S.Monnier M.Thibaudon RNSA, Brussieu, France
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1 S.Monnier M.Thibaudon RNSA, Brussieu, France
2 Aerobiology: a multidisciplinary approach Dispersion & Emission Transportation Deposition Source Impact Receiver 2
3 Contents RNSA presentation Pollen exposure measurement Health impact measurement Information and prevention Pollen : Health indicator of climate change The impact of global warming on vegetation Conclusions
4 RNSA presentation RNSA is the French aerobiology network in charge of the analysis of the content of the air in biological particles, and to give some information about their health impact. The coordination center and training RNSA is located at Brussieu (69) in the heart of the Monts du Lyonnais, 40 km west of Lyon. 4
5 Pollen stations in Europe in 2014
6 Pollen stations in France in stations + 10 during ragweed pollination
7 Pollen exposure measurement : pollen trap Breathing orifice ( air/min (10 l. Horizontal reading Adhesive band on the drum 1st day 2 nd day etc... 1h = 2mm Measurements were made with Hirst-type pollen traps.
8 Pollen exposure measurement : analysis Collection of the drum band Dividing the band into daily sections 1 slide by day Daily amounts (grains/m 3 ) Counting with a vocal recognition system
9 Health impact measurement rhinite 90% conjonctivite 75% urticaire et eczéma 20% trachéite, asthme 50%
10 Health impact : clinical index «Mean» conjunctivitis: «Strong» rhinitis: «Weak» cough: «Mean» asthma: «Null» cutaneous signs: Clinical index 2 x 1 = 2 3 x 2 = 6 1 x 1 = 1 2 x 1 = 2 0 x 1 = 0 11 / 18 Clinical index for: - a doctor - a town - a region - the country
11 clinical index pollen index Clinical index - Results Clinical index and pollen index for France pollen index clinical index N week 0
12 Clinical Index Health impact : clinical index Information of the clinical season Clinical data - France January February March April May June July August September Week
13 Health impact : PHD Scores symptoms PHD = Pollen Hayfever Diary PHD = A recording daily symptoms in patients allergic to correlate exposure and health impact. PHD interests : - Establish scores symptoms arising directly from the patient felt. - Establish individual levels of sensitivity of patients and averages of health impact of the exposure to ragweed pollens on an area.
14 Correlation exposure and health impact
15 Square root of daily birch concentrations PHD Scores symptoms Study Results Birch 16 Birch pollen according to score overall symptoms à y = 0,8943x + 1,4192 R² = 0, Birch 4 Linéaire (Birch) Score Overall Symptoms Birch pollens and score-symptom in France ( )
16 Information and prevention Pollinic and mould bulletins Vigilance map
17 Information and prevention Map of the allergic risk in France for Birch pollen
18 Pollen : Health indicator of climate change Phases phénologiques des arbres Source : GLOBE Suisse 18
19 Evolution du nombre de jours nécessaires à la maturation des bourgeons et des chatons de bouleau au fil des années Bourgeons non formés et chatons serrés Chilling : Accumulation de froid Forcing : Accumulation de chaud Bourgeons éclatés et chatons mûrs Nombre total de jours : Chilling + Forcing Theorique Nombre total de jours : Chilling + Forcing Jusqu'en 2004 : Automne et hiver doux Nombre total de jours : Chilling + Forcing Depuis 2004 : Automne / début de l'hiver plus doux Fin de l'hiver froid Source : RNSA 19
20 Exemple of the chilling and forcing effect over the beginning of pollination : 21-avr. 16-avr. 11-avr. 06-avr. 01-avr. 27-mars Beginning of birch pollination at Strasbourg from 1988 to 2014 For birch the criterion marking the start of the pollen season is the date on which a daily average concentration of 30 grains / m³ / day is reached for the first time. This limit is considered in many countries as the trigger allergic symptoms in most people concerned. 22-mars 17-mars 12-mars Début de la pollinisation du Bouleau à Strasbourg de 1988 à 2014 Poly. (Début de la pollinisation du Bouleau à Strasbourg de 1988 à 2014) 20
21 Study ONERC-RNSA : Pollen : Health indicator of climate change First phase of the study taxon choice: Tree High allergenic potential Representation on a large part of the territory Second phase of the study cities choice: Representation of different climates Areas of birch presence Reliable data Map of France of the distribution of birch pollen 21
22 Study ONERC-RNSA : Pollen : Health indicator of climate change Third phase of the study period choice : The phenological year for birch is from July to June. The birch pollen quantity which are released in March-April depends on the temperatures and weather he has done before, since july of last year. The period Jully-June (year N+1) has been chosen. Pictures of kittens birch in August Pictures of kittens birch in April 22
23
24 The impact of global warming on vegetation 24
25 Evolution of the average temperature in metropolitan France from 1900 to 2013
26 Date of onset of the first sheet of chestnut in Geneva since 1808
27 Theories According biologists : The increase of 1 C in mean annual temperature is equivalent to a translation of plant species 200 km to the north or to a rise up of about 150 m in altitude. Source : Science & Vie,
28 - Species migration from South to North (ragweed, trees, grasses, cypress and oak....). - Forecast: warming of 3.5 C by The area of green oak by 2050 could exceed a line Bordeaux-Saint- Etienne and cross the Loire cross by Theories 2000 Source : INRA 28
29 Theories Common beech (Fagus sylvatica) Source : INRA Today In 2100 The range of beech, by a hundred years, could significantly decreace due to higher summer temperatures and lower rainfall. The same phenomenon could be observed for mountain species: Larix, Abies, Picea... 29
30 Theories Olive tree With a warming of 3.5 C by 2100 the Olive tree could go back to the gates of Luxembourg. Because of the Photoperiod which is an essential element for plants it will certainly 30 never happen
31 Conclusions The consequences of global warming are: - Higher concentrations of pollen - A change in the dates of flowering and pollination - An increase of the duration of the pollen season - An increase in the allergen content of pollen grains - A simulation of the plant growth by the CO2 which causes an increase in the number of pollen grains in the air - A greater impact on health (stronger and more frequent allergenic symptoms) - More people with allergies - A northward shift or elevation of the extension area of some species
32
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