UNICEF ZIKA Diagnostics VACCINES Demand Forecast. Jorgen Kofoed UNICEF SD

Transcription

1 UNICEF ZIKA Diagnostics VACCINES Demand Forecast Jorgen Kofoed UNICEF SD 1

2 Forecasting model: Overview Assesses various methodologies and targeting assumptions Applies 10-year time horizon incorporating population growth effects but assuming constant rate of disease Illustrates ramp-up period and steadystate demand volumes Uses scale-up matrix to determine incremental country introduction timing informed by WHO s country risk categorization Includes demand for government programmes, and a stockpile 2

3 Forecasting model: Technologies included/excluded INCLUDES Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDT) INCLUDES Point of Care (POC) tests Need for simple, specific IVD for detecting ZKV in acute different biological specimens that can be used in screening / diagnosis (particularly for prenatal and antenatal ZKV infections) and that can generate results quickly and in close proximity to patients EXCLUDES Surveillance testing EXCLUDES Blood screening While there is guidance on use of these technologies, these have not been included in the forecast as UNICEF is not currently planning to procure these tests 3

4 Forecasting model: Country inclusion/exclusion INCLUDES Countries at greatest risk of outbreak and where environment is most suitable for vector (See next slides) INCLUDES Countries likely to channel procurement through UNICEF o Of these, currently focuses on 20 countries with largest populations ( 80% of total forecasted demand) EXCLUDES Countries in Latin America EXLUDES China, India and Indonesia 4

5 Forecasting model: Country selection and Risk categorization (I) Country-risk categorization: The country risk category was based on current WHO classification for Zika virus transmission and environmental suitability (Messina et al., 2016, Oxford University) Environmental suitability (Messina et. al) Highly suitable Limited suitability Unsuitable Countries experiencing a first outbreak of Zika virus since 2015, with no previous evidence of circulation, and with ongoing transmission by mosquitos Classification of Zika virus transmission (WHO) Countries where there is evidence of Zika virus transmission prior to 2015, with or without ongoing transmission; or countries where an outbreak since 2015 is reported to be over Countries with evidence of person-to-person transmission of Zika virus, other than mosquito-borne transmission Countries where there is no evidence of Zika virus transmission Likelihood of demand: 4 very high; 3 high; 2 - moderate; 1 low; 0 none 5

6 Forecasting model: Country selection and risk categorization (II) 6

7 Forecasting model: Base case targeting assumptions Target Group 1 Test ALL symptomatic population Symptomatic population = 1% of total population (based on Dengue outbreak) 80% coverage of target group Wastage : 5% Target Group 2 Test ALL Pregnant Women both with or without symptoms 80% coverage of target group Wastage : 5% BASE CASE: Combination of Target Groups 1+2 Test ALL symptomatic population AND Pregnant Women Symptomatic population = 1% of total population (based on Dengue outbreak) 80% coverage of target groups Wastage : 5% 7

8 Total forecasted demand POC machines and tests NB: Note difference scales on two charts NB: Model assumes that 1 POC machine will perform 1300 tests/year, over 3-years life cycle 8

9 Total forecasted demand RDTs 9

10 Total forecasted demand All tests (RDTs and POC tests) plus Stockpile quantities 10

11 Next steps Running scenarios to test model sensitivities Conducting country consultation (currently ongoing) to inform model parameters Working with UNICEF Country Offices to validate assumptions Working with partners to refine model and possible extend scope; e.g. to incorporate dynamic effects of disease epidemiology Application to inform procurement and contracting modalities 11

12 UNICEF VACCINES THANK YOU! 12