The predominance of female deficiency has been a

a case study International Journal of Commerce and Business Management ; Vol. 4 Issue 1 (April, 2011) : 155-162 A critical analysis of sex ratio in n scenario with special reference to Orissa Received : October, 2010; Accepted : January, 2011 ABSTRACT In, the demographic imbalances are growing at a faster rate than the other country. The declining trend in the juvenile sex ratio raise questions about the presumed interlink between development and women s empowerment. Improvement in health, education and higher work force participation of women has no impact in translating into a higher value for girl children and women. This simply raises a finger towards gender distribution of prosperity and the gender balance in empowerment flowing from prosperity. In this attempt has been made to answer the question raised above by analyzing the various factors responsible for this problem separately. Das, Manjula, Jha, Dilip Kumar and Mohanty, Anouja (2011). A critical analysis of sex ratio in n scenario with special reference to Orissa. Internat. J. Com. & Bus. Manage, 4(1): 155-162. Key words : Sex ratio, Declining trend, Factors responsible The predominance of female deficiency has been a striking feature of our population throughout the whole of the regular census history. The census figures indicate that there has been a steady fall in the proportion of females in the entire successive census except a small rise in 1951, 1971 and 2001 census. Further it also indicates that while the females outnumber males in Kerala, in the states like Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Delhi, it has been constantly low. The states like Orissa, Manipur, Tamil Nadu and Mizoram have much lower sex ratio after 1981. The higher sex ratio in southern states and lower in case of northern states has been an enduring feature of the social life of our people for an indefinitely long time. The recent demographic trend (2001 census) while shows slight increase in sex ratio from 927 to 933 at the same time it also highlights the worrisome decline in the juvenile sex ratio(0-6 years) in several states. The overall juvenile sex ratio dropped from 945 to 933 in between 1991 and 2001. Urban areas, which tend to be characterized by higher per capita income and higher literacy rates revealed the worst sex ratios. At the all- level there has been continuous declining of sex ratio (FMR) i.e. number of females per Correspondence to: DILIP KUMAR JHA, Department of Economics, Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya,BILASPUR (C.G.) INDIA Authors affiliations: MANJULA DAS, ITER, S O A University, BHUBNESHWAR (ORISSA) INDIA ANOUJA MOHANTY, Department of Management, F.M. University, BALASORE (ORISSA). INDIA thousand males since 1901, except some marginal increase in 1951 and 1981.In 2001 the FMR has slightly improved to the extent of 933. The reasons put forward for the declining sex ratios are Differential mortality rates, Discrimination against female children leading to female mortality, Sex selective abortions and infanticides, Unequal access for women to life sustaining inputs like food, nutrition and health, leading again to differential mortality, Depleting and degrading status of women in some societies because of social and cultural factors and violation of human rights. Declining trend in sex ratio (FMR) in as well as in Orissa has been a matter of serious concern for the last few decades, although the state s figure is better than that of. Juvenile sex ratio also shows a similar trend as already studied by Agnihotri (2000 and 2002). For the improvement of sex ratio, various rules and steps are