Drugs and violence Dr. Angela Me Chief Research UNODC
Summary Is there a link between drugs and violence? Yes, but there is not a binary and causal relationship. Drugs may not be associated to violence and violence may not be associated to drugs. Drugs can be the result or the enabler of violence Solving the problem of violence helps to address the drug problem? Yes, but not always De-regulating drugs solve the problem of violence? To be tested, but some evidence and reasoning point to a No.
Links between drug production/drug trafficking and violence
Illegal armed groups and coca cultivation in Colombia, 2009 Municipalities and presence of illegal armed groups Coca areas: 63% illegal armed groups Noncoca areas: 21% illegal armed groups
hectares number of persons Illegal armed groups and coca cultivation in Colombia, 1996-2008 160,000 40,000 33,800 120,000 28,100 30,000 80,000 20,000 14,000 13,200 40,000 10,000-1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 - Coca surface Size of illegal armed groups (enrolment) Sources: UNODC/SIMCI and National Police & Ministry of Defense.
Homicide rates in Colombia by type of municipality, 1990-2008 Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Hectares Number Peru: coca cultivation and terrorist incidents 140,000 2,979 2,689 3,500 120,000 3,000 2,394 789 100,000 2,500 80,000 2,000 60,000 1,500 185 355 40,000 1,000 20,000 500 0 0 Area under coca cultivation Terrorist incidents Source: DEVIDA, Cocaine production Monitoring in the Andean region, Lima, July 2004; updated with UNODC cultivation data until 2007
Opium poppy cultivation and security incidents, 2011
Important to note that violence can be an outcome or an enabler for drug production
Violence/insecurity is not the only factor related to drug cultivation
Link between underdevelopment and opium cultivation in Afghanistan
Drug trafficking has generated violence
Homicide rates at subnational level, Central America 2005 and 2010
Homicide rates by municipal areas in northern Central America, 2011
Main areas of influence of Mexican drug cartels, 2009/2010 Source: Economist, August 12, 2010
But not all violence in Central America has been generated by drug trafficking
Tons of Cocaine transiting countries in Central America and Homicide rate, 2010 350 90 300 80 70 250 60 200 150 50 40 Cocaine transiting Homicide rate 100 50 30 20 10 0 Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Costa Rica Panama Belize El Salvador 0
Share of cocaine Share of Cocaine Flowing to the United States by Transport Corridors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11 3 1 2 1 1 10 12 33 26 27 22 30 43 90 88 59 66 72 72 77 54 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Central America/Mexico Caribbean Direct Source: U.S. National Drug Intelligence Center, various years.
Homicide rate in Guyana and Jamaica
Increase in violence has been associated with changes in drug trafficking (both increases and decreases) Destabilization of illicit markets produces violence (between organized criminal groups and/or between criminal organizations and governmental institutions)
A reflection of shrinking cocaine market in the US (a result of disruption of trafficking in Mexico?)
tons Seizures of cocaine (incl. paste and base), 1985-2012 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 West & Central Europe North America Central America Other regions Source: UNODC, Annual Report Questionnaire Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Other Europe Caribbean South America Trend (3 years average, smoothed)
Homicide rates, by subregion, 2008-2012 Note: Number of countries is denoted in brackets. Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.
The absence of violence doesn t automatically reflect absence of drug trafficking. It can be a reflection of an established high level trafficking (pax mafiosa)
Drug trafficking and violence 1.6 1.1 9.2 4.7 21.5 54 (Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras) 20 (excl. Cuba) _ 30.8 9.6 53.7 12.6 10.4 14.6 12.1 31 Global homicide rate in 2012: 6.1 per 100,000 inhabitants: Sources: UNODC, The Globalization of Crime A Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment, June 2010 and UNODC, Homicide Report 2014. - 28 -
Seizures* of cocaine, 2012 (tons) * Seizures of more than 10 kg
Organized crime/gang-related homicides out of total homicides (2011 or latest year available) Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.
Rates of organized crime/gang-related homicides, selected countries in Central America and the Caribbean, 2005-2011 Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.
Drugs is only one of the illicit markets managed by the OC cartels in Central America and cartels have proven to adopt very quickly to the changing environment switching quickly to different markets if one proves to be less profitable or problematic Eliminating drug trafficking doesn t resolve the problem of OC and violence
Illicit mining in San Gaban, Peru 2013 Illicit mining in San Gaban, Peru 2005
OC operates where there are regulated markets. Their profits come from: Offering products which are not allowed by regulations (drugs, arms, protected species) Offering cheaper products or services which would be more expensive if produced/ managed according to regulations (counterfeited products, waste management) Controlling the territory (extortions)
Value of illicit markets in Europe
As long as global societies set up standards requiring regulations there are potential markets for OC OC can bring violence or can operate in peace so the objective should be clear: peace at all costs (pax mafiosa)? The problem of OC and its associated violence can be solved only if the conditions of OC vulnerability affecting communities are addressed. There are no short-cuts
Each community affected by OC has its own combination of opportunities and vulnerabilities Socio-economic vulnerabilities Infrastructures Education Poverty Employment opportunities Governance Weak presence of institutions insecurity Weak Rule of Law
Drugs are only one of the many opportunities..
Alternative Development to address vulnerabilities and opportunities to OC
The final objective is not the PAX Mafiosa but the PAX Development
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 hectares Coca cultivation, 1990-2013 250 000 211 700 221 300 200 000 181 600 163 300 150 000 100 000 121 300 99 000 154 200 153 700 133 700 120 800 62 500 60 400 50 000 50 300 43 400 49 800 48 000 48 000 0 40 100 14 600 31 000 25 300 23 000 Colombia Peru Bolivia Global Source: UNODC, 2014 World Drug Report, June 2014 and UNODC, Coca Surveys - Colombia, Peru and Bolivia.
Homicide rates in selected countries of the Americas, (1995-2012, three-year moving average) Source: UNODC, Global Study on Homicide, 2013.
Results from alternative development interventions measured in terms of the consolidation index in Colombia, 2011-2013
Do all persons arrested for violations of the drug law go to prison?
30 000 Reported violations, convictions and prison sentences in 2013 in relation to the Austrian Narcotics Act 100% 25 000 28 227 100% 26 071 reported violations of the Narcotics Law ("arrests") diversions all convictions against the Narcotics Law 20 000 15 000 14 147 convictions against the Narcotics Act (main item) custodial sentences (prison sentences) suspended sentences therapy 10 000 5 000-26% 7 368 15% 4 252 6.5% 1 837 1 335 728 352 11% 2 933 2-5% Total (drug related) Misdemeanours (mostly possession of drugs) Crimes (mostly drug trafficking and illegal production) other 100% 2 156 60% 1 289 Sources: Austrian Ministry of Justice, Sicherheitsbericht 2013 and Ministry of Interior, Drug related Crime, Situation Report 2013.
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