JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING

Transcription

1 SAGE LIBRARY OF COGNITIVE AND EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING VOLUME I Foundations Edited by Nick Chater tsage Los Angeles London New Delhi Singapore Washington DC

2 Contents Appendix of Sources Editor's Introduction: Fifty Years of Judgement and Decision Making Research Nick Chater xi xxi Volume I: Foundations A. Rationality 1. A Tutorial Introduction to Decision Theory 3 D. Warner North 2. The Nature and Scope of Rational-Choice Explanation 24 Jon Elster 3. Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment 37 Herbert A Simon 4. Choices, Values, and Frames 48 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 5. The Rational Analysis of Mind and Behavior 64 Nick Chater and Mike Oaksford B. Theoretical Perspectives 6. Organismic Achievement and Environmental Probability 97 Egon Brunswik 7. Man as an Intuitive Statistician 109 Cameron R. Peterson and Lee Roy Beach 8. A Perspective on Judgment and Choice: Mapping Rounded Rationality 132 Daniel Kahneman 9. Bounding Rationality to the World 173 ^ Peter M. Todd and Gerd Gigerenzer 10. Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making 195 John W. Payne, James R. Betttnan and Eric J. Johnson C. Utility 11. Value Elicitation: Is There Anything in There? 233 Baruch Fischhoff 12. Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced utility 255 Daniel Kahneman, Peter i? Wakker and Rakesh Sarin 13. "Coherent Arbitrariness": Stable Demand Curves without 277 Stable Preferences Dan Ariely, George Loewenstein and Drozen Prelec 14. Lottery Winners and Accident Victims: Is Happiness Relative? 302 Philip Brickman, Dan Coates and Ronnie Janqff-Bulman

3 vi Contents 15. Dedsion and Experience Why Dont We Choose What 316 Makes Us Happy? Christopher K. Hsee and Beid Hastie 16. Nonconsequentialist Decisions Jonathan Baron Volume H: Individual Decision Making A, Decision Making The Theory of Decision Making Ward Edwards 18. Elimination by Aspects: A Theory of Choice Amos Tversky 19. Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem 6/ Daniel Kahneman, Jack L Knetsch and Richard K Thaler 20. What a Speaker's Choice of Frame Reveals: Reference Points, 85 Frame Selection, and Framing Effects CraigR.M McKenzie and Jonathan D. Nelson 21. Reason-Based Choice 98 Eldar Shaftr, Itamar Simonson and Amos Tversky The Construction of Preference Paul Slovic B. Decisions under Risk 23. The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice 137 Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman 24. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk 152 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky 25. The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without Trade-Oñs 180 ^ Eduard Brandstätter, Gerd Gigerenzer and Ralph Hertwig 26. Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in 227 Risky Choice Ralph Hertwig, Greg Barron, Elke U. Weber and Ido Erev 27. Humans Rapidly Estimate Expected Gain in Movement Planning 238 Julia Trommershäusex Michael & Landy and Laurence X Maloney C. Decisions and Time 28. Preference Reversals Due to Myopic Discounting of Delayed Reward 253 Kris N, Ktby and K J. Herrnstein 29. Temporal Construal 265 Yaacov Trope and Nira Liberman 30. The Red and the Black: Mental Accounting of Savings and Debt 303 Drozen Prelec and George Loewenstein

4 viii Contents 47. The Naïve Intuitive Statistician: A Naïve Sampling Model of 372 Intuitive Confidence Intervals Peter Juslin, Anders Winman and Patrik Hansson 48. The Process-Performance Paradox in Expert Judgment: 421 How Can Experts Know So Much and Predict So Badly? Colin E Camerer and Eñe J. Johnson Volume IV: Interactive and Group Processes A. Interactive Decision Making 49. Some Experimental Games 3 Merrill At ñood 50. Anomalies: Cooperation 24 Robyn M. Dawes and Richard H. Thaler 51. The Evolution of Cooperation 34 Robert Axelrod and William D. Hamilton 52. The Illusion of Morality as Self-interest: A Reason to Cooperate 48 in Social Dilemmas Jonathan Baron 53. Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in 60 Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria Ido Erev andmvin E. Roth 54. An Experimental Analysis of Ultimatum Bargaining 101 Werner Güth, Rolf Schmittberger and Bernd Schwarze B. Judgement and Decision Making in Groups 55. Bias in Judgment: Comparing Individuals and Groups 121 Norbert L Kerr, Robert J. MacCoun and Geoffrey J? Kramer 56. Group Polarization: A Critical Review and Meta-Analysis 178 Daniel J. Isenberg 57. Not Me or Thee But We: The Importance of Group Identity 200 in Eliciting Cooperation in Dilemma Situations: Experimental Manipulations Robyn At Dawes, Mphons J.C. Van de Kragt and John At Orbell 58. Interactive Team Reasoning: A Contribution to the Theory of 212 Co-operation Michael Bacharach 59. The Judgment Policies of Negotiators and the Structure of 238 Negotiation Problems JetyL L Mumpower C* Decision Making, Economics, and Society 60. An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior 267 Vernon L Smith

5 Contents ix 61. Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an 301 Artificial Cultural Market Matthew J. Salganik, Peter Sheridan Dodds and Duncan J. Watts 62. "Economic Man" in Cross-Cultural Perspective: Behavioral 307 Experiments in 15 Small-Scale Societies Joseph Henrich, Robert Boyd, Samuel Bowles, Colin Camerer, Ernst Fehr, Herbert Gintis, Richard McElreath, Michael ALvard, Abigail Ban; Jean Ensminger, Natalie Smith Henrich, Kim Hill Francisco Gil-White, Michael Gurven, Frank W Marlowe, John Q. Patton and David Tracer 63. Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice 342 Richard Thaler 64. Choice in Context: Tradeoff Contrast and Extremeness Aversion 361 Itamar Simonson and Amos Tversky 65. Neural Predictors of Purchases 386 Brian Knutson, Scott Rick, G. Elliott Wimmer, Drozen Prelec and George Loewenstein 66. Inferences of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes 402 Alexander Todorov, Anesu N. Mandisodza, Amir Goren and Crystal C. Hall