University of Virginia)

Transcription

1 -=FFECTS OF RAISING A,[D LOW=R!NG" THE THE LEGAL DRINKING AGE MINIMUM by the V{rginia Highway and Transportation Research c epared Under the Sponscrship of he Council opinions findings, and conclusions expressed in this (The are tho. e of the author and nor necessarily those o: report Highway & Transportation Research Council Virginia Cooperative 0rgan'za ion Sponsored Jo ntiy_ by the V " in'a (A of Highways & Transportation and Department University of Virginia) the!983 January 83-R25 VHTRC UPDATE JANUARY by Lynn Cheryl ScienZist Research Department oe Transportation Safety the sponsoring agencies.) Charlottesville, Virginia

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3 EFFECTS OF RAISING AND LOWERING THE THE LEGAL DRINKING AGE MINIMUM paper is designed to update the attached report, "The This of Lowering the Legal Drinking Age in Virginia". It gives Impact current drinking ages in the various states, describes several the on the impact of raising the legal drinking age, and re- studies examines the most current Virginia accident data for young persons. lowered drinking ages had raised the age limits, but not with back to the original ages. Very recently, New Jersey necessarily Connecticut have also raised their drinking ages, and such and is pending in Georgia, Florida, Ohio, and Tennessee. legislation Virginia, the age at which beer can be purchased in stores for In consumption was raised to 19 in The legal limit off-premise purchasing beer for on-premise consumption in restaurants and for remains at 18, and the limit for purchasing wine or liquor taverns is still 21 years. nighttime fatal crashes for states who had raised their compared age with those for states who had not. It was found drinking on the average, a state that raises the drinking age can that a 28% decrease in these fatal crashes among young persons. expect the 14 states with raised drinking ages, it was estimated that In fewer young drivers were involved in nighttime fatal crashes 380 year as a result of the change. It was also estimated that each fewer young drivers would be involved if the other 21 states 730 Maine, where the age limit was raised from 18 to 0 years, In accidents were reduced 18.6% for 18-year-old male drivers nighttime 13.9% for 19-year-old male drivers. (2) In a similar study in and where the drinking age was raised from 19 to 21, nighttime!llinois, cr shes were reduced 10.0% for 19 year olds and single-vehicle for 20 year olds.(3) Finally, in Michigan, where the age limit 7.4% UPDATE JANUARY 1983 RECENT EXPERIENCES IN OTHER STATES most current information concerning nationwide drinking The appears in Table i. By the end of 1980, 14 of the 30 states ages several studies on raising the legal drinking age Recently, been conducted. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety have would raise their legal drinking age to 21. (1)

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5 raised from 18 to 21, total alcohol related crashes decreased was for the affected group compared to what would have been ex- 31.0% the attachment to this document and are included so that the in can study them as convenient. All subsequent analyses reader old, the numbers of alcohol-related crashes after lowering years the legal drinking age were significantly higher than expected, of previous trends, while no such increase was noted from non- given crashes over the same time period (in fact, these alcohol-related age change, remained at expected levels. the same time period, the percentage of crashes which Over alcohol-related increased significantly for young persons (see were Figure i ) e \ "\ I A. years) ii.96.,-'. k "--- -" "., ' over years). " 5.04 lowering of." i. Percentage of crashes that involved Figure by age. alcohol, pected had the age not been ra±sed.(4) CURRENT VIRGINIA CRASH EXPERIENCE the attached report, Virginia accident data through 1979 In been analyzed. These data tables are updated through 1981 have based upon these tables. It can be noted from these tables are for persons 16 to 19 years old and for persons 20 to 24 that crashes were lower than expected). Alcohol- non-alcohol-related crashes for adults over 25, who were not affected by the related 17.10% (20-24 years ) 0 < i X.,",.,... years 0 age drinking Year

6 adults, the percentage of crashes that were For was going down before the age alcohol-related change and continued to go down afterwards. percentage of alcohol-related crashes for The under 16 years old was going up before persons change and continued to go up afterwards, the faster. only persons 16 to 19 years old, the percentage of For crashes was going down before the alcohol-related change, but began to increase rapidly afterwards. persons 20 to 24 years old, who were only For affected by the age change, the percentage partially alcohol-related crashes was going down before the of change. Afterwards, it began to go up, but not age the change in the drinking age had its greatest effect on Thus, under 16 and 16 to 19, in that many more of their crashes persons alcohol. It had a lesser effect on 20 to 24 year olds involved no effect on adults over 25. and ultimate measure of the impact of lowering the legal The age is how much the number of alcohol-related accidents drinking or decreased after the change. Figure 2 shows the per- increased increase in alcohol-related crashes (compared to the pre- centage in the affected age groups increased dramatically. Such drivers increased 79% among persons 20 to 24 years old, among accidents only 20 year olds were affected by the lowering of the age whom A more pronounced increase of 188% was noted for 16 to limit. year olds, all of whom were affected. Finally, a whopping 19 increase was noted for drivers under 16. This increase is 574% large, however, since 80 fewer accidents occurred artificially this group prior to within It can be seen from this figure that" fast as the percentage for persons 16 to 19 years as old. average) from 1975 to While crashes for adults age-change 25 increased only slightly, alcohol-related crashes involving over

