Key Developments in Australian Lamb Production. November 2011

Transcription

1 Key Developments in Australian Lamb Production November 2011

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6 One thing I would like to give back.

7 Overview What MLA is What our sheep markets are doing What are our R&D priorities Sheep Genetics and Genomics Sheep CRC eating Quality

8 Who are we MLA is: producer-owned company with more than 47,500 members service provider for beef, sheepmeat and goatmeat supply chains We spend around $24.5M on Southern Beef and Sheep RD&E

9 200 million head Australian sheep flock f 13f 15f Source: ABS, MLA forecasts 31 March until 1999, 30 June from 2000

10 Lamb prices at record levels $ % increase in past 15 yrs 170% increase in past 3 yrs $ $ $ $82.47 $80.00 $74.33 $ $64.82 $69.62 $67.67 $65.90 $65.55 $/hd $ $/kg $40.00 $ $32.79 $29.88 $30.37 $24.10 $ $ /97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 0 Ave $/lamb (Meat value only) Ave $/kg (meat value only)

11 250 Index of real commodity prices index ( =100) wheat beef lamb wool e Source: ABARE

12 1600 A$/kg Eastern Market Indicator Wool prices Source: Australian Wool Exchange

13 25 million head Lamb slaughter f 13f 15f Source: ABS, MLA forecasts f = forecast

14 Lamb production and 600 '000 tonnes cwt carcase weight production carcase weight kg/head f 13f 15f 15 Source: ABS, MLA forecasts f = forecast

15 Lamb consumption and retail price 300 '000 tonnes cwt consumption retail price A /kg retail weight f 13f 15f 0 Source: ABS, ABARE, MLA forecasts f = forecast

16 Australian lamb exports exports ('000 tonnes swt) % of production exports % production f 13f 15f 0 Source: DAFF volumes, ABS values, MLA forecasts f = forecast

17 Lamb exports to the Middle East '000 tonnes swt volume value A$ million f 12f Source: DAFF volumes, ABS values, MLA forecasts f = forecast 0

18 What lies ahead for Sheep? Animal Welfare More competition from Grain Labour Few Drenches Environmental footprint and Carbon Integrated genetic and genomic information Terms of trade (More kg/ha) Eating Quality Systems Nutritional value of meat Lean Meat Yield Mature ewe size

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20 What can we do in Sheep Concentrate on management ~ which means change business and production Concentrate on genetics for both meat and wool Focus on the consumer and what they require

21 Genetic changes in Australian sheep flocks

22 Sheep Genetics National genetic evaluation program for sheep in Australia Lamb production Wool production Launched on November 2005 Common genetic language Merging of several Merino databases Research and development resource

23 Sheep Genetics products LAMBPLAN Terminal sire (483 flocks) Across flock since 1995 Across breed since 2001 Maternal (112 flocks) Across flock since 1995 MERINOSELECT across flock Merino only (174 flocks) Other analyses NSIP - US sheep analysis (84 flocks) Australian Dohne Breeders Association (83 flocks) Kidplan (Aus. Goat analysis)

24 New animals / year

25 LAMBPLAN Terminal Breeds BREED ANIMALS / YEAR POLL DORSET 43,611 WHITE SUFFOLK 37,546 DORPER 10,084 SMALL BREEDS 4,042 SUFFOLK 3,594 COMPOSITE 2,949 TEXEL 2,412 COOLALEE 1,541

26 Current progress Terminals Genetic Gain in PWWT(kg) for Australian Terminal Sires Genetic Standard Dev = 2.61 PWWt (kg) Meat Elite YSP SuperWhites YSP Australian Terminal Sires Year of birth

27 Current progress Terminals Genetic Gain in Carcase Plus for Australian Terminal Sires 180 Genetic Standard Dev = Carcase Plus Meat Elite YSP SuperWhites YSP Australian Terminal Sires Year of birth

28 Current Progress Terminals Average inbreeding coefficient for Australian Terminal Sires 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Inbreeding coefficient 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% Meat Elite YSP SuperWhites YSP Australian Terminal Sires 0.50% 0.00% Year of birth

29 Current Progress Maternals Genetic Gain in Border $ Index for Australian Border Leicesters Border $ Index ($ per ewe joined) $uperborder$ Border Leicester Year of birth

30 Impact of the Information Nucleus Cooperative Research Centre for Sheep Industry Innovation

31 The Genetic Resource of a lifetime

32 100 sires/5000 dams, range of production systems 5 years (15,000 slaughter lambs)