being taken by the Governments both at the state and national levels. In this context, the present paper makes an attempt to find out possible association of sex ratio (over all) with factors such as child sex ratio, work participation rate, literacy rate, differential mortality rate and human development index. Further, a longitudinal study of sex ratio of the State of Orissa and also the country as a whole has been undertaken. In the study of sex ratios in the country, it is sometimes hypothesized that there is a link between HIND INSTITUTE OF COMMERCE AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

156 female work and female worth. Higher participation in economic activities enhances the status of women ensuring their more equitable access to basic survival inputs. Low participation affects this access adversely resulting in more masculine sex ratio than usual. Longitudinal study of sex ratio: The sex ratio at birth (Table 1) and in the age group (0-4) years (Table 2) showed that number of males significantly increased with respect to time ( p<0.01). The linear trend line for sex ratio at birth was computed as: Table 1 : Proportion of males to females at birth of Sr. No. Period (t) Males per hundred females (U t ) 1. 1981-83 109 2. 1982-84 110 3. 1983-85 110 4. 1984-86 110 5. 1985-87 110 6. 1986-88 110 7. 1987-89 110 8. 1988-90 110 9. 1989-91 110 10. 1990-92 111 11. 1991-93 112 12. 1992-94 111 13. 1993-95 111 14. 1998-00 111 Source: Office of Registrar General, Population Census Reports (SRS). Table 2 : Proportion of males to females in the age group (0-4) years for Period (t) Males per hundred females (U t) 1. 1951 102 2. 1961 101 3. 1971 102 4. 1981 102 5. 1991 105 6. 2001 107 U t = 109.286 + 0.143 x t; R 2 =0.644 ( highly significant, P < 0.01). Similarly for the age group of (0-4) years, U t = 99.467+1.057 x t, R 2 =0.729 (P=.031) At all- level it was observed that the sex ratio at birth for the period between 1981-83 to 1998-2000 showed that male children outnumber the females, justifying perhaps biological propensity of n women to give birth to more male children (Fig. 1). This masculinization of sex ratio is also revealed in sex ratio of 0 4 years of aged children in the country during 1951-2001 (Table 2 and Fig. 2). MALES PER 100 FEMALES Fig. 1 : 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 99 98 112 111.5 111 110.5 110 109.5 109 108.5 108 107.5 1981-83 1982-84 1983-85 1984-86 1985-87 1986-88 1987-89 1988-90 1989-91 1990-92 1991-93 1992-94 1993-95 1998-2000 Males per 100 females at birth of (1981-83 to 1988-2000) 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Fig. 2 : Males per 100 females (0-4) years age group Orissa/ Factors affecting sex ratio: It is hypothesized that over all sex ratio is likely to be affected by factors such as child sex ratio, differential mortality rate (DMR), literacy rate (LR), female labour participation rate (FLPR) and human development index (HDI). Taking into account, different indicators of 15 major states of the country, we find FMR(Y) = 777.211 + 2.411 x LR (X 1 ); with R 2 = 0.238 ; FMR(Y) = 905.628+ 34.933 x DMR(X 2 ); with

R 2 = 0.338; (P=0.023) FMR(Y) = 936.857 + 2.63 x 10-2 FLPR(X 3 ); with R 2 = 0.000 ; FMR(Y) = 317.605 + 0.674 x FMR (0 6) (X 4 ); with R 2 = 0.515; (P=0.003) FMR (Y) = 831.951 + 228.008 x HDI (X 5 ); with R 2 = 0.125. ( Significant at 5% level, - Highly significant (P<0.01)) The linear correlation coefficient between sex ratio (FMR) and female FLPR and between FMR and HDI were found to be low and not significant where as the regression coefficient of FMR with differential mortality rate (DMR) and with FMR (0-6) were found to be significant. The