236/250/604/778, NPA 289/365/905, NPA 306/639, NPA 343/613, NPA 403/587/780/825, NPA 450/579, NPA
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1 NPA 236/250/604/778, NPA 289/365/905, NPA 306/639, NPA 343/613, NPA 403/587/780/825, NPA 450/579, NPA 506 and NPA 709 to the Canadian Steering Committee on Numbering (CSCN) Published: Issued by: Canadian Numbering Administrator Leidos Canada Inc. Suresh Khare Queen St. Ottawa, ON K1P 5Y7
2 1. Purpose of R-NRUF In accordance with the Canadian Numbering Resource Utilization (C-NRUF) Guideline (the Guideline), approved by the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) in Telecom Decision CRTC dated 29 April 2015: When an NPA is entering the timeframe for NPA Relief Planning (e.g., within or about 72 months before the Projected Exhaust Date), an initial R-NRUF is conducted to obtain actual and forecast annual data at the Exchange Area level of detail. The purpose of the initial R-NRUF is to validate the Projected Exhaust Date for an exhausting NPA, and to provide the CNA with detailed information to be used to identify a potential Relief Date and to prepare the Initial Planning Document as outlined in the Canadian NPA Relief Planning Guideline. Typically, the initial R-NRUF will utilize Format 2 in Appendix A. In general, the CNA will conduct the initial R-NRUF when needed; however, the CNA should attempt to choose dates for the initial and subsequent R-NRUFs that will coincide with the annual G-NRUF and mid-year R/S-NRUF dates (e.g., as of January 1 and July 1 each year). Subsequent R-NRUFs will be conducted semi-annually in order to monitor CO Code forecast changes prior to implementing relief. These R-NRUFs shall be conducted until three months of when relief is implemented, or until they are replaced by S-NRUFs or J-NRUFs. Based on the January 2018 G-NRUF results, the CNA determined that in addition to NPA 236/250/604/778, NPA 506, and 709, additional NPAs had also entered the 6-year window for relief planning. The additional NPAs are NPA 289/365/905, NPA 306/639, NPA 343/613, NPA 403/587/780/825 and NPA 450/ High Level Summary The results from the May (NPA 306/639) and July 2018 R-NRUFs are quite different from the January 2018 R-NRUF and G-NRUF results due to various Telecommunications Service Providers (TSPs) submitting updated data. The CNA has verified the input from various TSPs and the variance from previous inputs can be rationalized. Page 1
3 Specific changes are listed below: NPA PED from January 2018 NRUF PED from May & July 2018 R-NRUF Change in PED 236/250/604/778 July 2020 March 2020 Advanced 4 months 289/365/905 November 2022 November 2021 Advanced 12 months 306/639 June 2022 September 2022 Delayed 3 months 343/613 February 2024 August 2022 Advanced 18 months 403/587/780/825 September 2022 March 2022 Advanced 6 months 450/579 June 2021 March 2021 Advanced 3 months 506 December 2021 January 2022 Delayed 1 month 709 April 2023 March 2023 Advanced 1 month Page 2
4 NPA 236/250/604/778 NPA 236/250/604/778 - July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - March 2020 NPA 236/250/604/778 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 236/250/604/778 January 2015 G-NRUF 27 March 2015 February /250/604/778 January 2016 G-NRUF 21 March 2016 April /250/604/778 July 2016 R-NRUF 12 October 2016 February /250/604/778 January 2017 R-NRUF 29 March 2017 May /250/604/778 July 2017 R-NRUF 25 September 2017 May /250/604/778 January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 July /250/604/778 July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 March 2020 Page 3
5 NPA 289/365/905 NPA 289/365/905 - July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - November 2021 NPA 289/365/905 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 289/365/905 January 2017 G-NRUF 29 March 2017 September /365/905 July 2017 R-NRUF 25 September 2017 May /365/905 January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 November /365/905 July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 November 2021 Page 4
6 NPA 306/639 NPA 306/639 - May 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - September 2022 NPA 306/639 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 306/639 January 2017 G-NRUF 29 March 2017 July /639 July 2017 R-NRUF 25 September 2017 November /639 January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 June /639 May 2018 R-NRUF 27 July 2018 September 2022 Page 5
7 NPA 343/613 NPA 343/613 - July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - August 2022 NPA 343/613 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 343/613 January 2017 G-NRUF 29 March 2017 April /613 January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 February /613 July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 August 2022 Page 6
8 NPA 403/587/780/825 NPA 403/587/780/825 - July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - March 2022 NPA 403/587/780/825 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 403/587/780/825 January 2017 G-NRUF 29 March 2017 March /587/780/825 July 2017 R-NRUF 25 September 2017 January /587/780/825 January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 September /587/780/825 July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 March 2022 Page 7
