3 19.8 9.7 Females 14.9 1.7 E 10.0 17.2 18.6 17.6 8.1 Ont. 15.7 0.3 E 9.0 19.4 20.1 17.8 7.6 Males 17.8 F 8.9 24.1 22.2 19.4 8.2 Females 13.6 0.6 E 9.1 14.9 17.8 16.2 7.2 Source: Statistics Canada; Smokers, by province and territory, 2005 12
7. Cigarette Butt Study Key Findings 13
7a. Cigarette Butt classification The share of cigarette butts classified as 'legal', 'Illegal' and 'Unknown' are listed below. 17% of the cigarette butt samples reviewed were found to be of 'unknown' origin. The analysis in this report includes only 'legal' and 'illegal' cigarette butts to ensure data integrity. n= 33,834 Share Total (n) Total % Legal % Illegal % Unknown % Ontario 19,770 100 59 25 17 14
7a. Cigarette Butt classification (continued) The cigarette butts classified as 'unknown' were not included in the analysis. The total count of 'legal' and 'illegal' cigarette butts, excluding 'unknown' butts, is 16,496. Incidence of illegal tobacco was found to be 30% in Ontario in the areas surveyed in 2009. n= 16,496 2009 Total (n) Total % Legal % Illegal % Ontario 16,496 100 70 30 Margin of error calculation Results based on Ontario Sample (n= 16,359) +/- 1.27% 15
Count of municipalities/areas in Ontario with over 10% share of contraband tobacco In Ontario, 6 of the 55 municipalities/areas surveyed had over 40 percent share of 'illegal' cigarette butts. 11% of cities in Ontario have over 40% contraband incidence 60 50 55 Municipalities/ Areas surveyed 40 38 30 20 17 10 0 6 >40% >30% >20% >10% Ontario 16
8. Share of illegal tobacco products in Ontario Brantford Cornwall Durham Region Hamilton Kitchener Waterloo London Ottawa Oxford Peel Region Simcoe Region Bruce Grey Toronto Windsor York Region 17
Grey Bruce 27 Ottawa 23 Simcoe 28 York Windsor 20 34 London Kitchener 22 Brantford 37 34 Peel 39 Toronto 24 Durham 34 Cornwall 38 Oxford Hamilton 27 19 Incidence of contraband in regions in Ontario 18
Incidence of contraband Ontario regions n= 16,496 45 40 35 30 25 20 37 38 34 19 22 20 23 27 39 28 27 24 34 34 30 15 10 5 0 Brantford Cornwall Durham Region Hamilton Kitchener Waterloo London Ottawa Oxford Peel Region Simcoe Region Bruce Grey Toronto Windsor York Region Ontario Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Ontario 110 11,584 4,912 16,496 30 19
Ontario regions Trend in contraband incidence 2007-2009 n= 16,496 60 50 40 30 20 24 27 29 32 36 40 15 21 32 39 40 41 44 43 44 43 29 32 39 40 41 50 47 48 47 45 42 27 29 30 26 26 23 24 21 20 10 0 Whitby Oshawa Ajax Pickering Mississauga Brampton Scarborough Newmarket Aurora Markham Thornhill Ontario 2007 2008 2009 Incidence in Ontario Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Ontario 110 11,584 4,912 16,496 30 20
Incidence of contraband Brantford and Cornwall n= 1,998 41 40 40 39 38 37 37 37 37 38 36 35 Brant Haldimand Norfolk Stormont Dundas South Glengarry Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Brantford 6 653 387 1041 37 Cornwall 5 590 367 957 38 21
Incidence of contraband Durham Region n= 1,820 45 40 40 41 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 29 29 32 0 Whitby Durham Oshawa Ajax Pickering Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 11 1201 619 1820 34 22
Incidence of contraband Hamilton Region n=914 30 25 20 26 20 23 15 15 15 10 5 0 Niagara West Glanbrook Hamilton Centre Hamilton East Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 8 739 175 914 19 23
Incidence of contraband Kitchener-Waterloo and London n= 1,496 30 28 25 20 21 17 19 22 19 15 14 10 5 0 Kitchener Centre Kitchener Waterloo Kitchener Conestoga Cambridge London West London North London Fanshawe Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Kitchener-Waterloo 7 693 197 890 22 London 6 482 124 606 20 24