33 INF breed makeup Terminal Maternal Merino x Poll Dorset 7 x White Suffolk + Tex, Suff, Hamp 22 x Border Leicester 13 x Merino 8 x Poll Merino x Poll Dorset 13 x White Suffolk + Tex, Suff, S th dn,idf, EF 16 x Border Leicester 33 x Merino 16 x Poll Merino x Poll Dorset 12 x White Suffolk + Tex, Suff, S th dn, etc 5 x Border Leicester 5 x Dohne, 5 x SAMM 5 x Coopworth 5 x Corriedale 24 x Merino 16 x Poll Merino x Poll Dorset 13 x White Suffolk + Tex, Suff, S th dn, etc 5 x Border Leicester 5 x Dohne, 5 x SAMM 5 x Coopworth 5 x Corriedale 10 x Dorper* 20 x Merino 16 x Poll Merino x Poll Dorset 12 x White Suffolk + Tex, Suff, S th dn, 5 x Border Leicester 5 x Dohne, 5 x SAMM 5 x Coopworth 5 x Corriedale 10 x Dorper* 18 x Merino 18 x Poll Merino So far. 172 sires 132 sires 175 sires 33

34 Tailored for the sheep industry Terminal Maternal Merino Meat WWT, PWT, PEMD, PFAT, Skin Value WWT, PWT, PEMD, PFAT, Skin Value WWT, YWT, YEMD, YFAT Skin Value Wool GFW FD, CFW, Crimp, SS, SL, Colour, Type Easy Care Sheep BWT, WEC, Temp BWT, MWWT, WEC, NLW, Temp, Wrinkle WEC, NLW, Temp, Wrinkle, Horn/Poll 34

35 Outcomes from key programs Improving reproductive rate Improving yield and eating quality Genomic implementation

36 Impact of Reproductive rate 10% increase in 25% of Australian ewe flock 1 Million lambs $120 Million

37 Impact of LMY Correlated change in LMY =0.15% 45,000 Terminal rams sold with LAMBPLAN 2.25 Million lambs kgs LMY $7.4 Million

38 Impact of Eating Quality MSA accredited processors 2.5 Million lambs 5% increase in EQ 5c in retail value (actual is around 25c) $1.125 per lamb $2.813 M

39 Maternal genetics blueprint Weaning % NLW, LE, BWT Growth rate WWT, PWT Carcase $$ PFAT, PEMD LMY Wool $$ GFW, FD, SS, SL Mature ewe size AWT Worm resistance WEC

40 The Maternal Profit Drivers? Lambing rate (weaning %) 54 % Growth of lambs 16 % Carcase compliance 16 % Ewe wool production 14 %

41 Things you can t see are often the most important in sheep Reproductive rates Maternal performance Fat and muscle Internal parasite resistance (worms)

42 Reproduction rate (NLW) in Maternals Adult Weight (AWT) vs NLW (%) (Sires linked to CRC information Nucleus) Adult Weight (kg) % -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% -3 Maternal Merino NLW (%)

43 We can get growth and maintain birth weight Growth rate (PWWT) vs Birth Weight (Sires linked to CRC information Nucleus) PWWT (kg) Maternal Terminal Merino BWT (kg)

44 Maintaining birth weight will help lambing ease and reduce mortality Lambing Ease vs Birth Weight (Sires linked to CRC information Nucleus) lambing Ease (%) Maternal Terminal Merino BWT (kg)

45 Measure adult weight to limit mature size Growth rate (PWWT) vs Adult Weight (AWT) (Sires linked to CRC information Nucleus) PWWT (kg) Maternal Merino Adult Weight (kg)

46 High nutrition

47 High nutrition Low nutrition

48 Now more than ever we must KEEP focusing on the consumer

49 Consumers & Lamb lamb Beef Chicken Lamb % % % Are good for a variety of dishes Is well liked in our household It's delicious to eat Easy to cook and prepare I trust the safety of this meat Is loved by Australians Is an essential part of a healthy diet I'm proud to buy and serve this Makes healthy meals Contains a wide range of vitamins and minerals It's normally juicy and tender Is consistently high quality It's expensive Encourages the warmth of sharing and togetherness Has an irresistible aroma I m willing to pay a bit more for it Makes an everyday meal occasion a little special It's a children's favourite Good in a weight loss diet Pork Fish % % Jan-Mar 2010, Base: (n=1304)

50 Australian consumers and lamb Love the flavour of lamb (domestic market v. important) Quality - tenderness/juiciness = beef (improved 39% in 1997 vs 57% now) Health/fatness score still below beef (improved 23% in 1997 vs 45% now) 90% consumer trim salvage fat before or after cooking Still viewed as a little old fashioned They know its expensive!

