The International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project. Geoffrey T. Fong, Ph.D. University of Waterloo

Transcription

1 The International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Geoffrey T. Fong, Ph.D. University of Waterloo Meeting the Challenge of Chronic Diseases in China University of Waterloo May 16,

2 Tobacco is the most effective agent of death ever developed and deployed on a worldwide scale. John Seffrin, President, American Cancer Society and UICC 2

3 Smoking Prevalence in Canada Smoking Prevalence in Canada (15 years +) Males Females 40 % Year 3

4 The Really Big Picture 4

5 Some Statistics on Global Tobacco Use 1.1 billion people smoke 82% live in low-and middle-income countries 500 million will die of tobacco-related causes 20th Century: 100 million tobacco-related deaths 21st Century: 1 billion tobacco-related deaths 5 million will die this year By 2020: 10 million will die/year WHO: Leading preventable cause of death and disability in the world 5

6 China and Smoking About 350 million people smoke Close to 2/3 of adult men About 4% of adult women Over one million tobacco-related deaths this year 6

7 Increase in Smoking-Attributable Deaths 1990 to 2020 Latin American and Caribbean +300% Established Market Economies +18% Sub- Saharan Africa +200% Formerly Socialist Economies of Europe +120% India Middle +1400% Eastern Crescent +700% In 2020: 2.2M deaths China +175% Other Asia and Islands +250% Murray and Lopez (1997): Global Burden of Disease Study 7

8 The Global View of the Tobacco Industry Document from 1989: Tobacco use in the developed nations will trend down slightly through the end of the century, while in the developing countries use could rise by about 3% annually. A bright picture indeed! Not a smoke-free society, but continued growth for the tobacco industry. 8

9 Tobacco Industry and China Rene Scull, VP-Philip Morris Asia (1986): No discussion of the tobacco industry in the year 2000 would be complete without addressing what may be the most important feature on the landscape, the China market. In every respect, China confounds the imagination. Rothmans (1990): Thinking about Chinese smoking statistics is like trying to think about the limits of space. 9

10 The World Responds to the Growing Tobacco Epidemic : negotiations for an international response to the growing tobacco threat Framework Convention on Tobacco Control 10

11 FCTC: Unanimously Adopted May

12 Demand Reduction Provisions of the FCTC More prominent warning labels Elimination of misleading descriptors Bans/restrictions on advertising, promotion, sponsorship Protection from exposure to tobacco smoke Higher taxes Support for cessation Education, communication, public awareness 12

13 The FCTC is an Evidence-Based Treaty Foreword: The FCTC is an evidence-based treaty that reaffirms the right of all people to the highest standard of health. Preamble: Determined to promote measures of tobacco control based on current and relevant scientific, technical and economic considerations... 13

14 Article 8 Protection from exposure to tobacco smoke 2. Each Party shall adopt and implement in areas of existing national jurisdiction as determined by national law and actively promote at other jurisdictional levels the adoption and implementation of effective legislative, executive, administrative and/or other measures, providing for protection from exposure to tobacco smoke in indoor workplaces, public transport, indoor public places and, as appropriate, other public places. What does effective mean? 14

15 Facing the Challenge Tobacco deaths (millions) Estimated cumulative tobacco deaths What must we do to flatten the curve? Population-level interventions Prime example: FCTC policies Year World Bank. Curbing the epidemic: Governments and the economics of tobacco control. World Bank Publications, p80. 15

16 Potential of Policies to Flatten the Curve Tobacco deaths (millions) Estimated cumulative tobacco deaths Impact of policies depends on factors including: Intervention date Effect size Year World Bank. Curbing the epidemic: Governments and the economics of tobacco control. World Bank Publications, p80. 16

17 FCTC: Challenges on the Road from Ratification to Implementation Guidance in development of effective policies Current lack of evidence base Lack of evaluation data in some policy domains Virtually all data from high-income countries Relatively weak study designs There are other sources of information available to policymakers in the absence of good evidence: the tobacco industry 17

18 Tobacco use is unlike other threats to global health. Infectious diseases do not employ multinational public relations firms. There are no front groups to promote the spread of cholera. Mosquitoes have no lobbyists. WHO Zeltner Report (2000) 18

