Misreported diabetes: estimating the 'real' burden of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean

Transcription

1 Misreported diabetes: estimating the 'real' burden of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean Flávia Cristina Drumond Andrade Palavras-chave: diabetes auto-referida, subenumeração, limitações funcionais, América Latina, Caribe. Resumo Most studies in developing countries rely on self-reported measures as a way to assess the prevalence and incidence of chronic conditions. Self-reported measures are less expensive to be collected, but their validity is usually questioned. This paper proposes an innovative approach to estimate adjusted diabetes prevalence rates in Latin America and the Caribbean. This approach combines data on demographic, social and clinical diagnosis to predict new prevalence rates. Data from Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe Proyecto (SABE), Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS), Encuesta Nacional de Salud (ENSA) and Estudio de Longevidad y Envejecimiento Saludable (CRELES) are used in the analysis. The results indicate that diabetes prevalence estimated by self-reports is underestimated for most part. For example, the self-reported diabetes prevalence among older adults in Buenos Aires is 12.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], ), while the predicted prevalence can reach 30.2% (95% CI, ). As a consequence, the average number of years expected to be lived with diabetes are considerably higher than one would expect using self-reported measures. Finally, using data from a nationally representative sample of Mexicans, this paper shows that estimates of total life expectancy and disabilityfree life expectancy of diabetics based on self-reports may be biased downwards. In any case, it is important to understand that diabetes reduces total life expectancy and the bulk of this reduction comes in the form of reductions in the number of years expected to be lived without disability. The new estimate shows that total life expectancy of diabetics at age 50 is about 4 years lower than among non-diabetics in Mexico. This estimate contrasts with the estimate obtained with self-reported measures, in which reduction in total life expectancy was about 8 years. The difference between these estimates can be explained by the fact that undiagnosed diabetics are relatively better off than those who self-report being diabetic undiagnosed individuals are usually at earlier stages of the disease progression. Trabalho apresentado no XVI Encontro Nacional de Estudos Populacionais, realizado em Caxambu- MG Brasil, de 29 de setembro a 03 de outubro de University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. 1

2 Misreported diabetes: estimating the 'real' burden of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean Flávia Cristina Drumond Andrade Introduction Most of the studies focusing on diabetes prevalence and trends on Latin America and the Caribbean are usually based on self-reported measures. Self-reported measures have the advantages of being easier to collect, and less expensive. However, there is always the question of how accurate these reports are, particularly among elderly people. It is also possible that misreport varies depending on the characteristics of the respondents. Existing literature has shown that diabetes self-report is relatively accurate, even among elderly people (Bush et al. 1989, Okura et al. 2004), but most of the studies use data from developed countries, where knowledge of health status may differ considerably from developing countries. Lack of diagnosis is probably the main problem with self-reported data in Latin America and the Caribbean because health care systems in this region face large limitations of resources and coverage. For this reason, clinical diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in the region usually happens many years after its onset when symptoms (increased thirst, profuse urination, unexplained weight loss, among others) become apparent. Some individuals with type 2 diabetes can live for many years without being diagnosed, and in other cases they will never be diagnosed. Another problem that emerges with late diagnosis of diabetes is that complications are usually evident at the time of diagnosis, and may have even been present for several years. Usually, those with undiagnosed diabetes have milder diabetes than those diagnosed, which indicates that diagnosis increases with severity of the disease and comorbidities (Franse et al. 2001). In fact, prevalence of chronic diseases is higher among undiagnosed cases than among nondiabetics (Franse et al. 2001). Undiagnosed diabetes reaches 16-24% of the surviving acute stroke patients (Gray et al. 2004). Higher BMI is also more prevalent among undiagnosed cases than among those without diabetes (Franse et al. 2001). Moreover, studies analyzing changes on diabetes classification show that individuals who were not considered diabetics under the WHO criteria, but would be classified as diabetics under the ADA, had higher mortality than nondiabetics (Vegt et al. 1998, Young and Mustard 2001) even though they had lower mortality than diabetics under WHO criteria (Young and Mustard 2001). Individuals who were undiagnosed at baseline of NHANES II had higher mortality than those without diabetes (Saydah et al. 2004). Indeed, late diagnosis of diabetes may be translated in higher mortality since comorbid conditions may be irreversible by the time of diagnosis. Trabalho apresentado no XVI Encontro Nacional de Estudos Populacionais, realizado em Caxambu- MG Brasil, de 29 de setembro a 03 de outubro de University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. 2