correlation between sex ratio and literacy rate was also not significant although positive. Thus, the plausible argument put forward in support of literacy and female labour participation may be that it takes relatively longer period till the level of literacy and female labour participation favourably affects the FMRs (Table 3). Note: The FMR (0 6) years of age group is also not significantly associated with literacy rate and FLPR as evident from the following regression equations. FMR 0 6 = 936.575 0.256 x LR; R 2 = 0.002; (not significant) FMR 0 6 = 914.570 + 0.195 x FLPR; R 2 = 0.001; AN ANALYSIS OF SEX RATIO IN INDIAN SCENARIO Table 3 : Different indicators of some major States of, 2001 FMR Death rate Sr. Literacy States (Sex No. rate Male Female Diff. ratio) Female labour participation (FLP) Sex ratio (0 6 years) 157 Comparison between rural and urban sex ratio: A comparison between rural and urban FMR of Orissa and (1901-2001) showed that rural FMR has always been higher than urban FMR in the State as well as in (Table 4 and Fig. 3). However, urban Orissa has lower FMR than urban during 1961-2001. The linear trend in sex ratios over the years (1901-2001) is shown by the following regression equations: Orissa : ) = 1084.509 9.009 x t;r 2 = 0.7204; (P=0.001) ) = 965.8727 11.4636 x t; R 2 = 0.5508; (P=0.009) : ) = 982.7817 3.6909 x t; R 2 = 0.904; (P=0.000) ) = 856.2182 + 1.7364 x t; R 2 = 0.0472 On considering the sex ratio of above data (Table 4) from 1961 to 2001 (i.e. after independence) the following linear trends equation were found. Orissa : ) = 1005.1 7.5 x t; R 2 = 0.911 ; (P=0.012) Human development index (HDI) 1. Andhra Pradesh 978 60.5 9.0 7.1 1.9 35.11 961 0.416 2. Assam 932 63.3 10.0 8.4 1.6 20.71 965 0.386 3. Bihar 921 47.0 7.6 8.3-0.7 18.84 942 0.367 4. Gujarat 921 69.1 8.3 7.0 1.3 27.91 883 0.479 5. Haryana 861 67.9 7.3 6.8 0.5 27.22 813 0.509 6. Karnataka 964 66.6 8.1 6.4 1.7 31.98 946 0.478 7. Kerala 1058 90.9 7.5 5.3 2.2 15.38 960 0.638 8. Madhya Pradesh 920 63.7 9.9 9.7 0.2 33.21 932 0.394 9. Maharashtra 922 76.9 7.7 9.4 0.9 30.81 913 0.523 10. Orissa 972 63.1 10.3 9.4 0.9 24.66 953 0.404 11. Punjab 874 69.7 7.7 6.4 1.3 19.05 798 0.537 12. Rajasthan 922 60.4 7.9 7.4 0.5 33.49 909 0.424 13. Tamil Nadu 986 73.5 8.3 7.1 1.2 31.54 942 0.531 14. Uttar Pradesh 898 56.3 9.6 9.9-0.3 16.54 916 0.388 15. West Bengal 934 68.6 7.0 6.5 0.5 18.32 960 0.472 Economic Survey of, 2001

158 Table 4 : Rural- urban sex ratio of Orissa/ Orissa Year Rural Urban Rural Urban 1901 1039 967 979 910 1911 1058 947 975 872 1921 1089 963 970 846 1931 1071 924 966 838 1941 1058 914 965 831 1951 1029 881 965 860 1961 1015 807 963 845 1971 1002 845 949 858 1981 999 859 951 879 1991 988 866 938 894 2001 987 895 946 900 Source: Census, 2001 SEX RATIO 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 ) = 1019.2 7.0 x t; R 2 = 0.930 ; (P=0.008) ) = 795.3 + 19.7 x t; R 2 = 0.938 ; (P=0.007) : ) = 938.7 1.9 x t R 2 =0.328 1991 2001 Orissa(Rural) Orissa(Urban) (Rural) (Urban) Fig. 3 : Rural urban sex ratio of Orissa/ ) = 962.9 4.5 x t; R 2 =0.615 ) = 831.4 + 14.6 x t. R 2 =0.973 (P=0.002) ( Significant at 1% level) The linear trends of sex ratios of Orissa were statistically significant during 1961-2001. The increasing trend of sex ratios in urban is supposed to be affected by migration or urban awareness. Residence-wise sex ratio for different castle grousp: Scheduled castes (Orissa) (Table 5 and Fig. 4): ) = 1017 9 x t; R 2 = 0.823; (P=.033) ) = 1021.1 8.900 x t; R 2 = 0.814 ; (P=.036) ) = 938.9 + 1.5 x t; R 2 = 0.042; SEX RATIO 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Rural Orissa Orissa Urban Orissa Orissa Rural Urban india Fig. 4 : SC sex ratio rural-urban of Orissa/ Table 5 : Sex ratio of scheduled castes Orissa Census Year Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total 1961 1020 930 1015 966 883 957 1971 996 955 993 943 882 935 1981 992 951 988 940 892 932 1991 981 932 975 926 905 922 2001 983 949 979 939 923 936 Source: Census of, 2001