19 Tobacco Industry: Distorting Science Creation of front groups to cast doubt on the evidence of the harms of smoking and then of second-hand smoke Payment to neutral scientists for results-directed research Creation of entire research programs to generate a body of scientific and technical knowledge [through research] undertaken by whitecoats. 19

20 JunkScience.com founded by a front group created by Philip Morris in 1993 To cover up the association with PM, the front group aimed to link scientific studies that cast smoking in a bad light with "broader questions about government research and regulations" - such as "global warming", "nuclear waste disposal" and "biotechnology". 20

21 Doubt is our product. 21

22 The International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Canada United States Australia United Kingdom Ireland Thailand Malaysia South Korea China Mexico Uruguay France New Zealand India Netherlands Sudan Germany Bangladesh Russia 22

23 ITC Survey Research Team Canada Geoffrey T. Fong Mary E. Thompson Christian Boudreau K. Stephen Brown Sharon Campbell David Hammond Paul W. McDonald Changbao Wu Mark P. Zanna Thailand Buppha Sirirassamee Warangkana Polprasert Philip Guest Steve Hamann Prakit Vateesatogkit Korea Hong Gwan Seo Yoo-Seock Cheong Seung-Kwon Myung Wonkyong (Beth) Lee United States K. Michael Cummings Gary A. Giovino Andrew Hyland Richard J. O Connor Frank J. Chaloupka Fritz L. Laux Hana Ross Maansi Travers Malaysia Maizurah Omar Foong Kin Rahmat Awang Mexico James Thrasher Uruguay Marcelo Boado Eduardo Bianco Australia Ron Borland Mohammad Siahpush Melanie Wakefield Hua Yong David Young New Zealand Nick Wilson George Thomson France Sylviane Ratte Pierre Arwidson François Beck Bangladesh* Nigar Nargis Netherlands* Marc Willemsen Russia* Marine Gambaryan * ITC Surveys currently in development United Kingdom Gerard Hastings Ann McNeill Louise Hassan Anne Marie Mackintosh Fiona Harris China Jiang Yuan Yang Yan Feng Guoze Germany Martina Pötschke-Langer Sven Schneider India* Prakash Gupta Dhirendra Sinha Prabhat Jha Sudan* Asma Elsony 23

24 The ITC Surveys Country Mode N (smokers) N (others) Canada 2,000 United States 2,000 United Kingdom 2,000 Australia 2,000 Ireland/Scotland 2, NS Thailand 2,000 1,000 Youth Malaysia 2,000 1,000 Youth South Korea 1,000 China 5,600 1,400 NS Mexico 1,000 Uruguay 1,000 New Zealand 2,000 France 1, NS Germany 1,700 1,000 NS Sudan 6,000? 2,000 SL,NS Bangladesh 3,000? 1,000 SL,NS India 12,000? 2,000 SL,NS 24

25 Research Goals of the ITC Project Goal 1: Rigorous evaluation of national-level tobacco control policies of the FCTC: Goal 2: To understand how and why these policies work (if they work) Policy? Behavior What s inside the black box? Goal 3: Disseminate findings to policymakers Build evidence base for FCTC Promote evidence-based policies 25

26 ITC Evaluation of FCTC Policies (Partial List) Warning labels UK (2003): Text only Thailand (2006): Graphic Australia (2006): Graphic Canada (2008): Graphic, Rd 2 Other countries: Graphic China (2008/9): Text only Light/mild UK (2003) Australia (2005) Advertising/Promotion UK (2003): Comprehensive Thailand (2006): POS bans Smoke-free Ireland (2004) Scotland (2005) US, Canada: sub-national France (2007/2008) Germany (2007) China (partial in 2008?) Product policies Taxation UK (EU): regulation Multiple countries (ongoing) US/Canada: reduced ignition propensity All: product and product x behavior 26

27 ITC China Survey Cohort survey of 7 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Yinchuan, Shenyang 800 adult smokers and 200 non-smokers in each city (total N = 5,600 smokers, 1,400 nonsmokers) Wave 1: 2006 Wave 2 5: Annually

28 International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project http: // http: // ITC Project Research Support Core support provided by the U.S. National Cancer Institute to the Roswell Park TTURC (P50 CA111236) Additional major funding provided by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research 28

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