51 Australian retail prices for protein 2,000 A /kg beef lamb pork chicken 1,500 1, M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M Source: ABS

52 Carcase More muscle/bone Less fat Consumer Tenderness Juiciness Flavour Eating quality pigments Retail Colour display ω3 Fats Sat Fat Fe, Zn Human Health

53 Carcase More muscle/bone Less fat Manage interactions Tenderness Juiciness Flavour Eating quality Consumer pigments Retail Colour display 40 traits (old/new) ω3 Fats Sat Fat Fe, Zn Human Health

54 Measure new & traditional meat phenotypes (10,000 lambs) Carcase Lean meat yield (bone, muscle, fat) Skin traits Glycogen, ph, fresh colour Retail colour Tenderness (shear force, connective tissue) Muscle fat phenotypes (omega 3, intramuscular fat) MSA consumer eating quality Iron, Zinc DELIVERY Info nucleus Sheep Genetics

55 Lean meat yield genetics Breeding values (ASBV s)

56 PWWT - They re Heavier! Carcase Weight 25 Merino Maternal Terminal Hot Carcase Wt (kg) - Sire Estimate kg 10units Sire PWWT-ASBV 56

57 PWWT - More bone & less fat CT Fat% CT Bone% 28 Merino Maternal Terminal 18.5 Merino Maternal Terminal CT Fat percentage- Sire Estimate CT Bone percentage- Sire Estimate Sire PWWT-ASBV Sire PWWT-ASBV 57

58 PWWT - More bone & less fat Targeting a larger mature size? CT Fat% CT Bone% 28 Merino Maternal Terminal 18.5 Merino Maternal Terminal CT Fat percentage- Sire Estimate CT Bone percentage- Sire Estimate Sire PWWT-ASBV Sire PWWT-ASBV 58

59 PWWT - More bone & less fat Targeting a larger mature size? But CT no Fat% increase CT Bone% Merino Maternal Terminal CT Fat percentage- Sire Estimate in LMY%! CT Bone percentage- Sire Estimate 16.5 Merino Maternal Terminal Sire PWWT-ASBV Sire PWWT-ASBV 59

60 PFAT decreases fat wt 28 Effect CT Fat percentage - Sire Estimate 27 focused focused 26 on the on the 25 loin! loin! CT Fat% Merino Maternal Terminal Sire PFAT-ASBV CT Fat -3.5% 3.6% Shortloin Fat Wt -9% GR tissue depth - 17% C-site Fat depth - 25% 5 th Rib Fat depth - 18% 60

61 PFAT increases muscle wt Effect Eye of Shortloin Weight (g) - Sire Estimate focused 370 on the 360 loin! Loin Weight Merino Maternal Terminal Sire PFAT-ASBV Round Wt +3.5% Topside Wt +0% Loin Wt +6% CT Lean% units 61

62 PEMD increases loin wt Shortloin Fat Wt 0% Eye of Shortloin Weight (g) - Sire Estimate GR tissue 370 depth +5.4% 360 C-site Fat 350 depth - 14% th Rib Fat depth 0% 320 Loin Weight Merino Maternal Terminal Sire PEMD-ASBV Round Wt +2% Topside Wt +2% Loin Wt +7.3% 7.3% CT lean% units 62

63 Carcase Traits Summary! Growth (PWWT) - For heavier carcase Reduced fat depth (PFAT) - For leaner carcase Eye muscle depth (PEMD) - For more muscle where you need it! All doing their job

64 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Heritability of key Sheep traits YFD YSS YSL YCFW BWT PWT PEMD PFAT NLW WEC LE BWR Yield DR% IMF Shear Force Trait Heritability

65 Genetic Correlations Trait EMA LMY DR% IMF LMY 0.38 DR% IMF Shear

66 Eating quality Measuring Shear force and IMF But what does shear force and IMF mean to consumers Will they pay more

67 MSA consumer testing of Lamb Tenderness (0 100) Juiciness Liking of flavour Overall liking Unsatisfactory Good every day Better than every day Premium (each cut eaten by 10 untrained consumers)

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69 Consumer testing program Consumer testing 210 sires x 2 cuts Completed testing 97sires 2,467 consumers used

