Fertility, reproduction and population change in 21 st Century Europe (EURREP)
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1 Fertility, reproduction and population change in 21 st Century Europe (EURREP) Tomáš Sobotka Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital / Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences) 10 Years of Excellent Ideas Brno, Masaryk University Campus, 16 March 2017
2 My background in a nutshell Education BA+ MA: Demography & Social Demography, Charles University, Prague PhD: University of Groningen (NL), PhD thesis 2004 Employment Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences (2004+) Main research interests Low fertility, childlessness, fertility and family change, measurement, data, assisted reproduction Selected career steps Managing editor, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Research group leader (Comparative European Demography), ERC grant awarded 2011
3 ERC Starting Grant Project Fertility, reproduction and population change in 21 st Century Europe (EURREP)
4 EURREP project ( ): brief intro
5 Project team Tomas SOBOTKA (PI) PhD, University of Groningen (NL) Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA PhD student (Warsaw School of Economics) Eva BEAUJOUAN PhD, Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne INED, Paris Caroline BERGHAMMER PhD, University of Vienna Anna MATYSIAK Assistant Professor (Warsaw School of Economics) Krystof ZEMAN PhD (Charles University)
6 EURREP project: brief introduction Key research areas Theme 1: Understanding fertility change in contemporary Europe Theme 2: Fertility ideals and intentions: aggregate patterns Theme 3: Fertility, migration and population change Theme 4: Expanding and sustaining new data infrastructure Project & team info, publications, news:
7 Project: Main features, novelty Comparative perspective, between countries and between regions (also going beyond Europe) Education as a key stratifying factor in fertility and family behavior Disaggregation of total fertility by birth order components Linking theories & empirical analysis: the role of the gender revolution, labour market changes, economic recession, family instability Communication of results: Databases, Data sheets, Website (including most papers and presentations (>90)), Research Brief, Open-access publications, Press releases and Media communication Societal relevance; European population prospects Novelty, cross-cutting issues Methodology: discussing new indicators of fertility and population replacement Cross-cutting topics: Migration and population replacement; Assisted reproduction and fertility
8 Questions, issues analysed Does education continue being important determinant of fertility behavior in rich countries? Do fertility preferences differ by education? Is advancing gender revolution closely linked to family changes? How did childlessness evolve among women born in the last century? Do migrant women in Europe converge in their fertility behavior to the native women? What is the future of fertility in rich, low-fertility countries? What is the role of assisted reproduction in the trend to delayed parenthood? What is the effect of economic recession on fertility and marriage in Europe? Which family size drives the shift to very low fertility in different regions? Are family size ideals in Europe stable?
9
10 Selected highlights
11 Highlight 1: Fertility preferences: What do men and women in Europe want? 2 kids, typically ideally a boy and a girl.
12 Share of women (%) with 2-child ideal in Europe, , summary of national surveys T. Sobotka & E. Beaujouan Two is best: The persistence of twochild family ideals in Europe Population and Development Review
13 Highlight 2: Education differences Gaps between intended and actual fertility European Fertility Datasheet
14 European Fertility Datasheet
15 Highlight 3: The Great Recession and fertility in Europe Western Europe Nordic countries EU-28 Germanspeaking c. Period Total Fertility Rate in broader European regions (country averages), Central Europe Southern Europe
16 Which economic and labour market changes drove the fertility dynamics during the recession? absolute change in TFR *** *** *** *** unempl rate % long-term unempl * ** *** *** % in selfempl * %NEET * annual rate of GDP change (%) Model based on data for 259 NUTS-2 regions in EU-28 and Iceland before the recession during the recession difference A Matysiak, T Sobotka, D Vignoli The impact of the Great Recession on Fertility in Europe Forthcoming Working Paper
17 Highlight 4: The future fertility in low-fertility world
18 Projected Total Fertility Rate in 2050 Low-fertility countries with population > 20 mil. Number of countries UN WPP 2015 ( ) National Stat. Offices (2050) WIC experts (2050) < Projected TFR in 2050 Main/medium variants of population projections by United Nations (UN), National Statistical Offices (NSO) and expertbased projections of the Wittgenstein Centre (WiC)
19 Project impact on my & my colleagues career
20 Great ability to team up with other colleagues & collaborate Lesthaeghe Burkimsher KU Mayer Rosina (Belgium) (Switzerland) (Yale & Berlin) (Uni Milan) Castro Martin Murphy Frejka Goldstein Cavalli M. Choe (Madrid) (LSE) (USA) (Uni Berkeley) De Rose Aassve ((East-West Centre) (Uni Rome) (Bocconi Uni, Milan) Wilson Iacovou te Velde (Uni Oxford) (Uni Essex & Cambridge) (the Netherlands) Basten Testa Stephany ReCap Mills (Uni Oxford) Grunow Spielauer (Uni Oxford) (Frankfurt) (Stat. Canada) Nitsche Buber K. Fliegenschnee (COUPFER) Neuwirth Sobotka Beaujouan Zeman Jaschinski Philipov Riederer (Fam. Inst, Vienna) Zartler (Uni Vienna) Berghammer Matysiak Brzozowska Mynarska Krivanek Vobecka (ex-vid) Campos de Lima Fent di Giulio (UNICAMP, Sao Paulo) EURREP Winkler-Dworak Neels Vignoli Muttarak FamSoc (Uni Antwerp) van Bavel Ocello Rossier M Klesmant Petrucci Potancokova Styrc Pailhe (Uni Leuven) Vitali Tocchioni Rybinska Shkolnikov Toulemon Brown (Uni Florence) Goujon Rytel Jdanov Solaz Berrington M Stipkova (Uni Warsaw) Andreev (INED, Paris) Ni Bhrolchain (Uni Plzen) Jasilioniene Baranowska Lyons-Amos Nathan Researchers Jasilionis (Uni Warsaw, Umea) J. Stone Weziak-Bialowolska (Uni Montevideo) BLUE ECD research group (current & ex MPIDR, Rostock) Pereli-Harris (JRS, Ispara (IT)) Bernardi RED VID M. Kreyenfeld (current, ex Uni Southampton) (Uni Lausanne) BLACK "Rest of the world" (MPIDR) Eisenbrey (Yeshiva Uni, NYC) Brueckner R Castro (NYU Abu Dhabi) (Uni of Chile)
21 My colleagues career: Completing PhD research (Z Brzozowska, Warsaw School of Economics) Reaching Habilitation (A Matysiak, Warsaw School of Economics) My career Research visibility 2013: Becoming a research group leader at the Vienna Institute of Demography 2016: Elected council member, European Association for Population Studies 2017: Allianz European Demographer Award Career position offers, editorship offers
22 Selected Challenges
23 Institutional support at home/host institution Bureaucracy Burden of financial reporting and bookkeeping Audits can be strict Rules can be made more complicated by the host institution Need for excellent admin. staff! Work & travel records Stipulated by ERC rules + rules of the host institution Might be unnecessarily complex (lack of trust) and at times obscure Travel and work: things you are not supposed to do Consider not working 100% on the project Need to focus Team dynamics
24 Outreach
25 Data, texts, graphics, rankings & info on European fertility and population trends
26 European Fertility Datasheet 2015 Online version: Data, featured highlights & analyses, ranking charts, maps, and expanded documentation
27 Research presented here was funded by the European Research Council under the European Union s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ ) / ERC Grant agreement n (EURREP). EURREP website:
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