Chapter 4 New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards

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1 CRIM 2130 Emergency Management Fall 2016 Chapter 4 New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards School of Criminology and Justice Studies University of Massachusetts Lowell

2 There are more, worse and new types of disasters. Understand the rationale behind this trend. Know the different scales, measures, and types of natural disasters. Explain how humans influence disaster types and trends. Understand terrorists tools for creating disasters. Identify new disasters around which emergency management agencies are currently taking action.

3 Quarantelli s Prediction More disasters Worse disasters New types of disasters Rationale Industrialization puts more people at risk Higher population densities More living next to hazardous facilities Research confirms these trends

4 Each hazard is distinct with regard to characteristics Categories of Hazards Natural Man-made/technological Terrorist induced Hazards are: Often combined Can often lead to another

5 Tornadoes Hurricanes Earthquakes Floods Wildfires Other Events

6 A tornado is violently rotating column of air that is in contact with surface from cumulonimbus clouds downward. Tornados can reach 300 MPH There are about 1200 per year in the United States The most common is between March and August They tend to occur between noon and midnight Measured via the Fujita-Pearson or Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale They tend to follow path of least resistance People in valleys have the greatest exposure to damage Tornado Alley - states with greatest risk: TX, OK, AR, and MO Safe rooms effective in saving lives

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8 Tornado Trends Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center Tornado Alley Elements

9 Recent significant tornados Joplin, MO (5/22/11) Disastrous multiple vortex EF5 tornado Reached 1 mile wide at maximum 158 killed; about 1,000 injured Estimated $2.9 billion in damage Tornado s total track was 22.1 miles long Moore, OK (5/20/13) EF5 (210 mph peak) 17 mile long path 1.5 miles (at peak) 23 killed; 377 injured 1,150 homes destroyed; $2 billion in damage

10 Local tornados Worcester, MA (1953) F4 54 killed $452 million (in 2012 USD) in damage Over 10,000 left homeless Windsor Locks, CT (1979) F4 3 killed $640 million (in 2012 USD) in damage Brooklyn, NY (2007) EF2 Heavy rains flooded subway system All 24 transit lines impacted during morning rush hour

11 NOAA defines a hurricane as: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface wind of 74 MPH or more in the Northern Hemisphere. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator. A hurricane begins as tropical wave and grows in intensity through tropical depression and storm. Hurricanes are characterized by low barometric pressure, closed circulation over warm water and a lack of wind shear. Hurricane season is June 1 - November 30 Effective tracking and warning gives adequate notice to prepare or evacuate Damage is caused by high winds, flooding and storm surge

12 Misc. Hurricane Information

13 Sudden and rapid shaking of earth s surface Caused by shifting of tectonic plates Sudden, no-notice events Occur every day in the United States Most are not even felt Measured according to Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale (MMI) and Richter Scale Can cause the collapse of built structures and damage to infrastructure

14 The Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale describes the strength of an earthquake based on its observed effects while the Richter scale describes the earthquake's magnitude by measuring the seismic waves that cause the earthquake.

15 Most losses in United States Annually most deadly in United States; average 127 deaths Half of deaths are in automobiles In United States there is over $5 billion in losses annually Similar patterns world wide 25,000 deaths annually $50 billion in losses annually Most deadly in Asia

16 U.S. cases dramatically increased since times as many events and over 6 times the area Causes include: Warming trends Federal banning of strategic burning More homes next to forests Australia experiencing similar patterns More and worse events Similar causes 2012 Colorado Springs Wildfires

17 Volcanoes Worldwide Rare but can be devastating Disrupt air travel and electronics 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland Global Warning Data suggest warming over last century Causes still not clear Sunspots and other solar patterns? Human generation of carbon dioxide?

18 Mt. St. Helens, Washington (1980) Last erupted in the 1850s North face broke away and then a catastrophic eruption followed Slide/flow was 17 miles long 57 people were killed The eruption destroyed: 200 homes 27 Bridges 15 miles of railroad 185 miles of highway Total damage was estimated at $2.74 billion (in 2007 USD) Last activity was in January 2008

19 Mt. Ranier Located 52 miles southeast of Seattle Most glaciated and highest peak in the Lower 48 (14,411 feet) Dormant stratovolcano (or composite volcano - a conical volcano consisting of many strata from previous events) Considered a Decade Volcano (one of 17 worthy of study because of their history of large, destructive eruptions and proximity to populated areas) Most recent activity occurred in the mid-1800s Accounts of activity as late as 1898

20 Major threats are lahars A lahar is a mud and debris flow of a rock fragments and water flowing down the slopes of a volcano and/or river valley. Lahars are extremely destructive with very high flow rates, deep and structures in their path. Notable lahars include those at Mount Pinatubo (1991) and Nevado del Ruiz (1985) Approximately 150,000 people live on old lahar deposits near Mt. Rainier

21 Chemical Incidents Chernobyl Institute, West Virginia Gulf Oil Spill Biological Events Black Plague 1917 Influenza Recent SARS H1N1 Threat

