Accounting for cognitive and perceptual biases in computational models of human movement

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1 Accounting for cognitive and perceptual biases in computational models of human movement Thomas J. Pingel Department of Geography University of California, Santa Barbara February 10, 2012 Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas

2 My Focus Science that helps us understand and visualizations that help support spatial decision making.

3 This includes elements of: Spatial Strategy Navigation Geospatial reasoning Cognitive science Methodology Open source programming Nonparametric statistics Visual analytics Geovisualization Automation LIDAR and feature extraction TINs and other terrainrelated data structures Immersion Dynamism & Interaction

4 Cognitive and Perceptual Biases & Patterns of Movement How do human biases in slope perception affect patterns of movement in mountainous terrain? What role do vision and spatial extent play in determining how humans search an area? What role do strategic disposition and attitudes toward risk play in causing asymmetric patterns of pedestrian movement?

5 The spatial pattern of movement for humans in mountainous areas is different than it is in less rugged terrain. This is because travel on slopes is slower, requires more effort, and is generally more dangerous than walking on level ground.

6 The impact of a slope depends somewhat on the direction of travel. For example, pedestrian travel on slopes is asymmetric with respect to time. Tobler s Hiking Function kph = 6 { exp -3.5 * abs (dh/dx ) }

7 Incidentally, it is probably time to update the hiking function using GPS measurements.

8 Humans greatly overestimate geographic slope. Slope / Cost Translation Uphill / Downhill Energy, fatigue, safety Abilities, limitations of agents Anticipated vs. actual costs Following data presented in Proffitt et al. (1995).

9 Decisions can be modeled by shortest-path algorithms operating on cost-transformed slope values. A slope raster is often the basis for the cost surface.

10 It is important to distinguish between linear and areal slope. I think linear slope is more important, though both matter.

11 Observations of existing tracks and trails provide frequency distributions of selection patterns. Routes may be asymmetric but paths are not.

12 The frequency distributions are transformed to cost functions. The cost functions are applied to the linear slope values.

13 The type of cost transformation function greatly affects the location of the selected path.

14 The method is adaptable to different agents and constraints, and seems to perform well at a variety of scales. Model of Rory Stewart s walk in Places in Between.

15 I am also very interested in digital navigation systems. How do people choose routes? Preferences Heuristics Strategies How can we help them find those routes? Profile development Expressed Revealed Algorithms Visualizations & Interactions

16 If existing methods generate least cost paths (in terms of time or distance) why would we want to modify that? 1. Purely economic concerns don t capture the full range of criteria that go into route selection. 2. These other criteria are important for overall utility.

17 Preference rankings depend on mode of travel.

18 Characteristics of the traveler - in this example, sex matter as well.

19 A clearer concept of strategy could be helpful in helping us ask the right questions and to interpret the data. Strategy has many meanings in the literature. Style Route vs. Orientation (or Landmark vs. Survey) (Lawton, 1994) Explicit Techniques Look-back strategy, edge following (Cornell, Heth & Rowat, 1992) Reliance on external aids Maps or knowledge (Hutchins, 1995; Ishikawa et al., 2008) Digital vs. analog Task-related Search vs. Access (Passini, 1992)

20 I think the idea of a strategic disposition is useful. Strategic disposition reflects the degree to which an individual cares about reasoning strategically about a problem, without necessarily suggesting what strategy that individual might use. It is important to distinguish between strategy, strategic disposition, and performance.

21 How can we measure strategic disposition? Self-report is crucial Not directly observable Instrument 40 initial items 101 participants Factor analysis 10 Items Affinity, frequency, latency, externalizability, & conditional thinking Strategic Disposition Index 1) I enjoy playing games that involve a great deal of strategy. 2) I am not very good at finding the shortest or quickest route to a place. 3) When driving, I consciously try to find the best route for the circumstances. 4) I don't often play games that involve a great deal of strategy. 5) When driving, I don't typically think about my route. 6) I enjoy activities that involve strategic thinking. 7) When walking, I don't consciously try to find the best route for the circumstances. 8) I am not very good at explaining the strategies I use. 9) I often think about route planning in a way that I would characterize as strategic. 10)When parallel parking on a street, I am careful to park so that as many vehicles as possible can fit in a given block of spaces.