3 There is some evidence that undiagnosed rates are quite high in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Mexico, 42% of diabetics younger than 40 years were unaware of their condition in a national survey conducted in urban areas the early 1990s, while 74% of individuals diagnosed with diabetes aged 40 and over were aware of their diabetic status (Aguilar-Salinas et al. 2002). In Argentina, undiagnosed cases reach about half of the cases (Hernández et al. 1987) and among those diagnosed about a third do not control their diabetes by any means, while the remaining group presents poor glucose control. In Brazil, levels of undiagnosed diabetes are estimated to be around 40-50%. Malerbi and Franco (1992) found that undiagnosed diabetes accounted for 46% of the total prevalence. In this study, glucose tolerance tests were only conducted in those positive screened individuals in the FCG test and some selected negative screened. Sakata et al. (2002) analyzed a sample of 922 of residents aged 40 and over of a small town in the South region of Brazil. Sakata and colleagues also selected only cases positive screened and found that 42.7% were undiagnosed cases. However, undiagnosed rates can be even higher among certain social groups. For instance, Brito, Lopes and Araújo (2001) find that among a selected high-risk population of obese women, undiagnosed cases reached about 70%. There are also sex differences on undiagnosed rates in Brazil. For instance, Goldenberg et al. (1996) report that almost 60% of men in São Paulo constituted undiagnosed cases, while among women the percentage was close to 41%. In Chile, undiagnosed cases reached 45% of the population aged 20 and older. However, the prevalence of diabetics aged who had not being previously diagnosed reached 67%, and decreased as people aged reaching 37.5% in the 65 and over age group (Baechler et al. 2002). This is consistent with the fact that older people have more time to develop the disease and to present complications that may trigger medical diagnosis and treatment. Given the fact that undiagnosed rates are relatively high in Latin America and the Caribbean, the question is whether self-reported measures can be used to estimate true diabetic status. More broadly, the question is how to account for misreported cases when estimating prevalence rates. The primary goal of this paper is to estimate new prevalence rates for the SABE (Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe Proyecto) and MHAS (Mexican Health and Aging Study) samples taking into consideration misreporting. The new prevalence rates are based on predicted probabilities of having diabetes, using the self-reported measures, obtained in SABE and MHAS, as a predictive variable. These new prevalence rates are tentative, since the intention is to have an idea about the maximum burden imposed in the population. These same rates will then be used to obtain estimates of diabetes-free life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy by diabetic status that will be compared with those based on self-reports. In order to estimate the new prevalence rates, data from a nationally representative sample of Mexican adults (Encuesta Nacional de Salud, ENSA) and data from a nationally representative sample of older individuals in Costa Rica (Estudio de Longevidad y Envejecimiento Saludable, CRELES) will be used. ENSA and CRELES data have information on self-reported diabetes as well as measures of blood glucose levels. Data from ENSA and CRELES will be used to compare the diabetes status information obtained from self-report with the clinical diagnosis to assess the degree of concordance between these measures. Background Misreport in this case not only imposes problems in adequately measuring the burden of the condition, but it also makes more difficult to make comparisons across settings. This is particularly problematic because misreport usually varies depending on the social, economic 3

4 and demographic characteristics of the respondents. Often, individuals underreport prevalent chronic conditions. As a consequence, prevalence might be underestimated, but more importantly, analyses across settings and social groups may be biased if those characteristics are associated with diabetes reporting. As shown in the literature, misreport of chronic conditions depend on the type of the disease and its severity - diseases that are less severe and more transient are more poorly reported (Bergmann et al. 2004). Other demographic and socioeconomic factors, such as gender, education and socioeconomic status also influence the quality of the self-report and its consistency over time (Wu, Li and Ke 2000, Beckett et al. 2000). There are few studies that have evaluated the precision of assessments of chronic conditions, particularly diabetes. Moreover, most of the studies assessing diabetes self-report focus on developed countries (Krueger 1957, Tretli, Lung-Larsen and Foss 1982, Bush et al. 1989, Heliovaara et al. 1993, Kehoe et al. 1994, Kriegsman et al. 1996, Haapanen et al. 1997, Martin et al. 2000, Simpson et al. 2004, Bergmann et al. 2004), and usually their sample sizes are small (Krueger 1957, Bush et al. 1989, Martin et al. 2000). There are even fewer studies that have analyzed the accuracy of self-report of chronic conditions among the elderly population (Bush et al. 1989, Kriegsman et al. 1996, Haapanen et al. 1997, Wu et al. 2000, Goldman, Weinstein and Li 2002, Simpson et al. 2004). The self-report among the elderly population may be of greater concern because elderly individuals may be more likely to misreport than younger individuals (Haapanen et al. 1997). In fact, elderly individuals have more cognitive problems that may affect their self-report. In fact, some studies have shown that elderly individuals are more likely to respond don t know, to respond in a socially desirable manner or to inaccurately report (Sherbourne and Meredith 1992, Kriegsman et al. 1996). However, there is good evidence that self-report provided by elderly individuals is usually accurate, particularly with more severe diseases. It is also important to note that elderly individuals are more likely to visit their physicians more often, which may increase their awareness. Although, Haapanen et al. (1997) shows that number of health services contact increased the misclassification of self-reported cardiovascular diseases in their sample. The limited literature (Kruger 1957; Tretli, Lung-Larsen and Foss 1982; Bush et al. 1989; Heliovaara et al. 1993; Kehoe et al. 1994; Kriegsman et al. 1996; Haapanen et al. 1997; Martin et al. 2000; Wu, Li and Ke 2000; Goldman et al. 2002, Simpson et al. 2004; Bergmann et al. 2004) indicates that self-reported diabetes status is fairly accurate, even among elderly individuals. In all the studies, specificity is very high, reaching more than 97% in most of the studies. Therefore, the percentage of individuals without diabetes who self-report having diabetes is generally small. However, this overreporting may have important consequences in the total self-reported prevalence because even a small proportion can make a difference when most of the individuals do not have diabetes. Sensitivity values are not as high and they indicate that a considerable percentage of individuals who have diabetes are unaware of their diabetic status. This underreporting biases downwards the self-reported rates. However, it is important to mention that the lack of other studies in developing areas limits the scope of these conclusions. Therefore, it is important to analyze whether diabetes self-reports are useful in developing countries. Also, previous studies have also shown that there is some evidence that some demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are important determinants of the quality of report. For that reason, this paper will analyze the quality of self-reported diabetes status in two settings in Latin America and the Caribbean and how selfreports can be used to generate new estimates of diabetes prevalence that take misreport into consideration. 4

