Hepatitis A. Rabies and. Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Vaccine Industry Consultation October 2018

Transcription

1 Hepatitis A Rabies and Seasonal Influenza Vaccines 2018 Vaccine Industry Consultation October 2018

2 Presentation overview Hepatitis A vaccine Rabies Vaccine Seasonal Influenza Vaccine

3 Introduction: Hepatitis A, Rabies and Seasonal Influenza Vaccines These three vaccine presentations are procured via UNICEF PS mechanism through self financing by individual gov ts. Occasionally procurement is financed by UNICEF. There is no or little donor funding for procurement of these vaccines currently but for Seasonal Influenza Vaccine, where, for the first time, procurement of behalf of three countries has been financed by Task Force for Global Health (GTFH) in Procurement of Hepatitis A and Flu Vaccines is through Purchase Orders as a result of annual tendering processes or on ad hoc basis as demand is sporadic. Rabies Vaccine has been accessed through established LTAs since 2014 up until the end of validity of the LTAs in The tender exercise conducted in 2017 for establishment of 3-year time-bound LTAs did not yield any offers of WHO prequalified vaccines. Common traits for these three vaccines are: while demand seem to be increasing over time, forecasting and supply planning remains volatile, coupled with long delivery lead times with manufacturers prioritizing available production to private markets.

4 Quantity, in doses Hepatitis A Vaccine Market and demand forecasting is characterized by: Forecasted demand v/s actual procurement Continued increase in demand through UNICEF There are challenges on how to reduce the long delivery lead times Poor forecasting and lack of visibility into countries requirements Country preferences 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Moving forward: Advocacy for improved forecasting 5, Work with manufacturers and countries to increase flexibility in accessing available WHO pre-qualified vaccines Forecast-No of Doses Actual Procurement -No of doses

5 Quantity, in doses Rabies Vaccine Current context: Forecasted demand v/s actual procurement Continued increase in demand through UNICEF 1,200,000 Lack of access to WHO prequalified vaccine since 2017 Inaccurate forecasting 1,000,000 $10.50 Gavi s Vaccine Investment Strategy including Rabies vaccine to conclude in Q ,000 $7.60 $$7.71 Moving forward: 600,000 Improved demand forecasting Manufacturers of WHO prequalified vaccine to include in 400,000 their production plans, needs for LICs and MICs 200,000 Advocacy for increased availability of WHO pre-qualified Vaccine at affordable price Forecast Actual Procurement WAP Per dose in US$

6 Rabies Vaccine Demand Generation, Industry & the Future To streamline demand and improve visibility, UNICEF is and will be working more with the countries and partners to improve demand forecasting. Demand Industry Currently, there is a significant unmet demand lined up for procurement through UNICEF as soon as access is confirmed. With the current market situation, with only two WHO pre-qualified vaccines in the global market, it is important for suppliers of non-prequalified vaccine to pursue and accelerate efforts to obtain WHO prequalification for their rabies vaccine. Inclusion of needs of low income and middle income countries by suppliers of WHO pre-qualified vaccine to support access to all is important. Establishment of time bound Long Term Arrangements (LTAs) to facilitate access at all times. Future Affordable pricing may incentivize countries to plan and include rabies vaccine in their annual forecasts submitted to UNICEF, creating greater visibility of demand communicated to industry.

7 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Quantity, in doses Current context: Forecasted demand v/s actual procurement Annual tenders are conducted during Q Poor demand forecasting and late requests received by UNICEF Late availability of vaccine with suppliers Increased number of doses due to GTFH funding Country preferences Increased number of doses procured in 2018 is attributed to donor financing from Task Force for Global Health (GTFH). In , GTFH funded supply of 188,000 doses procured by UNICEF on behalf of Forecast-No of Doses Actual Procurement -No of doses three countries. Moving forward: Timely access can be facilitated by early forecasting and confirmation of countries requirements to enable prompt solicitation of the needs from the industry, which will result in inclusion of UNICEF s demand in suppliers production schedules. This will improve vaccine availability and reduce delivery timelines.

8 How to categorize vaccine demand Where does the vaccine requirement come from? How is the demand funded? Is the vaccine used for multiage preventive campaigns? Is the vaccine used for outbreak response? How accepted and how suitable is the vaccine? Is the vaccine procured on behalf of fragile states? Are more countries introducing the vaccine? Are countries moving to other vaccines (presentations / combinations)? How large is the overall demand through UNICEF?

9 How to categorize vaccine demand Demand from vaccination campaigns leads to order congestion Certainty of funding (donor support) facilitates forecast accuracy The larger the overall contracted quantity, enables the managing of forecast inaccuracies Disease outbreaks are difficult to forecast Availability of the appropriate presentation/product eases demand generation Country typology and ability to plan affects forecast accuracy Predicting the timing of production introductions and vaccination campaigns is challenging Affects demand for two products when countries are in process of switching

10 How to categorize vaccine demand Sample analysis of demand categories represented in a subset of vaccine markets requires further refinement and deeper analysis Vaccine Market No share of demand is stable Order congestion Rapid unforecasted requirement Market Characteristics Introductions Product Switch No/Limit Donor Funding Product Suitable/ Acceptable Procurement for fragile states HepA Influenza Measles Measles-Mumps-Rubella Measles-Rubella Meningococcal A Meningococcal ACW containing Oral Cholera Rabies Yellow Fever Count

11 How to categorize vaccine demand Demand quantity falls within charateristics 100 Mds Number of charateristics describing the demand market 1 Mds Sample analysis Share of demand falls within a charateristic 0% - 20% 20% - 40% 40% - 60% 60% -80% % Size of UNICEF Demand Market

12 Thank you