Incidence of contraband Ottawa n= 1,520 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 20 Ottawa West Nepean Ottawa South Ottawa Vanier Ottawa Orleans Ottawa Centre Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 11 1171 349 1520 23 25
Incidence of contraband Peel Region n= 1,537 50 45 44 43 40 37 35 30 25 30 26 20 15 10 5 0 Mississauga Erindale Mississauga Brampton South Mississauga East Cooksville Brampton Springdale Brampton West Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 9 942 595 1537 39 26
Incidence of contraband Simcoe Region, Grey-Bruce and Oxford n= 1,432 30 29 28 27 27 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 Oxford Barrie Owen Sound Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal Simcoe (Barrie) 4 396 152 548 28 Grey-Bruce(Owen Sound) 2 211 79 290 27 Oxford 4 431 163 594 27 27
45 40 35 30 Incidence of contraband Toronto 41 30 n= 2,591 25 20 15 17 18 16 20 19 15 20 20 17 10 5 0 Etobicoke Lakeshore Scarborough Guildwood Toronto Centre Don Valley East Etobicoke Centre Pickering - Scarborough Scarborough Centre Don Valley West Scarborough Rouge River St. Pauls Etobicoke North Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 19 1965 626 2591 24 28
Incidence of contraband Windsor n= 1,372 36 35 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 33 32 Windsor Tecumseth Windsor West Essex Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 7 906 466 1372 34 29
Incidence of contraband York Region n= 1,805 60 50 48 40 42 30 26 29 20 20 10 0 York Simcoe Newmarket Aurora Markham Thornhill Sites Legal count Illegal count Total count % Illegal 11 1194 611 1805 34 30
9. Appendix 1. Samples of collection sites 2. Samples of cigarette butts 3. Sample collection schedule in Ontario 31
Samples of collection sites 32
Samples of cigarette butts Samples of cigarette butts collected from locations in Quebec and Ontario. 33
Sample collection schedule in Ontario Electoral District / Riding Sites Collection Electoral District / Riding Sites Collection Brant 4 Week 3, May Oxford 4 Haldimand Norfolk 2 Week 3, May Mississauga Erindale 3 Week 3, May Stormont 2 Week 3, May Mississauga Brampton South 1 Week 3, May Dundas 1 Week 3, May Mississauga East Cooksville 1 Week 3, May South Glengarry 2 Week 3, May Brampton Springdale 2 Week 3, May Whitby 4 Week 2, May Brampton West 2 Week 3, May Durham 2 Week 2, May Barrie 4 Week 4, May Oshawa 3 Week 2, May Owen Sound 2 Week 4, April Ajax 1 Week 2, May Etobicoke Lakeshore 2 Week 4, April Pickering 1 Week 2, May Scarborough Guildwood 2 Week 4, April Niagara 2 Week 1, June Toronto Centre 2 Week 4, April West Glanbrook 1 Week 1, June Don Valley East 2 Week 4, April Hamilton Centre 3 Week 1, June Etobicoke Centre 2 Week 4, April Hamilton East Stoney Creek 1 Week 1, June Pickering -Scarborough 3 Week 4, April Hamilton Mountain 1 Week 1, June Scarborough Centre 2 Week 4, April Kitchener Centre 2 Week 1, June Don Valley West 1 Week 4, April Kitchener Waterloo 2 Week 1, June Scarborough Rouge River 1 Week 4, April Kitchener Conestoga 2 Week 1, June St. Pauls 1 Week 4, May Cambridge 1 Week 1, June Etobicoke North 1 Week 4, May London West 2 Week 1, June Windsor Tecumseth 3 Week 4, May London North 2 Week 1, June Windsor West 2 Week 4, May London Fanshawe 2 Week 1, June Essex 2 Week 4, May Ottawa West Nepean 3 Week 1, May York Simcoe 4 Week 4, May Ottawa South 3 Week 1, May Newmarket 2 Week 4, May Ottawa Vanier 2 Week 1, May Aurora 2 Week 4, May Ottawa Orleans 2 Week 1, May Markham 1 Week 4, May Ottawa Centre 1 Week 1, May Thornhill 2 Week 4, May 34
Canadian Convenience Stores Association Youth Contraband Tobacco Study, 2009 Canadian Convenience Stores Association 466 Speers Road, Suite 217 Oakville ON Canada L6K 3W9 Phone -(905) 845-9152 Fax -(905) 849-9947 35