Inside the Investor s Brain: The Power of Mind Over Money
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1 Inside the Investor s Brain: The Power of Mind Over Money AAII Silicon Valley Sunnyvale, CA January 9, 2010 Richard L. Peterson, M.D. Managing Director MarketPsy Capital LLC (Asset Management) MarketPsych LLC (Investor Training)
2 Clinical Stories Janet Commodities Trader Grinding losses Stress Stuck Thinking Ramon Portfolio Manager Relationship difficulties Performance dropped by half Sadness and Overtrading 2
3 Lessons Deep emotions drive our financial decisions. We are usually unaware of these emotions. There are tools we can use to improve our emotional self-awareness and performance. Observing (and investing against) group emotion can improve our own results. 3
4 Emotions are Usually Unconscious EXPERIMENT (Trujillo et al, 2007) People shown fearful or angry faces took less risk in a gambling experiment. Happy face increased risk-taking. Afterwards subjects denied that the faces had affected their judgment. Due to denial they could never learn to correct for the effect. So what can we do about this?
5 Animal Spirits Length of night, temperature, sunshine, and magnetism affect mood and behavior Length of night, temperature, sunshine, and magnetism affect mood and behavior. Sunshine and cloud cover (Hirshleifer The Below Measurably Predict Stock Prices: and Shumway, 2001) Sunshine and cloud cover Daylight savings time and length of night (Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, 2003) Daylight savings time and length of night Temperature (Cao and Wei, 2002) Temperature Lunar Effects (Yuan, Zheng and Zhu, 2001) Lunar Effects Wind Speed & Cloud Cover (Chicago) (Limpaphayom, Locke, & Sarajoti, 2007) Wind Speed & Cloud Cover Geomagnetic Storms (Robotti & Krivelyova, 2004) Geomagnetic Storms 5 Copyright 2007 Richard Peterson
6 What Are The Most Expensive Psychological Investment Mistakes? 6 Holding Losers Too Long (to avoid pain). Rogue Traders ALL do this. Chasing Hot Performers (excitement). Lacking Risk Management (overconfidence). Lack of stops or other sell discipline. Lack of deliberate or scaled buying. Cutting Winners Short (anxiety). These are all a result of emotional impulses overriding self-discipline.
7 Warren Buffett says: "Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.
8 The Brain The brain s structure explains most market cycles. Frontal Cortex Executive function Judgment Subcortex: Limbic system Emotions Drives Desires X-ray view through the brain 8
9 FRONTAL CORTEX EXECUTIVE FUNCTION PLANNING IMPULSE-CONTROL
10
11 REWARD SYSTEM EXCITED MOTIVATION CONFIDENCE DESIRE DOPAMINE
12 TAKING TOO MUCH RISK Most investors take too much risk when their reward systems are highly activated. Recent profits, expecting large gains, and seeing others profit excessively activates the reward system Feelings of confidence, satisfaction, and desire Kuhnen and Knutson, 2005.
13 LOSS AVOIDANCE SYSTEM THREAT PERCEPTION MEMORIES OF LOSS FEAR SEROTONIN
14
15 TAKING TOO LITTLE RISK Investors take too little risk when loss system activated (leaving money on the table) Activated by recent losses or potential losses Feelings of disgust, fear, pain, and withdrawal Kuhnen and Knutson, 2005.
16 GENES AND PERSONALITY GENES Serotonin transporter 5- HTTLPR (s/s allele) Dopamine D4 receptor (7-repeat allele carriers) ABNORMAL VARIANT Anxiety and depression sensitivity, and take 28% less investment risk. Novelty and sensation seeking, and take 25% more investment risk. Kuhnen and Chiao, PERSONALITY TRAIT Low Emotional Stability (Neuroticism) High Extraversion
17 Stress System: Traders Age in Dog- Years
18 Warren Buffett says: "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
19 Sometimes We Can Be TOO Rational NASDAQ WEEKLY CHART Irrational Exuberance Speech
20 Being Rational in an Irrational Market There is a psychological cycle in most securities. This cycle is driven by investors reactions to fundamentals, prices, and emotions (a feedback loop). By understanding how the mind works, you can better position yourself in the cycle. 20
21 The Psychological Cycle STOCK PRICE Uncertainty Rational Followers Greed Greed TIME (about 7 years) Cognitive Discord Rational Followers Panic
22 LANGUAGE IN THE NEWS Green Shoots Bull market Media stimulates emotion & thus acts on our common biology. Can it drive investment behavior and cycles?
