SOLO: Radiation Risk Research in the Southern Urals

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1 SOLO: Radiation Risk Research in the Southern Urals Presentation to at the DoReMi 2nd Periodic meeting 22 nd January 2012 Richard Haylock John Harrison

2 SOLO Epidemiological Studies of Exposed Southern Urals Populations Four year EC 7 th Framework project for DG Research Euratom: Started March 2010 now extended to end of February 2015 Project Office Project Coordinator : John Harrison Scientific Secretary : Richard Haylock Administrative Manager : Svetlana Carr Scientific Advisory Board Lynn Anspaugh (Chair), Dale Preston, Christian Streffer

3 SOLO partner organisations Health Protection Agency - HPA (UK) Southern Urals Biophysics Institute SUBI (RF) Urals Research Centre Radiation Medicine URCRM (RF), International Agency for Research on Cancer IARC (F), Helmholtz Zentrum München HGMU (D), Instituto Superiore di Sanita - ISS (I) Leiden University Medical Centre LUMC (NL), University of Florida UF (USA) University of Manchester UNIMAN (UK)

4 Organisational change On 1 st April 2013 HPA is abolished Functions will be taken over by Public Health England PHE will be an executive agency of the Department of Health Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards Will be lifted and shifted into the new organisation - John Harrison to be new director

5 The aims of SOLO To increase knowledge about radiation risks at low doses of specific cancers of non-cancer diseases from plutonium exposure from in utero exposure Using two exposed populations in the Southern Urals of the Russian Federation related to Mayak PA (and plutonium exposed Sellafield workers)

6 Background to Southern Urals Research Mayak Production Association : opened in 1948 to produce weapons grade 239 Pu. Workers housed in a closed city called Ozyorsk Main plants: Reactors Protracted external gamma radiation exposures Radiochemical plant Protracted external gamma radiation exposures Inhaled intakes of 239 Pu compounds Plutonium plant Protracted external gamma radiation exposures Inhaled intakes of 239 Pu compounds

7 Main Consequences of Mayak Operations Large scale over-exposure of workers in the early years Some workers had cumulative external doses > 1 Gy Some workers also had high intakes of plutonium Irradiation of the local Techa river population from discharges Doses were generally lower than those to Mayak workers, but were to persons of all ages Many residents had intakes of strontium as well as external exposures Irradiation of Mayak workers and local population as a result of the Kyshtim accident in 1957

8 Why do we want to study them? Workers lived in closed city of Ozyorsk stable population Contemporary external dose records available + some internal Smoking and alcohol data collected for workers at regular medicals even for retired workers A cohort of 22,000 Mayak workers Ozyorsk children s registry ~ 90,000 (8,000 to female workers) A cohort of 30,000 residents living near the Techa river Cohort of 43,000 offspring of the Techa river cohort

9 SP 1: External Dosimetry Lead: Albrecht Weiser, HMGU Validation of external doses of: Mayak workers cohort MWDS-2008 dosimetry system Techa River cohorts TRDS-2009 dosimetry system Using: EPR: Electron Paramagnetic Resonance FISH: Fluorescence In Situ Hybridisation Luminescence measurements and dose reconstruction

10 SP1: External dosimetry Extra piece of work: What does FISH measure? Assumption: FISH dose = red bone marrow (RBM) dose Problem (SAB): Assumption not validated for internal exposures Eg Sr-90 in the Techa cohort Solution: Review origin, circulation and lifetime of lymphocyte subsets; localised delivery of dose Conclusion: FISH can be applied for detecting combined external gamma and internal doses from internally deposited Sr-90 (albeit with fairly large uncertainties) Paper in preparation by Liz Ainsbury

11 SP 2: Epidemiological Studies of Mayak Workers Lead: Tamara Azizova, SUBI Cancer and non-cancer mortality and incidence in the Mayak Worker cohort Tasks: A first analysis of lung liver and bone cancer incidence Further analyses of circulatory disease risks incidence and mortality using MWDS 2008 and with enlarged cohort and extended follow-up A first analysis of chronic respiratory disease

12 SP2: Epidemiological Studies of Mayak Workers : Progress to date A paper on lung liver and bone cancer incidence has been submitted for publication The feasibility to study chronic respiratory disease in Mayak workers has been established but only for disease incidence A first paper on chronic bronchitis using the cohort with MWDS2005 has been submitted for publication Work to extending previous analyses of ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease is in progress.

13 Cerebrovascular disease in Mayak workers Azizova et al ,763 workers: followed to 2005 using MWDS 2005 Cerebrovascular diseases: 7,326 cases and 1,495 deaths Analyses adjusted for non-radiation factors: hypertension, BMI, duration of employment, smoking, plant. Dose to liver used for internal risk calculations Incidence analysis: External dose ERR/Gy: (95% CI 0.324, 0.502) Internal dose ERR/Gy: (95% CI ) Mortality analysis: External dose ERR/Gy: ( ) Internal dose ERR/Gy: (-0.080,0.367)

14 Cerebrovascular disease in Mayak workers Azizova et al 2011

15 SP3: Pooled analysis of Sellafield and Mayak plutonium worker cohorts SP Lead : Richard Wakeford Preliminary pooled analysis of plutonium workers: Mayak cohort, follow-up to 2008 ~ 7k workers Sellafield cohort, follow-up to 2008 ~ 12k workers for leukaemia, lung cancer and circulatory diseases Preparatory work : Harmonisation of dosimetry : dose estimates and uncertainties Harmonisation of health data Permission of workforce representatives (Sellafield)

16 SP3: Pooled analysis of Sellafield and Mayak plutonium worker cohorts: Progress to date Problem early in project due to Westlakes Scientific Consulting became bankrupt which resulted in a loss of access to Sellafield data HPA now has a contract with the UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority to manage the ex-bnfl database Additional expertise from the University of Manchester has been secured to replace University of Central Lancashire (which owned Westlakes)

17 SP3: Pooled analysis of Sellafield and Mayak plutonium worker cohorts: Progress to date Work on a developing a common internal dosimetry methodology is nearing completion Checks on harmonisation of health data have started Outline permission of ex-bnfl Cohort Governance Group has been secured Additional time now agreed to complete the work to March 2015

18 SP 4: A pooled study of cancer following in utero irradiation Lead: Alexander Akleyev, URCRM Cancer risk (mortality and incidence) to offspring following exposure of mothers during pregnancy : Extended Techa River Offspring Cohort (11,500 subjects) Mayak in utero cohort (8000 subjects) Preliminary work includes : extension of Techa cohort follow-up from 2006 to 2009 analysis of statistical power - completed calculation of foetal doses including updated biokinetic and dosimetric models - ongoing

19 Project details The next project meeting will be held at the European Commission 4 th 7 th March 2013 More details can be found on our website;

SOUTHERN URALS RADIATION RISK RESEARCH

SOUTHERN URALS RADIATION RISK RESEARCH General objectives of the project The main goal is to derive credible, quantitative estimates of the longterm risks of adverse health effects from protracted internal