The Texas Pandemic Flu Toolkit: Models for pandemic surveillance, preparation and response

Transcription

1 The Texas Pandemic Flu Toolkit: Models for pandemic surveillance, preparation and response Lauren Ancel Meyers Professor, Section of Integrative Biology Director, Division of Statistics and Scientific Computation The University of Texas at Austin

2 Outline Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Optimizing surveillance Selecting information providers Sample size calculators Web-based decision-support tools for pandemic flu

3 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin ILINet

4 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Optimizing Texas ILINet (with DSHS)

5 Integrating tradition and NextGen data Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Google ILINet

6 Optimizing surveillance networks Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Optimizing Provider Recruitment for Influenza Surveillance Networks Samuel V. Scarpino 1 *, Nedialko B. Dimitrov 2, Lauren Ancel Meyers 1,3 Simulate providers with realistic reporting rates and informational noise. Avoids redundancy. Discovers out-of-sync locations. Google Flu Trends informative for seasonal epidemics only. Outperforms all sensible and published methods. Apply to any disease and any performance metric.

7 Outline Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Optimizing surveillance systems Selecting information providers Sample size calculators Web-based decision-support tools for pandemic flu

8 Right-sizing national laboratory surveillance (with CDC and APHL) Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Follow up investigation Start of season? Flu prevalence?early detection of rare type?

9 Outline Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Optimizing surveillance systems Selecting information providers Sample size calculators Web-based decision-support tools for pandemic flu

10 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Texas Pandemic Flu Toolkit

11 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Pandemic Flu Simulator

12 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Pandemic Flu Simulator

13 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Pandemic Flu Simulator

14 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Texas Flu Forecaster

15 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Ventilator Stockpiling Tool

16 Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Ongoing projects for Texas DSHS Decision-Support Tools for Antiviral and Vaccine Distributions BioSense 2.0 for Early Detection and Surveillance of Influenza Interactive Pandemic Flu Exercise Tool

17 Lessons learned from projects Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Continual dialogue to define tractable, valuable projects, originating with the public health agency Clear deliverables Possibility of scientific discovery and dissemination Funding Clear data hurdles early Intuitive visualizations of methods and results Interactive tools Interdisciplinary teams

18 Contributors Lauren Ancel Meyers The University of Texas at Austin Bruce Clements, Texas DSHS Paul Damien, UT Ned Dimitrov, Naval Postgraduate School Marilyn Felkner, DSHS Alison Galvani, Yale School of Public Health Tom Hladish, UT Neo Huang, UT Greg Johnson, TACC Joe Miller, CDC David Morton, UT Sam Scarpino, UT James Scott, UT Bismark Singh, UT Jeff Taylor, DSHS