23 The MarketPsy Process 1) Identify Online Financial Text 2) Download Text 3) Identify Predictive Sentiment in Text 4) Generate Trading Signals CVX 2.12 BUY MO 3.82 SELL T 7.12 HOLD Other Sources 23
24 The MarketPsych Fear Index 24 Copyright 2007 Richard Berman, D. Fear the Roller Coaster? Embrace Peterson it. Wall Street Journal, C1, September 11, 2007.
25 25 Fear Index vs. SPY Jan 2007 to Jan 2010
26 26 Fear Index vs. SPY 1996 to 2010
27 Trade Example: Buying American Airlines (AMR) During the Swine Flu Scare. I. 4/25/09: WHO director declares a formal public health emergency of international concern regarding the Swine Flu. II. Anxiety rises in AMR online stock message boards about reduced travel (see grey line). III. 4/27/09: WHO raises pandemic alert level to Phase 4. IV. 4/30/09: MarketPsy bought AMR at $4.81/share, V. 5/6/09: MarketPsy sold AMR at $5.95/share. Page 20
28 Managing the Mind 28
29 Re-Training Re-Training Your Your Brain: Brain: Neuroplasticity Neuroplasticity
30 Re-Training Your Brain: Neural Neuroplasticity Pathways I took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. Robert Frost, The Road Not Taken
31 Acute: Animal Spirits Remember the big picture. Length of night, temperature, sunshine, and magnetism affect mood and behavior Get centered in faith / spirituality / mystery. Use deep breathing for relaxation (1-2-3). Sunshine and cloud cover (Hirshleifer and Shumway, 2001) Tell jokes, play games, watch a comedy. Daylight savings time and length of Exercise / muscle relaxation. night (Kamstra, Kramer and Levi, 2003) Take action to stop the stressor. Temperature (Cao and Wei, 2002) Chronic: Lunar Effects (Yuan, Zheng and Zhu, 2001) Wind Speed & Cloud Cover (Chicago) (Limpaphayom, Locke, & Sarajoti, 2007) Geomagnetic Storms (Robotti & Krivelyova, 2004) Managing Stress Remove the stressor. Take a long vacation. Build healthy habits: play, exercise, & diet. 31 Copyright 2007 Richard Peterson
32 Letting go.
33 Take time to reflect daily.
34 Daily Gratitude List Remember, things could always be worse.
35 TMI: Too Much Information Limit your information input: How many data points do you really need to make a stock purchase or sale decision? 4? The financial media unconsciously biases you. Use a workable discipline with risk management controls that are pre-set. During stress you can t inhibit impulses adequately. Your risk management should be rule-based and easily enforced. 35
36 Becoming a Switch-Thinker Observe how your feelings drive your thoughts. Know your personality and propensities. Learn to re-frame crisis as opportunity and be suspicious of extreme optimism and pessimism. Use a workable discipline. Use a coach or mentor to keep you on track: 36 Your emotional shock absorber. Keeps you centered on your long term plan. Helps you remain accountable to yourself. Re-center on your long-term goals and dreams when times are tough.
37 Keep Healthy Routines
38 Summary Two brain systems dominate our thoughts and feelings: reward approach and loss avoidance. Personality and genetic tests correlate with these systems baselines. The financial and media information we absorb activates these two brain systems. High activations lead to investment mistakes. Stress reduces impulse-control. We need a workable strategy, with enforcement, to prevent mistakes.
39 More Information: Sign-Up in back of room Book: Inside the Investor s Brain (Richard Peterson) Coaching (Richard Friesen) and Genetic Testing RFriesen@MarketPsych.com Free Investor Self-Tests: Market Psychological Intelligence to launch March 09 Free Research and Trading Recommendations: Asset Management:
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