5 Data and Methods Data from Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe Proyecto (SABE) and Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) is used in the analyses. In addition, the paper will make use of Encuesta Nacional de Salud (ENSA 2000), a national health survey conducted in Mexico and Costa Rica: Estudio de Longevidad y Envejecimiento Saludable (CRELES). The agreement between self-reported diabetes and clinical data in ENSA 2000 and CRELES is assessed by the percentage of agreement, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Kappa and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve statistics (results available upon request). In order to determine whether demographic and social characteristics influence the accuracy of patient s self-reports, multinomial logistic regression analysis is employed. Three categories of reporting are considered: perfect reporting, underreporting and overreporting. The perfect reporting category is the reference category. This analysis also identifies the individual characteristics that are associated with accuracy of reporting. Logistic regressions are also be used to analyze the association between actual diabetic status and self-reported diabetes taking into consideration demographic and social characteristics of the respondents (results available upon request). This analysis is performed using the logistic regression approach. Given the predictive value of this estimation, the final equation will then be used to estimate the new diabetes prevalence rates for SABE and MHAS settings. More details about the implemented procedure used to estimate the new diabetes prevalence rates are described in Andrade (2006). All statistical analyses were performed using STATA 9.1 S.E. Sample weights were used to determine the predicted prevalence of diabetes. Finally, diabetes-free life expectancy will be estimated based on the Sullivan method and disability-free life expectancies by diabetic status will be estimated using IMaCh 0.98g. Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe Proyecto (SABE) SABE is a multicenter survey that investigates the health and wellbeing of older people (aged 60 and over) and, in some cases, of their surviving spouse in seven capital/major cities in countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. The cities investigated were: Buenos Aires (Argentina); Bridgetown (Barbados); São Paulo (Brazil); Santiago (Chile); Havana (Cuba); Mexico City (Mexico); Montevideo (Uruguay) (Palloni and Peláez 2002, Peláez et al. 2003, Peláez et al. 2005). Basic demographic and household characteristics were collected along with selfreported health and chronic conditions, disability, depression and cognitive status, use and access of health services and family support systems. SABE also contains important information on socioeconomic indicators such as literacy, educational level, income, work history and housing characteristics. SABE also contains important information on activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and Nagi limitations. Response rates reached 62.5% in Buenos Aires, 80.3% in Bridgetown, 95.3% in Havana, 83.7% in Mexico City, 65.3% in Montevideo, 83.2% in Santiago and 84.6% in São Paulo (Peláez et al. 2005). Additional details on data are presented in Andrade (2006). The sample is composed by 10,602 individuals aged 60 and over. Among other questions, individuals were asked if a doctor has ever told them if they had diabetes. For those answering that have been diagnosed with diabetes, additional questions on use of oral medication, insulin injections, and diet were made. Among those 10,602 individuals, 8,782 5

6 were not previously diagnosed with diabetes, while 1,763 reported a previous diagnosis of diabetes. Most of the cases are believed to represent type 2 diabetes. Other 57 individuals did not answer the question (0.54% of the sample) and were excluded from the analysis. There were no age or sex differences between those who answered or not the question regarding a previous diagnosis of diabetes. The final sample is composed by 10,540 individuals. Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) MHAS is a prospective two-wave panel study of a nationally representative cohort of Mexicans born prior to 1951 (50 and older). Surviving spouses regardless of their age were also interviewed. The baseline interview was conducted in 2001 and the second wave during Respondents were selected concurrently with the 2000 National Employment Study (Encuesta Nacional de Empleo, ENE), a nationally representative survey conducted by the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia, e Informatica (INEGI). MHAS collects a broad range of health (chronic diseases, disease symptoms, cognitive status, and anthropometric measures), disability and mortality relevant information. In the core questionnaire, individuals were asked to provide information on self-assessment of health status. Individuals were also asked if a doctor has ever told them if they had diabetes and other chronic diseases. There is also relevant information on a range of health symptoms. MHAS contains important information on activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and Nagi limitations. In the core questionnaire, respondents informed about possible limitations on Nagi functions, ADL and IADL measures. In this section of the questionnaire, the questions were the same in 2001 and In the first wave, response rate reached 90.1%, 89.2 and among targets and 97.2% for spouses. A total of 15,144 complete interviews were obtained. A direct interview was sought with each individual, and proxy interviews were obtained when poor health or temporary absence precluded a direct interview. In this phase, the final sample is composed by 13,022 individuals aged 50 and over with complete information on age, sex and diabetic status. From the initial 15,144 individuals, there are 1,718 with less than 50 years of age, and they were excluded from the analysis. The final sample used in this paper excludes 404 individuals without diabetic status at baseline. There were no age differences among those with complete or missing information on diabetic status, but more men lacked this information than women. The follow-up interviews with surviving respondents were conducted in More importantly, the second wave collected information for deceased respondents based on nextof-kin or informed respondent. Next-of-kin questionnaires have information on age and data of death, primary sickness that caused death (cancer, diabetes, stroke, heart, or another health problem), and about health problems that were diagnosed in the last months of life. Response rates reached 93.4% at the individual level for about 12,000 follow-up with surviving individuals who were age 50 or older at the baseline. There were about 540 next-of-kin interviews, which was consistent with the apriori expected number of deaths in the MHAS population during a two-year interval based on Mexican life tables. Mexican National Health Survey (ENSA) data Data from ENSA 2000, National Health Survey, will be used to estimate the probabilities of having diabetes taking into account self-reported diabetic status, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. ENSA is a nationally representative survey conducted in Mexico based on a random sample of basic geographic statistical units obtained in each of the Mexican states and in the Federal District (Mexico City) from a database produced by the 6

