The potential for vector borne infections in the Nordic area now and in the future

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1 Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 30, 2019 The potential for vector borne infections in the Nordic area now and in the future Bødker, Rene; Cuellar, Ana Carolina; Haider, Nalmul Publication date: 2016 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): Bødker, R. (Author), Cuellar, A. C. (Author), & Haider, N. (Author). (2016). The potential for vector borne infections in the Nordic area now and in the future. Sound/Visual production (digital), Technical University of Denmark (DTU). General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

2 The potential for vector borne infections in the Nordic area now and in the future René Bødker & Ana Carolina Cuellar Nalmul Haider DTU National Veterinary Institute Workshop on mosquitoes and biting midges Trondheim June 2016

3 Weekly vector data are freely available on the internet Weekly surveillance: Mosquitoes at 5 sites Biting midges at 4 sites Supplemented by additional surveys

4 5 Fuglemyg 8 Husmyg Myggestik per døgn Myggestik per døgn Fuglemyg kalender Fuglemyg 2011 Fuglemyg 2012 Fuglemyg 2013 Husmyg kalender Husmyg 2011 Husmyg 2012 Husmyg Sumpmyg 12 Malariamyg Myggestik per døgn Myggestik per døgn Sumpmyg kalender Sumpmyg 2011 Sumpmyg 2012 Sumpmyg 2013 Malariamyg kalender Malariamyg 2011 Malariamyg 2012 Malariamyg Skov- og strandengsmyg 30 Myggeplage Myggestik per døgn 8 6 Myggestik per døgn Skov/strandmyg kalender Skov/strandmyg 2011 Skov/strandmyg 2012 Skov/strandmyg 2013 Myggeplage_kalender Myggeplage 2011 Myggeplage 2012 Myggeplage 2013

5 Exotic mosquitoes Culex modestus

6 700 Obsoletus gr. 600 Pulicaris gr Catch per 24 hours Catch per 24 hours Maj 11. Maj 18. Maj 25. Maj 1. Juni 8. Juni 15. Juni 22. Juni 29. Juni 6. Juli 13. Juli 20. Juli 27. Juli 3. Aug. 10. Aug. 17. Aug. 24. Aug. 31. Aug. 7. Sept. 14. Sept. 21. Sept. 28. Sept. 5. Okt. 12. Okt. 19. Okt. 29. Okt Maj 11. Maj 18. Maj 25. Maj 1. Juni 8. Juni 15. Juni 22. Juni 29. Juni 6. Juli 13. Juli 20. Juli 27. Juli 3. Aug. 10. Aug. 17. Aug. 24. Aug. 31. Aug. 7. Sept. 14. Sept. 21. Sept. 28. Sept. 5. Okt. 12. Okt. 19. Okt. 29. Okt. Obsoletus average Obsoletus 2012 Obsoletus 2013 Pulicaris average Pulicaris 2012 Pulicaris 2013

7 Presence/Absence (probability of presence) C. imicola C. obsoletus

8 Vector mapping in VectorNet (EFSA and ECDC) In 2015: Norway, UK, Greenland and Finland. In 2016: Latvia, Poland, Ukraine and further down

9 Parameterisation of insect model Drivers: Environment Model parameters: Number of insect vectors How often the vector bites Temperature How long it takes for the virus to develop in the vectors The vectors daily survival rate (how long they live) How long a host is infectious to the vectors Disease specific The probability of transmission from an infectious host to a vector The probability of transmission from an infectious vector to a host

10 Basic transmission parameters Cohort of culicoides biting a host day 1 Number of surviving midges from the cohort biting day 1 (in %) Days

11 Basic transmission parameters

12

13 600 Schmallenberg EIR vindue (40-4) per dag mitter

14 Zika virus in Europe 2016 Vector abundance data replaced by teoretic probability for vector presence/absence The only transmission parameter is vector competence No native mosquitoes included No temperature = a score (likelihood of transmission) with two decimals

15 Predicting risk by surveillance of risk factors

16 Predicting risk by surveillance of risk factors

17 Predicting risk by surveillance of risk factors

18 Predicting risk by surveillance of risk factors

19 Bluetongue

20 Bluetongue

21 Bluetongue

22 Xxxxxxxxxxxxxx Xxxxxxxxxxxxxx sle T Xxxxxxxxxxxxxx E

23 Bluetongue 40 years later R 0 05 May years later

24 Bluetongue 40 years later R 0 02 Jun years later

25 Bluetongue 40 years later R 0 30 Jun years later

26 Bluetongue 40 years later R 0 28 Jul years later

27 Bluetongue 40 years later R 0 25 Aug years later

28 Dirofilaria: Annual number of days with infectious mosquitoes

29 Climate change: Mountain slopes as a proxy for climate change Altitude Vector density m a 2 * p n / -ln p C R 0 C (t = t 300m ) C (m = m 300m ) 300 m , m m m m m

30 Micro-climate versus meteorological temperature

31 Degree-hours above 15⁰C

32 Observed versus predicted microclimate

33 Infectious bites/culicoides

34 Model visualization

35 If you want to map vectors or even develop a surveillance system for vectors, then first ask yourself what you will do with the data Ask yourself how you will make decisions related to human and veterinary health based on your vector data Else you risk ending up just mapping mosquitoes and not vectors Keep your focus on the diseases mosquitoes and Culicoides are just input variables

36 Thank you for your attention René Bødker You are most welcome to contact René Bødker