9 NPA 450/579 NPA 450/579 - July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - March 2021 NPA 450/579 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 450/579 January 2017 G-NRUF 29 March 2017 June /579 July 2017 R-NRUF 25 September 2017 August January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 June /579 July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 March 2021 Page 8
10 NPA 506 NPA July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - January 2022 NPA 506 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 506 January 2015 G-NRUF 27 March 2015 April January 2016 G-NRUF 21 March2016 February July 2016 R-NRUF 12 October 2016 May January 2017 R-NRUF 29 March 2017 December July 2017 R-NRUF 8 September 2017 November January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 December July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 January 2022 Page 9
11 NPA 709 NPA July 2018 R-NRUF Aggregate Results existing and future CO Codes forecast to be assigned & Projected Exhaust Date - March 2023 NPA 709 Summary of Projected Exhaust Dates NPA Type of C-NRUF Date of Publication Projected Exhaust Date 709 January 2015 G-NRUF 27 March 2015 August January 2016 G-NRUF 21 March 2016 May April 2016 J-NRUF 15 May 2016 March July 2016 J-NRUF 2 September 2016 March October 2016 J-NRUF 5 December 2016 March January 2017 J-NRUF 29 March 2017 August April 2017 J-NRUF 2 June 2017 August July 2017 J-NRUF 5 September 2017 May January 2018 R-NRUF 20 March 2018 April July 2018 R-NRUF 5 September 2018 March 2023 Page 10
12 3. Schedule of Future R-NRUF Activities in this Calendar Year None scheduled. 4. R-NRUF Assumptions The assumptions used for the May 2018 R-NRUF for NPA 306/639 and the July 2018 R-NRUF for NPA 236/250/604/778, NPA 289/365/905, NPA 343/613, NPA 403/587/780/825, NPA 450/579, NPA 506 and NPA 709 are the assumptions that were provided on 1 November 2017 to the CNA by the Canadian Steering Committee on Numbering (CSCN) for conducting the January 2018 NRUF. Item 4 of the 1 November 2017 letter states, in part: Where the CNA believes, based on its analysis of past growth and NRUF forecast data for an NPA, that the six-year forecast average annual growth may not be the best methodology for that NPA for projecting growth beyond the six-year forecast period, the CNA shall seek guidance from CRTC staff and will advise the CSCN of the alternative method used. In this instance, the CNA compared the average forecast growth for the next five years, the median forecast growth for the next five years and the median and average historical growth for the past five years. The lowest number resulting from these calculations was the one used to identify the PED for NPA 236/250/604/778, NPA 289/365/905, NPA 306/639, NPA 343/613, NPA 403/587/780/825, NPA 450/579, NPA 506 and NPA 709 as per the following NPA Future PED Method 236/250/604/778 Use Five Year Median of Growth 289/365/905 Use Historical Average 306/639 Use Five Year Average of Growth 343/613 Use Historical Average 403/587/780/825 Use Five Year Median of Growth 450/579 Use Historical Average 506 Use Historical Average 709 Use Historical Average Page 11
13 5. Summary of Challenges Encountered During the R-NRUF Process For the May 2018 NPA 306/639 R-NRUF, the CNA started contacting individual companies on 4 June 2018 to remind them of the 10 June 2018 due date. Several submission were not made until after 10 June, with the last submission being made on 13 June For the July 2018 R-NRUF, the CNA started contacting individual companies during the first full week of August to remind them of the 7 August 2018 due date. Nevertheless, some R-NRUF submissions were a few days late. Two companies were repeatedly reminded up to 14 August Conclusion In accordance with Section 4 of the Canadian Numbering Resource Utilization (C NRUF) Guideline, the CNA has conducted an assessment, at a total aggregate level, to determine whether the May 2018 NPA 306/639 and the July 2018 R-NRUF results are reasonable. Numbering resource requirements for some Carriers in both the wireless and LEC services have been volatile over the last few years resulting in only moderately accurate short term and long term NRUF submissions. The CNA has endeavoured to mitigate this volatility by distinguishing companies that are establishing a footprint in an NPA from those that already have one. The CNA believes that emerging technology growth has been responsible for a good part of the demand. It is assumed that the introduction of the Canadian Non-Geographic Code Assignment Guideline, will alleviate some of the issues associated with Machine-to-Machine demand but it is difficult to quantify. Some TSPs are applying for non-geographic codes. At this time, based on the data and supporting justifications provided by the various TSPs, the May and July 2018 R-NRUF results for NPA complexes 236/250/604/778, NPA 289/365/905, NPA 306/639, NPA 343/613, NPA 403/587/780/825, NPA 450/579, NPA 506 and NPA 709 are as realistic as they can be. Page 12
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