Scheduled castes () : (Table 5 and Fig. 4) ) = 952.9 5.5 x t; R 2 =0.463; ) = 964.1 7.1 x t; R 2 =0.598; ) = 866.1 + 10.3 x t; R 2 = 0.895; (P=.015) ( Significant at 5% level) Scheduled tribes (Orissa): (Table 6 and Fig. 5) ) = 1017.3 3.1 x t; R 2 =0.677; ) = 1018.9 2.7 x t; R 2 = 0.614; ) = 953.0 2.4 x t; R 2 = 0.142; Table 6 : Sex ratio of scheduled tribes Census Orissa Year Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total 1961 1018 946 1016 989 897 987 1971 1009 958 1007 985 896 982 1981 1015 947 1012 988 912 983 1991 1006 930 1002 976 920 972 2001 1006 948 1003 981 944 978 Source: Census of, 2001 SEX RATIO 1040 1000 960 920 880 840 800 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Rural Orissa Urban Orissa Rural Urban Fig. 5 : ST sex ratio for rural-urban of Orissa/ AN ANALYSIS OF SEX RATIO IN INDIAN SCENARIO ) = 991.3 2.5 x t; R 2 =0.544 ) = 878.4 + 11.8 x t; R 2 = 0.897 (significant) (P=.015) 159 Other caste (Orissa): (Table 7 and Fig. 6) ) = 996.2 8.2 x t ; R 2 = 0.920 ; (P=0.01) ) = 1018.9 8.3 x t ; R 2 = 0.965 ; (P=0.003) ) = 763.8 + 23.2 x t ; R 2 = 0.955 ; (P=0.004) Other caste (): (Table 7 and Fig. 6) ) = 931.5 1.3 x t ; R 2 = 0.219; ) = 955.7 4.5 x t ;R 2 = 0.326; ) = 840.5 + 14.7 x t ; R 2 = 0.365;. Table 7 : Sex ratio for other castes Orissa Year Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total 1961 1013 779 991 960 841 934 1971 1000 821 979 946 855 924 1981 994 837 969 926 939 929 1991 983 849 959 937 892 923 2001 980 881 960 942 896 928 Source: Census of, 2001 SEX RATIO 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 Scheduled Tribes (): (Table 6 and Fig. 5) ) = 988.8 2.8 x t; R 2 =0.607 500 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Orissa(Rural) Orissa(Urban) (Rural) (Urban) Fig. 6 : Sex ratio for other caste (rural/urban) of Orissa/

160 As found from the regression equations, the sex ratio of the state of Orissa in case of ST community, the linear correlation coefficient was not significant, where as for SC community, it was negative and significant and in case of other castes, it was negative and highly significant. Urban sex ratio showed deviation from it, may be due to migration or urban awareness. Effect of literacy rate on sex ratio in Orissa: It is sometimes hypothesized that higher literacy rate encourages favourable sex ratio (FMR). The data for 30 districts (Table 8) show that FMR was inversely related to literacy rate as per 2001 census, which seems to be a disturbing sex ratio scenario in the state. The linear regression equations for the age group 0 6 years as well as the entire population were obtained as: For (0 6) years age group, sex ratio: FMR 2001 = 1029.221 1.232 x LR; R 2 = 0.708 ; (P=.000) For all age group, sex ratio: FMR 2001 = 1058.839 1.352 x LR; R 2 = 0.491 ; (P=.000). After independence, in 1951 census the male literacy rate in Orissa was as low as 27.23 and female literacy ratio was extremely low to the extent of 4.52. The difference in the literacy rate between males and females increased steadily till 1991 census and the gap reduced to 24.98 during 2001 census. Figure shows the slope of male literacy was higher than that of female implying a slower growth in case of female literacy. The increase in literacy rate has not helped the improvement in sex ratio and surprisingly declining sex ratio was observed. A Table 8 : District-wise sex ratio in rural and urban areas of Orissa according to census 1991-2001 Sr. 1991 2001 District No. Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Literacy rate 1. Angul 963 794 942 958 845 941 69.4 2. Balasore 962 895 955 957 920 953 70.94 3. Bargarh 984 921 979 979 935 976 64.13 4. Bhadrak 995 905 985 979 934 974 74.64 5. Bolangir 989 910 981 991 934 984 54.93 6. Boudh 989 939 987 987 937 984 58.43 7. Cuttack 960 806 922 964 874 938 76.13 8. Deogarh 990 887 982 986 911 980 60.78 9. Dhenkanal 962 868 954 967 899 961 70.11 10. Gajapati 1032 982 1027 1036 991 1031 41.73 11. Ganjam 1018 972 1006 1011 939 998 62.94 12. Jagatsinghpur 997 772 977 984 787 963 79.61 13. Jajpur 982 879 977 975 905 972 72.19 14. Jharsuguda 978 870 938 975 898 946 71.47 15. Kalahandi 1006 918 999 1007 930 1001 46.20 16. Kandhamal 1008 878 999 1014 928 1008 52.95 17. Kendrapara 1011 937 1007 1018 948 1014 77.33 18. Keonjhar 990 868 974 988 909 977 59.75 19. Khurda 973 782 903 972 817 902 80.19 20. Koraput 1003 934 991 1009 950 999 36.20 21. Malkangiri 990 928 985 1002 935 997 31.26 22. Mayurbhanj 987 872 979 986 895 980 52.43 23. Nabarangpur 989 973 989 995 928 991 34.26 24. Nayagarh 961 889 958 939 912 938 71.02 25. Nuapada 1005 953 1002 1009 970 1007 42.29 26. Puri 981 893 970 976 921 968 78.40 27. Rayagada 1020 955 1012 1038 968 1028 35.61 28. Sambalpur 981 887 956 987 923 969 67.01 29. Sonepur 983 930 979 969 927 966 64.07 30. Sundergarh 987 842 936 994 889 957 65.22 Source: Census of, 2001

disturbing feature arised due to the fact that FMR was negatively correlated with literacy rate, which was highly significant as shown by the regression equations. In all contexts, FMR was positively correlated with literacy rate (LR) although, the regression was not significant. Human development index and sex ratio in Orissa: It may be of interest to study whether the level of human development is associated with the level of sex ratio across 30 districts of Orissa (Table 9). Simple linear regression analysis with FMR (2001) as the dependant variable and HDI/GDI as independent variable gave the following regression equations: For age group 0 6 years: FMR 0 6 = 1024.584 123.410 x HDI; R 2 = 0.307; AN ANALYSIS OF SEX RATIO IN INDIAN SCENARIO (P=0.002) FMR 0 6 = 984.689 58.140 x GDI; R 2 = 0.057; (Not significant) 161 For all age groups: FMR = 1093.036 204.447 x HDI, R 2 = 0.485 ; (P=0.000) FMR = 1066.619 176.316 x GDI, R 2 = 0.305 ; (P=0.002) ( - Highly Significant, p< 0.01) Following the criteria of UNDP for categorization of districts into high, medium and low human development, as per HDI 0.79 and above, HDI was observed between 0.50 to 0.78 and HDI between 0 to 0.499, respectively it was found that no district has HDI equal to 0.79 or above. The districts having low HDI are given in Table 10. Table 9 : Human development index and gender development index for district of Orissa Sr. Health Income index Overall HDI value HDI rank GDI value RDI rank District No. index literacy index 1. Angul 0.481 0.748 0.694 0.663 6 0.637 4 2. Balasore 0.442 0.466 0.709 0.559 18 0.519 14 3. Bargarh 0.449 0.517 0.641 0.565 17 0.528 13 4. Bhadrak 0.673 0.463 0.746 0.646 8 0.497 21 5. Bolangir 0.468 0.504 0.549 0.546 21 0.518 16 6. Boudh 0.423 0.497 0.584 0.536 23 0.509 19 7. Cuttack 0.686 0.587 0.761 0.695 3 0.618 7 8. Deogarh 0.776 0.532 0.608 0.669 5 0.647 3 9. Dhenkanal 0.468 0.534 0.701 0.591 12 0.531 12 10. Gajapati 0.173 0.558 0.417 0.431 28 0.401 27 11. Ganjam 0.404 0.532 0.629 0.551 20 0.518 15 12. Jagatsinghpur 0.288 0.549 0.796 0.557 19 0.491 22 13. Jajpur 0.333 0.499 0.722 0.540 22 0.386 28 14. Jharsuguda 0.635 0.757 0.715 0.722 2 0.687 1 15. Kalahandi 0.763 0.471 0.462 