7 6973 Ave & e the for For whi not wer Qr the a!c non Thi dri vet has (16-19 years) 188% increase 4,724 accidents.xx..-- _.- ". ' 32 inereaie --, 2. Percentage increase in alcohol- Figure accidents by age group. related Figure 3 compares the percentage inc Finally, accidents with the same figures for non-al ated for each age group. If increases in accid shes in the drinking age, then only alcohol- change under 21 should change. This, in fact persons 16 to 19 years old, alcohol-related cr persons non-alcohol-related crashes decr le to a lesser extent among persons ed essentially no differences betwee e patterns for adults over 25; nei sh in the drinking age. Final change crashes ihcreased dras ohol-re!ated age has also had a deleteriou nking young age group and that the incr y to 24 ye 20 alcohol- a n for driv ly, (574 tically than lowe er effect on s in alcohol- rease cohol-re!ated are due to ents accidents related the case. was increased ashes trends were lar old. There s nd ed e %) ri cr non-alcoholmuch after very under 16, s However, 600 i6- years Underincrease 74% 55 accidents 5OO " 24 years) 6,292 accidents '--. (2 and o.e ). zoo!." \ o-,. '7.-, ' 7(209% tincreaseo Time rel eased. Simi ther increas crashes also incre -alcohol-related would indicate that something oth s (342%). fly the legal ng dramati ased for this ashes of alcohol lity eased availabi exacerbated the situation.

8 Non- A-R Non- A-R 16 to 19 years 3. Percentage increase of alcohol-related Figure non-alcohol-related crashes by age. and Non- "\ A-R \ 5O o 300 i O i Yea 20 to 2_4 year.s 25 and older i00 i O.\ Non- ' A-R O Yearn Yearn

9 crash rates among young persons. analyses performed in this update support the conclusions The in the original report. Lowering the legal drinking age presented resulted in increasingly serious accident problems for persons has years old and younger. The recommendation made in the original 20 final note- there is no indication anywhere in Virginia One data that increasing the legal age at which beer can be crash in stores to 19 years has had any impact on the worsening purchased CONCLUSIONS that the drinking age be incrementally raised to 21 for report, alco ol-id beverages, still stands. all

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11 Involvement", Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Crash 600, Washington (1981). Watergate T. M., "The Effect of Raising the Minimum Legal Drinking Klein, on Traffic Accidents in the State of Maine" DOT-HS , Age of Program and Demonstration Evaluation, Na-tionai-Program Office tion, Washington (December 1981). (January-February 1981). REFERENCES A. F., Zador, P. L., Harris, S. L., and Karof, R. S., Williams, Effect of Raising the Legal Minimum Drinking Age on Fatal "The I Evaluation Division, National Highway Traffic Safety Administra- D. M., "Impact Analysis of the Raised Legal Drinking Maxwell, in lllinois" DOT-HS , National Program Evaluation Age National HighWAy T'r'a'f'fic Safety Administration, Division, (December 198!). Washington A. C., "Effects of the Raised Legal Drinking Age on Wagenaar, Vehicle Accidents in Michigan", HSRI Research Review_ Motor

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13 J STATISTICS FOR PERSONS 16 TO 19 YEARS OLD CRASH (EXCLUDING 1977) A-R No. N-A-R No. We re 16, ,535 17, ,406 24, ,904 22,757** I0.26* 16.43* 2,603* 20,094** 12.88" 18.80" 2,970" 30,350 i0.36* 18.25* 3,508* higher than expected given previous trends Significantly lower than expected Significantly ATTACHMENT ALCOHOL-RELATED ACCIDENT DATA BY AGE TABLE A- 1 of All Percentage A-R of Year Percentage That A-R 20, , , i. 39 i, 35,715 i0.35 * 18.04* 4,122" 31,307** 12. i0" ,310" 28,472** 13.72* 20.07* 4,529* 28,362** 14.28" 20.01" 4,724* 1981

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15 STATISTICS FOR PERSONS UNDER 16 CRASH (Excluding 1977) A-R No, N-A-R No, That. A-R Were 339 5, , , , , ,92* , , , " 8,27 155" 0,128 0,093 0,138 0, O higher than expected given previous trends Significantly lower than expected Significantly TABLE A-2 Percentage of All Percentage A-R. of Year ,15 0-, ,

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17 STATISTICS FOR PERSONS 20 TO 24 YEARS OLD CRASH (Excluding 1977) No. A-R No. N-A-R Year 3,591 20, ,409 21, ,511 24, ,540 27, ,773* 22,559** ,687* 33, ,881" 40, ,238* 36, ,764* 30,791"* 1980 That A-R Were A-R i i, " 23.89* 14.33* 24.38* 12.25" 25.74* 12.75" 26.46* 14.55" 25.55* " 26.66* 17.10" Significantly higher than expected given previous trends * Significantly lower ** Table A-3 of Percentage of All Percentage 3,486 27, ,933** ,292" 30,511"*

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19 STATISTICS.FOR PERSONS 25 YEARS AND OLDER CRASH (EXCLUDING 1977) No. A-R No =. N-A-R Year Percentage of A-R 8,964 66, ,103 69, ,344 75,725 I ,890 82,149 i ,781 82, ,739 73,908.**,, i 47 ** , 90"* 6.3,016"* i i * i975" 10, , ,* ,792" 121,418" ** ,971" 113, " 55.01"* ,169 i00,751"* i0.77* ** 1980 higher than expected given previous trends Significantly lower Significantly TABLE A-4 All Percentage of That. Were A-R , ,349"* I0.74* 52.67

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