70 MSA Lamb Grade cuts into: 2* - Unsatisfactory 3* - Good every day 4* - Better than every day 5* - Premium

71 Willingness to pay data (Price relative to 3*, n = number consumers) n Ungrade 3* 4* 5* Mean 1,858 49% 100% 147% 200% Australian consumers - lamb

72 Consumer tenderness (grills) 16 points Topside 12 points Loin

73 Consumer tenderness (grills) 3* 4* 5* Topside Loin

74 Remember - this is with optimal processing All carcases had e-stimulation Even had ph6 as a covariate Product aged for 5 days

75 EQ s c o r e Intramuscular fat (%) - Longissimus Tender Flavour Overall Liking Intramuscular fat (%)

76 EQ s c o r e Shear Force (5 days) - Longissimus Tender Flavour Overall Liking Shear Force (5 days; Newton)

77 Selection for LMY decreased Tenderness score Muscle BV Fat BV More muscle Less fat

78 Consumer tenderness (grills) 16 points Topside 12 points Loin

79 Consumer tenderness (grills) 3* 4* 5* Topside Loin

80 The future for eating quality We now have good measurements (genetics) of characters that influence eating quality Genetics is the key to managing eating quality once best practice lamb production is in place Eating quality will be a the new point of differentiation

81 Whole Genome Association Study Good outcome Actual BV SNP- Predicted BV 3450 animals Phenotypes & SNPs x 5 estimation Develop predictive SNP panel testing 1800 SG sires Accurate ASBV 2000 slaughter 1400 wool/reproduction Actual BV Not a good outcome SNP- Predicted BV

82 What does genomics offer 1. Ability to increase selection accuracy 2. Ability of select at younger ages reducing generation interval 3. Ability to measure difficult or hard to measure traits particularly the consumer satisfaction ones..

83 GS Terminal Sire 80% Accuracy of Breeding Value with and without GS 75% 70% 65% Accuracy (%) 60% 55% 50% 45% No GS With GS 40% 35% 30% PEMD PFAT PWWT PEMD PFAT PWWT PEMD PFAT PWWT 1. Select at Birth (pedigree only) 2. Select at Weaning (WWT + Pedigree) 3. Selection at 8 months (Full postweaning data) Trait

84 Terminal Sires Trait Growth Carcase Eating Quality Worms Repro +LE Wool value Increase Selection Accuracy Reduce generation interval Difficult or Hard to measure

85 Maternal Sires Trait Growth Carcase Eating Quality Worms Repro +LE Wool value Increase Selection Accuracy Reduce generation interval Difficult or Hard to measure

86 Difficult to measure traits The ability to manage customer satisfaction or quality traits: Eating quality and nutritional content of meat Improvements in reproductive traits (long term) Need to have clear value for implementation Difficulty in obtaining real value Overemphasis on new and novel traits

87 The need for a reference population It is agreed that the future genomic impacts will depend on a reference population Must be structured to measure those traits that can t be measured on farm Must measure animals for sufficient enough time for deleterious genes to be expresses More effort needs to be directed into those traits that influence fitness and longevity such that genomics and contribute The question is for a breeder is. Do I need to be linked and what level of linkage is enough? The question for a breed How many animals do I need in the reference population? The question for the industry How many breeds get supported and who pays?

88 Breeds in reference dataset

89 The Social Impact on Breeders Quantative genetics has been a difficult concept for many to embrace and yet there is some empathy through measurement Genomics is the next step in faith.. Larger scale and breeder groups (YSP) will benefit the most The gulf between ram breeding businesses and traditional studs will emerge The Art of Breeding will be further challenged.

90 Pl.Dorset Wh.Dorper Dorper Merino Pl.Merino NZ Pl.Dorset Dohne SAMM Future of Breeds? Wh.Suffolk Texel Suffolk Corriedale Bond Coopworth Border Leicester

91 Future engagement Trialling practical application of genomic integration (Pilot program) Likely wider release of breeding values in R&D application continuing via Information Nucleus

92 Changing the Sheep by 2015 Breeds will be less well defined and performance will be more sort after 120% lambing will be essential (an extra 30%) Growth rates of 450 grams per day Must lock in eating quality to maintain lamb value 80% of breeding will be for traits that we can t see or measure on farm

93 Conclusions If you are not excited about sheep then you should be Markets for lamb and sheep meat across the world are very good It is time to make those investments for the long term