7 Instituto Nacional de Geografía y Estadística (National Institute of Geography and Statistics). A total of 47,360 households, with over 123,000 individuals, were identified. However, for the purpose of this paper, only individuals aged 50 and over will be included in the final sample. There are 13,064 individuals aged 50 and over (4,744 men and 8,320 women). Detailed information on sample selection of ENSA is presented elsewhere (Aguilar-Salinas et al. 2003, Sanchez-Castillo et al. 2003, and Rio-Navarro et al. 2004). Demographic data and medical history were recorded using a standardized questionnaire. For those with diabetes, additional questions assessing age at diagnosis, treatment-related issues, and symptoms were also made. Measurement of capillary glucose concentration was requested from all participants. All of the procedures were undertaken in accordance with the ethical standards of the Helsinki Declaration of 1975, as revised in The final sample for the multivariate analysis is composed by 12,435 individuals with complete information on diabetic status, selected symptoms and education. Those with missing data on selected variables were older than those with complete information, 64 years versus 62.9 (p<0.05), respectively. A higher percentage of males, 5.8%, had missing data than females, 4.2% (p<0.001). In the present analysis, those who had a history of diabetes mellitus and were under oral hypoglycemic agents and/or insulin therapy were deemed to be cases of diabetes ( true diabetes ). Individuals who meet any of the following criteria were also classified as diabetics ( true diabetes ): a) fasting plasma glucose 126mg/dL or b) casual (random) capillary glucose concentration 200 mg/dl. Blood specimens were collected through capillary puncture. The large majority of individuals (95.4%) were not fasting at the time of the blood collection. Individuals were also asked if a doctor has ever told them if they had diabetes. This information is equivalent to the self-reported measure of diabetes mellitus in SABE and MHAS. ENSA also collected information on symptoms of diabetes (polyuria, polydipsia, and unexplained weight loss).. Creles data Data from CRELES, Costa Rican Study on Longevity and Healthy Aging, refer to the population born in Costa Rica in 1945 or earlier and that was alive during the period The sample in the first wave is derived from an original random sample of 8,000 individuals ages 55 and over interviewed in the 2000 Census. A subsample was selected and it is expected to produce valid information on 3,000 individuals. For the purpose of this work, data are limited to 1,832 individuals interviewed until December 31st, Detailed information on sample selection can be found in Brenes (2006). Demographic data and medical history are recorded using a standardized questionnaire. For those self-reporting having diabetes, additional questions assessing age at diagnosis, treatment-related issues, and symptoms were also made. Blood and urine samples, as well as anthropometric measures are usually collected in the next day morning (Brenes 2006). The final sample is composed by 1,539 individuals with complete information on diabetic status, self-reported diabetes, literacy and some diabetes-related symptoms. CRELES has information on self-reported diabetes diagnosis and clinical information based on blood samples draw from a vein (venipucture). There are two biomarkers that CRELES can use to determine diabetes: glycosylated hemoglobin levels (HbA1c 6.5%) and fasting serum glucose levels (FSG 126 mg/dl). The latter is the criterion recommended by a World Health Organization (WHO) Consultation Group (1999) for diabetes diagnosis. 7

