Practical Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel Part 2 of 2 (Basics and Standard Procedures) By Akram Najjar Table of Contents

Transcription

1 Practical Monte Carlo Simulation with Excel Part 2 of 2 (Basics and Standard Procedures) By Akram Najjar Table of Contents

2 Table of Contents 1.0 Introducing Part 2 of the ebook Downloading the Supporting Files Alerts, Guidelines, Exclusions and Apologies Models that Sample the Normal Distribution... 6 Workout 1: An Introduction to the Normal Distribution... 6 Workout 2: Animating the Normal Distribution... 9 Workout 3: Sample the Normal Distribution by Inversion Workout 4: Equipment Costing - NORMAL Distribution Workout 5: Weighted Index Scoring Model (NORMAL) Models that Sample the Triangular Distributions Workout 6: The TRIANGULAR Distribution in Excel Workout 7: Net Present Value (TRIANGULAR) Workout 8: NPV - NORMAL vs. TRIANGULAR Distribution Models that Sample the BetaPERT Distribution Workout 9: Animation and Inverse of BetaPERT Distribution Workout 10: Equipment Costing (TRIANGULAR vs. BetaPERT) Workout 11: Duration of Batch Production (NORMAL+BETA) Simulate Project Schedules (CPM and PERT) Workout 12: Simulation of a 14 Task Project s Critical Path (UNIFORM) Workout 13: Simulation of a 14 Task Project s Critical Path (BetaPERT) Models that Sample the Binomial Distribution and its Relatives Workout 14: Animate the BINOMIAL Distribution Workout 15: Bid for Minimarket Shelves (BINOMIAL) Workout 16: Hotel Bookings with Upgrades (BINOMIAL) Models that Sample the Geometric and the Negative Binomial Distributions Workout 17: The GEOMETRIC Distribution

3 Workout 18: Interviewing Passengers - GEOMETRIC Distribution Workout 19: Animate and Invert the Negative Binomial Distribution Workout 20: Door to Door Salesman (NEGATIVE BINOMIAL) Simulate Acceptance Sampling Plans Workout 21: The Hypergeometric Distribution Workout 22: How to Prepare an OC Curve with the Binomial Distribution 146 Workout 23: The OC Curve with Different Distributions Workout 24: How to Check alpha and beta in OC Curves Workout 25: The Effect of n and c on the OC Curve Workout 26: How to Find n and c for a Sampling Plan Workout 27: Other Acceptance Sampling Indicators: AOQ, ANS and ATI Workout 28: The OC Curve for Double Sampling Workout 29: Average Sample Number (ASN) for Double Sampling Workout 30: Single and Double Stage Sampling with Cost Analysis Workout 31: Simulate Continuous Sampling Plans Queuing Models with Poisson and Exponential Distributions Workout 32: The Poisson Distribution Workout 33: The Exponential Distribution Workout 34: Fabric Production Policies (POISSON) Workout 35: Single Server - Truck Loading (POISSON+EXP) Workout 36: Single Server - Compare with Theoretical Formulas Workout 37: Single Server - Truck Loading with Balking (POSSON+EXP) Workout 38: Single Server - Queue Analysis Workout 39: Single Server - Categorized Arrivals and Service Times Simulate Time to Failure, Reliability and Multi-component Systems. 294 Workout 40: Survival, Reliability and Hazard Functions Workout 41: The GAMMA Distribution Workout 42: Analysis of Warranties (GAMMA)

4 Workout 43: The WEIBULL Distribution Workout 44: Reparative or Preventive Maintenance - WEIBULL Workout 45: Comparison of Failed Printers - WEIBULL Workout 46: Simulate the Reliability of Multi-Component Systems Workout 47: Boolean Logic and Multi-Component Systems Simulate Markov Chains Workout 48: The Aviary - Use Multiplication for Markov Transitions Workout 49: The Aviary - A 2x2 Markov Transition Matrix Workout 50: Market Share - A 5x5 Markov Transition Matrix Workout 51: Deaths and Absorption States in Markov Chains Workout 52: Apply Standard Form to Matrices with Absorptive States Workout 53: Simulate Trucking - Markov Appendix A: Additional Statistical Concepts Appendix B: Fundamentals of Matrices and Excel Workout 54: Matrix Operations in Excel Appendix C: Setup the VBA Sub-Runs Module Appendix D: Acronyms and Abbreviations Meet the Author

5 Workouts Workout 1: An Introduction to the Normal Distribution... 6 Workout 2: Animating the Normal Distribution... 9 Workout 3: Sample the Normal Distribution by Inversion Workout 4: Equipment Costing - NORMAL Distribution Workout 5: Weighted Index Scoring Model (NORMAL) Workout 6: The TRIANGULAR Distribution in Excel Workout 7: Net Present Value (TRIANGULAR) Workout 8: NPV - NORMAL vs. TRIANGULAR Distribution Workout 9: Animation and Inverse of BetaPERT Distribution Workout 10: Equipment Costing (TRIANGULAR vs. BetaPERT) Workout 11: Duration of Batch Production (NORMAL+BETA) Workout 12: Simulation of a 14 Task Project s Critical Path (UNIFORM) Workout 13: Simulation of a 14 Task Project s Critical Path (BetaPERT) Workout 14: Animate the BINOMIAL Distribution Workout 15: Bid for Minimarket Shelves (BINOMIAL) Workout 16: Hotel Bookings with Upgrades (BINOMIAL) Workout 17: The GEOMETRIC Distribution Workout 18: Interviewing Passengers - GEOMETRIC Distribution Workout 19: Animate and Invert the Negative Binomial Distribution Workout 20: Door to Door Salesman (NEGATIVE BINOMIAL) Workout 21: The Hypergeometric Distribution Workout 22: How to Prepare an OC Curve with the Binomial Distribution Workout 23: The OC Curve with Different Distributions Workout 24: How to Check alpha and beta in OC Curves Workout 25: The Effect of n and c on the OC Curve Workout 26: How to Find n and c for a Sampling Plan Workout 27: Other Acceptance Sampling Indicators: AOQ, ANS and ATI

6 Workout 28: The OC Curve for Double Sampling Workout 29: Average Sample Number (ASN) for Double Sampling Workout 30: Single and Double Stage Sampling with Cost Analysis Workout 31: Simulate Continuous Sampling Plans Workout 32: The Poisson Distribution Workout 33: The Exponential Distribution Workout 34: Fabric Production Policies (POISSON) Workout 35: Single Server - Truck Loading (POISSON+EXP) Workout 36: Single Server - Compare with Theoretical Formulas Workout 37: Single Server - Truck Loading with Balking (POSSON+EXP) Workout 38: Single Server - Queue Analysis Workout 39: Single Server - Categorized Arrivals and Service Times Workout 40: Survival, Reliability and Hazard Functions Workout 41: The GAMMA Distribution Workout 42: Analysis of Warranties (GAMMA) Workout 43: The WEIBULL Distribution Workout 44: Reparative or Preventive Maintenance - WEIBULL Workout 45: Comparison of Failed Printers - WEIBULL Workout 46: Simulate the Reliability of Multi-Component Systems Workout 47: Boolean Logic and Multi-Component Systems Workout 48: The Aviary - Use Multiplication for Markov Transitions Workout 49: The Aviary - A 2x2 Markov Transition Matrix Workout 50: Market Share - A 5x5 Markov Transition Matrix Workout 51: Deaths and Absorption States in Markov Chains Workout 52: Apply Standard Form to Matrices with Absorptive States Workout 53: Simulate Trucking - Markov Workout 54: Matrix Operations in Excel