0.606 11 0.579 8 16. Kandhamal 0.006 0.516 0.530 0.389 29 0.372 29 17. Kendrapara 0.596 0.466 0.773 0.626 10 0.516 18 18. Keonjhar 0.340 0.547 0.598 0.530 24 0.504 20 19. Khurda 0.724 0.639 0.802 0.736 1 0.632 5 20. Koraput 0.218 0.539 0.362 0.431 27 0.415 26 21. Malkangiri 0.122 0.497 0.313 0.370 30 0.362 30 22. Mayurbhanj 0.782 0.489 0.524 0.639 9 0.621 6 23. Nabarangpur 0.340 0.453 0.343 0.436 26 0.422 25 24. Nayagarh 0.462 0.485 0.710 0.571 15 0.452 23 25. Nuapada 0.692 0.470 0.423 0.518 14 0.561 9 26. Puri 0.622 0.527 0.784 0.657 7 0.516 17 27. Rayagada 0.250 0.547 0.356 0.443 25 0.428 24 28. Sambalpur 0.436 0.590 0.670 0.589 13 0.560 10 29. Sonepur 0.474 0.492 0.641 0.566 16 0.543 11 30. Sundergarh 0.692 0.618 0.652 0.683 4 0.659 2 Orissa 0.468 0.545 0.636 0.579 0.546 Source : Orissa Human Development Report, 2004.

162 Table 10 : Districts of Orissa with low HDI and GDI, as per 2001 Sr. Sex ratio, District HDI GDI No 2001 1. Rayagada 0.443 1028 0.428 2. Nabarangpur 0.436 991 0.422 3. Koraput 0.431 999 0.415 4. Gajapati 0.431 1031 0.401 5. Kandhamal 0.389 1008 0.372 6. Malkangiri 0.370 997 0.362 Source : Orissa Human Development Report, 2004. The difference between HDI and GDI values is a sensitive indicator of basic gender inequality. The difference was relatively more pronounced in case of coastal districts compared to the districts known to be backward in terms of conventional indicators of development. However, the square of the rank correlation coefficient between HDI and GDI was (0.8483) 2 = 0.7196, showing thereby moderate gender disparity among the districts of the state. It was important to note here that the six tribal dominated and least developed districts like Rayagada, Koraput, Nabarangpur, Gajapati, Kandhamal and Malkangiri with less gender inequality have favourable sex ratio. This lead to empirically confirming the disturbing hypothesis that the prosperity leads to decrease in sex ratio. Conclusion: The longitudinal study of the data of showed Agnihotri, S.B. (2000). Sex ratio patterns in, Sage Publication, New Delhi. REFERENCES increasing trend in favour of male child in case of both sex ratios at birth and in the age group (0-4) years. The data relating to 15 major states of revealed that child sex ratio (0-6 years) and DMR was positively correlated to the overall sex ratio, which was significant where as literacy rate, FLPR and HDI having positive correlation with FMR and were not significant. Taking into consideration the data from 1961 to 2001, it was found that while the total FMR and rural FMR showed a significantly declining trend for the state of Orissa and a declining trend in context, the urban FMR has an increasing trend. This might be due to urban awareness or migration. The FMR for ST community was higher than that for SC people and in turn SC FMR was higher than that for other caste s people. The longitudinal analysis of sex ratios of Orissa according to SC, ST and other castes revealed a declining trend but it was not significant in case of ST community, whereas, it was significant in case of SC community and highly significant in case of other castes, who are supposed to be more educated and developed. The most shocking fact was that in Orissa context the literacy rate was negatively correlated to FMR which was significant, where as it was positive in case of although not significant. This contradicts the assumption that education and awareness balances the FMR. The factors such as HDI and GDI both were found to be negatively correlated to FMR which was significant. Agnihotri, S.B., Changes in Sex Ratio Patterns in Orissa (2002). Is there an Epi-centre of female deficit, Demography, 31 (2) : 179-194.