8 Glycosylated hemoglobin levels gives a good indication of how much sugar has been in a person's blood during the past months. It is usually used to monitor the effectiveness of diabetes treatment, but it is not indicated to detect diabetes cases. Therefore, it will not be included in the present analysis. There were 1,537 individuals (84%) who provided blood samples and 295 individuals to whom data is not available. Among those who provided blood samples, 1,457 (97%) were fasting for more than eight hours (the question asked if they have eaten or drunk anything since 6 pm of the previous day). In the present analysis, those who had a history of diabetes mellitus and were under oral hypoglycemic agents and/or insulin therapy were deemed to be cases of diabetes ( true diabetes ). Individuals with FSG greater or equal than 126 mg/dl were also classified as diabetics ( true diabetes ). The FSG is the standard test performed in Costa Rica for diagnosis. Serum fasting glucose levels were determined by laboratories in the University of Costa Rica (UCR) and in Caja Costarricense del Seguro Social (CCSS, in Hospital San Juan de Dios). Method for estimating new prevalence rates for SABE and MHAS Using data from ENSA and CRELES the initial goal is to fit a predictive model of the true diabetic status using the self-reported measure of diabetes as a covariate. Logistic regression is used to fit the predictive model since the dependent variable is binary. Where the probability of truly having diabetes is a function of the independent predictor variables, which are: age, gender, polydipsia, weight loss and literacy. Other symptoms such as swollen feet, dizziness, polyuria and other possible predictors of diabetes, such as BMI were also analyzed. Other variables did not improve the fit of the predictive models when applied to ENSA and CRELES data. The only exception was fatigue that seemed to be a good predictor of CRELES data. Therefore, it will be included in the predictions based on CRELES. However, it is not available in ENSA. The decision to do not incorporate BMI comes from the fact that there was no available data in SABE for Buenos Aires and data from MHAS only contains BMI measures for a limited sample. The adoption of a common model was preferred. Therefore, obesity or BMI indicators are not included here. Finally, hypertension was also analyzed but it did not improve the predictive power of the models either. The next step is to calculate the probability of a positive outcome using SABE and MHAS data. For instance, the predictive models based on CRELES are: P( Y CRELES CRELES α + βi Xi ( SABE) e = 1 X SABE ) = CRELES CRELES α + βi Xi ( SABE) for SABE 1+ e And P( Y CRELES CRELES + βi Xi ( MHAS ) = 1 X MHAS CRELES CRELES α + βi Xi ( MHAS ) for MHAS α e ) = 1+ e Results based on ENSA followed a similar methodology. Important to note that predicted probabilities are obtained using the independent variables from SABE and MHAS. As it is well-known, in the logistic regression model, the predicted values for the dependent variable are always in the range 0 to 1 regardless of the regression coefficients or the magnitude of the independent variables. However, the predicted values for the dependent variable will never be exactly 0 or 1. Therefore, in order to obtain the new estimates of 8

9 diabetes prevalence, two different approaches of categorizing the predicted probabilities were adopted: a) individual predicted values of the dependent variable were averaged across groups of interest and b) those to which the predicted probability was higher than a random number were classified as having diabetes, while those with lower values than a random number were categorized as non-diabetics. This last approach was repeated 100 times; the values presented on tables are averages of these one hundred estimations. Because the results of these two approaches are almost identical, the estimates presented in this paper are the ones obtained using the second procedure. Finally, for the estimation based on MHAS, one random number out of those one hundred was selected and it was used to generate the tables with the results of total and disability-free life expectancy by diabetic status using IMaCh. The results used for model selection and analyses are available upon request. Results New estimates of diabetes prevalence data in Latin America and the Caribbean As discussed before, diabetes self-report is usually moderately well reported, but there is evidence that self-reported prevalence rates in Latin America and the Caribbean underestimate the actual prevalence. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to use selfreported diabetes status and other important demographic and social covariates to estimate the actual diabetes status, and ultimately obtain new prevalence rates. This selected approach was to use estimates from ENSA and CRELES, which contain both clinical and self-reported measures, to predict the probabilities of actually having diabetes based on covariates from SABE and MHAS. The underlying assumption is that the models are valid for all participating countries. This is a very strong assumption. However, there are reasons to believe that this is a reasonable one. In the case of ENSA, Mexico represents a large country from Latin America that is more closely related to countries represented in SABE and MHAS than developed countries to which this type of data would be available. Moreover, for two of the analyzed samples, Mexico City in SABE and Mexico in MHAS, we can be even more confident of its suitability. However, differences between self-reported and true rates in Mexico are relatively small and this may be due to the adopted diagnostic procedure used in this survey. This brings to the advantage of using CRELES from Costa Rica. In CRELES, the diagnostic procedure produced a larger number of true negative cases (undiagnosed) relatively to ENSA from Mexico. In fact, the larger number of newly diagnosed cases is similar to the descriptions of some previous studies conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean (results available upon request). Moreover, the inclusion of these two extremes gives a better idea of the range in which the real prevalence rates may be. Finally, the use of these models constitute an alternative to the procedures used in WHO studies (King, Aubert and Herman 1998 and Wild et al. 2004) that predict prevalence rates for several Latin American and Caribbean countries based on a single number that indicates the proportion of cases that have not being previously diagnosed. Moreover, these previous studies from WHO use prevalence data from few countries in the region that are used for many other countries. The approach adopted in this study makes use of relevant data on self-reported measures and other demographic and social characteristics of the analyzed countries to predict the true diabetes prevalence. Table 1 shows the self-reported prevalence and the predicted prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals of the predicted values based on CRELES and ENSA (results by age and sex available upon request). Important to note that sample sizes of predicted values are smaller than the ones based on self-reports due to missing values on variables used in the prediction. SABE sample is composed by 10,540 individuals, but the sample size based on 9

