New Features in economic Modelling of Nutrition

Transcription

1 New Features in economic Modelling of Nutrition Jacques Delincé, JRC, European Commission with inputs from I. Perez, T. Ronzon & P. Boulanger,

2 What to look at? Vincent Réquillart and Louis-Georges Soler (INRA) EAAE 2014 "Is the reduction of chronic diseases related to food consumption in the hands of the food industry?" Presentation on the link between chronic diseases, food consumption diets and public policies. The presentation provided a literature review (110 references) covering the following issues: (i)the evaluation of the potential contribution (Nb Deaths, Health budget) of changes in food characteristics to the reduction of chronic diseases and compare them with interventions focused on the consumer side; (ii) expectations from voluntary self-regulation in the food industry; (iii) firms reactions to nutritional policies (TFA, salt, sugar); (iv) the design of more effective nutritional policies targeting changes in the food supply; and (v) provided some inside of the areas in which further research is needed. The paper is available in the following link: ull.html

3 What to look at?

4 Fortified Crops: how far are they? GM crops modified for enriched nutritional content Trait description Fatty acids: Modified fatty acids content, mostly to increase Omega-3 content Phytase: Increased Phosphorus content (for feed) Amino acid, Betacarotene, Folate, Vitamins, Tryiptophan, Iron, Lycopene, Anthocyanin: Improved content of the specified nutrient Nutritive value: Specific improvement not specified Authorised crops Crop Unique identifier Event Name Maize BVLA BVLA Soybean DP-3Ø DP (HOS) Developer Biotechnology Research Institute, CAAS Develop er country CN Development stage 2 - Commercial pipeline Trait description Phytase DuPont Pioneer US 1 - Commercial crop Fatty acid + Sulfonylurea tolerance Soybean MON-877Ø5-6 MON87705 Monsanto US 2 - Commercial pipeline Soybean MON MON87769 Monsanto US 2 - Commercial pipeline Fatty acid + Glyphosate tolerance Fatty acid Crops in the regulatory pipeline Crop Unique identifier Event Name Developer Develope r country Development stage Trait description Potato not available not available CPRI IN 3 - Regulatory pipeline Amino acid Rice not available GR2R PhiRice PHIL 3 - Regulatory pipeline Betacarotene

5 Overview of nutrition policies in Europe: DG SANCO EU policy on Nutrition, Overweight and Obesity-related health issued (Strategy ) Regulation EU1169/2011 on food and nutrition labelling EU pilot project on increasing the consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables in vulnerable population groups (2013) EU action plan on Childhood obesity Emphasis on: Healthier environment (reducing risk factors), Healthier food habits Targeting populations at risk: Children, Elderly people and Pregnant Women A partnership approach: families, schools and civil society (inform and empower), Industries, retailors and agricultural sector (restrict marketing) Universities and research institutes (investigation and evaluation)

6 Overview of nutrition policies in Europe: DG DEVCO EU policy on Food Security (COM(2010) 127) EU policy on Food Assistance (COM(2010) 126) Emphasis on: availability of food, access to food, improved nutrition, and better crisis prevention and management EU's approach to Resilience (COM(2012) 582) Emphasis on the inter-linkages between Resilience and Nutrition EU Policy Framework: "Enhancing Maternal and Child Nutrition in External Assistance" (COM(2013) 141) Completes and develops the improved nutrition pillar

7 Including nutrition indicators in AgEcon models? Do Stakeholders share common questions? Consumers o Daily needs o Cost of healthy diet Food security Farmers o Regulation price o Footprint/waste Food Industry: o Consumer behaviour o Where to invest Health Environment Policy Makers o Impact on hunger, Public Health o Causality

8 The challenge for AgEcon models: from quantities to calories AGRIMONDE: Scenarios to feed the world in 2050

9 The challenge for AgEcon models: from quantities to calories Nutrition in GE/CGE models: - Focus on quantity of food consumed, not food or nutrition basket - Nutrition indicators in MAGNET (FoodSecure FP7 project).

10 The challenge for AgEcon models: our JRC experience with PE CAPRI AGLINK-COSIMO OBJECTIVE METHODOLOGY DATA Healthier diets: model a diet replacement towards higher consumption of fruits&vegs and vegetable protein Link to a detailed IO model (E3IOT) with over 400 food products to design the diets Nutrition values (calories, protein) Healthier diets: reduction in consumption of sugar and saturated fats to recommended levels world-wide Specific module mapping model commodities to those in the FBS (food balance sheets in FAOSTAT) FBS (sugar, saturated fats) SCENARIOS STATUS Shocks on human consumption in the EU Published: 2 journal papers and a EU report Shocks on human consumption in selected countries (e.g. Brazil and US) Unpublished, controversial debate for the food industry

11 Common problems Common problems: AgEcon models rely on technical coefficients Lack thresholds (e.g. minimal calorie consumption per capita) Knowledge gap on many countries (e.g. Africa) Suffer from "average" effects More specific problems: PEs lack the capacity to represent demand impacts across population distribution (just one household) CGEs lack the necessary product disaggregation (e.g. only vegetable versus animal fats in GTAP database) Necessary links to urbanization, migrations, divergent trends across groups of population not well developed in economic models

12 The way forward (I) Understand the limitation and work into further integration of models/disciplines Stochastic work needed to understand the role of nutrition thresholds Elaborate on new undernourishment indicators Avoid "slogan like" messages and publish quantitative work on linkages between price variations and food demand in food insecure places (for instance understand price-demand elasticities)