22 The distribution of SDI is fairly normal.

23 Men tend to a report a higher SDI than women.

24 Search Strategy Idea from a series of articles Tellevik, 1992 Hill et al.,1993 Gaunet & Thinus-Blanc, 1996 Blindfolded or blind subjects search for objects in a small room Search Strategies Perimeter Gridline (aka Parallel) Memorization Strategies Object-to-wall Object-to-home Object-to-object (Hill et al., 1993)

25 Finding the Invisible Animals Audio cues Movement tracking Assessment Object learning Route efficiency

26 Source: Montello, D. R. (1993). Scale and Multiple Psychologies of Space. In: Frank and Campari (Eds.), Spatial Information Theory for GIS. We reason about space differently, depending on the scale (or extent) in question. Figural Projectively smaller than the body Pictoral and Object subspaces Vista Larger than the body Can be apprehended without locomotion Environmental Requires locomotion Learned from direct experience Geographical Learned through symbolic representations

27 Incidentally, we also think about inside spaces and outside spaces differently. Creating immersive visualizations that support better inside/outside reasoning is one goal of my current project.

30 Gridline searches, localizations, and object-to-object visits

31 There was a strong spatial signature, supporting the idea of decreasing marginal costs.

32 There was no association between gridline search propensity and strategic disposition index. Perhaps there is a difference between being systematic and being strategic. There is evidence to suggest that strategists differ substantially on the level of detail in their plans.

33 Attitude toward risk represents another kind of meta-strategy that influences wayfinding. Some people like to play it safe, willing to sacrifice a worse mean result for a lower variability.

34 Kahneman and Tversky explored this in the context of Prospect Theory. Would you take: (a) a sure $20 or (b) a chance at $40 or nothing

35 Wayfinding questions are somewhat trickier to frame. Mode of travel, mean, variance, and order effects are all important considerations. People who gamble in walking contexts are also likely to gamble in driving contexts, but the expression varies.

36 Let s use the concepts to shed some light on route asymmetry. Route asymmetry happens when people take a different route when traveling from A to B than they do when traveling from B to A. The same criteria lead to different expressions; local differences and perspective produce different spatial patterns of movement.

Route Asymmetry Study Design Seven legs between four waypoints Random order according to several criteria Flagpole / Psychology excluded Five unique

37 Route Asymmetry Study Design Seven legs between four waypoints Random order according to several criteria Flagpole / Psychology excluded Five unique connections (Routes) Position tracked with GPS Only immediate destination known Subjects radioed for the next destination Each walk took about 25 minutes n = 65

Some gates (and Routes) showed more asymmetry than others Environmental

38 Measuring Asymmetry Binary (Same / Different) Gate Coding Major pathways & obstacles Common sequence length CHLQ, AFKP, etc. Some gates (and Routes) showed more asymmetry than others Environmental influence Usually on a subset of gates High friction sites Creation or strengthening of secondary channels

40 Individual Differences Risk-takers move through high-friction sites. Fast potentially relevant But not simple Symmetry connected to SBSOD Strategist Lawton s Orientation Strategy But not Risk-taking Fast / Simple preferences

41 Summary We can create better models of human movement if we understand their cognitive and perceptual biases. 1. Humans select routes based on more than time, distance, and effort. 2. Humans make systematic errors in the assessment of these, anyway. 3. More fundamental aspects like strategic disposition and attitudes toward risk may ultimately be more useful as classifiers.

Characterizing the Role of Strategic Disposition and Orientation to Risk in Wayfinding

Characterizing the Role of Strategic Disposition and Orientation to Risk in Wayfinding Thomas J. Pingel University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA Abstract