10 ENSA is restricted to 9,976 and the one based on CRELES is limited to 9,932 individuals. MHAS sample is composed by 13,022 individuals aged 50 and over, while samples based on predicted values are restricted to 11,747 and 11,737, based on ENSA and CRELES, respectively. Results from Table 1 indicate that diabetes self-reported prevalence is underestimated in most analyzed settings when ENSA relations are used to predict new estimates, but the self-reported prevalence is always underestimated if CRELES is used instead. Predicted rates increase by 2% in Mexico City to 19.5% in Santiago when ENSA is used and, predicted values are about 1% lower in Bridgetown than the self-reported ones. However, when CRELES is used instead, the differences between self-reported and predicted are considerably larger varying from 64% in Bridgetown to 126% in Montevideo. In Buenos Aires, the self-reported prevalence is 12.4%, but predicted prevalence reaches 14% when ENSA is used and 30% when CRELES is used. In Bridgetown, predicted values based on ENSA are very similar to the self-reported (21.7%), but it reaches 37% if CRELES is used. In São Paulo, predicted prevalence based on ENSA reaches 19.4% and 33.7% when CRELES is used (compared to 18% of the self-reported rate). In Santiago, the self-reported rate is 13.3%, but it rises to 16% based on ENSA and 29% if it is based on CRELES. Predicted prevalence based on ENSA in Havana is about 10% higher than selfreported prevalence rate 14.8% and 16.2%, respectively. However, true prevalence rate in Havana would reach 32% if CRELES is used. In Mexico City, predicted rate are 2% higher than the ones estimated using self-reports, but in Mexico underreport seems to be considerably higher based on ENSA. In fact, predicted prevalence rates in Mexico based on ENSA are 13% higher than self-reported among those aged 60 and over. If CRELES is used, underreport in Mexico is also higher than in Mexico City. This finding may reflect a higher awareness in Mexico City given more access to information and to the health care system. Finally, estimated prevalence in Montevideo reaches 14%, but predicted prevalence rates based on ENSA are 13% higher (18%) and 126% higher (31%) based on CRELES. Table 1 Self-reported and predicted diabetes prevalence rates, and 95% confidence intervals (weighted estimates), SABE and MHAS 2001 Data sources and countries SABE Self-reported prevalence Predicted using ENSA Predicted using CRELES Prevalence 95% CI Prevalence 95% CI Buenos Aires (Argentina) Bridgetown (Barbados) São Paulo (Brazil) Santiago (Chile) Havana (Cuba) Mexico City (Mexico) Montevideo (Uruguay) MHAS 2001 Mexico (50+) Mexico (60+)

11 New estimates of diabetes-free life expectancy taking into account misreport of diabetes status Table 2 shows the diabetes-free life expectancy and the average number of years that individuals aged 60 and over are expected to live with diabetes when self-reported data is adjusted by misreport using ENSA. In all settings, women are expected to live longer, but also with a larger number of years with diabetes. Except for Buenos Aires and Mexico City, in all other settings women are also expected to live a larger proportion of their lives with diabetes. Results presented in Table 2 based on ENSA show that males aged 60 years in Buenos Aires are expected to live, on average, 2.5 years with diabetes, while their female counterparts are expected to live 2.9 years. In Bridgetown, diabetes life expectancy reaches 3.5 years among men aged 60, while women at the same age are expected to live 5.2 years, on average, with diabetes. Men aged 60 in São Paulo are expected to live, on average, 3 years with diabetes while women of the same age are expected to live 4.3 years with diabetes. In Santiago, the diabetes life expectancy at age 60 reaches 2.7 years among men and 3.8 years among women. In Havana, the difference in diabetes life expectancy between males and females is remarkable men aged 60 are expected to live, on average, 1.7 years with diabetes, while their female counterparts are expected to live 4.6 years. In Mexico City, diabetes life expectancy at age 60 reaches 4.4 years among men and 4.7 years among women. However, in Mexico the difference in diabetes life expectancy between males and females is greater than in Mexico City. In Mexico, diabetes life expectancy at age 60 reaches 3.3 years for males and 4.4 years for females. Finally, results from Montevideo show that men aged 60 are expected to live, on average, 2.4 years with diabetes and their female counterparts, 3.5 years. The results presented in Table 2 based on ENSA are very similar to those using selfreported rates. This happens because adjustments in the predicted rates are somewhat small when ENSA is used. Therefore, the absolute variation in the diabetes life expectancies is consequently small. In fact, for females in Bridgetown, the new estimate of diabetes life expectancy is 0.2 years smaller than it would be if self-reported rates were being used. On the other extreme, women in Santiago have their diabetes life expectancy increased in 0.6 years when predicted rates based on ENSA are used instead of self-reported rates. In relative terms, diabetes life expectancy among males is increased by 32% in Havana, 19% in Santiago, 13% in Montevideo, 11% in Mexico, 5% in São Paulo, 4% in Buenos Aires, and 1% in Bridgetown. In Mexico City, predicted rates are smaller than self-reported ones, therefore expected number of years to be lived with diabetes are reduced by 3% among males. Among females, the largest increases are found among women in Buenos Aires (18%), Santiago (18%), and Montevideo (14%). Among older women in Mexico and São Paulo, changes in the expected number of years to be lived with diabetes are in-between, 8% and 6%, respectively. In Havana and Mexico City, adjustments are smaller 3% and 2%, respectively. In Bridgetown, the predicted diabetes life expectancy taking misreport into account is 4% smaller than the one obtained with self-report. Table 3, on the other hand, shows significant changes in diabetes-free life expectancy and diabetes life expectancy. Table 3 shows the results when CRELES is used to predict the prevalence rates of SABE and MHAS. Diabetes life expectancies are considerably higher than self-reported rates in all settings. The smaller increase is found among males in Mexico City, 2.8 years, while the larger increase is found among females in Buenos Aires, 4 years. Results from Table 2 confirm that women live longer lives, but with a larger number of years with diabetes. Women in Bridgetown, Santiago, Havana and Mexico are also expected to live a larger percentage of their lives with diabetes. Results based on CRELES 11