22 Bhopal, India (1984) Methyl isocynate gas leak from Union Carbide India Limited pesticide plant Between 2200 and 3700 people died immediately Another 8 to 16,000 died in the following weeks and month An estimated 550,000 sustained injury Institute, WV (1984) Another methyl isocynate gas leak from a Union Carbide plant 130 nearby residents injured Plant officials did not notify local authorities because they believed that the gas would not leave the plant

23 BP/Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill (2010) Semi-submersible, off-shore, oil drilling rig exploded and caught fire 11 workers killed Rig sank the next day Resulted in the largest oil spill/environmental disaster in United States history 4.9 million barrels (210 million gallons)

24 In 1986 Congress passed the Emergency Planning & Community Right to Know Act (EPCRA) Improved local emergency planning to address a wide range of hazardous materials Communities formed local emergency planning committees further enhancing communications among organizations EPA regulation forced businesses to keeps records and inform local emergency management offices about the quantities and type of chemicals on site Subsequent safety and security regulations by TSA, FRA and PHMSA addresses need to know and the dissemination of hazmat information

25 Black Plague, 14th century Killed an estimated million people (30-60% of Europe s population) Reduced the total world population from about 460 to million Caused by a bacterium that is transferred to humans by fleas, with rats acting as carriers Periodic reoccurrences London Plague (1603) Russian Plague ( ) Third Plague Pandemic, Asia ( ) 1918 Influenza Pandemic ( ) Also known as the Spanish Flu (H1N1) 500 million people were infected worldwide million deaths (3-5% of the world population) Healthy, young adults were hardest hit

26 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS ) Originated in China Infected 8,273 people in 37 countries with 775 deaths (9.6% mortality rate) H1N1 Outbreak (Swine Flu ) million cases worldwide 14,286 confirmed deaths During the average flu season, about 36,000 people die in the U.S. Ebola (2014) CDC data 2/3/15 Countries with Widespread Transmission (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) have 13,810 confirmed cases 8,959 and deaths United States had 4 confirmed cased and one death There are 29 other confirmed cases worldwide with 14 deaths Why is there more of a concern regarding the spread of communicable diseases today?

27 Have a high fear factor (i.e. dirty bombs) Low probability/high consequence events Radiological Events Three Mile Island Chernobyl Japan Catastrophe Nuclear Events World War II nuclear bombs Terrorist threat International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) measures disasters from 0 (deviation) to 7 (major accident)

28 Three Mile Island, PA (1979) Worst United States nuclear disaster (INES 2/7) Partial nuclear meltdown Small amounts of radioactive gases and iodine were released into the atmosphere NRC later authorized the release of 140,000 gallons of radioactive water into the Susquehanna River No known residual effects Close to home

29 Chernobyl, Ukraine (1986) Worst nuclear accident in the world (INES 7/7) Reactor explosion and fire released large quantities of radioactive material into the atmosphere, which spread over much of western the former Soviet Union and Europe Russia did not acknowledge accident until high radiation levels were noticed in other countries 31 official death; overall impact on cancer rates unknown There is a 19 mi. radius zone of alienation, which will remain unsafe for the next 20,000 years

30 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster (2011) Reactors damaged after a tsunami triggered by a 9.0 earthquake, flooding the cooling pump generators Reactors overheated causing explosions in containment buildings 50,000 households were displaced Worst accident since Chernobyl (released out 10%-30% of the radiation released by Chernobyl) One of two nuclear accidents with INES 7/7 (Chernobyl) No direct deaths; long-term impact unknown

31 World War II nuclear bombs Hiroshima, 8/6/45, 16KT yield, approximately 66,000 killed; 69,000 injured Nagasaki, 8/9/45, 21KT yield, approximately 40,000 killed Terrorist threat Possibility of terrorists obtaining/improvising and detonating a nuclear device Radiation Dispersal Device (RDD - Dirty Bomb )

32 Not a new means of political violence Four elements Credible threat of extraordinary violence Purpose or goal Choice of targets for their symbolic nature Intent to influence a broader audience than the immediate victims Acts of terrorism are on the rise More distinct since September 11, 2001 attacks 2009 for example 11,000 attacks About 15,000 deaths About 24,000 injuries Asia area of many attacks

33 Natechs are a combination of natural and technological disasters Hurricane Katrina: hurricane, levee failures, flooding and chemical soup compounded Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe: earthquake, tsunami, nuclear plant meltdown and radiation compounded Compounding natural disasters Drought, wildfire, loss of vegetation, mudslides, etc. Computer failures and cyberterrorism Computers impact virtually every aspect of modern life Failures can be: Accidental Intentional (Sony, Target, etc.)

34 Pandemics and Bioterrorism Wide range of pathogens and diseases exist that can kill thousands or millions each year Pandemics spread world-wide Can be: Natural Intentional May be difficult to differentiate natural from terrorism Can be spread through food, air and water Effective response can be difficult Vaccines/drugs may not be available Diseases may mutate

35 Hazards from outer space Asteroids Massive solar flares Can damage or destroy satellites o GPS o Surveillance o Weather Can damage or destroy electronics In short, Quarantelli s prediction (we face new. Worse and more catastrophic[phic events) is worth considering