12 show that males in Mexico City are expected to live 7.4 years with diabetes and 13 without after they reach age 60. Their female counterparts are expected to live 7.7 years with diabetes and 14.5 without based on predicted rates using CRELES. In Bridgetown, diabetes life expectancy reaches almost 9 years among females and is about 6 years among males. The largest differential in diabetes life expectancy between males and females is found in Havana. In this urban area, men aged 60 are expected to live, on average 5 years with diabetes and their female counterparts 7.7 years. The smallest difference is found in Mexico City diabetes life expectancy only differs in 0.3 years. Table 2 Total life expectancy, diabetes-free life expectancy and diabetes life expectancy at age 60, by sex, based on predicted diabetes prevalence rates obtained using ENSA Sex and region Males Total life expectancy at age 60 (e 60 ) Diabetes life expectancy (DLE 60 ) based on ENSA Diabetes-free life expectancy (DFLE 60 ) based on ENSA s.e. (DFLE) Buenos Aires (Argentina) Bridgetown (Barbados) São Paulo (Brazil) Santiago (Chile) Havana (Cuba) Mexico City (Mexico) Montevideo (Uruguay) Mexico Females Buenos Aires (Argentina) Bridgetown (Barbados) São Paulo (Brazil) Santiago (Chile) Havana (Cuba) Mexico City (Mexico) Montevideo (Uruguay) Mexico The results from this section indicate that diabetes imposes a considerable burden on these populations. Individuals aged 60 and over in these countries are expected to live between 10% and 23% of their remaining lives with diabetes if misreport is adjusted using ENSA, but these percentages can be even higher 27% to 38% if misreport is estimated using CRELES. In any case, because diabetes is associated with increases in the prevalence and incidence of disability, it imposes important economic and social costs on these populations. Also, the direct costs of diabetes (drugs, consultations and hospitalizations) are substantial (Barceló et al. 2004), particularly for developing countries. 12

13 Table 3 Total life expectancy, diabetes-free life expectancy and diabetes life expectancy at age 60, by sex, based on predicted diabetes prevalence rates obtained using CRELES Sex and region Males Total life expectancy at age 60 (e 60 ) Diabetes life expectancy (DLE 60 ) based on CRELES Diabetes-free life expectancy (DFLE 60 ) based on CRELES s.e. (DFLE) Buenos Aires (Argentina) Bridgetown (Barbados) São Paulo (Brazil) Santiago (Chile) Havana (Cuba) Mexico City (Mexico) Montevideo (Uruguay) Mexico Females Buenos Aires (Argentina) Bridgetown (Barbados) São Paulo (Brazil) Santiago (Chile) Havana (Cuba) Mexico City (Mexico) Montevideo (Uruguay) Mexico New estimates of total and health life expectancy of diabetics and non-diabetics taking misreport into account This final section uses data from Mexico that was corrected for misreport using CRELES. The goal is to present new estimates of total and health life expectancy of diabetics and non-diabetics taking misreport into account. Estimates based on ENSA are not presented here because they are very similar to the ones obtained with self-reports. Table 4 to Table 6 show that sample sizes are smaller when using predicted values because of the missing data on variables selected to predict the new values. Table 4 show the total life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy and disabled life expectancy in Mexico based on ADL limitations. It compares information provided using self-reports and the ones based on the predicted values using CRELES. The results indicate that total life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy of diabetics is higher when diabetes information is corrected for misreport. In other words, estimates of total life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy of diabetics based on self-reports may be biased downwards. However, the estimates of disabled life expectancy of diabetics are quite similar disregarding the type of method used to classify individuals. At the same time, estimates of total life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy of non-diabetics are slightly lower when diabetes status is corrected by misreport. Therefore, there is some evidence that traditional methods of estimating total life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy of diabetics may be biased downwards. As discussed previously, individuals that are newly diagnosed are relatively better off than those who self-report being diabetic fact 13

14 that it is consistent with the fact that undiagnosed individuals are usually at earlier stages of the disease progression. This conclusion is, however, not definitive because sample sizes are different between self-reports and predicted values. In any case, it is important to understand that diabetes reduces total life expectancy and the bulk of this reduction comes in the form of reductions in the number of years expected to be lived without disability. In the restricted sample with predicted values, total life expectancy of diabetics at age 50 is about 4 years lower than total life expectancy of non-diabetics. Moreover, the bulk of this difference is due to reduction in years to be lived without disability. Similar conclusion is found when disability-free life expectancy is calculated based on IADL and Nagi limitations ( Table 5 and Table 6). Table 4 Total life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy and disabled healthy expectancy based on ADL limitations by age and diabetic status, Mexico, MHAS Impairment and sample size 50 (s.d) 60 (s.d) 70 (s.d) 80 (s.d) Self-reports (N=12,050) Non-diabetics TLE 32.8 (0.606) 24.2 (0.585) 16.6 (0.567) 10.4 (0.531) DFLE 28.8 (0.520) 20.5 (0.498) 13.4 (0.478) 7.8 (0.437) DLE 3.9 (0.224) 3.7 (0.230) 3.2 (0.239) 2.6 (0.247) Diabetics TLE 24.7 (0.927) 17.2 (0.782) 11.1 (0.656) 6.6 (0.537) DFLE 20.5 (0.739) 13.4 (0.599) 7.9 (0.470) 4.0 (0.345) DLE 4.2 (0.381) 3.8 (0.360) 3.3 (0.345) 2.6 (0.336) Predicted values based on CRELES (N=10,043) Non-diabetics TLE 32.2 (0.663) 23.6 (0.627) 16.1 (0.591) 10.0 (0.539) DFLE 28.5 (0.578) 20.2 (0.544) 13.1 (0.509) 7.6 (0.455) DLE 3.7 (0.226) 3.4 (0.228) 3.0 (0.232) 2.4 (0.236) Diabetics TLE 28.2 (0.823) 20.3 (0.739) 13.5 (0.666) 8.3 (0.575) DFLE 24.0 (0.670) 16.4 (0.584) 10.2 (0.504) 5.6 (0.410) DLE 4.1 (0.327) 3.8 (0.323) 3.4 (0.323) 2.7 (0.323) Age 14

15 Table 5 Total life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy and disabled healthy expectancy based on IADL information by age and diabetic status, Mexico, MHAS Impairment and sample size 50 (s.d) 60 (s.d) 70 (s.d) 80 (s.d) Self-reports (N=12,065) Non-diabetics TLE 32.6 (0.594) 24.0 (0.568) 16.4 (0.549) 10.2 (0.518) DFLE 29.0 (0.485) 20.5 (0.454) 13.1 (0.429) 7.2 (0.384) DLE 3.6 (0.239) 3.5 (0.248) 3.4 (0.264) 3.0 (0.288) Diabetics TLE 24.8 (0.901) 17.2 (0.757) 10.9 (0.636) 6.4 (0.536) DFLE 21.3 (0.731) 13.8 (0.589) 7.8 (0.455) 3.7 (0.321) DLE 3.5 (0.355) 3.4 (0.350) 3.1 (0.353) 2.7 (0.371) Predicted values based on CRELES (N=10,043) Non-diabetics TLE 31.9 (0.652) 23.3 (0.615) 15.8 (0.583) 9.8 (0.538) DFLE 28.5 (0.539) 20.0 (0.498) 12.7 (0.460) 6.9 (0.403) DLE 3.4 (0.249) 3.3 (0.256) 3.2 (0.270) 2.8 (0.292) Diabetics TLE 28.3 (0.794) 20.2 (0.707) 13.3 (0.627) 8.0 (0.542) DFLE 24.9 (0.654) 16.9 (0.564) 10.1 (0.476) 5.2 (0.374) DLE 3.4 (0.303) 3.3 (0.306) 3.1 (0.315) 2.7 (0.332) Age 15

16 Table 6 Total life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy and disabled healthy expectancy based on Nagi limitations by age and diabetic status, Mexico, MHAS Impairment Age and sample size 50 (s.d) 60 (s.d) 70 (s.d) 80 (s.d) Self-reports (N=12,056) Non-diabetics TLE 33.0 (0.604) 24.4 (0.583) 16.7 (0.564) 10.5 (0.530) DFLE 19.1 (0.357) 12.4 (0.336) 7.3 (0.308) 3.8 (0.252) DLE 14.0 (0.429) 11.9 (0.424) 9.4 (0.420) 6.7 (0.408) Diabetics TLE 24.9 (0.923) 17.4 (0.769) 11.2 (0.640) 6.6 (0.518) DFLE 11.6 (0.531) 6.8 (0.379) 3.5 (0.255) 1.6 (0.159) DLE 13.3 (0.710) 10.6 (0.601) 7.7 (0.517) 5.0 (0.442) Predicted values based on CRELES (N=10,043) Non-diabetics TLE 32.4 (0.660) 23.8 (0.623) 16.2 (0.591) 10.1 (0.548) DFLE 18.7 (0.399) 12.1 (0.363) 7.1 (0.323) 3.6 (0.258) DLE 13.7 (0.464) 11.7 (0.448) 9.2 (0.436) 6.4 (0.421) Diabetics TLE 28.7 (0.819) 20.7 (0.726) 13.7 (0.649) 8.3 (0.555) DFLE 15.6 (0.485) 9.8 (0.390) 5.4 (0.307) 2.7 (0.220) DLE 13.1 (0.579) 10.9 (0.529) 8.3 (0.489) 5.6 (0.440) Discussion Most studies in Latin America and the Caribbean rely on self-reported measures as a way to assess the prevalence and incidence of chronic conditions. Self-reported measures are less expensive to be collected, but their validity is usually questioned. The review of the literature shows that there are very few studies that try to identify which variables are associated with diabetes misreport (Kehoe et al. 1994, Kriegsman et al. 1996), even less using data from less developed countries (Wu, Li and Ke 2000, Goldman et al. 2003). The present paper contributes to this literature and it analyzes the demographic and social characteristics associated with diabetes misreport in two settings in Latin America and the Caribbean. Therefore, the estimated parameters are of great use for other countries lacking data on clinical diagnosis, but with available data on self-reports. Moreover, the potential usefulness of the selected models is substantial because most data sources have the necessary demographic and socioeconomic data to use them as predictive models. Another advantage of this work is that contrary to most of the previous studies, this work uses of very large samples to analyze the accuracy on diabetes self-reports. Moreover, previous studies were usually limited to particular geographic regions. Some of these studies have used medical records to validate their self-reported measures, but the availability of medical records is usually limited to a selective population. Others have used diagnostic examinations, medical records or physician s records as gold standard, but they are also usually limited to a small population. This study validates self-reports of diabetes data from 16